No Account Bet


There will be no message tomorrow. I havent had a
day off for 8 days and feel stale and in need of rest.
With some poor weather coming tomorrow seems a
good day to take one. Will be around all day should
anyone want any Racing opinions tomorrow but no
message will be sent as its my best chance to break.

I have done a few Southwell races but the frames at
Southwell are not impressive at the moment and it's
got too many small fields and not really a meeting I
like much so confidence there isnt high. There's one
race I like at Sedgefield and I have previewed that.

I think I've chances in all of my 5 Southwell races
but I could just as soon have no winners as 2 or 3
and I do not think anything stands out. I suppose
the interesting profile is Esprit De Midas (3.50pm)
but its the Sedgefield race just before that at 3.40
that interests me most. I am betting 2 horses here

Sedgefield 3.40

BEAMAZED 8/1 Win Bet

TYRONE HOUSE 5/1 Saver

Hard to know much about either. I dont like any
of the other runners though and think there is a
fair chance one of these will have the ability and
improvement to beat a poor field. Hand on heart
I dont know enough about either of them and it
is a leap of faith but I do like the race and think
that whilst I am guessing a bit its worth a bet. I
have backed them both and that will do for me
on the day before a quick break.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G

Far from a Vintage message yesterday but there were a
couple of winners and an Account bet RAVI RIVER won
at 9/4 so pleased about that and starts the week well. It
was a panic free ride from the jockey who rode him very
well and in the end his fitness and class were too strong.



N A T I O N A L H U N T


Nothing much I like over the jumps today apart from the
3m 3f Handicap Hurdle at Sedgefield a race worth a look.



SEDGEFIELD 3.40

Totesuper7 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4)
(4yo+ 0-110) 3m3f110y

9/4 Do It For Dalkey, 4/1 Power Pack Jack, 4/1 Tyrone House, 6/1 Dukeofchesterwood, 7/1 Beamazed, 10/1 Solway Bee, 20/1 Oniz Tiptoes, 20/1 Polobury, 25/1 Copper Bay.

* This is a Handicap Hurdle over 3m 3f
* January -Febuary-March has seen 57 similar races
* Thats 57 races between 3m 3f and 3m 5f

In the 3 months between January and March there are 57
similar races to this. DO IT FOR DALKEY has issues for
me. I am going to try and oppose him on the grounds he
has raced just once this National Hunt Season and has
to step up from 2m 4f to 3m 3f with just one run. The 57
races show horses that had one run this season 0-47 so
DO IT FOR DALKEY has immediate issues to overcome.

Even if you look at 264 of these handicaps that were run
over 3m 1f and more - and include races at slightly shorter
trips you find a weak record. I looked at the 264 races for
horses with just 1 run this season that had to come from
a 2m 4f race as DO IT FOR DALKEY does. There were 5
winners that did that. However none had the absence he
has. 4 of the 5 winners had form in better grade. Those
like him without a run in a Class 3 or better race before
had a 1-43 record and dont forget thats at shorter trips
than this. No horse managed it at this distance during
these first three months of the year. Going back to the
264 races (3m 1f - 3m 5f) only 1 horse came from Novice
Handicaps as he does. Generally he needs another run
at least in my view. I wouldnt be laying him but there is
plenty for him to do considering he isnt a big price and
in a nicely framed race there looks a better e/w option.

Horses from Handicap Chases dont score well. I looked
at the 57 similar handicaps between January and March.

* Horses from Handicap Chases struggled
* Those without Grade 1 form in the past were just 1-55
* COPPER BAY fails that and has a long absence
* POWER PACK JACK also comes from a Handicap Chase
* No horse like him won a race like this doing that

Even Extending that to the 264 handicaps between 3m 1f
and 3m 5f horses from Handicap Chases did not do well.

* There are 264 races in 3 months between 3m 1f - 3m 5f
* Horses from Handicap Chases were just 7-235
* Exposed horses like COPPER BAY were awful
* None had the absence he has either
* In the 7-235 record 7 year olds were 0-32
* POWER PACK JACK fails that
* Take out the horses in the 7-235 with Grade 1 form
* POWER PACK JACK has been nowhere near that level
* The record then becomes 5-179
* Those like POWER PACK JACK with under 13 runs were 2-52
* Those that ran within the last 7 weeks were 0-34

Statistically POWER PACK JACK does not resemble any
horse thats won any of the 264 races and I feel its best to
oppose him. Thats without even delving into the Stamina
issue. He probably wont have a problem staying but his
sire (Rudimentary) has had over 1500 horses running in
the last few years and not one of them have yet won over
3m 2f or more (0-32) so it's not cast in stone.

POLOBURY has to go. There hasnt been an exposed mare
win any of the 264 races when just a Maiden and thats not
even going into the fact she is out of the handicap and has
been hammered just two weeks ago and its months since
her stable have had a winner. ONIZ TIPTOES is hard to be
with. He will hate the ground and I cant see him getting
home in these conditions. SOLWAY BEE is another mare
thats exposed. I dont fancy her at all. In the 264 races the record of exposed mares was bad enough anyway but not
one won when absent more than a month and she has been
off 80 days and I agree with the Racing Post that she will
not find it easy to cope with the lesser exposed horses.

