Monday October 4th

Daily Reccomendation

1 Bet Today

Warwick 4.20

ONE SCOOP OR TWO 14/1

Win Bet

16/1 Skybet Boyles
14/1 Bet365 -Tote -Betfred -VC -Blue Sq
14/1 Stan J - William Hill - 888sport

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS


Today's message is a bit disjointed and may read a bit
rushed at times. Partly to do with 3 inspections today
which has not helped. Then the usual non runner issues
on bad ground. Some previews are more detailed than
others and overall I would have liked to have done a
bit more and beefed it out a little but for a Monday it
will have to do when the conditions are so dangerous.


WARWICK

I think I have a big chance in the 2.20 with a win bet
on Grissom and Saver on Spitfire but I am questioning
whether I have enough value in the race especially as
I want a saver and in the end I've decided to leave it.

I have backed ONE SCOOP OR TWO in the 4.20pm
race. Losing bet for me 2 runs ago. Had excuses that
day. Has run well since. Has a strong profile in a race
I have shortlisted only 3 horses. He is a ridiculously
big price at 14/1 and more and I've had a win bet as
I see him making all and trading far lower in running.

The only other option at Warwick was in the 5.20pm
race and Marcus Anonious. I'm leaving him alone as I
have missed the price and not convinced my statistics
are that good anyway in the race so I'll watch him.


WINDSOR

Annoyed my best negative in the 3pm is a non runner
and I havent got much here as I did not spend as much
time here as the other meetings. I have a system that
I bet to small stakes and thats Michel Pescod's runners
in 2yo maidens second time out as he has a good record
and often has big priced winners so SERGEANT TROY
is a horse I have had to have a nibble on in the 4.00pm

The Claimer at Windsor (5pm) also interests me and I
see ESSEXBRIDGE as a good thing despite there being
little proven evidence he wants the ground soft. That's
not enough to put me off and I think he will win.


PONTEFRACT

I think ULLSWATER will win the 2.10pm maiden but
I didn't think I needed to bet a maiden at even money
so will resist the temptation. I feel the same about the
short priced SAND SKIER in the 3.10. Maybe not the
most sensible risk to be betting short prices on ground
as bad as this so leaving these horses as mentions.



PERSONAL BETS

Windsor 4.00 - SERGEANT TROY 14/1 +

Warwick 4.20 - ONCE SCOOP OR TWO 14/1

Windsor 5.00 - ESSEXBRIDGE 2/1


Its very likely we will start the week with a loser as
it's asking a lit to get a 14/1 winner home as a win
bet but I felt at the prices I had to go with him.

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REVIEW OF LAST MESSAGE

It was one of those low key Sunday messages yesterday.
It started off my getting the Arc wrong and the earlier
National races were no better and it was shaping up to
becoming a horrible message. Some relief came with the
last two winners at decent prices and that saved it from
being embarassing and steered it to respectability which
was as much as I could hope for in the conditions.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G



PONTEFRACT 2.10

E B F totesport Day On Monday 18th October
Maiden Stakes (CLASS 4) (2yo) 1m2f6y


4/6 Ullswater, 11/2 Mahab El Shamaal, 13/2 Hurricane Guest
9/1 Mojolika, 12/1 She´s Got The Luck, 16/1 Rasam Aldaar
16/1 Subramaniam, 28/1 Astromagick, 33/1 Rainbows Son
50/1 Nay Secret, 50/1 Silver Writer, 50/1 Smart Violetta
66/1 Santorino, 100/1 Pinotage.

* This is a 2yo Maiden over 10f
* There are 17 renewals of this race
* There are 36 similar races elsewhere
* Unraced horses havent done that well in this race
* Not surprising as a marathon trip on a stiff course
* Since 1995 Unraced horses are 0-23 in this race
* MAHAB EL SHAMAAL is unraced and vulnerable
* HURRICANE GUEST is also unraced
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths in this race have a poor 1-82 recod
* In 36 other races these horses are only 3-165
* With 2 or more career runs these horses are 1-104
* MOJOLIKA -SUBRAMANIAM fail that
* SHE´S GOT THE LUCK - ASTROMAGICK also fail that
* This all leads to the likely winner being ULLSWATER
* Horses with 2 runs coming 2nd last time out were 6-13
* ULLSWATER looks hard to avoid

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WARWICK 2.20

Warwickracecourse.co.uk Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 6f

7/2 Grissom, 4/1 Green Park, 11/2 Westwood
6/1 Seamus Shindig, 8/1 Imperial Djay, 12/1 Requisite
16/1 Perfect Flight, 16/1 Protector, Spitfire, 20/1 Icelandic 20/1 Imprimis Tagula, 33/1 Coleorton Choice.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* There are 251 similar races at this time of year

