No Account Bet

Depressing weather. Carlisle is abandoned. I have
done most races at Wolverhampton and Lingfield.
Most of the detail and time was put into the card
at Wolverhampton but that was probably a poor
idea as that is a really hard confusing card that I
have not found any inspiration for. Lingfield isnt
a lot better. It's a very tough opening to the week.

I can't see a good profile today so No account bet
on the day. Think we have run into a particularly
difficult Monday so I want to wait for a better bet.
I will have some small interest in my choices both
in the 2.25pm and 4.05 Lingfield but has to be said
It feels a message thats failed on the day.

****************************************************
****************************************************


T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


There was no Racing yesterday because of the weather
so nothing to review. Saturday's message had no bet. I
think the Saturday cards beat me mainly down to all the
inspections. I pulled my horns in and only had a mention
feeling I was vulnerable and as that lost I think it was the right thing to do to avoid a full bet.




WOLVERHAMPTON 2.10

Sponsor A Race At Wolverhampton Amateur Riders´
Handicap (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-52) 1m4f50y

5/1 Amical Risks, 7/1 Bright Sparky, 15/2 Bansha, 15/2 Our Kes 8/1 Barbirolli, 8/1 Go On Ahead, 9/1 Stravita, 11/1 Desert Hawk 12/1 Solo Choice, 14/1 Inn For The Dancer, 14/1 Josiah Bartlett 20/1 Under Fire.

* This is a 12f Handicap for Amateur Riders
* There has been 69 similar races at this time of year

There has been the odd winner with an absence win these
races but those with 9 + runs absent 10 weeks or more had
a 2-104 record and AMICAL RISKS does not really appeal
with a 118 day break. Not when you consider that he has
downgraded stables since his last run and is now trained
by a yard without a winner on the flat before. STRAVITA
is an exposed mare with an absence and looks avoidable.
GO ON AHEAD is out aged 10 and absent 33 days as in all
similar races horses aged 8 or more absent that long were
1-53. BANSHA and JOSIAH BARTLETT look vulnerable
stepping up too far in distance. I looked at all similar races for Amateurs and all jockeys and didnt find a great record from horses doing this. BANSHA also has to prove stamina as well. His sire's record to date is just 1-47 with his runners at 10f and more and 0-17 with his 12f runners so there must be some doubt about him staying this far. I dont want to be with OUR KES a mare from an 8f race. UNDER FIRE doesnt appeal. INN FOR THE DANCER is 0-20 on the flat and has a modest record and doesnt look about to win yet. A recent run will help DESERT HAWK but he has yet to win at this 12f trip. He is a 9 year old now. I have found 5 winners aged 8 or more and they all had at least form in a Class 3 race or better and he hasnt. BARBIROLLI has a recent run and is capable of going well and statistically he isnt too bad but He is ridden by a very inexprienced jockey I presume is his owner and his chance will be reduced because of that. I'd argue SOLO CHOICE has a reasonable profile despite his 0-16 career record. He could go well but I think stamina is a problem for him.

SELECTION

BRIGHT SPARKY probably has the safest all round profile.

****************************************************
****************************************************

WOLVERHAMPTON 2.40

Bet Champions League Football - Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 5) (3yo 0-75) 5f20y

11/4 Lewyn, 7/2 Flaxen Lake, 9/2 Mrs Boss, 11/2 Blue Neptune, 6/1 Duke Of Rainford, 10/1 Micky´s Knock Off, 12/1 Your Gifted.

