No Account Bet


Confidence is an important factor in betting and after
a testing little run I can feel some returning now and a
bit more hunger so I'm looking forward to the next few
days as there is a lot of choice available. Today it isn't
too bad. Dissapointed with Catterick and I think this is
a day to single out 4 horses in 4 races that are backable


Worcester 2.40 - Downward Spiral 5/1
Worcester 3.40 - Tora Petcha 9/1
Chepstow 7.40 - Lindoro 9/4
Chepstow 8.10 - Advertise 7/2


Looking at these options for strong bets they were all a
possible option. ADVERTISE is a horse I probably have
not made a good enough case for. He has a solid enough
profile but I would have liked more negatives against him
and I think he is probably short of strength for a big bet.


LINDORO has your typical Selling race profile that has
scored well in these races. I think he will win but I'm not
convinced 9/4 is a good a price as I would want when he
is 7/2 in the Racing Post. I also see him as a horse that's
ideal for an each way double. I think he's solid enough as
an option but he doesn't really get the juices flowing.


The Worcester bets are harder to judge. When you have
all the Flat racing going on it's impossible to keep ahead
of the National Hunt properly. My 2 Worcester horses
are runners my angles suggest must be backed much as I
would add a disclaimer that betting over the sticks during
the Flat season is risky and I cant be on top of the jumps.


With DOWNWARD SPIRAL its a matter of how far I'm
fooling myself. He has a great profile but thats because he
won last time out but he won a poor race with withdrawals
and that may have flattered him and because of that I'd be
a little more cautious. Before I suggested a strong bet on a
horse like him I'd want a negative for the favourite and I
dont have that so I'd argue he lacks the quality for a bet.


The 3.40 at Worcester is a selling race and much as I don't
know much about TORA PETCHA he does seem to have
a very strong profile. There are two fancied horses ahead
of him in the betting and I see both as vulnerable. In races like this so few can win the race that given he is 9/1 I see him as potentially my best bet of the 4 horses today. It's a lack of knowledge about the horse himself and his own individual characteristics that put me off staking harder.


I wouldnt put anyone off a few small each way doubles on
these 4 horses at decent prices but not sure if thats a good way to spend the daily stakes on these four. I think any of these could win but highlighting one I will go with the best price and TORA PETCHA each way in the selling hurdle. The decision not to stake one as an account bet feels right but I do feel rumblings in the stomach that I get when I know I am close to getting everything right for a full bet.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G



Yesterdays message went pretty much as I expected. I knew
I didnt have much but knew where I was likely to be stronger and that proved to be the case much as the short prices didn't help much on quite an uneventful day. At least they both won.

A Little dissapointed with CATTERICK today and there isnt
a race there I want to preview. I have two races tonight that I like at CHEPSTOW and 2 previews at WORCESTER as well.


N A T I O N A L H U N T


P E R T H


I dont feel safe at Perth mainly because the card has been
saturated as normal by Irish Horses with Irish form so the
angles I have dont apply so well. Impossible to keep up to
date with Irish form so I see its a pointless excercise trying to guess on the card. I thought MILLROCK LADY would
probably win the Mares race at 3.20pm mainly because her
markket danger (Grace N'Favour) comes from a bumper but
there is an unraced Irish horse clearly fancied (Tear Drops) so can you afford to bet her at odds on with unknown rivals. That pretty much sums up the card I cant do much with. It is more interesting at WORCESTER and I have 2 races that I think are worth a good look at today.


WORCESTER


That opening Novice Handicap at 2.10pm is too difficult
or at least too complicated out of season. I would have no
worries about OCCASIONALLY YOURS who looks a solid
runner. Of the two favourites SPARKLING BROOK looks
just a shade more interesting than SPACE TELESCOPE as
I wasn't keen on a 4 year old like the latter carrying large weights. I'd prefer the other 2 runners myself. My guess is OCCASIONALLY YOURS each way.


WORCESTER 2.40

Bet In Running - Betdaq Novices´ Hurdle
(CLASS 4) (4yo+) 3m

13/8 Chesapeake, 3/1 Downward Spiral, 5/1 Knar Mardy
6/1 Marblehead, 10/1 Triggernometry, 16/1 Lighting Larry
25/1 Chouromanesco, 25/1 Diddle´em, 25/1 Karzelle
33/1 She´s Little Don, 50/1 Nishnash, 100/1 Frame And Cover
100/1 Stafford Charlie.

