Wednesday March 17th

3 Account Bets


Cheltenham 1.30

PETITFOUR 12/1 £40 Win
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 9/1 £10 Saver


Cheltenham 2.05

SOME PRESENT 33/1 £15 Each Way
FINIAN'S RAINBOW 6/1 £20 Win


Cheltenham 3.20

* Betting without the Favourite" market
* Master Minded is not included in the bet

FORPADYDEPLASTERER 9/2
£25 Each Way



Day Two and getting into the meeting now. I do not
feel I am strong in the Handicap Hurdles this week. I
dont think anyone has a clue in the Fred Winter and
the Bumper is always hard so I would again think the
message is stronger in the first 4 races. I'd advise you
to follow me in the first 4 races and then leave the 3
remaining races to just some smaller interest bets.

Tomorrow's message is the hardest to do and quite a
laborious one so I may just have to delay the message
a little longer than ideal and send it around Noon.

Gone with 3 Account Bets. It will feel threadbare if we
get nothing out of the 4m Chase. I have spent a long
time on the race. I have to have the saver. If my main
choice PETITFOUR jumps well I fear nothing but it's
a long race and they all have to jump. I have gone to
a 33/1 shock in the Neptune. The price has forced my
hand. I concede he has plenty to prove on form but
there are holes in his opposition and the ground may
help him a lot more than some. I want a second horse
in the race but you can see from the prices it's hard.

I was in two minds whether to go with my 3rd bet on
FORPADYDEPLASTERER because it is in the specials
market. Its "Without The Favourite". Every firm has a
price for the horse and although I know a few will get
confused it is simply a matter of asking for a bet in the
Champion Chase Without the favourite market. There
is each way betting there and I think he is a good bet.

I Think PUNCHESTOWNS will win the RSA Chase at
2.40pm but 3 bets looks enough and the price isnt as
good as I would have hoped for now so he's a mention



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Cheltenham Summary


Cheltenham 1.30

PETITFOUR 12/1
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 9/1

Cheltenham 2.05
Half Stakes on both horses
FINIANS RAINBOW 11/2
SOME PRESENT 33/1


Cheltenham 2.40
PUNCHESTOWNS 5/2

Cheltenham 3.20
"Betting without the Favourite" market
FORPADYDEPLASTERER 9/2 Each Way
Details of prices and firms below

Cheltenham 4.00
Split Stake Bet

HAMPSHIRE EXPRESS 20/1
SIR HARRY ORMESHER 14/1

Cheltenham 4.40
Split Stake Bet
OPEN DAY 14/1
FIN VIN DE LEU 28/1


Cheltenham 5.15
Split Stake Bet
DRUMBALOO 10/1
ELEGANT CONCORDE 7/1

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


Didn't have the start I wanted yesterday with both the
account bets losing. I think Dunguib was held up a bit
too far off the pace on quicker ground than ideal but I
dont see it as an excuse as I would not have the same
bet if he ran today. The Chasers didnt deliver. I think
Kicks For Free struggled in a big field with his jumping.
Nenuphar ran pretty well but he was just finding faster
ground than ideal and he didnt have the speed. Could
have been a lot better even though I knew it was from
my point of view the toughest day. Wasn't all doom or
gloom as we did get a couple of winners from the rest
of the card. Today we have to match them a bit better.


The Ground obviously could have the biggest say and
heavy and soft ground horses may have a harder time
than it looked they might a few weeks ago.



CHELTENHAM 1.30

140th Year of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
(Amateur Riders´ Novices´ Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 4m

7/1 Any Currency, 7/1 Massasoit, 7/1 Synchronised
8/1 Abbeybraney, 10/1 Becauseicouldntsee, Mobaasher
12/1 Pettifour, 16/1 Fabalu 16/1 Far More Serious
16/1 Poker De Sivola , 16/1 Presenting Forever, 25/1
Noakarad De Verzee, 25/1 Tinakellylad, 33/1 Cast Cada
33/1 Gentle Ranger, 33/1 Pennek, 33/1 Youngstown
40/1 Kildonnan, 50/1 Prudent Honour, 66/1 Carlas Dream.


