1 Account Bet

Southwell 3.10

LUCKY MELLOR 11/4

£50 Win

11/4 Hills - BlueSq-Vc -Tote-Skybet
5/2 Generally everywhere else

* I think he will be this price later so no great
price issues.

Missed the best price on Lucky Mellor today which
is a bit annoying. He is 11/4 and thats still reasonable
as I dont think many can win this race. I think he is a
good bet and plan to start the week's bets with him.

Southwell is the place I have concentrated on today
and there are 5 previews there. Before that there are
a few words at Ludlow and Taunton but neither of
the National hunt cards are inspiring today. Would
have liked a more inspirational bet but he will do.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G

Been a slow start to the week this week. We still havent played on the account yet. Yesterdays message was stronger than the one on Tuesday which is a good sign as it's taken me a while to get going this week. Obviously Cheltenham slows me down a bit but hopefully it will be worth it.



N A T I O N A L H U N T


TAUNTON


Taunton has a poor card. Not a lot I can say there. I thought EARTH PLANET was the better horse in the 2.20pm but that DOVER'S HILL a slightly safer profile. I wasnt sure I'd be able to split them. In the end my hunch was EARTH PLANET.

The next race is spoilt by VORAMAR TWO would should be
winning. The Novice Handicap Chase is partly about whether
there is a strong profile to bet each way against the favourite. I think HOLMWOOD LEGEND has the best chance and has no real flaws but he is a bit short for me when statistically he can only be described as competent. I came down wanting to oppose Vic's World - Sir Bumble - Local Present. I would see KATALAK as a possible option each way but in the end I didnt have a really strong profile to tackle the favourite with. Give me a free bet and it would be KATALAK each way.

I thought there wasnt much point in opposing Pistolet Noir
in the 3.50pm. Felt he would probably win at odds on. I dont really know enough about the Hunter Chase at 4.20pm. The last race at 4.50 is interesting. KING'S LEGACY doesnt have a great profile. Look at all similar races at 17f and 18f and the record of 6 year olds from Bumpers in Febuary -March was 0-113. Some did win at 2m trips and 2m 4f trips so there was a slight doubt about how strongly I should view that. What I cant say is that he is a positive. WHISTLEJACQUET won last time out and whilst horses like him score very well my reading of his profile is that I should be very carefull. I do not like the fact he has just ran once this season. There are 18 horses aged 5 that won Novice Hurdles last time out. It feels important that all 18 had 2 or more runs that year and I wouldnt want to get caught out if fitness is an issue. If I was taking this favourite on SIR KEZBAAH each way may be the safer option in the race.



L U D L O W


I think the first race is an information race and I didnt have anything nasty or gushing to say about any of the fancied horses and with an unraced horse in Zakatal adding more than enough confusion to the race it's too open.


The 3pm is a Novice Chase over 2m 4f. I would have wanted
CARLITIOS to have had more than one run this year and see
him as unsafe. I couldnt find a winner like POLYFAST from a Handicap Chase with 2 runs this year. SONG SUNG BLUE isnt out of this but needs a more recent run. I cant find a mare like MARKILA winning. PICKAMUS is difficult to read but I see a much better record had he been going down in trip rather than up. QUARTZ DE THAIX has a strong profile and I liked him more than anything else and feel he is the best option. If he can keep mistakes to a minimum as he isnt the most fluent of jumpers then I can see him winning.


The 3.30pm is too difficult. There are 64 Novice Handicaps
like this over 2m 5f in Febuary and March. I wasnt keen on
betting GUYDUS as a mare. Female horses win these races
but they dont score well. In fact since 2000 they have a 0-53 record in these races. None won last time like her. Those in the 64 races from handicaps like her were 2-68 and none of them were 6 year olds. Other mares looking unsafe would be LADY BLING BLING and STICK TOGETHER. I cant rule either out but neither come out well. Mares from 18f or less are 0-38 so VIN ROSE is out and ITSTOOEARLY has been absent longer than any mare that won. SHANNINA comes up in trip and no 5yo did that from a Novice Hurdle. I dont fancy GALOSHES as horses from 2m handicaps were poor and none like him. I dont fancy MR LOGISTICS much. It's possibly a race for a shock result. DREAM GARDEN has a chance. I have found one winner like BALLYVESEY. I'd argue that WHITEABBEY and HIDEAWAY at big prices come out as well as anything else.

