No Account Bet


Backing off the analysis today. Keeping it short and
limited today. Circumstances have prevented me from
a fuller message. I dont think it is a Safe days racing
anyway and it is a message that is lacking detail and
insight. I have included the Statistics for Saturday's
Lincoln Handicap for anyone who wants to have an
advanced look at that race. That aside its a very quiet
day. Refraining from any top of the message horses
today. It is not a day I can give you anything strong.

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TODAY'S RACING


The two horses I backed yesterday ran poorly. I didnt
think they were account bet strength but dissapointed
how they ran. I think with CAVALRY TWILL it's easy
to put it down to the ground changing to heavy. The
horse hated the ground and couldnt cope. FREEZE UP
ran badly. I dont understand why they didnt run him up
at the front like they did last time. He made mistakes at
the back of the field and never got into the race. It just
surprised me to see him held up. Either way bad choices.


Feels like I am a bit Cold at the moment and not reading
things correctly. Then again I am not sure thats true. Its
certainly hard racing on bad ground but it was only my
final choices that were wrong at Cheltenham. No horses
won that shouldnt have done or that were negatives. It
was just picking the wrong one in a few races. The same
as yesterday. Take out the bets and the message did not
do much wrong. The main danger to FREEZE UP won so
the statistics worked there. I commented on 4 other races
at Southwell and everything went to plan there. Nothing
went too hideously wrong elsewhere so I think it is just
final choices and last minute decisions that are not going
our way. Its my fault not the statistics that are wrong.


ANTE POST STATISTICS

SATURDAY

William Hill Lincoln

* The Lincoln is a Class 2 Handicap over a Mile
* There has been 18 renewals since 1992
* There has been 58 similar races elsewhere
* Horses aged 7 or more have a 1-43 record in this race
* Horses aged 7 or more struggled in 57 races
* They had a 2-155 record
* Those aged 7 + with Group form were 0-51
* Those aged 7 or more that were Male were 0-150
* The only runners aged 7 + to be considered are female
* Horses aged 6 or more are just 3-123 in this race
* All 3 were exposed and seasonal debutants
* None aged 6 + had ran in Group races before (0-44)
* None of the winners aged 6 + had ran this season (0-41)
* They all came from Class 2 handicaps last year
* None of the winners aged 6 + had 9st 1lbs or more (0-34)
* Horses with under 4 runs have a 0-7 record in this race
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won 4 of the 18 Lincolns
* Exposed horses won 14 of the 58 other handicaps
* Those with prior Group Class form were just 1-95
* Those dropping from 9f or more were 0-100
* Those with 9st 5lbs or more were 0-112
* Exposed horses winning the Lincoln were all seasonal debutants
* Those that had run this season were 0-65
* Exposed horses aged under 6 were just 1-60
* Exposed horses that ran in Group Class before are 0-38
* Exposed horses that are Male have a poor 2-144 record
* Exposed horses beaten 10 + lengths last time are 0-50
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs carrying 9st 1lbs or more are 0-38
* Horses with 13 + runs that ran on sand this winter were 1-102
* Horses with 13 + runs that ran in Group Class before were 0-78
* Horses with 13 + runs that carried 9st 1lbs or more were 1-67
* Horses with 2 + runs this season were 1-57
* 6 winners came from the All Weather
* 5 of the 6 winners coming from the sand had under 13 starts
* Horses from the sand with 13 or more starts were 1-111
* All 46 aged 6 or more that came from the sand lost
* None of the Sand winners lost by 10 + lengths last time (0-37)
* None of the 6 winners from the Sand came from 7f or shorter (0-32)
* Only 1 of the 6 winners from the sand carried 8st 12lbs or more (1-49)
* Looking at the record of 4 year olds in this race
* Horses aged 4 are best with 4-20 starts
* Horses aged 4 already tested in Listed Grade or higher are 1-55
* Horses aged 4 that were absent 7 months or more were 0-18
* Fillies aged 4 are 0-18
* None of the 4 year old winners came from a 3yo handicap (0-19)
* None of the 4 year old winners lost 10 +lengths last time (0-44)
* Looking now at 5 year olds
* Horses aged 5 are best with 9-20 races
* None of the past 5 year old winners had ran in Group class before (0-23)
* Three recent 5yo winners came here having placed on sand within 2 weeks
* The LINCOLN winner has rarely run in Group Class before (1-99)
* In 16 renewals the only winner that did that was Babodana (2004)
* Horses running within 15 days won 4 renewals. They were :
* Male horses Aged 4 or 5 with 5-20 runs
* They also Placed in a Class 2 handicap last time
* They also ran over at least a mile are had under 9st
* Seasonal debutants they won 14 of the 18 renewals
* Apprentice Jockeys had a 1-68 record in the last 16 years
* In 18 renewals horses beaten 10 lengths or more last time had a 1-119 record
* All 18 winners had at least placed in their last 6 runs
* 16 of them had won in their last 6 races
* None of the 18 winners came from a Class 4-5-6 handicap last time out
* Horses from 6f races won in 1994 and 1995
* Both were seasonal debutants aged 4 or 5 and had 8st 6lbs or less
* Horses that came from 9f or more won 3 of the last 6 races
* None were exposed (0-43) or aged 6 or more (0-37)
* Horses that were in the Top 3 of the weights had a 1-58 record
* Horses with 9st 1lbs or more had a 2-97 record
* Both winners had under 21 starts and were seasonal debutants aged 4-5
* If a Horse has come 2nd in their last 6 runs - but not won its a problem
* These types have a 0-76 record
* Horses up in trip with fewer than 13 previous races had a 1-35 record
* No horse won this race coming from a 3 year old handicap before
* Horses with 9st 3lbs or more had a weak 2-80 record