* This is a 4m Chase for Amatuer riders
* There has been 16 renewals since 1993

* MOBAASHER is quite like the 2006 winner
* Purely on his profile I didnt have a big problem
* What really bothers me about him is his flat form
* I have looked at every past winner since 1989
* None of these started life on the Flat
* They were all National Hunt types
* That has to be very significant in my view
* His sire hasnt bred a winner over this far either
* Because of that I couldnt bet him
* Last year was the first 6 year old winner
* I dont mind a 6yo as long as they fit other stats
* PRESENTING FOREVER doesnt appeal aged 6
* He is far lighter raced and lacks enough prep runs
* He has less chase runs than most recent winners
* He has fewer runs this year as well
* TINAKELLYLAD has to go as a 6yo from 2m 4f
* GENTLE RANGER doesnt look right to me
* YOUNGSTOWN is probably too slow
* I think there is a stamina issue with him
* I wouldnt be sure he would stay
* He's different from any novice handicappers that won
* CAST CADA looks underraced this year
* He also lacks the required backclass
* CARLAS DREAM makes no appeal as a mare
* PRUDENT HONOUR looks outclassed
* NOAKARAD DE VERZEE looks too exposed
* Especially for a horse with no real backclass
* Not the best age and not the best preparation
* FAR MORE SERIOUS has been chasing since 2006
* He is exposed and not the right type at all
* As a 10yo Handicapper he doesnt appeal to me
* I cant find a winner that was remotely like him
* Exposed Horses with 21 + starts won 2 races
* Both winners came from Novice Chases
* He doesnt and I dont like his profile
* SYNCHRONISED comes from significant connections
* Jonjo O Neill won this in 1995-2002-2003-2004 -2007
* JP Mc Manus won 4 races and had 4 placed as well
* He has a shaky profile for me
* I would have prefered another run this season
* He has 3 runs this season
* Past winners had 5-5-4-4-4-5-8-5-6-2-7-7-6-5-10-4-4 runs
* My problem with SYNCHRONISED is simple
* Does he have enough runs this year
* When he has to come from 2m 6f up to 4m
* When he hasnt raced in 51 days
* I looked at past winners from 2m 6f or less
* None of these had 1-2-3 runs this year
* Only 1 was absent more than 7 weeks
* That winner came from a handicap and he doesnt
* I cant match him with any past winner
* I would also worry about the ground being too quick
* He does also make a few mistakes
* FABALU has an unimpressive profile for me
* His Sire did breed last years winner
* I like his recent win and momentum in the race
* The ground could just be a bit quick though
* His jockey is inexperienced
* He doesnt have enough backclass as most
* He was rated just 118 before his last win
* I think his 138 rating flatters him a bit
* I think there will be classier runners
* ABBEYBRANEY wouldnt be my first choice
* He isnt the perfect age for this
* I would be worried he has 2 runs this season
* Past winners had 5-5-4-4-4-5-8-5-6-2-7-7-6-5-10-4-4 runs
* Throw in a 98 day absence
* I think he is at a disadvantage to some


BETTER PROFILES


* MASSASOIT comes from a Handicap Chase
* Only 1 winner since 1994 managed that
* His trainer Paul Nichols is 0-17 in this race
* None of his runners came 1st or 2nd
* I can't find a winner exactly like him
* I think the ground is going against him as well
* I also didnt like his jumping on his first 3 chase runs
* They were littered with mistakes
* The race he won at Fakenham was poor
* He jumped better at Sandown but he isnt convincing
* On this ground he could easily catch one and fall

* PENNEK could be interesting
* Overall I just think there are doubts
* Horses from Novice Chase were fine
* Those without form in a Grade 1-2 race were 2-92
* None were as exposed as he is
* He did have excuses on his last 2 starts
* The tracks were too sharp and caught him out
* He will like it here and was 3rd in last years Pertempts
* I would rather bet him at 33/1 than lay him
* He just has too many doubts for me
* I dont see him as a certain stayer
* I think there could be quicker horses

SHORTLIST

* ANY CURRENCY has 6 Chase starts a little too many
* 6 of the last 7 winners had 3-4 chase starts
* 24 of the last 26 winners were 1-2-3-4 last time out
* He was only 5th last time out
* I think you can probably overlook those statistics
* He only just fails both of them and I dont worry about it
* I do see a couple of other problems though
* He comes from a Handicap Chase
* Only 1 winner since 1994 managed that
* His biggest problem might be stamina
* His sire hasnt had a winner beyond 3m 4f yet

