Daily Recommendation

No Bet Today

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REVIEW OF YESTERDAY

Much better effort yesterday. In terms of a strong bet it was another quiet day and The head still hasnt been put over the parapet yet but a good solid message to build from yesterday. We ended up with 4 winners and 9 losers in the message but it showed an overal profit and the two horses that I highlighted as my best bets from the message both won. DORABELLE at Sedgefield won well and ENDAXI MANA MOU won easily at 3/1 a far bigger price than expected. Hoping we can get back to some decent form now weather permitting of course.

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS


Seven Previews today. Most of these at LINGFIELD and
4 handicaps there with the usual disclaimer that the track
and frame of handicaps there mean we are ever reliant on
a bit of luck. WETHERBY is not a card I can do too much
with and just one race there. CHEPSTOW has 2 races but
its much more an All weather dominated message today.

The opening two Chepstow races interest me mainly as
there is a clear preference for RILEYEV in the 1.10pm
rather than the favourite and I'm interested to see if he
can win this race and show the angles are correct here.

I am also very interested to see whether my angles that
suggest I should oppose the 5 year olds in the 1.40 pm
Novice Handicap Chase. I like MR BOND each way of
the remaining options. I hope the fences dont prove a
bit too stiff for him but the frame of the race is decent
and with 3 fancied 5 year olds looking weak in the race
I'll be wanting them beaten and hope MR BOND does it.

The Lingfield card has options but always a problem at
this track in convincing yourself that you have made a
strong enough case for anything. I think my best bet at
Lingfield is TISLAAM in the 12.30 race each way.

These 3 horses are the better options in my view from
the message and I am narrowing that down to 2 bets as
I did yesterday. These two just dont feel strong enough
for Full Bets so staying with lower staked mentions.


Today's Suggested Bets


CHEPSTOW 1.10 - RILEYEV 15/8 Win Bet

LINGFIELD 12.30 - TISLAAM 6/1 Each Way

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TODAY'S RACING



LINGFIELD 12.00

All-Weather "Hands And Heels"
Apprentice Series Handicap (CLASS 6)
(3yo+ 0-58) 7f

9/4 Bollywood Style, 6/1 Batchworth Blaise, 6/1 Marksbury
8/1 Rainsborough, 10/1 Dontforgeturshovel, 10/1 Grey Boy
14/1 Ymir, 16/1 Gifted Lady, 16/1 Lord Deevert, 20/1 Crystallize 20/1 Pab Special, 20/1 Young Simon, 33/1 Dilys Maud.

This is an Apprentice Handicap over 7f. There are only 11
of these races in November so hardly anything to help from
a statistical point of view. What you can say is that from 11 races there were 10 winners sharing the same profile. All of them had at least 9 career starts and at least 6 runs that year. They all ran within a month or so and had a previous win in their careers. They all managed at least a place in one of the last 6 runs they had. This leaves 2 horses best placed to win based on the 11 Apprentice races. BATCHWORTH BLAISE and BOLLYWOOD STYLE look the best profiles. Both ran in this race last year when both had poor profiles last year. I think the edge is with BATCHWORTH BLAISE. Although BOLLYWOOD STYLE has the recent run She also has to go up in distance not a positive by any means and she does that when ridden by a jockey with a 0-30 record with all his rides. I'd rather be with BATCHWORTH BLAISE without having to go up in distance and with a far more proven jockey. The best bet here may be BATCHWORTH BLAISE each way.

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LINGFIELD 12.30

Bet In Running - Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-70) 6f

3/1 Paphos, 5/1 Mango Music, 6/1 Riflessione
6/1 Tislaam 10/1 Boragh Jamal, 12/1 Clerical
12/1 Sherjawy, 12/1 White Shift, 16/1 Highland Harvest
25/1 Pilgrim Dancer, 25/1 Wellington Fair.