* This is a 5f handicap for 3 year olds
* There has been 112 similar races at this time of year
* LEWYN is a filly from a 3yo handicap
* I thought she had a questionable profile
* She has been absent over a month
* She has had just 1 run since November
* With No backclass I couldnt find a winner like her
* YOUR GIFTED looks all wrong as a filly from 7f
* No filly managed that in the 112 races
* BLUE NEPTUNE isnt for me from a claimer
* Some winners did that but 24 days off is a problem
* I couldnt find a horse like him winning
* DUKE OF RAINFORD comes with a recent run
* He is 3lbs out of the handicap though
* Up in Class I have by doubts about him
* Wont be easy to win this when wrong at the weights

STRONG PROFILES

* FLAXEN LAKE is worth shortlisting
* Would have liked more than 1 recent run
* I have found 2 winners like him though
* MICKY´S KNOCK OFF has a good profile
* MRS BOSS is a filly from a 5f maiden
* Fillies doing that with 9 + runs and 1-2-3 last time did well
* Those like her with 2 + runs this year had a 2-3 record
* Both winners ran within a week and she doesnt
* I still give her a good chance

Shortlisting 3 horses in a 7 runner race tells me it's
still an open race. I would play it this way round.

Selection - FLAXEN LAKE
Saver - MRS BOSS

****************************************************
****************************************************

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.10

Hotel & Conferencing At Wolverhampton
Selling Stakes (CLASS 6) (4yo+) 1m141y

11/4 Sotik Star, 7/2 Straight Face, 4/1 Shake On It, Geezers Colours 6/1 Fine Ruler, 14/1 Kathleen Kennet, 14/1 Well Of Echoes 33/1 La Diosa, 33/1 Remark, 66/1 Willie Ever.

This is a Selling race over an extended Mile. There has been 112 similar races at this time of year. WELL OF ECHOES has to go as a filly with a break and up from a 6f race. Fillies aged 4 beaten 10 + lengths were 1-82 so LA DIOSA is rejected. Its impossible to fancy a 10yo mare like KATHLEEN KENNET with no previous wins. WILLIE EVER doesnt look fit with one run since last March and well beaten in that. If you look at all exposed horses aged 5 or more coming from Claimers without backclass beyond a Class 4 race before you find a 1-35 record SOTIK STAR has that profile and whilst I wouldnt rule him out it didnt impress me much. REMARK also comes from a claimer
and doesnt have the backclass or experience for me and I feel he is unfit. I dont think GEEZERS COLOURS has a brilliant sort of profile. If you look at exposed horses aged 4-5-6 that come from 7f selling races like him there was only a 1-25 record and whilst he has plenty of backclass that impresses he comes out only as acceptable. I cant find a winner like SHAKE ON IT who was beaten recently. STRAIGHT FACE has an unimpressive profile for me. For an exposed horse up in distance I'd want a
lot more backclass. FINE RULER doesnt have much of that
either and I give him a reasonable chance in this race.

SELECTION

None of these are impressive statistically. I am most
drawn to GEEZERS COLOURS as he has backclass.

****************************************************
****************************************************

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.45

Dine In The Horizons Restaurant
Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5) (3yo+) 1m1f103y

5/2 Mercoliano, 3/1 Heading To First, 4/1 Ancient Times,
9/2 Frameit, 6/1 Danderek, 10/1 Blues Forever, 40/1 Sir Mark 50/1 Mongoose Alert, 100/1 Minimusic.

This is an all aged maiden just short of 10f. There has been 128 similar races at this time of year. I think there are a few that could win a race like this. ANCIENT TIMES though is not for me. He has ran once recently in a maiden over 8f and looks reasonable enough. However I looked at all horses in the 128 races that came from 8f maidens in the past month having had 1 career start and found a 0-16 record. Horses with under 3 runs doing that only had a 1-50 record which suggests to me the step up in trip might be an issue for a lightly raced horse. The only horses to do that were doing it after an absence. DANDEREK may not have the class to give the weight away. MONGOOSE ALERT isnt for me as an 8yo. I would certainly oppose BLUES FOREVER from a 6f maiden. HEADING TO FIRST has a chance. I've found winners like him so he wants watching in the market from a yard who won a maiden last Friday with a seasonal debutant. MERCOLIANO has a good profile. FRAMEIT also looks a possible winner.

SELECTION

Going to take on the favourite and I have 3 options so I
will go with HEADING TO FIRST as he comes from a G1
track.

