No Account Bet


Today's message is an extra one as the Bank Holiday
cards were poor and we were not busy yesterday. It
picks out a few races at all 3 flat meetings today with
Newcastle to start with then Bath and then Catterick.

Sometimes the angles lead you to certain areas you
don't want to be in and to conclusions you know are
unsafe and they have done a bit of that today with a
lot of decent profiles either unproven on grass or not
certain to be running well enough. I had one option.

I really fancy Green Agenda in the 3.10 and did think
about a Bet. I was prepared to overlook the fact he'd
not ran as well last time as I would have liked. I felt
there were some risks worth taking there but sadly it
is a decision taken away from me now. I had a strong
negative in the race which made the race interesting
for me but that horse is now a non runner which has
shortened Green Agenda's price and more importantly
killed the race for an each way bet as just 7 run now.
He is worth a win bet but not as an account bet. I'll
let the day go by without an account bet.


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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


Nothing doing yesterday on the Bank Holiday and
todays message will hopefully make up for a quieter
day yesterday. Picked a few races out and overall a
mixture of positives and negatives to take from a day
that I felt was pretty tough with difficult frames.



NEWCASTLE

Not a lot of point having a guess in the opening race
full of unraced horses. I was not that impressed with
my angles in the 2.40om either. I dont think I have as
good a collection of negatives as I would need to be
confident of gettin the race right. Northside Prince is
weak aged 4 with a heavy defeat last time over 8f and
I wouldn't want him. Madamlily did not really appeal
as a mare first time out. Nakoma was not like anything
winning a similar race. Amazing King may have been
absent too long. Duty Free - Lava Steps - Starbougg
all look weak. Bottom line is I could give a couple of
horses that have reasonable profiles but they all fail
one or two angles and none look safe. As an example
Destinys Dream comes out well but no horses like her
won with a recent run. Possibly BROCKFIELD might
be the sensible option as a lightly raced 4 year old as
he could have more improvement than most but there
must be a stamina doubt about him with and I do not
see enough promise in his pedigree. Because of that
I will go with DESTINYS DREAM with her recent run.



NEWCASTLE 3.10

Northern Grill One Handicap (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-75) 7f

11/4 Green Agenda, 3/1 Inter Vision, 7/2 Celtic Lynn,
5/1 Game Lad, 8/1 Whatyouwoodwishfor, 14/1 Big Whitfield,
20/1 Mozayada, 25/1 Classic Descent.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-74 rated horses
* Newcastle has had 6 similar races in May
* There has been 172 similar races elsewhere

The Newcastle 6 races are unsafe as there are not that
many of them but it is worth bearing in mind that All 6
winners had a very similar profile. They were all horses
aged 4 and all were unexposed. The unexposed 4 year
olds were 6-44 in these races. None of these had just
one run this season. If that happens again then one of
GREEN AGENDA or WHATYOUWOODWISHFOR will
win. Best to look at the 172 similar races as well.

* INTERVISION comes from a 5f race to a 7f race
* Thats hard especially for a 10 year old
* Especially for a horse with just 1 run this year
* There were 4 winners in 172 races coming from 5f
* Only 1 was exposed (1-33)
* None were aged more than 7 years old
* None ran within the past week as he does
* Since 1992 there has been 3760 handicaps at 7f
* Thats 3760 races any time of year any track any class
* 51 of the 3760 winners came from a 5f handicap
* Those aged 8 or more were 0-73
* INTER VISION is 10 and has a tough task
* BIG WHITFIELD has 1 run this year over 8f
* There were 6 winners doing that but none had 4 runs
* They all had more experience
* Those like him aged 4 were only 1-62 anyway
* Hammered last time he didnt do enough last time
* MOZAYADA is an exposed mare well beaten last time
* I couldnt find a winner like her and see her as unsafe
* CLASSIC DESCENT looks outclassed
* CELTIC LYNN won this race first time out last year
* She tries to do the same this year
* This year she is older (5) which makes a difference
* Mares absent 7 months or more struggled in 172 races
* They had a 1-50 record and she was that winner last year
* I looked at all handicaps between 5f and 10f in May
* Older mares absent 7 months or more struggled
* Those without form in Class 2 or better were 1-89
* It was soft ground when she won last years race
* This is quicker than she is proven on as well
* I dont see a strong case for CELTIC LYNN this year
* GAME LAD is fine statistically and a big runner
* He also looks well handicapped
* The ground is quicker than he likes though
* All his wins have come in June and later each year
* You can also argue he hardly ran that well 3 days ago
* WHATYOUWOODWISHFOR has a complicated profile
* I looked at his carefully and he is just about a positive
* He has never won on Grass yet (0-10)
* His sire does have a better record with his sand runners
*All his turf runs have been races he was well beaten in
* His draw is not great even in a small field
* Stall 1 is probably the worst draw in the race
* Since 2003 Newcastle have had 19 handicaps
* Thats 19 handicaps with 8-9-10 runners
* Stalls 1-2-3-4 had a 1-60 record in these races
* Thats a pretty damming draw stat for a small field
* Dont forget that record is only in 8-9-10 size fields
* None of the winners were drawn 1 as he is