* Horses aged 7 or more with 1-2-3-4 runs that year are 0-55
* That tells me ICELANDIC is underraced this season
* It tells me PROTECTOR is also underraced this season
* COLEORTON CHOICE looks too risky after his last 3 runs
* He could bounce back but it's hard to make a case form him
* IMPERIAL DJAY is exposed and absent over a Month
* He has no form beyond a Class 4 race before
* I looked at exposed horses absent a month
* Those with no form in Class 2 or higher were just 1-88
* IMPERIAL DJAY is not expected to overcome his absence
* WESTWOOD won a 6f handicap last time out
* His problem is that it was 34 days ago
* No horse had that absence after winning a handicap last time
* He could be well treated and I wouldnt make him a negative
* I think his absence hurts him and others come out better
* GREEN PARK also won a 6f handicap lasy time
* Horses doing that aged 6 or more have a 1-48 record
* GREEN PARK is 7 now and not well handicapped
* I will be surprised if he can with again off this rating
* I looked at exposed horses aged 7 or more
* Those that had no form in Group Class before
* Those without at least 9 runs this season were 1-117
* SEAMUS SHINDIG fails that and looks wrong to me
* Unimpressive profile and not an easy draw to ovecome
* PERFECT FLIGHT is an exposed 5yo mare
* I dont think he did enough last time

POSSIBLES


* IMPRIMIS TAGULA ran in a 7f Claimer 2 days ago
* That makes him a complicated horse to assess
* Horses from Claimers had a poor 2-121 record
* However they were both male and came from 7f claimers
* They were both beaten under 2 lengths as he was
* That suddenly makes him look fine
* His recent run is a huge help
* Against him is the fact he has no heavy ground form
* He has an inexperienced jockey as well
* IMPRIMIS TAGULA is a Possible though
* REQUISITE is an exposed 5yo mare
* There are winners like that and She looks a positive
* I will shortlist her on her profile which is fine
* She does keep missing the break though which hurts her
* She may have to have some luck in running to win

POSITIVES

* SPITFIRE is an exposed 5 year old
* He hasnt run in 2 weeks and comes from a 6f handicap
* He only has 1-2-3-4-5-6 runs this season
* Horses with that profile had a 4-27 record
* SPITFIRE looks to have a good profile
* I thought he shaped better than it looked last time
* GRISSOM ran well last time out in 3rd place at Chester
* I say that as he was a big negative last time
* He has a much stronger chance today
* I looked at exposed 4 year olds like him
* Those with form in only a Class 3 race before
* Those with under 9 runs that season
* I found a 2-7 record with horses like him
* GRISSOM is a strong positive

SELECTION - GRISSOM 7/2
SAVER - SPITFIRE 7/1

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PONTEFRACT 2.40

Ron And Joan Senior - Lifetimes In Racing
Nursery (CLASS 5) (2yo 0-85) 6f

9/2 Jack Smudge, 5/1 Brave Dream, 6/1 Eilean Mor
7/1 Azzurra Du Caprio, 15/2 Robert The Painter
8/1 Rhythm Of Light, 8/1 Ted´s Brother, 10/1 Lizzie
20/1 Las Verglas Star, 33/1 Clipthorne 40/1 Last Destination.

* This is a 6f Nursery for 0-82 rated horses
* Pontefract have 19 renewals of this race
* There are 200 similar races elsewhere
* JACK SMUDGE wouldnt be my choice from a 5f race
* He is the only horse doing that in this race
* Horses doing that in this race had a 1-50 recod
* I looked in 200 other races for Male horses like him
* Males winnig 5f handicaps last time were 0-10
* JACK SMUDGE looks the wrong favourite to me
* RHYTHM OF LIGHT has 2 runs from a Listed race
* None of the 200 winners had a profile like that
* ROBERT THE PAINTER comes from a 6f Nursery
* None of the 200 winners did that with 2 career runs
* CLIPTHORNE - LAST DESTINATION come out badly
* TED´S BROTHER doesnt apeal from an Auction maiden
* LAS VERGLAS STAR didnt do well enough last time
* LIZZIE looks wrong and has ground issues
* They would be my main negatives in the race
* AZZURRA DU CAPRIO is shortlistable
* EILEAN MOR is shortlistable but lacks a bit of backclass
* BRAVE DREAM comes out best and is my choice

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PONTEFRACT 3.10

I think SAND SKIER should win this race with his run
3 days ago and I wouldnt see a better option in the race.

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WINDSOR 4.00

I would take a chance on SERGEANT TROY at a big
price. Always worth watching Micheal Pescod's 2yo's
second time out at big prices and he will run very well.

