Friday November 5th

Daily Recommendation

No Bet Today


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REVIEW OF LAST MESSAGE

Backing everything in the message yesterday would have
probably seen you finish a bit behind on the day without
it being a disaster. I could have improved that with better
staking in some races. Not sure if this was poor judgement
or bad luck but some minor staking alterations could have
turned it into a winning message and I felt I got that part
wrong. If like me you stayed with DI STEFANO my main
choice from the message you will have got nothing from
the day. The horse was essentially dissapointing and just
hanged to his right so much he was never going to win it.
Another testing day and the right thing was going no bet.

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS


The messages this week havent shone as much as I'd have
liked and certainly no trees have been pulled up. I am not
saying they have been that bad but impossible to produce
Fireworks every day and we have had more than our fair
share of rockets and sparklers lately and I dont feel much
of the racing this week has given us many opputunities to
do anything exceptional. Quite happy to have kept things
quiet this week and I dont see much today to change that.

Today is a ONE race message for me and thats the 2pm
at Southwell. There are some other races mentioned and
some options discussed but I havent gone to town on the
supporting races. I have little interest in HEXHAM with
Heavy ground and small fields especially after inspecting
following 31mm of rain since Thursday. FONTWELL is
a weak care and there is'nt much at SOUTHWELL either.

It's the last day of the Flat tomorrow. I see Saturday as a
last chance this week to get a decent priced winner. I feel
I should spend more time on tomorrow's cards rather than
wasting time today on races that make little appeal so I'm
putting more time and effort into Saturday and todays is
mainly about the 2pm at Southwell and little else.

SOUTHWELL 2.00

ACE OF SPIES 25/1
EQUULEUS PICTOR 9/2

I think EQUULEUS PICTOR will win this race. I was hoping
for some 6/1 or even 7/1 and I'd have no hesitation in making him a full each way bet at that price. However he shortened to 9/2 and 4/1 last night. Understandably so given his chance but its annoying that the price has gone. Not only does it take so much of the value away it looks like I have just pinched this selection as it is the Money horse. I havent done that but his price now has taken a bit of the shine away from going strong.

So to does the presence of ACE OF SPIES as well who is 25/1
in places and bigger on Betfair. He has a serious profile for a horse at such a large price. I also liked him a lot on video last time. I do not think he will win at this trip. He may need this to be run a certain way for him to win this but I have backed him at a big price as he is simply far too big a price for a horse with an excellent profile and I have had to bet him as well.

I'm betting EQUULEUS PICTOR at 9/2 as my strongest bet

I'm having a smaller bet on ACE OF SPIES 25/1 to win plenty

I'm want a Place bet on ACE OF SPIES 5/1 to break level

In terms of a bet I am leaving EQUULEUS PICTOR alone as
there is now no 6/1 each way and the price has shortened.



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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G



SOUTHWELL 1.00

I´m A Goth Nursery (CLASS 4) (2yo 0-85) 1m

5/2 Makeynn, 11/4 Suddenly Susan, 6/1 Il Battista
6/1 Itzakindamagic, 7/1 My Mate Jake, 9/1 Fred Willetts
10/1 Beating Harmony.

This is a Nasty little Nursery over a Mile. There are 47 of
these races in November. None of the winners came from a
Claimer like BEATING HARMONY. I am also against any
horse from 6f or shorter as they have a 1-85 record so I'd
avoid FRED WILLETTS. All fillies that came from maiden
races over a Mile needed 6 runs and all 19 with fewer races
lost so SUDDENLY SUSAN is opposed. IL BATTISTA is not like a winner with his absence and step up in distance.
ITZAKINDAMAGIC is a filly from an 8f handicap. Fillies
with that profile and under 9 career starts were 1-34 not a
strong record and as her sire is 0-22 with all his runners at this track I wasnt that impressed. MAKEYNN comes from
an 8f handicap with 3 career runs. Only 2 horses tried that
and both were unplaced when fancied and he is unsafe. I'm
going to take a chance on MY MATE JAKE at a big price.
MY MATE JAKE - Has the only acceptable profile 8/1



FONTWELL 1.20

I thought this Novice Hurdle was too open as there were no
negatives at short prices. I ran these horses profiles through every similar race and found it full of positives. Horses with a profile like PRESENT TO YOU finished W W 3 F from 4 horses. KAUTO THE ROC's profile was similar to one horse who won. INGA BIRD is also a positive and the two horses with BAD SIR BRIAN's profile both won as well. Some good positives and not enough negatives. Any selection would be a guess but PRESENT TO YOU has at least proven himself at Fontwell and has hurdling experience so I'd consider him strongly and I wouldnt have a problem with an each way bet.


