No Account Bet

There is no racing tomorrow on Good Friday.
Saturday only has 3 meetings at the moment
and none are Flat cards on the grass so the
Season should come alive for us on Monday
which is a Bank Holiday with many fixtures.

I suspect thats when we will start our season
properly. There is not much I can do today on
a Heavy Ground Folkestone card. There are a
few good angles today though. Heavy ground
may trump some angles but I will be interested
to see if I can get a negative beaten in the 3.10.
Also interested to see if SPITFIRE can win the
3.40pm race as well. He would be my best bet.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


Yesterday a pretty good negative led me to consider
an each way bet. In the end the price put me off but
the horse was second and wouldnt have made much
difference had I upgraded him to a full bet. The race
went as expected but in the end there wouldnt have
been much in it had I gone with him.



LUDLOW

Nothing really to say at Ludlow today on bad ground.
Too many short priced horses. I did not want to take
on Perfect Reward or Latanier in the first two races but
both are odds on and hard to argue great value. Then
KENNEL HILL tries to win a Novice Hurdle coming via
a Grade 1 race at Cheltenham. Too short to back but I
wouldnt want to oppose him either. The other race I'd
see as an option was the 5pm race. I would try and get
Prescelli beaten as a mare from a Novice Hurdle and I
think Future Vision has a strong chance of winning it.
Overall not a card that gripped me at all.



F O L K E S T O N E


Nothing much I can do with the maiden at 2.10pm as they
are all unraced. The draw is not predictable. Best guess is
low numbers but there is not enough evidence to have an
insightful view. No strong sire stats either so ignoring it.


FOLKESTONE 2.40

Ladbrokesbingo.com Handicap (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-75) 5f

15/8 Straboe, 5/1 Kyllachy Storm, Rocker, 6/1 Pocket´s Pick
10/1 Love You Louis, 14/1 Desperate Dan 14/1 Lucky Leigh,
20/1 Ginobili.

This is a 5f Handicap for 0-74 rated horses. March and
April have seen 109 similar races on turf at this time of
year. STRABOE is 4 and won a 5f Handicap Last time.
There were 5 horses that did that in 109 races but they
all had 13 or more runs and he has just 8 and I did not
see him as ordinary statistically. The ground is also an
unknown for him and I would rather bet something at a
bigger price than chance him. If you take 4 year olds in
the 109 races that are having their seasonal debuts you
find an interesting statistic showing females do better

* 4yo Female seasonal debutants 5-54
* 4yo Male seasonal debutants 3-133

This shows that 4yo fillies are 4 times more likely to win
than males. Its a poor strike rate for male 4 year olds and
it gets worse than that for certain types of 4yo Males

* 4yo Male seasonal debutants are 3-133
* Those with 13 or more career starts are 1-77
* Those with form in Listed or Group Class are 1-115

These angles put me off POCKET'S PICK and he must be
doubtful on the ground as well.. There were 24 exposed
winners who won on their seasonal debuts. Interesting
that 23 of the 24 had form in at least a Class 3 grade before and KYLLACHY STORM lacks that. I dont think he has
enough backclass to win first time out. GINOBILI looks
well handicapped but that might be an illusion. I suspect
he was badly handicapped after a maiden win first time.
He's only won a Claimer since and although he is probably
well capable of winning handicaps off this mark I wont go
with him today as in the 109 races horses coming from 3yo
handicaps were 0-52 . DESPERATE DAN is not very strong
statistically. Certainly no horse close to being as old as him came from a Claimer to win and this horse is far better when running left handed around a bend. His record on a straight track is poor and I wouldnt want him today. Exposed 4 year old Males like LOVE YOU LOUIS are best when running in the previous fortnight. Those that had not struggled and when they had no Group Class form like LOVE YOU LOUIS they were just 1-50. Thats not a good record and as he also comes from only a Class 6 handicap I suspect he may lose.