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WARWICK 4.20

Koko´s Bar Student Nights - Tuesday & Thursday Handicap
(CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-75) 1m22y

5/1 Ours, 11/2 Madame Excelerate, 7/1 Ken´s Girl
15/2 Song To The Moon, 8/1 Bidable, 10/1 Slugger O´toole
10/1 Supa Seeker, 10/1 Wild Rockette, 12/1 One Scoop Or Two
12/1 Starry Mount, 16/1 Final Verse, Zambuka, 20/1 Lordship
20/1 Swiftly Done, Koraleva Tectona, 50/1 Very Well Red.

This is a Mile Handicap for 0-75 rated horses. There are 358 similar races at this time of year. I'd oppose FINAL VERSE and KORALEVA TECTONA with 1 run this season. Others
with poor profiles incluce WILD ROCKETTE a well beaten
filly last time. VERY WELL RED come sout badly. I do not
like KEN'S GIRL's chance winning last time as a mare facing
a 37 day absence. Horses from 7f races with just 1-2 runs this season had a 1-96 record and none like SLUGGER O´TOOLE had more than 9 runs and he comes out badly. LORDSHIP has a poor profile. OURS comes out badly as an exposed 7yo who won a 7f handicap last time. SWIFTLY DONE doesnt have the backclass a 3yo needs. ZAMBUKA is the wrong type of 3 year old. STARRY MOUNT has too much against him as a 3yo with an absence. SUPA SEEKER is too inexperienced as a 4 year old. BIDABLE is too old and lacks the backclass for an exposed mare without a recent run.

* MADAME EXCELERATE - Shortlistable and a fair profile
* SONG TO THE MOON - Shortlistable and a fair profile
* ONE SCOOP OR TWO is another decent option

I fancied ONE SCOOP OR TWO at Haydock two runs ago
and he flopped. After that race I said the evidence was he
went off too fast and thats why he was beaten so far. He's
since run well at Wolverhampton proving he is still able
to go close from his mark and is running well enough. Its
not impossible he could bounce back in this race and I do
like his profile and found a very strong record as follows.

* Horses aged 4
* 13 or more career starts
* Form in Class 3 but no higher
* Running within 4 days
* Beaten under 4 lengths last time out
* Carrying 8st 12lbs or more
* There were 6 horses with that profile in 358 races
* They finished W 3 W 4 2 W
* ONE SCOOP OR TWO should not be underestimated

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WARWICK 4.50

If I had done this race I would have opposed the favourite
REALISATION as a 3 year old with just 2 runs this year.
It wasnt a race I could be confident about statistically and there are complicated issues but on the balance of angles I'd have oppose him. FAITHFUL RULER was an option
as is RED MERLIN and I'd have gone with one of those.

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WINDSOR 5.00

7/4 Urban Space, 15/8 Essexbridge, 8/1 Markhesa
9/1 Cut The Cackle, 14/1 Dane Cottage, 33/1 Dalrymple
33/1 Foxtrot Bravo, 66/1 Guppy´s Girl, 66/1 Improper
66/1 Mouchez, 100/1 Belvidera.

This is a Claiming race over 10f and there are 91 similar
races at this time of year. This looks a match. I certainly
couldnt have CUT THE CACKLE as a filly coming from
a 5f race and now in a 10f race. She looks impossible to
fancy. I can only see 2 winners. URBAN SPACE is a 4yo
male coming from a 10f handicap without a run in 2 weeks.
Horses with that profile had a 1-13 record but that winner
was less exposed than he is and he had more backclass too.
I see ESSEXBRIDGE as the better bet. If you look at 3 year
olds like ESSEXBRIDGE winning claimers last time out in
the past fortnight with at least 6 runs that season they have a W W 3 W record from 4 runners. There is a doubt about the ground but I see him more as unproven than not able to handle it. Given the choice ESSEXBRIDGE would be a
much better bet and worth it despite not proven on soft.

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WARWICK 5.10

There are 58 of these long distance 3yo handicaps at this
time of year between 14f and 16f. Fillies like AFFINITY
coming from 3yo handicaps over 12f had a 0-40 record.
I think SHEIKHTOTHEMUSIC is wrong. Fillies from 12f
races and 5 or more runs like STRAVERSJOY are 1-55 so
she looks poor. SIR PITT didnt do enough last time out.
I see TOBERNEA as unproven as no winners came from
an 11f race to win this. Not a negative but neither has he
a good profile. ESCAPE ARTIST has a chance but having
a 37 day absence just puts him wrong statistically. I think
LIGHT THE CITY is a bit too exposed for a 3 year old
and ideally would have been lighter raced. Overall a messy
race with my choice MARCUS ANTONIUS each way.

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