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KEMPTON


Ducking Kempton as I usually do. Plenty of favourites with
long absences tonight. I would not want Lunar Limelight in
the 6.20 and would have made Marjury Daw favourite were
it up to me. Its the 7.20pm race that interested me most.


WOTASHIRTFULL is more than good enough to win a 0-79
handicap. I accept the race could be tactical but I think he is the one. There are 266 similar races. I looked at all exposed types like LORD OF THE REINS absent over a month and lacking backclass in Class 2 or higher and found a worrying record. I dont like his chance as much. OCEAN BLAZE has to go as a mare with a long absence. THE JOBBER is too old for his absence. I think WOTASHIRTFULL will reverse the form with Sherjawy and only STEEL CITY BOY scares me. He is the saver for me. WOTASHIRTFULL is the selection.


If there had been 8 runners in 7.50 I would have suggested
an each way bet on RUMOOL at 5/1. I think the favourite is
beatable and RUMOOL looks the best chance of doing that.


HAYDOCK

Some poor frames at Haydock and with the Advertised
ground probably innacurate It's a dangerous set of races.

In the 4.25 I am not persuaded by NEVERTIKA on his
seasonal debut. I think he is too much of a leap of faith
and cant find a similar winner. BENNY BE GOOD does
not come out that well either. AURORAS ENCORE is
weak with an absence and from a chase. No Mare won
absent as long as READY TO CROWN. I would have
wanted either a more recent run or one more run this
year for PREMIER DANE. I thought the two that stood
out best were SON OF FLICKA who I had down as the
2nd best profile. The best was KING'S REVENGE and
he would be my selection.


The 5pm is a Novice Huedle over an extended 2m 4f.
I looked at horses like PLUNKETT who had more than 4
runs over hurdles and found that those who had been off
more than 7 months were 0-47. Only horses with under 4
runs managed to win with long absences. I would avoid
him. WORTH A KING´S is an option but only comes via
a 4yo race and having not won before there were few of
his sort winning. GIFTED LEADER looks a little bit safer
but I thought SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM looked best.


HEREFORD


I dont like the card and have swerved it. I think several races have likely winners too short notably with Gamesters Lady 2.30 and Overlaw 4.50pm typical candidates. Neither of them are easy to oppose and neither great value.