* This is a 3m Novice Hurdle
* There are 252 similar races at this time of year
* There look to be only 5 serious runners in this
* CHESAPEAKE has a 0-10 record from a Maiden Hurdle
* Male Horses from Maiden hurdles with 9 + runs were 1-31
* CHESAPEAKE clearly has a strong form chance
* He is not that strong statistically though
* KNAR MARDY is a Mare from a selling hurdle
* In 252 races horses from sellers were 5-96
* None were aged 5 or 6 years old like her
* All 5 came from Selling Handicaps
* Those that came from sellers that were not handicaps were 0-40
* She may win but no similar mare has won a similar race
* MARBLEHEAD has been Hunter Chasing
* He has his first run for Nigel Twiston Davies
* Impossible to rate but he is not for me
* Horses from all Hunter Chases were 0-22 in these races
* He is therefore not like any winners
* TRIGGERNOMETRY is exposed from a chase
* There were 3 winners like that but 2 won last time
* Well beaten last time he is unimpressive
* Any of the 4 may win but none leap off the page
* DOWNWARD SPIRAL has the best profile
* He is 5 and won a 3m Novice Hurdle last time
* He does that with no Graded for and a run in a month
* Horses with that profile had a 5-6 record
*Admittedly he won an easy race last time
* There were withdrawals and a favourite that flopped
* That flatters him but he did still win
* DOWNWARD SPIRAL has the strongest profile
* I see him as a decent each way bet here

SELECTION

DOWNWARD SPIRAL 5/1 Each Way

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WORCESTER 3.40

5/2 Roznic, 7/2 Seaquel, 7/1 Tora Petcha, 8/1 High Skies
8/1 Three Ships, 10/1 Rapide Plaisir, 12/1 Mid Wicket
12/1 Thistle, 16/1 Parazar, 25/1 Douchkette
50/1 Frosty´s Gift, 50/1 Tarkesar, 100/1 Lilly De Rome.

This is a 2m Selling Hurdle. There are 113 similar races at
this time of year. ROZNIC is 12 years old and won a selling
hurdle last time over 2m 5f and drops now to a mile. I don't have a huge problem with ROZNIC but he is not statistically strong. In 113 Selling Races thats not the best o profiles.

* Horses aged 9 or more have a modest 7-120 record
* Those dropping from 2m 5f or more were 0-23
* Those coming from selling races were 0-39
* None of them won last time out either

I always respect any horse winning recently but the 113 races do not show a good record for horses like ROZNIC winning so I would be looking for an each way alternative. SEAQUEL has an unimpressive profile as well as a 4 year old filly.

* Fillies aged 4 have a 4-90 record
* None of them had 5 or more runs (0-22) and she has 9 runs
* 4yo Fillies from Novice races were 1-39
* None came from Handicaps as she does
* Not brilliant angles against her but there were no winners like her

I am going to try and oppose SEAQUEL and ROZNIC in this race. I dont want THISTLE with a long absence. RAPIDE PLAISIR has to be considered but there were 2 winners coming from chases when exposed and both those dropped in trip and I couldnt match him to any of the 113 winners. HIGH SKIES is exposed and comes from a 2m Handicap Hurdle. Horses with that profile were 3-15 and though all 3 winners were 7 year olds like him they were also all mares too and he is not so I would take a neutral view about him.


* THREE SHIPS placed in a handicap 2 days ago
* That has to put him in with a decent chance
* He has yet to win left handed but his last run was left handed
* I dont see that as a good enough reason to oppose him
* Wouldnt surprise me at all if THREE SHIPS won
* TORA PETCHA has to be a positive
* Exposed horses aged 6-7-8 coming from 2m Selling Hurdles
* These horses had a 6-11 record
* TORA PETCHA has to be seriously considered
* TORA PETCHA would be my selection.

SELECTION - TORA PETCHA Each Way

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CHEPSTOW 7.40

John Smith´s No Nonsense Selling Stakes
(CLASS 6) (3-5yo) 7f16y

9/4 Invincible Prince, 7/2 Daddy´s Gift, 7/2 Lindoro
11/2 Liberty Trail, 13/2 Aroundthebay, 14/1 Rainsborough
20/1 We´re Delighted, 25/1 Kinigi, 33/1 Doric Echo
66/1 Mujdy, 100/1 Bewdley.