* POKER DE SIVOLA has some issues
* He is pretty exposed now but 2 winners were
* There is also a stamina doubt
* His sire hasnt bred a winner beyond 3m 2f
* Both his longest distance runs were heavy defeats
* He had excuses in the Borders National
* He wasnt right statistically in last years Kim Muir as well
* If he stays he does have the ability
* I think he is a small horse
* I may be wrong about that but I think he is
* Do we really want that over 4m around here
* Throw in an inexperienced lady amateur
* Not convinced about him but just cant rule him out


SELECTION

* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE has a nice profile
* Happy with 5 Chase starts and being well raced this year
* Hard to know whether his chase form is good enough
* His 142 rating suggests he will be
* I would have liked some Chelteham form
* That said his trainer states he is best left handed
* He is also a large horse built for fences
* Coming here with a recent win could be significant
* I think the ground might help him
* There are signs he is improving and I like him


* PETITFOUR comes out reasonably well
* He has enough experience and runs this year
* He didnt have the run of the race in a hot race last time
* He will love this trip and is a serious runner
* His only flaw is whether he jumps better
* This longer trip will help him in that regard
* If he jumps well he will win for me


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WEDNESDAY 2.05

Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle
(Registered As Baring Bingham Novices´ Hurdle)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

7/2 Quel Esprit, 7/2 Rite Of Passage, 11/2 Finian´s Rainbow
6/1 Peddlers Cross, 10/1 Summit Meeting, 11/1 Reve De Sivola 16/1 Manyriverstocross, 20/1 Ghizao, 25/1 The Knoxs
33/1 Gus Macrae, 33/1 Some Present, 50/1 Hollo Ladies
66/1 Baily Rock, 100/1 Sleepy Hollow, 100/1 The Giant Bolster 200/1 Consulate, 200/1 Quartano.

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992

I think you can rule out half the field. Pointless doing
too much analysis on no hopers. Its not a race that is
likely to go to a complete outsider and never has done.
I think THE KNOXS is underraced for a 7yo and lacks
backclass. He looks to come up short. I dont like a 5yo
like SUMMIT MEETING coming from just an ordinary
Novice Hurdle. I think GHIZAO is underraced as well
coming from a 2m race and with just 2 hurdle starts I'd
see him as vulnerable. MANYRIVERSTOCROSS does
not come out well from a 2m handicap and none of the
past winners were like him. Five look worth a mention.


* REVE DE SIVOLA is hard to judge
* His biggest problem is clearly his absence
* No horse won without having run in January -February.
* No Refuge had a similar profile in 2005
* He didnt have as long a break as this horse
* He was also much lighter raced
* Wouldnt rule him out
* There are better profiles for me

* PEDDLERS CROSS is 5 and comes from a 2m race
* I dont like that profile at all
* Since 1993 just 1 winner was 5 coming from 2m 4f or less
* The record was 1 winner from 33 that tried
* That winner was the mightly Istabraq in 1997
* I think we can safely say he is an exception to the rule
* Istabraq prepped over 18f before winning this
* No English horse aged 5 came 1st or 2nd in this from a 2m race
* He wouldnt be my choice to win this race

* RITE OF PASSAGE has looks top class
* He does have a few little issues to address
* Its unclear whether Cheltenham is his best track
* 3rd in the Bumper last year he was beaten a fair way
* He is a Flat Bred horse which is a concern
* This race usually falls to a National Hunt bred horse
* He has only ran twice over hurdles before
* 20 of the last 24 winners all had more than 2 hurdle runs

* QUEL ESPRIT ran in the Cheltenham bumper last year
* He was just behind Rites of Passage in 4th
* He has 3 hurdle runs and that makes more suitable
* His defeat last time did blot his copybook
* 3 of the last 7 winners were beaten though last time
* Statistically I think he is just better than Rites of Passage

* FINIAN´S RAINBOW is a 7 year old
* We know Horses aged 5 and 6 dominate
* They have won 33 of the last 38 renewals
* The last 10 winners and runner ups were aged 5 or 6
* I am not sure thats a statistic thats relevant
* FINIAN´S RAINBOW didnt start racing until he was 6
* The only previous 7yo winner started his career late
* As he is lightly raced I dont see his age as a big issue
* I looked at 7 year olds in this race since 1993
* I Looked at those starting under 20/1
* I looked at those with Grade 1 form
* I looked at those winning last time out
* I looked at those not coming from 16f races
* There were only 2 horses aged 7 with that profile
* They finished 1st (1998) and 3rd (2006)
* That tells me there is nothing wrong with his profile

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

FINIAN'S RAINBOW 11/2

SOME PRESENT 33/1 Each Way


Interesting race. I would only want Rites of Passage
if he was strong statistically but he isnt. Quel Esprit
is slightly better but the ground could be the problem
with him and it does put me off a bit. I know horses in
this race aged 7 havent done well but I hope I have
shown that only a certain type of 7yo struggle and
horses like FINIAN'S RAINBOW are fine. I would be
having half my stake on him.