****************************************************
****************************************************

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.20

Betdaq The Betting Exchange Handicap (Div I)
(CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-65) 1m1f103y

4/1 Matjar, 9/2 Flighty Fellow, 6/1 Barodine, 6/1 King´s Jester 6/1 Mutajaaser, 13/2 Singbella, 8/1 Join Up, 10/1 King´s Icon 14/1 Mighty Mover, 25/1 Josiah Bartlett.

This is a 0-65 handicap over an extended 9f. There has
been 147 similar races at this time of year. Horses who
have ran just 3 times had a miserable 0-47 record and
as maiden runners are poor as well SINGBELLA makes
no appeal as a filly with 3 runs. MIGHTY MOVER may
not be fit aged 8 with just one run since November. It's
asking too much of JOSIAH BARTLETT to win from a
7f race. MUTAJAASER hasn't won yet from only five
career starts. I have found a 4 year old maiden with so
few races but no winner aged 5 or more was a maiden
and lightly raced and without more backclass I think
MUTAJAASER is unsafe. JOIN UP is modest and He
doesnt have a great profile. MATJAR is hard to read
but has a nasty absence for a 7 year old and much as
I have found a couple of horses his age doing it there
have to be doubts. KING´S JESTER is 8 and has been
absent 24 days. Any horse as old as that winning one
of these races without a recent run had backclass in a
much higher grade than he does and he's vulnerable.
FLIGHTY FELLOW has just won but he is now 10 and
in 188 races no horse older than 9 won last time out and
they won again and he looks unsafe as well.

SHORTLIST
I wouldnt rule out BARODINE who is shortlistable.
I would also keep KING´S ICON very much on side.
I dont see a better profile than this pair so I want to
stay with 2 on the shortlist.

SELECTION

KING'S ICON Win Bet 6/1
BARODINE Saver BET 7/1


****************************************************
****************************************************

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.55

Betdaq The Betting Exchange Handicap (Div II)
(CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-65) 1m1f103y

5/2 Granny Mcphee, 3/1 The City Kid, 11/2 Kirstys Lad
7/1 Via Mia, 8/1 The Last Bottle, 10/1 Corrib, 14/1 Coolnaharan 14/1 New Beginning, 25/1 Blackstone Vegas, 33/1 Forced Opinion.

* This is a 0-64 handicap over just short of 10f
* There has been 147 similar races at this time of year
* NEW BEGINNING is avoidable
* I dont like him exposed with 1 run since last April
* CORRIB is an exposed mare aged 7
* Only 1 mare as old as that won a race
* She won very recently and was in better form
* There were 6 winning mares aged 6 or more
* They all finished 1-2-3-4 last time and CORRIB didnt
* Mares aged 6 or more won 6 races
* Without a run in two weeks they were just 1-45
* THE CITY KID fails that as a 7yo mare
* That sole winner had form in a much better grade
* The 6 older mares included 5 with strong backclass
* THE CITY KID hasnt got that and looks vulnerable
* VIA MIA is a 4yo filly coming from a 7f race
* Only 1 filly aged 4 won doing that
* That filly won a handicap within the past 4 days
* VIA MIA only comes from being beaten in a seller
* All fillies from 7f races without a run in a week were 0-28
* VIA MIA has a weak profile for me
* Horses from maidens had a poor 3-127 record
* Those aged 4 or more were 0-35
* THE LAST BOTTLE fails that
* Those from maidens with 9 + runs like him were 1-56
* No horse came from maidens with his absence
* None did from 12f maidens either
* THE LAST BOTTLE has a poor profile
* FORCED OPINION has a long absence
* No horse overcame that when so inexperienced
* None did it without much more backclass as well
* BLACKSTONE VEGAS has a poor profile
* No horse came from 13f or more never mind 16f
* I would be neutral about KIRSTYS LAD
* I have found a couple of similar 8yo winners
* Would have liked a better last run
* Would have liked a more recent run as well
* I would give her a chance though
* COOLNAHARAN is hard to judge aged 10
* I would certainly see him as shortlistable
* GRANNY MCPHEE has a good profile
* 4yo filly but she has a recent run and good run last time

SELECTION

GRANNY MCPHEE

****************************************************
****************************************************

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.25

Free Horse Racing Tips @ bigtips.co.uk
Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5) (3yo+) 7f32y

2/1 Midfielder, 11/4 Jawal, 100/30 West Emirates, 4/1 Hill Of Miller 13/2 Bohemian Melody, 50/1 A Nod And A Wink, Billy Simmonds 100/1 Boxer Shorts, 100/1 Dunfishin.