* This is a selling race over 7f
* June and July have 26 similar races at this time of year
* There are a few that look outclassed at the weights
* KINIGI - BEWDLEY both look to have too much on
* RAINSBOROUGH is underraced this year for a 3yo
* MUJDYis far too inexperienced
* There were 5 fillies winning in a 5-117 record
* Fillies aged 4 had a 0-41 record
* AROUNDTHEBAY fails that and comes from a claimer
* All 25 fillies doing that lost
* DADDY´S GIFT is also a 4yo filly (0-41)
* She has to overcome a heavy defeat as well
* DORIC ECHO has not been running well enough
* No 4 year old like him won overcoming a heavy defeat
* WE´RE DELIGHTED looks unsafe well beaten over hurdles
* INVINCIBLE PRINCE is 3 and has just 2 runs this season
* Horses aged 3 are 4-86 in these races
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year have a 1-50 record
* That winner had just 2 runs and didnt come from an 8f race
* Impossible to rule out he certainly doesnt look strong
* LIBERTY TRAIL is 4 and comes from a 7f race
* Horses with that profile had a 4-31 record
* All 4 came from handicaps and he is from a seller
* All 4 ran within 2 weeks and he does not
* Most of them had more runs that season as well
* I cant rule him out but he doesnt match any winners
* LINDORO is exposed and comes from a 6f Claimer
* There was 1 winner with that profile
* He was a similar type well raced that year
* LINDORO is the selection and well treated today

SELECTION

LINDORO

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CHEPSTOW 8.10

Shire Foods Dot Com Handicap
(CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-75) 1m14y

4/1 Magroom, 9/2 Cheam Forever, 5/1 Acheekyone
5/1 Advertise, 11/2 Yes Chef, 9/1 You´ve Been Mowed
10/1 Cadeaux Fax, 16/1 Aflaam, 25/1 Lordship.

* This is an 8f Handicap for 0-75 rated horses
* There are 709 similar races at this time of year
* I want to oppose YOU´VE BEEN MOWED
* She is an exposed filly aged 4 coming from a 7f race
* Horses with that profile had a 2-50 record in 709 races
* Both winners had form in Class 2 or higher
* YOU´VE BEEN MOWED has not run within 2 grades of Class 2
* Both winners had 7 or more previous runs that season
* YOU´VE BEEN MOWED has ran just once this year
* I think its asking too much from her
* LORDSHIP is opposed as an exposed seasonal debutant
* He badly needed his first run each season
* His 5 Career wins come with absences of 10 8 1 6 9 days
* LORDSHIP looks an unlikely first time out winner
* CHEAM FOREVER has a complicated profile
* The issue is whether he did enough last time out
* I looked at 4 year olds with 13 + career runs coming from 8f
* I looked at those like him with 1-2-3-4 runs that season
* I looked at those without form beyond a Class 4 race like him
* Horses with that profile won 5 races
* Those like him beaten 10 + lengths last time were 1-56
* Those that ran within a Month were 0-42
* CHEAM FOREVER has an unimpressive profile
* He is almost there but a strict view of his profile leaves him short
* CADEAUX FAX ran poorly last time out 37 days ago
* He doesnt have much backclass to overcome that absence
* Horses with 13 + runs that come from 7f or shorter won 94 races
* Those with 1-2-3 runs that year like him won 28 races
* Those that had no form in a Class 3 race before were 7-123
* CADEAUX FAX has never run beyond a Class 5 race before
* In that 7-123 record horses beaten 4 + Lengths last time were 0-91
* Those absent over a Month were 2-20 but both winners won last time
* CADEAUX FAX lost by 43 lengths last time out
* There were 4 winners that defied both an absence and a poor last run
* All 4 horses in 709 races that did that had form in Class 3 and Class 2
* CADEAUX FAX has never been beyond a Class 5 race before
* That leaves me wondering if he has the class to bounce back
* ACHEEKYONE has had 1 run since 2007
* Thats a worry for a 7 year old
* There were 5 winners aged 7 or more with 1 run that season
* None were as lightly raced as he is
* None carried as much weight as he has to as well
* He has a highly unusual profile so I wouldnt be too critical
* There are no similar winners and he could lack fitness
* ACHEEKYONE wouldnt be my first choice
* YES CHEF was beaten 25 lengths in an 8f 3yo handicap last time
* I found 1 reasonably similar winner in 709 races
* It is a poor profile though and he isnt for me
* AFLAAM is male and has 13 + career starts
* I looked at Males like that absent more than 7 weeks
* Those with 5 + runs that Callender year were 0-57
* I think his 76 day absence will beat him
* Especially with 10st weight and a career high mark
* MAGROOM is an expoosed 6yo with no form beyond Class 4
* He has 1-4 runs this year without a run in the last fortnight
* I found 5 winners with that profile and I shortlist him
* MAGROOM has a solid profile
* He is on a Career high mark though with many wins late season
* The issue is whether this is his best chance for a win
* It could be August onwards when he has dropped in the weights
* ADVERTISE has a strong profile
* I have opposed him on every run this season
* He has not been fit enough to win Apprentice races
* In this race he now looks like he has a race he can win
* ADVERTISE is the selection each way

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