The 4pm is too hard but CARRICKMINES has a strong
profile and with 10st wont be easy to beat but far too open.

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SOUTHWELL 2.10

Call 01636 814481 To Sponsor A Race Handicap
(CLASS 5) (3yo 0-75) 1m

2/1 Sweet Child O´mine, 100/30 Cloudy City, 100/30 First Post 6/1 Paintball, 7/1 Tiger Hawk, 10/1 Wedding Dream.

There has been 228 of these 3yo handicaps over a Mile.
I think CLOUDY CITY has an inconclusive record. Not
seen since last August in an Auction Maiden over 8f I
have found 8 horses like him and 1 winner who carried
a stone less weight. One of those horses you respect a
great deal but if something with a stronger profile exists
you shouldnt be afraid to oppose him. I would not see
SWEET CHILD O´MINE as strong. Fillies like her from
6f handicaps were poor. None had under 7 runs (0-17)
and none won without a run within a week (0-30). She
looks one to avoid. WEDDING DREAM is a filly and I
looked at similar fillies with between 7-12 runs coming
from 8f handicaps. There was a modest 3-61 record and
the 3 winners all ran better than her last time so she isn't ideal statistically. TIGER HAWK was beaten in a seller last time and horses doing that with 9 or more runs had a 1-36 record. PAINTBALL doesnt come out well with
4 runs and well beaten last time. Overall CLOUDY CITY
would be a safer risk than any of the above horses but
there is one horse with a better profile in the race.

* FIRST POST won an 8f maiden last time
* Horses with his profile had a strong record
* Just 1 run this season
* Running within 7 weeks
* There were 16 horses with that profile
* There were 8 winners in those 16 runners
* Those with 3 runs like him were 3-4

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SOUTHWELL 2.40

Dine In The Queen Mother Restaurant
Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (3yo) 7f

5/2 Inside Track, 9/2 Eight Hours, 5/1 Set Back
11/2 Captain Bluebird, 6/1 Cardiff Boy, 8/1 Tealing
10/1 Golden Tiger, 66/1 Account Closed, Baby Judge
66/1 Isle Of Ellis.

* This is a 7f Claimer for 3 year olds
* There has been 65 similar races at this time of year
* BABY JUDGE - ISLE OF ELLIS are too badly weighted
* None of the 65 winners were unraced
* There has been 266 claimers at this time of year for 3 year olds
* Thats 266 at any distance and all 66 unraced horses lost
* ACCOUNT CLOSED is unraced and rejected
* CARDIFF BOY is also unraced and rejected
* SET BACK comes from a 6f Claimer
* Horses doing that with under 9 runs were 0-14
* SET BACK fails that and isnt safe statistically
* CAPTAIN BLUEBIRD drops from a 9f race
* Only 1 of the 65 winners did that
* He was also beaten 22 lengths last time
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths with under 7 runs were 2-85
* Those that had ran this year were just 1-50
* CAPTAIN BLUEBIRD doesnt impress statistically
* GOLDEN TIGER has 2 career starts
* Horses with 2 or 3 career starts were 0-40
* I looked at horses that had not won a race before
* Those with 1-2-3 previous races had a 1-54 record
* GOLDEN TIGER doesnt make much appeal
* EIGHT HOURS comes from a 3yo handicap over 6f
* Horses doing that had a 3-28 record
* Only 1 had under 9 runs
* Only 1 had under 3 runs that callender year
* None were absent more than 2 weeks like him (0-8)
* None won last time out either
* EIGHT HOURS comes out with a shaky profile
* TEALING was beaten 11 lengths in a 7f handicap last time
* Only 1 winners had that profile in 66 races
* I couldnt rule him out but he is not strong
* INSIDE TRACK comes from an 8f claimer
* Horses doing that with 9 + runs had a 5-20 record
* There is every chance he didnt stay 8f last time
* INSIDE TRACK has one of the better profiles

SELECTION - INSIDE TRACK

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SOUTHWELL 3.10

Jeff Orange Birthday Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo 0-85) 5f

9/4 Love Delta, 4/1 Lucky Mellor, 5/1 Best Trip,
11/2 Breathless Kiss, 10/1 Boogie Waltzer, 12/1 Barlaman,
12/1 Dazeen, 14/1 Ramamara, 25/1 Transfixed.