This is a 6f Handicap for 0-70 rated horses. There are 134
similar races at this time of year. PAPHOS won again last
time and has now won 3 of his last 4 races all at 7 furlongs. Clearly an improving 3 year old his test will be how he gets on back at 6 furlongs. I wasnt keen on his profile. I looked at all 3 year olds down in trip without backclass in a Class 3 race or better like PAPHOS. Those with under 13 runs like him were 1-15 but that winner was a sligtly different type with less weight and didnt win last time. Not convinced he is drawn that well either. Fillies aged 3 have awful records and BORAGH JAMAL has been absent too long. I couldnt bet the 3 year olds PILGRIM DANCER who hasnt achieved enough or WELLINGTON FAIR badly underraced this year. Exposed horses aged 6-7 like SHERJAWY coming from a 6f handicap had a poor record. The Males with that profile and no form beyond a Class 2 race were 0-46 and Thats not a good enough profile to go with SHERJAWY when you also consider his weak draw and the fact its not his time of year. HIGHLAND HARVEST fails the same statistic with the same profile. WHITE SHIFT also looks one to oppose. There are 4 horses I can shortlist which is rather too many to be safe.

SHORTLIST

RIFLESSIONE - Well drawn I cant rule him out
MANGO MUSIC - Just scrapes on the shortlist
CLERICAL - I found 1 very similar winner
TISLAAM - There are 3 similar winners

SELECTION

TISLAAM 13/2 comes out best closely matched to 3
similar winners and as he is fit and consistent and also
running well he looks the best risk for our money.

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WETHERBY 12.50

Book Raceday Hospitality On 01937 582035
Handicap Chase (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-115) 2m6f110y

5/2 Le Platino, 3/1 Nulato, 7/2 Rey Nacarado
5/1 Supreme Keano, 7/1 La Pantera Rosa, 14/1 Borero.

This is a Handicap Chase over an extended 2m 6f for horses
rated 0-114. There are 469 similar races at this time of year. Its a nasty small field and very hard to know what you have to deal with but I did not like REY NACARADO so felt It is a race I should progress with. I looked at the record of 5yo's like REY NACARADO that came from Hurdle races. There were only 2 winners in 469 races aged 5 doing that. Neither of these came from a Novice race like him. Neither had ran as many times before as he has. Neither had run this season as he has done and both winners that won had much stronger backclass as well so I feel REY NACARADO may be one to avoid. The problem is who with. SUPREME KEANO is hard to read. Many 8yo debutants like him have won first time but its also fair to say the vast majority were 1-2-3 last time and hadnt dissapointed on their last run of the year like him so I dont see him as any more than just acceptable. I do not want BORERO first time out. I'd oppose the above named horses.

SHORTLIST


NULATO is 7 and comes from Handicap Hurdles after a long
break and statistically It is not a large problem. He has a tough weight to carry but I've found winners like him and I see him as shortlistable. LE PLATINO has a good profile and there is no reason to think he isnt capable of winning and his chance may come down to whether he wants this soft ground and his hurdles win on heavy is reassuring. LA PANTERA ROSA is a solid option and he is fine. Picking one of these 3 looks the sensible option. My best guess is LE PLATINO and I go with him as all 7 winners of this race were aged 8 or older and the
others are 7yo's. Therefore it has to be LE PLATINO.

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CHEPSTOW 1.10

Betfair Racing Excellence Conditional Jockeys´
Training Series Handicap Chase (CLASS 5)
(4yo+ 0-95) 2m3f110y

7/4 Flying Squad, 15/8 Rileyev, 5/1 Manmoon
7/1 Lukie Victor, 10/1 Littleton Aldor.

* This is a Handicap Chase just short of 2m 4f
* There are 153 similar races at this time of year
* LITTLETON ALDOR doesnt appeal
* Not aged 10 up in trip and hammered last time
* LUKIE VICTOR looks vulnerable with his absence
* MANMOON has to be considered
* I thought he had enough in his favour to respect his chance
* I found some interesting angles with the market leaders
* Not sure if they will work out but they seem decisive
* RILEYEV has a far better profile than FLYING SQUAD
* FLYING SQUAD is 6 and has no Graded Class form before
* Horses aged 6 with that profile had a 3-97 record
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-31
* FLYING SQUAD doesnt come out as well as I'd have thought
* In contrast RILEYEV comes out surprisingly well
* Horses aged 5 coming from Handicap Chases
* One run this season
* Between 7 and 20 career starts
* Carrying 11st 10lbs or more
* Beaten more than 12 lengths last time out
* Horses like RILEYEV with that profile were 2-2
* I think RILEYEV has the best chance

