Daily Reccomendation

No Bet Today


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MESSAGE THOUGHTS


I think you will struggle to find any day's racing with
worse tracks than Brighton - Kempton- Lingfied and
Musselburgh which must be 4 of the most unpleasant
courses to bet on. I can only think of York as worse
so its a very low key day for me. I took the decision
yesterday to put in a short message today and spend
more time on Saturdays racing and we will know soon
if that turned out to be a sensible decision or not.

This is a One race message with the 5.30pm Brighton
the only race I have previewed today. There looked
like other options elsewhere not least the 3pm there
but my choice is now a non runner and there is only
one race that I liked the look of and thats all I have
on a very quiet Friday. The 5.30pm at Brighton is a
low grade 5f Handicap. I like KINIGI at 9/2 each way.

Brighton 5.30

KINIGI 9/2

He is my only bet today. I have decided Not to make
him a reccomendation. My own view of him is that I
would be surprised if he was unplaced. I think 9/2 is a
big price and worth a bet. Personally I am having the
horse in a couple of doubles and trying to use him as
a method of building up money onto a race tomorrow.

Friday
Brighton 5.30
KINIGI 9/2

x

Saturday
Haydock 3.05
Old Borough Cup

RED CADEAUX 11/2
KANSAI SPIRIT 11/2

2 Win Doubles


I will talk more about the 3.05 at Haydock tomorrow
but I think RED CADEAUX and KANSAI SPIRIT are
the best options at this stage. I am having 2 win doubles
on KINIGI with each of these 2 horses. Should KINIGI
win and thats hopefully the plan then when I wake up
tomorrow my double will mean I am on the two main
fancied runners in the Old Borough Cup at 33/1 each.

Thats why I am playing it this way today. If you can't
be bothered with that options then KINIGI each way is
my suggested bet but personally I plan to try for a bigger
payout and a Friday/Saturday win double aiming for 33/1


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REVIEW OF LAST MESSAGE

Not a strong message yesterday. Overall the choices in the
message underperformed bar one or two. The reccomended
bet REEL BUDDY STAR finished 2nd. There was always a
risk he would bump into something less exposed and better
handicapped and that's what happened. Overall he ran a big
race and had every chance. I think given his price I made a
good enough case for him to be worth a bet. I was surprised
he went off so short but there were early prices and if there was a mistake it wasn't in going with him it was failing to be on him each way. Overally happy with his run and he tried his best to give us a decent priced winner and only just failed.


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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


BRIGHTON 5.30

Ben Shaws Handicap (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-52) 5f59y

5/2 Annia Galeria, 7/2 Madam Isshe, 4/1 Kinigi, 9/2 If Only
9/1 Cane Cat, 10/1 Northern Genes, 20/1 Rubbinghouse Com
33/1 Louie´s Lad, 33/1 Spring Horizon.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-58 rated horses
* August and September have 126 similar races
* Thats 126 races at 5f and extended 5f races in Class 6-7

NEGATIVES


* I am interested in the record of 3yo fillies
* Fillies aged 3 have a less than impressive 8-248 record
* Those with 13 or more career runs were just 1-82
* ANNIA GALERIA fails that and comes from a 3yo handicap
* Fillies from 3yo handicaps were 3-84
* Those with 13 or more runs doing this were 0-36
* ANNIA GALERIA has had 23 runs and is exposed
* No 3yo filly came from a 5f race like her with 13 + runs
* She doesnt fit the profile of any of the 126 winners
* She has a chance on her last run but she is opposable
* MADAM ISSHE is a 3yo filly as well
* I dont like her draw in stall 1
* I looked at all 5f handicaps here with 9 + runners
* I went back to 2004 and found 54 of these races
* Stall 1 had a 1-52 record the worst stall of all
* MADAM ISSHE has a poor profile as a 3yo filly
* Those like her winning last time were 0-12
* Those running within 7 days had a 0-33 record
* We know Fillies from 3yo handicaps were 3-84
* All 3 winners had ran in better class than she has ever done
* Those like her with under 9 runs that year were 0-66
* MADAM ISSHE has only had 4 runs that year
* I think she will find it hard to win again
* CANE CAT is the other 3 year old filly
* She has been absent 263 days
* No filly of any age won this first time out
* RUBBINGHOUSE COM has a weak profile
* He only has 3 runs and has already been in a claimer
* No similar horse won and he has nothing to reccomend him
* NORTHERN GENES has a poor profile
* Not well raced this year and with an absence
* No 4 year old had that profile in 126 races
* He also has to drop from an 8f race to a 5f race
* No horse aged 4 or more managed that in 126 races
* NORTHERN GENES has been gambled which is interesting
* Somebody clearly thinks he needs this drop in distance
* He may well win but statistically there are problems
* I have looked at every 5f handicap ever run since 1990
* There are 3438 races at any time of year and any class
* I looked at Unexposed 4 year olds with under 21 career starts
* Those that came from 8f or more were 0-100
* He might win but no horse with his profile has done yet
* SPRING HORIZON has a weak profile
* No filly like her was beaten as far as her last time
* All 4 of her runs this year were heavy defeats
* SPRING HORIZON has nothing to reccomend her
* LOUIE´S LAD is in the same position
* He has been hammered on all his recent starts

SHORTLIST

IF ONLY
KINIGI

* IF ONLY has a shaky profile
* He is a 4yo from a claimer and these types are 1-36
* That winner had a recent run and 5 runs this year like him
* He had more backclass though and didnt come from 6f
* There isnt a winner like IF ONLY in the 126 races
* I shortlist him as he split some better rated horses last time
* He could be capable of winning off this mark
* KINIGI has this stronger profile though
* KINIGI is a 4yo filly
* Fillies aged 4
* Having 21 + career starts
* No form beyond a Class 4 race
* At least 8 runs this season
* Beaten less than 6 lengths in a handicap last time
* Having won a race before
* Running within a month
* Horses with that profile had a 6-19 record (31.58%)

KINIGI has a solid profile. It's not an outstanding one
but its a lot better than anything else in this race. She
ran well just 4 days ago in 2nd place at Bath. The horse
that finished just behind her (Mushy Peas) came out to
win yesterday. The drop to 5f is an issue but he was up
at the front all the way last time and this is only 102
yards shorter so I don't see a big problem. I find it hard
to see 3 horses beating him and I felt KINIGI was best.

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