The other half of the stake is far more specualtive but
at 33/1 SOME PRESENT could be a bit overpriced. He
isnt brilliant statistically but he is 33/1 and he isnt dead my any means. I arguments are these

* There are question marks about shorter priced horses
* He ran in the 2009 Bumper here and came second
* He was only beaten by Dunguib
* He beat Rites of Passage and Quel Esprit that day
* Since then he has a W 2 2 2 6 3 record
* Twice he has been beaten by Dunguib again
* He hasnt been well placed in his races
* He was the victim of many slow pace races
* He comes from a Grade 1 race thats a good trial
* Although beaten 13 lengths there were excuses
* He was hardly likely to beat Dunguib
* The ground was heavy that day which hurt him
* His sire has only had 2 fancied runners in this race
* They came 2nd and 4th
* He should be much better suited to faster ground
* He will appreciate the trip and the stronger pace
* There is a bit of a leap of faith but he could go well
* SOME PRESENT could run much better than expected

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CHELTENHAM 2.40

RSA Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1)(5yo+) 3m110y

7/4 Long Run, 11/4 Punchestowns, 6/1 Diamond Harry
8/1 Weapon´s Amnesty, 12/1 Burton Port, 12/1 Citizen Vic
25/1 Knockara Beau, 66/1 Chasing Cars, 66/1 Little Josh
150/1 Flight Leader.

The Royal and Sun Alliance Chase looks an exciting
race this year. The race revolves around LONG RUN
who' s looked top notch so far this season. I think in
terms of experience you can give him benefits of the
doubt if you decide to include his French form. I do
not like doing that but because he's clearly top class
I think it is a good idea to give him as many benefits
of the doubt as possible. There are a few concerns I
have with LONG RUN listed below

* Concerns about LONG RUN
* He is not proven on this track or any similar track
* He hasnt been fluent with all his jumping
* He cant afford to take any risks with these fences
* He is ridden by an Amateur
* There were just 2 winners aged 5 since 1946
* One of these won as far back as 1950
* The other was in 2006 but he had an allowance
* This year LONG RUN doesnt get that allowance
* Very worried that he comes from a 2m race
* Only 1 past winner came from 2m 4f or shorter
* I would be very wary of a 5yo from 2 miles
* Especially with flaws in his jumping

Much as I dont like LONG RUN's profile it does all
depend on what level of opposition he faces. There
are many that like PUNCHESTOWNS but he doesnt
come into the race without his own problems. I think
you can argue having two chase runs and just 2 runs
this year might hurt him. The last 10 winners had
3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4 previous Chase starts. He's not had
as as many. Its true Florida Pearl won it in 1998 with
2 runs but he was top class and also far less exposed.
Florida Pearl also won in a smaller field that was not
competetive at all. I dont think he's ideal statistically.

I don't really want BURTON POINT. Six year olds like
him underperform in this and whilst he has a reasonable
profile he clearly looks the stables 3rd string and clearly not as good as his two stablemates. LITTLE JOSH has
a bit too much to find from a Novice Handicap and his
jumping may not hold up. FLIGHT LEADER looks out
of his class as does CHASING CARS. I dont want any
horse coming from shorter than 2m 4f so it's not easy
to give CITIZEN VIC much time in such a hot race as
he comes from a 2m 1f race and I don't fancy him.


DIAMOND HARRY.

The biggest problem with DIAMOND HARRY is that
he has just 2 Chase starts. You really do want 3 or more
chase runs. That said Punchestown has only had two
and Long Run has other issues that can beat him. With
DIAMOND HARRY you get the neccesary recent run
and more runs this year. I can make a strong case for
DIAMOND HARRY statistically

* There were 5 horses with this profile
* Horses from a Novice Chase last time
* Male horses Aged 7
* 7-12 runs over hurdles and chases
* 3-4 runs this season
* Form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 before
* DIAMOND HARRY has this profile
* The 5 horses with it finished W W W F W
* Denman (2007) Trabolgan (2006) won with that profile
* One Knight (2003) Lord Noelie (2000) also had it
* DIAMOND HARRY is statistically excellent

What worries me most apart from his two Chase starts
that the above 4 winners all had is stamina. He isnt
certain to stay an extended 3 miles here with a strong
pace and it worries me a lot about his chance.