This is a 3yo handicap over 5f. There has been 86 similar
races at this time of year. Only a few winners defied more
than 7 weeks absence. Fillies doing this were 1-51 and no
horse did it with 13 or more runs so RAMAMARA has to
go and DAZEEN also has to go as no winner came from a
2yo conditions race. TRANSFIXED looks weak as a filly
down from a 7f race when so exposed. BEST TRIP comes
from a 3yo handicap over 5f. None of the 86 winners did
that with under 4 starts and he isnt my choice. Fillies that came from 5f handicaps like BREATHLESS KISS with four
runs won just one race and that filly won last time out. It is interesting just 2 fillies like her won with under 5 career starts but those that didnt win last time were 0-22 and It is not a strong profile and BREATHLESS KISS is rejected. LOVE DELTA won a 6f handicap last time and an obvious problem with him is the 36 day absence. I cant see a horse that won a 6f handicap with that absence. I can not find a winner that won a race as a 3 year old with that absence either and having won 3 races in January and from lower marks I would be nervous about him trying to win again with that absence. BOOGIE WALTZER has a chance as
her profile is just about acceptable but she would have
been far better with a recent run and having a break of
over a month really hurts her profile. BARLAMAN is
a positive. I dont have a problem with him. I would see
LUCKY MELLOR as having one of the best profiles in
the race and he would be comfortably on the shortlist.

SELECTION - LUCKY MELLOR

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SOUTHWELL 3.40

Hospitality At Southwell Racecourse
Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5) (3yo) 5f

5/2 Just Mandy, 7/2 St Ignatius, 5/1 Miss Kitty Grey,
11/2 Blades Harmony, 6/1 Fine And Dandie, 8/1 Killing Moon
25/1 Bombay Mist, 25/1 Captain Tony, 33/1 Coal Miner,
66/1 Shawkantango.

This is a 5f maiden race for 3 year olds. There are just 36
similar races at this time of year. On Official ratings there is a strong case for ST IGNATIUS. That said his last run suggests he is flattered by his rating and I dont like him from a 7f claimer. Only 1 horse came from a claimer and
that was a 5f race not a 7f one and the only horse from a
claimer had more experience and didnt have a recent run.
ST IGNATIUS has that to overcome and he comes from
a 7f race. There were 3 winners dropping from 7f but it's
interesting those with 2 or more runs were 0-16 and He
doesnt look right to me. JUST MANDY has a bit better
profile for me but She is still a filly from a 7f race and as I said before no horse dropped from 7f with more than 2
career starts. I could forgive her that as she has just 3
runs and I think she has a chance. MISS KITTY GREY
has a good profile. If she handles the surface she may
well win and I think she will handle it. Horses that come
from 6f maidens like BLADES HARMONY with two or
more runs had poor record and Male horses doing that
like him had a 0-16 record. FINE AND DANDIE lost by
too far last time out and I cant match her to any winner.
KILLING MOON has to go down 3f in distance. There
seems little chance SHAWKANTANGO can overcome
a heavy defeat 3 days ago. In the end I felt the winner
may come from JUST MANDY or MISS KITTY GREY.

SELECTION - MISS KITTY GREY

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SOUTHWELL 4.10

southwell-racecourse.co.uk Handicap
(CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 1m4f

11/10 Spruce, 3/1 Reverend Green, 9/2 Bariolo,
8/1 Hollow Green, 14/1 Moheebb, 25/1 Sacrilege.

This is a 12f handicap. It will take a lot to beat SPRUCE as he is a lightly raced 4 year old that won a handicap last time. He's also Penalised for that win. There were 13 horses aged 4 just like him trying to win these races and 7 or the 13 won and he has a very solid profile. I think SPRUCE has a significantly better profile than REVEREND GREEN who comes from an 8f maiden with 3 runs. No horse managed that with under 9 runs and he looks to face a really difficult test. I dont fancy SACRILEGE for all sorts
of reasons not least refusing to race last time out over hurdles. HOLLOW GREEN has a horrible profile. MOHEEBB has a long break and ran badly on his only start here so there are some big doubts about him much as he does look well treated. I wouldnt be confident about reading BARIOLO. He won well last time at Lingfield but he has a history of problems and it was his first run in 13 months and he could easily bounce or fail to handle the surface. I wouldn't want to oppose SPRUCE here.

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