DUKEOFCHESTERWOOD doesnt do it for me. I looked at
all horses with his profile in 264 similar races.

* Horses from 2m 4f Handicap Hurdles
* Horses with 9 + career starts
* The record of horses like that was 9-235
* Those doing it in Febuary were 0-73
* Those beaten 25 + lengths last time were 0-125
* DUKEOFCHESTERWOOD lost by 45 lengths last time
* Those that were not 1-2-3-4-5 last time were 0-108
* His sire hasnt had a winner over this far either
* I think there are better options

SHORTLIST

TYRONE HOUSE
BEAMAZED

In a race with some shaky profiles I think the two very
lightly raced horses stand out. BEAMAZED has had
4 Career starts. TYRONE HOUSE has had just 3 career
starts. I think one of these could improve past the rest.

TYRONE HOUSE is a winning Point to Pointer in Ireland
and has had 3 runs and comes from a Novice Hurdle last
time out. I have found a couple of similar winners to him
and much as we dont know much about him generally
its a profile that offers far more potential than most and
he only has a 0-105 handicap to beat. He is a big runner.

BEAMAZED is slightly more experienced with 4 career
starts. It may surprise you that I like a horse from a 2m
Novice Hurdle in a 3m3f handicap but as he is a lightly
raced horse I dont mind. In fact in the 264 similar races
whilst just two winners came from 2m Novice Hurdles
both winners had under 5 career starts and those aged
5 or more like BEAMAZED had a 2-7 record. I think its
good enough to make him very interesting in a race like
this. Throw in the fact his trainer Tim Walford has his
best record at this course and BEAMAZED is entered
all over the place this week. Both of these are a leap of
faith. They may not cope. They could be much better
than this grade. I do think at decent prices in a smaller
field like this they are worth betting.

SELECTION

BEAMAZED Win Bet 7/1


TYRONE HOUSE Saver 5/1



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SOUTHWELL 1.50

Arena Leisure PLC Amateur Riders´ Handicap
(CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-52) 1m3f

7/2 Bright Sparky, Jackie Kiely, 5/1 Cragganmore Creek
14/1 Candilejas 14/1 Flaming Blaze, 14/1 Key Partners,
16/1 Easy Wonder , 16/1 Nawamees, 16/1 Six Of Clubs,
25/1 Bernix ,25/1 Copper Sovereign, 33/1 Bansha.

This handicap is for Amateur riders over 11f. I have said
before I dont like 11f races here as they give me problems
statistically. I think its best to stay with all the 26 Amateur
riders races run at Southwell before. It's not a great sample size but at least they are identical races. The 26 races show that fillies struggle with a 1-75 record. No 4yo filly won like CANDILEJAS whose also from a maiden. No exposed mare won like EASY WONDER. I dislike the lighter raced types SIX OF CLUBS or COPPER SOVEREIGN who both look too inexperienced. I think some of these will fall for fitness like BANSHA - BERNIX - FLAMING BLAZE and also KEY PARTNERS whose been absent far too long for his age.

NAWAMEES is just too old for me as a 12yo who has to
overcome a heavy recent defeat. JACKIE KIELY is one of
the stronger runners but he is on a losing run of 27 and I
would much rather have a recent run for a horse aged 9 like him. BRIGHT SPARKY looks one of the best runners. He
comes from a Chase which makes him hard to read but he
won this race last year also coming from a chase as well
and that does take a lot of the worry out of that issue.
CRAGGANMORE CREEK is another past winner as he
won this in 2008 and I respect him this year.

SELECTION

I only see 3 horses I could go with and respecting both
Jackie Kiely and Cragganmore Creek I would rather take
last years winner BRIGHT SPARKY to win.

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SOUTHWELL 2.20

Bet Premier League Football - Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 6) (3yo 0-65) 5f

11/8 Billie Jean, 3/1 Turf Time, 5/1 Pavement Games
7/1 Lady Brickhouse, 12/1 Annia Galeria, 16/1 Young George
25/1 Sandy Toes, 66/1 Nidamar.