* KNOCKARA BEAU could spring a surprise
* He is a little bit exposed
* He's had 7 chase starts and a recent winner had 8
* He is the right age and stays well
* He comes from the Reynoldstown but I dont mind that
* He wasnt suited to the slow pace that day
* He also lost a shoe in the race
* He sails through all my angles
* He probably wont win but he's overpriced
* He has run well on the track before
* Whether it suits him ideally or not I dont know
* You can also argue he may want it softer
* Good value at 25/1 but not safe


WEAPONS AMNESTY

* He passes all my angles in this race
* He is a Previous Festival winner and stays
* His sire has bred the winner of this race
* He comes from the same race as last years winner
* He is experienced and well raced this year
* I give him a strong chance
* Thats assuming he handles softer ground


SELECTION

DIAMOND HARRY probably has the best profile
and although I am worried that he has just 2 chase
runs so to does PUNCHESTOWNS and Long Run
has a bit more to worry about in my view. The main
question for me is whether I can trust both horses
after hard races last time. The frame of the race and
the betting leaves little manouver room for savers.
I was so impressed with PUNCHESTOWNS in his
last race when his jockey knew just how much he
had in hand after letting a good horse get a long
way clear. I think he has the class to win this and
in a close decision I fancy PUNCHESTOWNS

SELECTION - PUNCHESTOWNS 5/2

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CHELTENHAM 3.20

Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m

4/6 Master Minded, 9/2 Kalahari King, 7/1 Twist Magic
10/1 Big Zeb, 10/1 Forpadydeplasterer, 33/1 Well Chief
50/1 Golden Silver, 66/1 Oh Crick, 100/1 Mahogany Blaze.

MASTER MINDED is on a Hat Trick in this race and he
has just 4 runners under 50/1 to beat. The question that
matters most is whether you are prepared to bet him here
at odds on after his Cracked Rib and the possibility that
he isnt the same horse as he was. He did win last time out
but that didnt tell us much and he survived a bad mistake
that day and he wont be able to jump like that here. The
likelyhood is he will probably win but he is a short price.

TWIST MAGIC has an obvious chance if the favourite is
not right. Its unclear whether he appreciates Cheltenham
and whether he gets up the hill. He's had problems at the
start before. He was unruly in the paddock at last years
festival. He wouldnt be my first choice . BIG ZEB looks a
threat. The risk withn his is whether his jumping will hold
up. Thats the main concern but if he does jump round he
will be a big threat. Its easy to fancy KALAHARI KING
as well. What worries me with him is his last run was so
impressive when badly in need of the race that I wouldnt
be sure if he improves from that or regresses from it. I also think there is a good chance he will be run off his feet in the early stages and may prefer a 2m 4f pace. I dont really want to oppose MASTER MINDED and equally I do not want to bet him at odds on so I think the best bet has to come in the "Without The Favourite" market.


* BETTING WITHOUT MASTER MINDED
* All firms have a market on this race

2/1 Kalahari King, 7/2 Twist Magic , 4/1 Big Zeb
4/1 Forpadydeplasterer 14/1 Well Chief, Golden Silver
25/1 Oh Crick , 50/1 Mahogany Blaze

SELECTION

FORPADYDEPLASTERER 9/2 Each Way

11/2 Corals
5/1 Boyles
9/2 Bet365 - Spbet - PaddyP - Ladbrokes
4/1 Hills -BlueSq - VC -Tote-Skybet


FORPADYDEPLASTERER was once ruled out from
running in this as he was lame. He's recovered now
and takes his chance and Binocular showed yesterday
what matters is on the day and not pre race issues. He
has the longest absence but that could be an advantage.
He is a clean winded horse. He won the Arkle last year
and Arkle winners have a brilliant record in this race. I
know it wasnt a vintage race but neither is this when
you consider Master Minded isnt included in the bet.
Before he lost at Sandown in December his trainer said
he would hate the soft ground and he wouldnt get home
so his defeat to Twist Magic doesnt worry me His best
run came away from soft ground when he won last years
Arkle and I think he is a better ground spring horse. As
the bet doesnt involve Master Minded - and as there are
several big priced horses he only has to finish 1-2-3 and
beat one of Big Zeb - Kalahari King or Twist Magic and
none of those are bomb proof. I think this is the bet bet
in the race.