SELECTION

GREEN AGENDA looks best to me. At the start of
the preview he came out as identical to all 6 winners
of Newcastle handicaps like this. His profile is just
as good as anything else in this race. He is also well
handicapped at the moment. There is a downside of
course. He has not been running that well. He has 2
runs this year. He probably wasnt fit on his debut. I
think his last race at Southwell may well have been
needed as well but he didnt look a horse about to
win there. He should improve though and he has a
pair of blinkers today for the first time which may or
may not help. I cant be sure what sort of performance
he puts in today but I like his profile more than any
other horse and there are some good negatives in the
race as well. He is risky but I think he can bounce back
to form on this ground with 2 recent runs behind him.



I dont want to oppose KRONFUL in the 3.40pm maiden
and as the next two races are tough 3yo handicaps it's
best to leave them alone and I dont feel confident there.




NEWCASTLE 5.10

LA Taxis Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-60) 7f

2/1 Eye For The Girls, 9/4 Fathey, 6/1 Imperial Djay,
6/1 Pipers Piping, 14/1 King´s Sabre, 14/1 Papa´s Princess
16/1 Northgate Lodge, 25/1 Cool Art, 25/1 Loyal Knight.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-59 rated horses
* There has been 37 similar races in May

I don't fancy PIPERS PIPING coming from a 5f race. I
feel LOYAL KNIGHT is too far out of form and the big
absence NORTHGATE LODGE has is offputting. If you
look at fillies none won first time out in these races so I
dont want PAPA´S PRINCESS the only filly. Exposed 4
year olds like KING'S SABRE won 2 races but those like
him from 7f or less were 0-33 and he has a poor draw and
a 0-26 career record. I looked at 4 year olds with 1 run in
that season and found a weak 2-49 record. Those with 13
or more runs were 0-26. COOL ART fails that and none of
the winners came from a 6f claimer anyway. FATHEY also
fails that with 1 run this year and no 4 year old like him in
these races dropped in trip without 3 runs that season. It
worries me EYE FOR THE GIRLS is a 4yo with 1 run this
season. The 2-49 record is not impressive as all 41 trying
since 1999 lost as well. I wouldnt make her a negative but
she doesnt come here with a brilliant profile.Statistically
I thought IMPERIAL DJAY had the safest profile but it is
fair to say he could be better on sand and he is hard to win with. Ruth Carr has only had him for 5 runs and has won with him and given his turf runs were for inferior stables and given he is 9/1 I'd risk him despite a sand biased look to his form.

Selection - IMPERIAL DJAY



NEWCASTLE 5.40

LA Taxis Handicap (Div II) (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-60) 7f

3/1 Guildenstern, 9/2 Desert Hunter, 9/2 Louisiade,
5/1 Dhhamaan, 8/1 Angle Of Attack, 8/1 Fulford,
16/1 Eyes Like A Hawk, 20/1 Cross Of Lorraine
20/1 Fyodorovich, 50/1 Aquapark.

This is the second division of the 5.10pm handicap. I see
FYODOROVICH and AQUAPARK as negatives. There is
just one filly and EYES LIKE A HAWK looks to have too
much to do. CROSS OF LORRAINE has been absent too
long for a horse with limited backclass. I feel the same as
well about DESERT HUNTER. I don't like horses from 5f
so ANGLE OF ATTACK has to go. This should be a race
between 4 horses. FULFORD is a mild positive without a
brilliant profile. DHHAMAAN has to prove he can score
on Turf which is a doubt. LOUISIADE drops in trip and
although I cant find an 8 year old doing that he has to be
a positive. GUILDENSTERN is also shortlistable much as
he is used to running on the sand. I think one of those 4
horses will win but none are safe. I think I would prefer
an each way bet on LOUISIADE but its a messy race.