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CHEPSTOW 1.40

Weatherbys Bank Novices´ Handicap Chase
(CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-100) 2m110y

3/1 Roc De Guye, 9/2 Turn Up, 5/1 Mr Bond
5/1 Rimini, 7/1 Owner Occupier, 8/1 Douryna
10/1 Russellstown Boy, 20/1 Art Man, 33/1 Istron Bay.

* This is a 2m Novice Handicap Chase
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There are 75 similar races at this time of year
* The 5 year olds interest me in this race
* November has seen 90 similar races between 2m - 2m 2f
* Horses aged 5 have a 6-118 record
* Those with under 9 career starts were 1-63
* Those that ran in 2m races made up 0-49 of that record
* Lightly raced 5 year olds had a very poor record
* The only winner was the top class Nenuphar Collonges (2006)
* He won a Grade 1 race at the Cheltenham Festival and
* ROC DE GUYE is 5 and only has 6 career starts
* OWNER OCCUPIER is also 5 and has under 9 runs
* Horses aged 5 without form in Class 2 or higher struggled
* They had a 2-94 record in all similar races
* Both these came from a Novice race
* OWNER OCCUPIER doesnt do that and looks weak
* ROC DE GUYE also lacks the backclass for a 5yo
* RIMINI has the same issues as well
* He is a 5yo with under 9 runs
* RIMINI also lacks the backclass for a 5 year old
* With 3 runners aged 5 it may be hard to beat them all
* I dont like ISTRON BAY's chance
* DOURYNA is a seasonal debutant mare
* I found 2 winners with that profile
* Neither came from hurdles like her
* Neither came from 2m 4f or shorter either
* Cant match her well enough but she isnt a negative
* ART MAN didnt do enough last time
* RUSSELLSTOWN BOY is exposed aged 10
* He is from a Novice Handicap Chase
* I looked at all exposed horses from these Novice Handicaps
* None were aged 9 or more like him
* None had under 5 runs that season and he has 3
* Statistically he isnt right and he surely needs further

SHORTLIST

* TURN UP has done enough to respect his chance
* MR BOND is also well worth considering

There are 6 past winners if this race and all 6 were aged
6 or 7 and had ran at least twice this season. Both these
two horses fit that profile which reinforces them a little.
I'd go with MR BOND at 11/2 and save on TURN UP.

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LINGFIELD 2.40

Bet Champions League Football - Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 1m

9/2 Faithful Ruler, 11/2 Den´s Gift, 11/2 Santefisio
7/1 Duster, 7/1 King´s Colour, Saharia, 10/1 Final Verse
14/1 Master Of Dance, 20/1 Gala Casino Star
20/1 Humungous, 25/1 Follow The Flag.