SELECTION

ROCKER - Just enough to get him on the shortlist

LUCKY LEIGH - Fine as a 4yo filly first time out

I will try a speculative bet on LUCKY LEIGH and
also have a saver on Rocker.

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FOLKESTONE 3.10

Ladbrokes.com Maiden Fillies´ Stakes (CLASS 5) (3yo) 6f

9/4 Caramelita, 3/1 Rio Mist, 4/1 Aldorable, 6/1 Dreamacha, 7/1 Masteeat, 16/1 Lucky Flyer, 20/1 Lucky Diva, 33/1 Silvee.

* This is a 3yo Maiden for fillies over 6f
* There are 20 similar races at this time of year

It strike me that considering CARAMELITA has had 10
runs already without having won before and has only a
66 rating that their really should be something better in
this race from the lighter raced horses. I looked at every
Fillies Maiden in March and April on turf. That was 144
races at any and every distance. I found only 1 winner
that had 7 or more starts. That was a 1-32 record and it
is significant that winner had form in a Listed Class race.
CARAMELITA has not been out of class 4 yet. That is
telling me he should not have the class to win this. It's
true fitness counts for plenty but class matters more in
these races. Look at the 20 similar races at 6f that there
has been. 7 winners were unraced. Another 12 had their
seasonal debut so only 1 winner had a run that year so
having a recent run does not appear to be an advantage.
I think CARAMELITA should be opposed because she
is too exposed. For the same reasons SILVEE is also out
as too exposed. I looked at 62 of these fillies maidens in
March and April between 5f-6f-7f. In these 62 races the
record of horses with 1 run in a 3yo maiden just 1-69 so
I dont see DREAMACHA as ideal. I think having had a
run this year and an absence there are much more likely
winners. ALDORABLE probably wont be good enough
having Class 6 Nursery form when last seen. I dont see
LUCKY FLYER as the most likely winner up in trip from
an Auction maiden. Her stablemate LUCKY DIVA may
also be best opposed. We are going to have to take a
guess of some sort in a race like this. I do not have any
reason why MASTEEAT should not win this first time
on his debut but you have to take a chance that this
Usa bred horse will handle the ground. RIO MIST may
be the safer choice and I think one of this pair will win.
Obviously CARAMELITA is the danger. I think there
is a good case against her but on heavy ground there
might be many lighter raced horses given easier races
which would hurt my analysis of the race as that is the
way I think we should go. I would watch the market to
see how MASTEEAT looks but RIO MIST would be
my a serious runner as well. Given the prices I'll go this
way

SELECTION

MASTEEAT Win Bet 8/1
RIO MIST Saver Bet 3/1

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FOLKESTONE 3.40

Ladbrokespoker.com Handicap (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 6f

15/8 Harlech Castle, 4/1 Daddy´s Gift, 5/1 Spitfire, 6/1 Signore Momento, 8/1 Kerrys Requiem, 12/1 Kingswinford
14/1 Timeteam, 25/1 Idle Power.

This is a 6f Handicap for 0-84 rated horses. You can argue
that HARLECH CASTLE might be well treated if you can
assume he will show his sand form on the Grass. I would
be against him. I dont like his sire on soft ground and it's far from certain this horse will appreciate the wet ground. Statistically I do not like him at all for these reasons.

* There has been 149 similar races at this time of year
* I looked at horses with 1 or 2 runs this callender year
* Thats 1 or 2 runs since January 1st
* There were 47 winners that won with that profile
* Those however that did not run in a Month were 0-95
* HARLECH CASTLE fails that and has not run in 51 days

I think those two above reasons are good enough for us
to oppose HARLECH CASTLE. I oppose IDLE POWER
for exactly the same reasons and I wouldnt want a horse
aged 12 with a months absence anyway. TIMETEAM is
probably too risky at the moment with his attitude and a
horse giving plenty of people headaches these days.