This is a 3yo Handicap over 5f. There are only 30 of
these races at this time of year. Statistically they are
frustrating races and dangerous and rarely do they
throw up a decent bet. I think NIDAMAR has been
off too long. I was surprised BILLIE JEAN had such
a weak profile. I looked at fillies like her coming from
5f handicaps and found a poor 1-34 record and those
like her with under 13 career starts were 0-30. That is
a worry and I would look elsewhere. Horses from 3yo
sellers with under 13 runs were 0-18 so I couldnt bet
YOUNG GEORGE doing this with 3 runs. There are
still 5 horses I would have to shortlist. All look fine
but would have looked a lot better had they'd just
had slighty different profiles. LADY BRICKHOUSE
and PAVEMENT GAMES come out quite well but
had they won a race before they would have looked
a lot better. ANNIA GALERIA comes from a claimer
and I would be neutral about her. SANDY TOES is
interesting but the winners like him were higher in
the weights and he is a lightweight. TURF TIME is
fine but fillies with his profile score much better in
these races than Males. Overall a typical messy and
unsatisfactory 3yo handicap. My gut feeling is the
winner will come from the race 6 days ago contested
by TURF TIME (2nd) who had Pavement Games (4th)
and Lady Brickhouse (6th) behind him. That was at
Kempton and last years winner also dropped from a
6f race at Kempton as well. PAVEMENT GAMES and
TURF TIME look best to me. Obviously the safest of
the pair is TURF TIME as he has form at Southwell
and PAVEMENT GAMES doesnt. What she offers
though is a slightly better profile and better odds. I
just think PAVEMENT GAMES could beat these so
I am going with her as a bit of value.

SELECTION

PAVEMENT GAMES

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SOUTHWELL 2.50

Betdaq On 0870 178 Selling Stakes (CLASS 6) (4yo+) 5f

7/4 Spic ´n Span, 2/1 Monte Major, 9/2 Guto,
7/1 Music Box Express, 10/1 Fasliyanne.

This is a 5f selling race. A small field and just 46 similar races at this time of year. There are some very fit types in this race and if there is a horse that could lack fitness it might be SPIC ´N SPAN with just 1 run since October last year. FASLIYANNE didnt have an impressive profile and as the only filly she wouldnt be my first choice. I am worried MUSIC BOX EXPRESS was beaten so far on his last run in a 6f Claimer. Several winners came to these 5f sellers from 6f Claimers but those beaten 6 + lengths had a 0-26 record and it would worry me he didnt achieve as much last time as he would need to do. In 46 races horses beaten 10 + lengths last time in the last fortnight did not score well. They were 1-52 and exposed types were 0-30 and that reinforces my view his last run hurts his chance. GUTO has a good chance and will be happier back over his favourite Course and Distance. Statistically he just shades it over MONTE MAJOR who lacks a recent run but GUTO hasnt been running as well as he can and its hard to judge what current form he is in. Because of this I just prefer MONTE MAJOR but it's a tight call

SELECTION

MONTE MAJOR

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SOUTHWELL 3.20

Back And Lay At Betdaq Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5) (3yo+) 6f

8/13 Loveinthesand, 4/1 My Mandy, 7/1 Ceto, 12/1 Blues Forever 14/1 Blades Harmony, 50/1 Wings Of Kintyre.

There isnt a lot I can say about this 6f maiden race. Much will depend on how much ability LOVEINTHESAND has. He hasnt
been seen since running in a hot juvenile conditions race. He was beaten by horses that would easily win this but he didnt actually beat anything decent and I would have been happier if he had. Statistically there werent enough horses like him to rate. He faces horses in BLADES HARMONY - MY MANDY BLUES FOREVER and CETO who have recent runs in maidens but who havent cut much ice in them and the standard they set isnt high. It makes it hard to nail the race down as there is one horse in LOVEINTHESAND who could be better than these and if he isnt then anything might win. Given the level of his opposition I think he probably will win

SELECTION

LOVEINTHESAND

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SOUTHWELL 3.50

Play Golf At Southwell Golf Club Handicap
(CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-90) 6f

2/1 Harlech Castle, 3/1 Esprit De Midas, 100/30 Bel Cantor
4/1 Onceaponatime, 20/1 Dubai Dynamo, 20/1 Tawzeea.

This is a 0-90 handicap over 6f. Again just a small field
and we have 121 similar races at this time of year. I'd be
against DUBAI DYNAMO absent 120 days and higher
in the weights than he has won before. TAWZEEA has
been absent 2 seasons and I couldnt find a winner like
him in these races. HARLECH CASTLE won last time
but I dont like horses that win and then have a months
absence and he hasnt ran in 33 days. I looked at every
horse like him that won and the only ones that defied
a months absence had form in Listed and Group class.
I couldnt make him a negative and he has only just had
a months break. I see some weakness there but its best
to simply say there is a better profile in the race. I dont
see BEL CANTOR as brilliant statistically. If you look
at all exposed horses aged 7 or more like him that came
from a 6f handicap in the last month you find that those
that didnt win that race like him were 3-117 and the three
that won were slightly different types. Statistically he is
not a negative but he is unimpressive. In terms of horses
that are Positives I see just two. ONCEAPONATIME is
fine statistically and I dont see any relevent weakness
in his profile. ESPRIT DE MIDAS has a good profile. I
looked at 4 year olds that came from 7f handicaps when
they had between 7-12 career runs as he does. Assuming
these horses were Male and starting under 20/1 and had
won a race before as he has done they had a 5-8 record
and finished W W W 3 W 2 W 6 from the 8 runners.

SELECTION


ESPRIT DE MIDAS 7/2

ONCEAPONATIME (Saver 4/1)

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