* This is a 7f Handicap for horses rated 0-85
* There are 99 similar races in August
* DUSTER is a 3yo stepping up from 7f or shorter
* 3 year olds up in trip from all aged handicaps were 6-79
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 0-40
* DUSTER only has 7 runs that season
* Those 3 year olds without a run in 7 days were 3-74
* Those without a run in at least a Class 3 race before are 1-36
* We know that winner had more runs that season
* Those 3 year olds with under 2 career wins were 0-22
* DUSTER has a bit to prove in my view
* SAHARIA has a similar profile aged 3 up in trip
* He also has limited backclass and less than 9 runs this year
* Absent 55 days SAHARIA also has a bit to prove
* SAHARIA and DUSTER are similar and unimpressive
* They are both drawn in stalls 1 and 2
* There were 27 Handicaps here in 2010 with 10 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1-2 had a 1-49 record in these races
* I dont see either having brilliant draws
* MASTER OF DANCE is also a 3yo from a 7f handicap
* He is exposed and similar types had a 2-21 record
* Both winners ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt
* Both ran better than he did last time as well
* Both came from Better class races as well
* Both came from much higher in the weights
* MASTER OF DANCE fails 4 little angles
* Combined together he has a bit to prove
* Exposed horses won 52 of the 99 races
* None had under 5 runs that season
* FINAL VERSE fails that exposed with 3 runs this year
* November has seen 441 handicaps in Class 3-4-5
* Thats 441 handicaps between 5f and 12f in this class
* Exposed horses won many of these 441 races
* Those with 1-2-3 runs this season had a 0-87 record
* FINAL VERSE fails that angle and isnt for me
* HUMUNGOUS fails that with 1 run this year
* GALA CASINO STAR is also underraced this season
* DEN´S GIFT is an exposed 6 year old
* He comes up in distance from a 7f handicap
* Horses like him with no Group class form struggled
* They had a 1-43 record in the 99 races
* That winner had a far more recent run
* DEN´S GIFT is a little unimpressive statistically
* FOLLOW THE FLAG is not a negative
* I havent found a similar winner though down in trip
* With an absence he wouldnt be top of my list
* Not with his career high mark as well


SHORTLIST

* FAITHFUL RULER has a decent profile
* Exposed horses aged 6
* Coming from an 8f Handicap
* Previous form in a Class 2 race
* No runs in the past 2 weeks but running within a month
* At least 7 runs this season
* Horses with that profile had a 3-10 record
* FAITHFUL RULER has a strong profile
* KING´S COLOUR is an exposed 5 year old
* He comes from a 7f handicap
* Horses with that profile had a decent 3-18 record
* None were entirely like him though
* All 3 had under 9st weight and he has 9st 5lbs
* Those with under 9 runs that year like him were 1-6
* Unlucky last time he is a strong runner
* SANTEFISIO is an unexposed 4yo up in distance
* He has never run beyond a Class 2 race
* He has been absent more than 2 weeks
* He has had under 7 runs that season
* Horses with that profile had a 2-2 record
* SANTEFISIO looks a strong runner in this

SELECTION

SANTEFISIO 7/1 Win Bet

KING'S COLOUR 8/1 Saver Bet

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LINGFIELD 3.15

Racing Post Pricewise Extra Expert Tipping Handicap
(Div I) (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-65) 1m2f

9/2 Room For A View, 11/2 Irish Jugger, 7/1 Atacama Sunrise
10/1 Chaqueta, 10/1 Collect Art, 10/1 Diamond Twister
10/1 New Den, 10/1 Prohibition, 10/1 Suntrap, 10/1 Usquaebach 14/1 Lingfield Bound, 14/1 Weald Park, 25/1 Cape D´or 33/1 Aphrodite´s Rock.

* This is a 10f Handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* There are 58 similar races run in November

I dont like the record of 3yo fillies in these races. So far 94 have run and just 2 of these have won. ROOM FOR A VIEW looks vulnerable as a 3yo filly. None like her came from any maiden and with 3 runs she has far fewer runs than any winner of her age and sex and she isnt for me. CHAQUETA is also a 3yo filly to avoid from a maiden and with a long absence and USQUAEBACH doesnt appeal for similar reasons. SUNTRAP is too inexperienced. CAPE D´OR has a weak profile. I think APHRODITE´S ROCK and WEALD PARK are underraced this season. NEW DEN has been off too long for a 3 year old. PROHIBITION is too out of form. COLLECT ART is 3 and comes from a 7f handicap something no 3 year old has done and going up 3f in distance could catch him out. I wouldnt be making ATACAMA SUNRISE a negative but she's an exposed 4yo filly and not many winners were and only one with such little backclass as her and that horse didnt win last time and I was underwhelmed with her. LINGFIELD BOUND was just
beaten too far for a similar 3 year old and not for me.

SHORTLIST

DIAMOND TWISTER has a reasonable profile and
is like a couple of winners and taking a drop in class
should be seen as a potential winner. An unorthodox
profile but IRISH JUGGER has to be shortlisted with
a great record of 3yo last time out winners like him.

SELECTION

DIAMOND TWISTER each way

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