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CHELTENHAM 4.00

Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3
(CLASS 1)(4yo+) 2m5f

7/1 Quantitativeeasing, 8/1 Deutschland, 12/1 Shadow
Dancer ,12/1 Sir Harry Ormesher, 12/1 Wishfull Thinking
14/1 Lake Legend 14/1 Spirit River, 16/1 James De Vassy
16/1 On Raglan Road, 16/1 Silk Affair, 20/1 City Theatre
20/1 Hampshire Express, 20/1 Mamlook, 25/1 Andytown
25/1 Naiad Du Misselot, 33/1 Ballyvoile, Chicago Grey
33/1 Gold Award, 33/1 Micheal Flips, 33/1 Silverhand
40/1 Chief Yeoman, 40/1 Eleazar, 40/1 Silk Hall
40/1 Takeroc, Good Old Thyme, 50/1 Racing Demon
66/1 Ring The Boss, 66/1 Tullamore Dew.


* The Coral Cup is a 2m5f Handicap
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992
* QUANTITATIVEEASING has statistical problems
* We know 5 year olds are just 1-78 in this race
* Recent winners had 9-5-32-8-8-25-5-3-9-16-14 races
* He only has 4 races and looks inexperienced
* Especially as just 3 came over hurdles
* Horses second last time in this race were 0-62
* Thats more a novelty stat but he fails it
* He comes from a Novice Hurdle like just 1 past winner
* That horse had prior Grade 1 form
* I just dont see a profile thats safe enough
* SPIRIT RIVER is another 5 year old
* With a 1-78 record for this age group I'm unconvinced
* No horse came from a 2m handicap hurdle like him
* Those that won all had more experience
* None of them were 5
* None were beaten as far as he was last time
* LAKE LEGEND only has 1 real problem
* He has been off the track 81 days
* A worrying absence for a horse with a high weight
* SILK AFFAIR has to go as a 5yo mare
* SILK HALL doesnt appeal aged 5
* Not coming from a prep race on the sand
* JAMES DE VASSY doesnt appeal aged 5
* Not with a longer absence than any English winner
* SHADOW DANCER has the same issue
* He is 5 and has an absence of 98 days
* English horses havent done well with absences
* ON RAGLAN ROAD has been absent too long
* Novice Hurdlers have underperformed
* WISHFULL THINKING comes from a Novice hurdle
* CITY THEATRE comes from a Novice hurdle
* GOOD OLD THYME comes from a Novice hurdle
* CHICAGO GREY is hartd to fancy with topweight
* Especially up in trip and with an absence
* ANDYTOWN also has a high weight and an absence
* I dont think he has the right profile
* MICHEAL FLIPS has more weight than ideal
* No 6yo won with that weight
* Several of these look too out of form
* RING THE BOSS -TULLAMORE DEW are out
* RACING DEMON isnt running well enough
* ELEAZAR shouldnt be fit
* I cant see a reason to bet BALLYVOILE
* Only 1 winner was aged 10 or more
* He was unexposed and Irish
* CHIEF YEOMAN doesnt appeal as an exposed 10yo
* He was also well beaten in this last year
* I feel the same about TAKEROC
* NAIAD DU MISSELOT shouldnt be fit enough
* SILVERHAND looks weak up in trip with an absence
* MAMLOOK looks vulnerable with his weight
* No 6yo had his weight and no exposed horse did
* He doesnt look well treated at the moment
* He doesnt have a good record here either


S T R O N G E R P R O F I L E S


* DEUTSCHLAND has a reasonable profile
* He is a little more exposed than I would like
* I am not totally convinced about him
* He could be vulnerable to a lighter raced horse
* Have to make him a positive in light of the opposition

* SIR HARRY ORMESHER has an excellent profile
* I looked at horses like him with this profile
* Winning Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f last time
* Aged 7 or 8
* Just 2-3 runs this season
* Carrying 11st or lower
* There were 3 horses that had that profile
* They finished W W 3
* The 1997-2008 winners had that profile
* SIR HARRY ORMESHER looks a strong option