My only negative in the 3.40 was Golden Button and that does not help enough to open the race up. I suspect one from either Mostly Bob (identical types are 1-1) or William's Wishes may win. Most interesting in the 4.15 was No Tears but I would be happier if the market spoke in his favour. Overall not a card I found much that interested me so leaving it alone.



W A R W I C K


I dont like any of the main runners in the maiden hurdle. I
just wish PLINY had ran more this year. Thats really what
bothers me about SILVER BLONDIN with 1 run this year.
I looked at all 2m 5f Maiden Hurdles at this time of year. I found that horses like SILVER BLONDIN with 1 start that
year in a Novice or Maiden hurdle struggled and those like
him with 2 or more career runs were 0-67. Considering he's
a 7 year old SILVER BLONDIN wouldnt be my choice from
a tight group of options. That said none of these are right
and none have the right profiles. Just as I was giving up
on the race I had a look at SILVER FOOTNOTE thinking he
probably had a weak profile and was surprised. I looked at
horses from Bumpers with 1 career run. When these horses
hadn't won a race and had an absence I found a suprisingly
good 2-2 record. One of these strangely came from Plumpton
as well as SILVER FOOTNOTE does. I wouldnt say he had
a brilliant chance or that he will win but I was seconds away from giving up on the race and found his type were 2-2 so considering Nothing else in the race has a good profile and considering SILVER FOOTNOTE is 25/1 and more He looks worth considering at minimum stakes.


There isnt much I can do with some of the Warwick races
later on. GULLIBLE GORDON (2.50) WILLIAM HOGARTH
(3.30) and NONO LE SAGE (5.10) are all long odds on and
hard to oppose and spoil their races.


WARWICK 4.05

11/8 Man Of The Moment, 9/2 Hever Road, 9/2 Quiet Bob
6/1 Gift Of The Gods, 9/1 Heezagrey, 16/1 Chico Time
20/1 Huckleberry, 20/1 Intense Suspense, 20/1 Le Briar Soul
66/1 Iloveturtle, 100/1 Mr Parson.

There are around 69 of these 3m 5f Handicap Chases at
this time of year. I'd be worried MAN OF THE MOMENT
lacks backclass for a horse with a tough weight. I would
have liked another run this year as well. QUIET BOB does
not interest me. I cant find a 7yo winner like him. Certainly none as lightly raced as him. I dont fancy QUIET BOB at all. INTENSE SUSPENSE has a horrible profile and has a long absence to overcome. HEEZAGREY is the right type of 7 year old and could go well but he hasnt done much in a long time. Interesting that all 69 similar winners had one thing in common. They had all finished at least 1-2-3-4 in one of their last 6 races. HEEZAGREY hasnt done that so there are flaws there. LE BRIAR SOUL also fails that and ILOVETURTLE does and I couldnt bet him or the outsider MR PARSON either. GIFT OF THE GODS is a mare and no mare won his age and what few won with his weight were diferent types. HUCKLEBERRY hasnt rally achieved much recently. HEVER ROAD has a chance but I didnt think he was a certain stayer. It looks wide open. CHICO TIME is the right sort of Mare and I would not underestimate her. She has just 5 chase starts but the last five winners had 7-8-1-9-14 chase runs so exposed chasers didnt dominate. She hasnt ran that well recently and her jumping has to be a concern. I think I would shortlist CHICO TIME with natural reservations about her jumping. If she does not click then I wouldnt see a horse with a strong profile so I would be forced to guess. I will go with CHICO TIME.


The 4.40 is a Mares Handicap hurdle. There are only 7 of
these races in March so there isnt enough evidence for a
comprehensive view. I can tell you that all 7 winners had
between 5-20 career starts. Most winners and all 4 winners
of this race had at least 4 runs that season. They all had a run within 7 weeks. They were all 1-2-3-4 last time out. Its a race 6 year olds do best in. I didnt think I had enough angles in this race so bailed out.

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