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B A T H

Very tough card at Bath today. Not many races I can
even attempt to do with some hideous fields. There is
little point in doing the maiden at 2.30pm. I would see
Ivan's A Star helped by having 3 runs but not by too
much and being drawn in stall 1 will take some of that
advantage from him. My gut feeling is something will
beat him but with so many unraced horses I'm naked.
Much depends on how good the unraced favourite is.
If you gave me a free bet in the race I would rather bet
Ivan's A Star to place around 4/6 as I think he probably
will but I'm not convinced he'll be good enough to win.



The seller at 3pm does not offer much evidence either.
I would argue that Crazy In Love and Joyously have
been beaten too far last time out. I think the strongest
chances are Bobby Smith and Stunning In Purple but
given the choice the sex allowance is important in the
lowest grade and that gives STUNNING IN PURPLE
a slight edge in my view but it's not a massive one.



The next two races are massive field 3yo handicaps so
bailing out there with no realistic hope of going close
in these races. Will keep an eye out for any advantage
from the draw. I'd expect the very low drawn horses to
struggle based on recent results over a mile here.


BATH 4.30

Crabbies Alcoholic Ginger Beer Fillies´ Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-75) 1m5y

4/1 Evening Sunset, 5/1 My Best Bet, 11/2 Make Amends
11/2 Steel Free, 13/2 Perfect Class, 7/1 Very Well Red
12/1 Jewelled, 14/1 Catalan Bay, 16/1 Welsh Anthem
20/1 Foxtrot Alpha, 100/1 Devon Diva.

The 4.30pm is a Fillies Handicap over a Mile. There are
just 26 fillies races like this in May so not a great sample size. I'd avoid horses from maidens like DENTON DIVA. I would oppose CATALAN BAY who has the worst of
the draw. Seasonal debutants struggle. There were only
3 of these. Horses aged 4 running first time out were 0-31
something WELSH ANTHEM and FOXTROT ALPHA have to overcome. There were 23 winners that had raced that season but none of these were absent more than 7 weeks. It takes out PERFECT CLASS with a nasty 80 day absence and step up in trip. MY BEST BET also has to overcome a difficult absence. MAKE AMENDS has no appeal coming down from a 12f race something none of the 26 winners did that year. I looked at horses with one run this season. The vast majority were 3 year olds. The record of older horses aged 4 or more with one run this season was just 1-43. None of these horses were aged 4 and none came from 7f so STEEL FREE looks to have a few cracks in his profile. The 26 winners of these races were all aged 3-4-5 and horses aged 6 or more were 0-24 something VERY WELL RED has to overcome. Thats a worry but I would shortlist her as she is fit and running well. JEWELLED would make my top 3 in the race and I would finish the shortlist with EVENING SUNSET. The 3 strongest runners in this race for me are in this order -

EVENING SUNSET -JEWELLED - VERY WELL RED. I
just prefer EVENING SUNSET in this race.


BATH 5.00

Bath Organics Handicap (CLASS 4)
(4yo+ 0-85) 2m1f34y

3/1 Callisto Moon, 7/2 Benedict Spirit, 4/1 Baddam,
8/1 Calculating, 8/1 Rare Ruby , 12/1 Wightgold.

This is a 17f Handicap and there are only 17 of these
races at this time of year of which 9 were this race at
Bath. There are 241 of these races all year round and
its interesting that only 6 of the 241 winners came from
11f or shorter and none were exposed and none had a
recent run so BENEDICT SPIRIT looks to have far too
much to prove running over 10f just 3 days ago. I see
BADDAM as unlikely to be fit as an 8 year old who's
had just 1 run since last October when hammered over
hurdles. If you take the 13 races you find 4 year olds
had a weak 1-44 record. None of these were fillies and
having looked at all 2m Handicap results as well there
is a miserable record for 4yo fillies like WIGHTGOLD
with just 1 run this season and I would oppose her.
May has seen 109 handicaps at 2m and more and the
record of seasonal debutant mares like RARE RUBY
is 4-52. All 4 winners were younger than her and they
also had more backclass as well and as none managed
to win over this far I'd oppose her. CALCULATING is
shortlisted as he loves a small field and has won before
on turf but you would imagine he'd prefer the sand. I
see CALLISTOO MOON as most likely winner as long
as the ground does not go soft. He is not thrown in at
the moment and has a stiff mark but he loves it here
and is fit and running well.