This is a 7f Maiden for all aged horses. There has been 140
similar races at this time of year. HILL OF MILLER has a weak profile. There were 42 winning 3 year olds that had not raced since their 2 year old season but none had 7 or more runs and surely HILL OF MILLER is overraced as a juvenile with 11 runs. With horses from Nurseries also scoring badly winning just 1 of the 140 races and with him coming from a 5f race I would be opposing him. BOHEMIAN MELODY and JAWAL are unraced 3 year olds which have a 8-93 record so clearly they can and do win so they want respecting. I wouldnt want an unraced 4 year old like WEST EMIRATES. They have a 1-47 record. The big stable runner MIDFIELDER has a reasonable profile but not enough horses like him have tried to get an accurate opinion. I'd stay with the 3yo Colts JAWAL and MIDFIELDER. This would be a guess but JAWAL just shades it.

****************************************************
****************************************************

L I N G F I E L D


LINGFIELD 2.25

Maiden race over a Mile. CALL TO ARMS comes from
a 6f maiden for 2 year olds. There were 3 winners doing
that but none had 3 or more runs and only 1 had ran two
or more times. I wasnt impressed with his profile and see
better options. LINGFIELD BOUND - SHEILA´S BOND
were 3rd and 5th in the same maiden 9 days ago. If you
look at horses with 1 run coming from 8f maidens in the
last fortnight when not beaten more than 6 lengths there
is a 5-13 record. I think they have a much safer profile.
I would prefer the following option.

LINGFIELD BOUND - Win Bet 7/4
SHEILA'S BOND - Place Bet Evens


LINGFIELD 2.55

Tight knit handicap over a mile. I ran every profile and
think WAVERTREE WARRIOR came out as marginally
the strongest runner much as he is hard to win with and
can never be relied upon. I would suggest him each way.

LINGFIELD 3.30

This is a Mile handicap. I wasnt prepared to forgive a 52
length defeat SPINNING BAILIWICK suffered just 5 days
ago. I dont want HALSION CHANCER as an exposed type
who steps up in trip with just 1 run since last September. I couldnt find a similar winner to him. There is not a natural alternative. I would rather JAKE THE SNAKE didnt come from a 6f race and would have prefered a more recent run for BILLBERRY. In the end I felt the best option in what is a tactical race was PRINCE OF THEBES who loves a small field and looks to have as good a chance as any.

LINGFIELD 4.05

There has been 464 similar 6f handicaps at this time of year. Statistically MILLFIELDS DREAMS should not be able to
defy his absence. No horse his aged won absent as long as
that. BOLD RING should also fail as a filly absent 115 days
and not having the backclass required for that absence. I
dont want BOBS DREAMFLIGHT. Statistically he is fine
but his last 3 runs show him finish ahead of only 1 runner
and he doesnt look in form. If you look at horses beaten
10 or more lengths last time in a 6f handicap when racing
within the last month you find a poor record and those 8
or older were 0-32 and HOLLOW JO looks beatable. I see
KINGSGATE CASTLE as shortlistable but would have
liked more than 1 run in the last couple of months. There
is one profile much better than anything else in this race
and thats SHERJAWY who is my choice.


LINGFIELD 4.40

You wouldnt trust many of the runners in this 5f seller
but given all the doubts SIR EDWIN LANDSEER has
the strongest profile for me with a fit profile and plenty
of backclass unlike many others in the race.

LINGFIELD 5.10

STAR CHOICE came out just better than anything else.

****************************************************
****************************************************