If you look at 4yo fillies having their seasonal debuts you
find a weak 3-104 record. However those with 13 or more
runs had a 0-49 record. The only 4 year old fillies to win a 6f handicap like this were those with 5-12 career starts so with KERRYS REQUIEM and DADDY'S GIFT both failing
that statistic they have plenty to prove. 4yo Males had a
much better record but not when they were exposed and
KINGSWINFORD comes out as less than impressive as
an exposed 4yo debutant.

* SIGNORE MOMENTO is hard to read
* Seasonal debutant 4 year old with under 9 runs
* There were 4 winners winning like that
* New stable - No English form make him hard to read

* SPITFIRE is a 5yo seasonal debutant
* I have found 6 winners like him
* All his wins are at this distance
* He has run very well fresh
* Both his last 2 seasonal debuts came in better class races
* I think he could win this on those performances
* His stable are in good form
* SPITFIRE looks the best bet to me

SELECTION - SPITFIRE

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FOLKESTONE 4.40

Ladbrokes.com Handicap (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-60) 1m1f149y

11/4 Alfredtheordinary, 9/2 Barodine, 9/2 Holyfield Warrior
13/2 Rosy Dawn, 10/1 Mick Is Back, Kilkenny Bay 12/1 Steady Gaze, 16/1 Felicia, 16/1 Golden Prospect , Illicit, Amwell House 28/1 Kalligal, 33/1 High Class Problem, 33/1 Mamichor.

* This is a 0-58 Handicap over an extended 9f
* There's been 99 similar races on turf in March -April
* Fillies have a poor 9-296 record in these races
* Fillies aged 4 had a poor 3-180 record
* Those with under 9 career starts were 0-72
* KILKENNY BAY fails that and looks weak
* The 9 fillies that won all had some backclass
* They had all ran in at least a Class 4 race before
* FELICIA fails that and has to come from a claimer
* There was only 3 exposed females winning
* They all had form in at least a Class 3 grade before
* ROSY DAWN fails that and may not want heavy ground
* KALLIGAL also fails that and doesnt appeal
* MAMICHOR has been absent too long
* HIGH CLASS PROBLEM shouldnt be ready to win
* Not with 1 poor run this year and an absence
* AMWELL HOUSE is in the same boat
* He has ran just once in 11 months and that was poor
* GOLDEN PROSPECT has a weak profile
* The ground wont help him either
* MICK IS BACK is exposed and a seasonal debutant
* Without significant backclass thats a worry
* He ran in this race last year first time out
* He was well beaten in last years race
* He has never won over this far before
* His trainer has a poor record with seasonal debutants
* I dont see why he should win this today

POSSIBLES

* I cant find a winner like ILLICIT
* I can find a very similar female winner
* Not a Male winner but he has been gambled at big odds
* As he is lightly raced he may be worth considering
* HOLYFIELD WARRIOR is very hard to read
* I dont like his profile much to be honest
* I've shortlisted him as it's an unsafe profile to read
* He has won on heavy ground over hurdles
* His sire doesnt have a good record on this ground
* His offspring are 1-70 on soft and heavy on the flat
* He wouldnt be my first choice
* STEADY GAZE has a profile I could live with
* He has a massive stable upgrade as well
* If Money came for him he would be a player
* Without any money for him I'd leave him alone
* ALFREDTHEORDINARY has a good solid profile
* There are issues for him to overcome
* Will his draw prove to be an advantage
* Will be show his Sand form on Turf ?
* He also has to prove he can handled ground this bad
* His Sire's had 48 winners but just 1 on soft or heavy
* BARODINE has a good solid profile
* One of the fittest horses he has to be respected
* The ground is softer than he has won on before
* He will handle some cut and I like his chance

SELECTION

With a market move I'd take a chance on Steady Gaze
but that move hasn't yet happened. I see BARODINE
as the most likely winner of the race. BARODINE and
ALFREDTHEORDINARY combined in two win bets
at 9/2 or better returns a 7/4 winner if either win. Thats
not a bad bet. I cant see many horses to beat them. I
will select him to win in a split stake bet.

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