* GOLD AWARD may need another run this year
* Not too dissimilar to the 2008 winner
* The ground is a big help

* HAMPSHIRE EXPRESS comes out as a possible
* Change of stable could improve him massively

SELECTION

SPLIT STAKE BET

HAMPSHIRE EXPRESS 20/1
SIR HARRY ORMESHER 14/1

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CHELTENHAM 4.40

Fred Winter Juvenile Novices´ Handicap Hurdle
Grade 3 (CLASS 1)(4yo) 2m110y

11/2 Notus De La Tour, 6/1 Sanctuaire, 8/1 Hunterview
11/1 Open Day, 12/1 Bothy, Son Amix, 16/1 Cross Appeal
16/1 Doctor Deejay, Stormy Weather, 20/1 George Nympton
20/1 Ned Of The Hill, 25/1 Causeway King, 25/1 Diktalina
25/1 Fin Vin De Leu, 25/1 Kudu Country, 25/1 Loch Long
25/1 Shanrod, 25/1 Stars Du Granits, 33/1 Baccalaureate
33/1 Orsippus, Theologist, 40/1 Bocamix , Prince Pippin

This is going to be a struggle. It's a Novice Handicap
Hurdle for 4 year olds and we are limited by the fact it
is a race with just 5 renewals and there are no similar
races elsewhere to try and support the stats. There is
a horrendous sized field as well to cope with so Luck
will be the biggest factor. I am going to apply all the
limited number of trends I have and see what sort of
shortlist that leaves me with.

HUNTERVIEW comes from a maiden hurdle and no
past winner did that and he also has a 78 day break
in a race all past winners ran within a month. It may
hurt him not having a run in the Imperial cup. It may
be relevant that horses absent 7 weeks or more had
just 1 runner placed in the 5 renewals. None won as
we know but only 1 placed as well and that could be
a problem for NOTUS DE LA TOUR whose only had
1 run in England anyway. SON AMIX isnt quite right
from a maiden hurdle and having more runs than any
past winner. I felt there were 3 runners shortlistable

OPEN DAY - FIN VIN DE LEU -SANCTUAIRE

I cant pretend I am not worried that SANCTUAIRE
has just 1 run in England and 2 in France. I Cant be
sure what that means but it does not sit well with me.

OPEN DAY and FIN VIN DE LEU were 1st and 2nd
in the same Sandown race in Febuary. OPEN DAY
won that race well but FIN VIN DE LEU has since
come out and won by 15 lengths. I like this pair best.

SELECTION

OPEN DAY 14/1
FIN VIN DE LEU 28/1

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CHELTENHAM 5:20

Weatherbys Champion Bumper
(Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1)(4-6yo) 2m110y

7/1 Elegant Concorde, 7/1 Shot From The Hip, Drumbaloo
9/1 Al Ferof, 9/1 Hidden Universe, 10/1 Day Of A Lifetime
10/1 Tavern Times, 14/1 Bishopsfurze, 14/1 Frawley
16/1 Up Ou That, 20/1 Shannon Spirit, 25/1 Dare Me
25/1 Dunraven Storm, 25/1 Made In Time, 25/1 Megastar
33/1 Cue Card, 33/1 On His Own, 50/1 Bubbly Bruce
50/1 Carpincho, 100/1 Sheer Genius, 100/1 Basford Bob
150/1 Back At The Ranch, De Forgotten Man, Super Villan.

The Bumper is a nightmare race and not one that I can
throw a lot of light on. There doesnt seem the confident
noise there usually is about the Willie Mullins horses in
this race. I have applied my statistics to the race much as
I dont expect much from them. I do not like AL FEROF at
all. HIDDEN UNIVERSE wouldnt make any appeal from a
4yo bumper with 1 run. FRAWLEY and BUBBLY BRUCE
havent won enough of their runs. SHOT FROM THE HIP
lacks form in a big field. DAY OF A LIFETIME also lacks
form in a big field. TAVERN TIMES doesnt appeal aged 6
with just 1 career run and a lady rider. I wouldnt want any
English horse with 1 run like DUNRAVEN STORM. It is
possible BISHOPSFURZE had a rushed preparation with
a run just 3 weeks ago. I think DRUMBALOO comes out
reasonably well as does ELEGANT CONCORDE much as
I would have prefered both to have beaten a bigger field
of horses. There is not many other places I can go.

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet
DRUMBALOO 10/1
ELEGANT CONCORDE 7/1

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