BATH 5.30

Elite Telecom Handicap (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-65) 5f11y

5/1 Titus Gent, 11/2 Desert Strike, 7/1 Mr Funshine,
10/1 West Leake, 12/1 Financial Times, 12/1 Mazzola,
12/1 Musical Bridge, 12/1 Pocket´s Pick, 12/1 Short Cut
14/1 Captain Kallis, Fromsong, 14/1 Tune Up The Band
16/1 Desert Pride, 20/1 Avrilo, 20/1 What Katie Did
33/1 Blessed Place, 33/1 Stamford Blue.

Very difficult 5f handicap. Just want to narrow it down
as best I can. Since 1993 May has seen 106 or these 5f
sprints in low grade. Horses aged 9 or more were 1-126
in these races so I would be wary of older horses. That
takes out BLESSED PLACE, FROMSONG and seasonal
debutant STAMFORD BLUE. I'd ignore AVRILO as she
is a filly first time out. I'd be wary of all horses drawn in stalls 1-2-3-4. Since 2003 Bath' s had 22 handicaps with
12 or more runners and horses drawn 1-2-3-4 had a 1-85
record. SHORT CUT is out drawn 1 and down from 7f as
well. FINANCIAL TIMES is out drawn 3 with no grass
form. POCKET´S PICK is out drawn low. Horses from a
maidens were 0-50 so TUNE UP THE BAND looks like
a horse to avoid. WHAT KATIE DID looks too far out
of form. If you take 4 year old males that have had one
run this season you find a 1-49 record . None of them
came from 5f races and none were exposed so I would
be against MUSICAL BRIDGE and MAZZOLA. I do
not like DESERT PRIDE's profile from a classified race
without any backclass. WEST LEAKE does not appeal
and I can't find a similar winner. I'd shortlist 4 horses.

TITUS GENT -DESERT STRIKE
CAPTAIN KALLIS -MR FUNSHINE

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C A T T E R I C K



Not a great deal to work with at Catterick this evening.
The 6pm 2yo maiden is probably best left to a horse in
form with a recent run and FIRST CLASS FAVOUR did
look the winner unless there is abnormal improvement
from one of the other horses in the race.



I didnt like the Claimer at 6.30pm as there are few of these races at this time of year so I have to work from a smaller sample size than usual and all the best horses in the race had absences which makes it impossible to know just how fit they are. My gut feeling would be that SLIP is the class horse and they want him sold and have booked J Spencer to get the win out of him. I suspect he will win but there is not going to be any strong profile with so many absences.



The 7pm is a Handicap over 7f. There are 193 similar races
at this time of year. TURN ME ON did win first time out in
2009 but my feeling is he is not handicapped to repeat that. POPPET´S LOVEIN has to go as a 4yo filly first time out as they are 1-61. SMALLJOHN is an exposed 4 year old and I found 13 winners like that but they all ran within a month and he has been absent 54 days. AVONTUUR is short on
backclass for an 8 year old and not well handicapped and
I don't see him as a next time out winner. I Would oppose
these horses. I don't see an outstanding profile from the
others but I think one of these will win -

CORNUS
GLENMUIR
EZDEYAAD

EZDEYAAD probably has the best of the profiles and is
the most likely winner for me but there is half a chance that Chester this week is his main target so I wouldnt want to commit to him from his stable when there could be a chance this is an afterthought. CORNUS and GLENMUIR are ok and respected as potential winners. There has been a big
market move on GLENMUIR and thats interesting. It may
be worth going with him with that confidence behind him.
Only 7 runners so a win bet on GLENMUIR the best risk.


The maiden at 8pm looks a match. I dont see any reason
to prefer one over the other. TESSLAM is down in trip
and DHERGHAAM up in distance. TESSLAM probably
has the better chance but DHERGHAAM is far better
value and I will side with him. If he went to 7/2 or bigger
it wouldnt be the worst each way bet today.


The last race at 8.30pm is a 5f handicap. There are many
that can be ruled out here. Three days ago I had an each
way account bet on LUCKY ART. He led all the way and
was beaten on the line at a fair price. I would be reluctant to oppose him here. I certainly prefer him to Micky Mac who has nothing in the way of backclass. I dont like the profiles of HITCHES DUBAI - SPEEDY SENORITA or
CARIBBEAN CORAL. Seasonal debutant 4 year olds in
these races are 1-136 so ANGELO POLIZIANO has to be
opposed. I think I Would stay with LUCKY ART. There
is the matter of stall 10 to overcome but should that be a
problem ? Look at the last 4 handicaps here at 5f with at
least 7 runners and you find 4 winners drawn 10-2-10-14
which hardly suggests stall 10 is a problem. My selection
would have to be LUCKY ART.

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