FOMTWELL 1.50

8/13 Easter Legend, 4/1 Dansimar, 5/1 Raise You Five
8/1 Cobbler´s Queen, 50/1 Dora Explora, 50/1 Sieglinde.

This is a Mares Chase. Impossible to be confident as none
of them have jumped a fence before. The big runners are
all excellent statistically as you want a horse aged between 5 and 6 coming from a Handicap hurdle last year just as all these do. The better record came from those that had under 13 starts and only Dansimar fails that. EASTER LEGEND is clearly the class horse and looks the one to beat but not for me at odds on. If I had to nominate a horse for second or for a place bet despite what I said earlier Dansimar might still be the one that throws down the bigger challenge.

SOUTHWELL 2.00

Bet Asian Handicaps - Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 5f

11/4 Efistorm, 9/2 La Capriosa, 6/1 Sloop Johnb
7/1 Lost In Paris 8/1 Equuleus Pictor, 9/1 The Nifty Fox
10/1 Colorus, 16/1 Ace Of Spies 16/1 Where´s Reiley
20/1 Benwilt Breeze, 25/1 Grudge, 33/1 Pawan.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-84 rated horses
* There are 92 similar races at this time of year

I want to oppose LA CAPRIOSA in this race. Not so much from
a statistical point of view although 4yo fillies from 5f handicaps were only 2-35 and none managed to win last time. I'd see her as unimpressive statistically rather than a negative but I do not like her draw in stall 1. There have been 10 Handicaps at Southwell in 2010 at this distance with 10 or more runners and none of the 10
winners were drawn 1-2-3. They were all drawn in stall 4 or higher and she may find it hard work from the lowest stall. Happy to be against BENWILT BREEZE drawn 2 and underraced this season as well. SLOOP JOHNB is drawn 3 another weak draw and as the record of all 4 year olds from 5f handicaps with under 7 runs that season was 0-35 I think he could be underraced this year with just 4 runs. Neither PAWAN or GRUDGE look horses about to win at
the moment. EFISTORM isnt easy to select as a 9 year old with a 66 day absence. No horse that old won a race without a recent race. I looked at every Handicap in November in Class 3-4-5-6 at all distances. That's 632 race. I looked at horses that had won a race last time out when absent more than 7 weeks. Those that were aged 6 or more like EFISTORM were 0-20. I opened those angles out to include a far bigger spread of races such as these.

* September -October -November- December have 1676 races
* Thats 1676 races over 5f - 6f - 7f in Class 3-4-5
* I looked at horses that won last time absent a Month or more
* There were 16 winners but none aged 6 or more
* Horses aged 6 or more with that profile were 0-81

This tells me EFISTORM has plenty to do having won over two months ago as a 9 year old and I'm opposing him as well. I dont see WHERE´S REILEY as safe. He has never won in this class or from his current 79 rating. WHERE´S REILEY is an exposed 4 year old who lost by 10 + lengths last time out in a 6f race. I looked at Horses with that profile and the only horses that won had higher backclass than he does and I think he will fall short.

* COLORUS is well handicapped and loves the 5f here
* Because of that I am shortlisting him
* Statistically there are better options
* I didnt like horses his age without a run in 2 weeks
* I only found 1 similar winner who was a higher weight
* I'd describe him only as Average statistically
* COLORUS gets some dispensation for track form
* LOST IN PARIS is an exposed 4 year old from a 5f handicap
* He lacks a run in 2 weeks and has no form beyond Class 3
* There was 1 winner like that in the 92 races
* Statistically he is ok but I see him more as a "Possible"
* He has to defy a career high mark which is never easy
* He is also unraced at Southwell so has to prove he acts here
* If the surface rides slow it may not suit this fast ground type
* THE NIFTY FOX has a complicated profile
* I found 2 similar winners in the 92 races
* Both these horses ran within 2 weeks
* THE NIFTY FOX doesnt but he only just fails that
* I'd give him the benefit of the doubt on that score
* He has ran just once here but did seem to like it
* I would have prefered more evidence of Southwell form
* He is on a career high mark as well
* Against some well treated horses it concerns me
* Thats why THE NIFTY FOX is a possible


SHORTLIST

ACE OF SPIES

EQUULEUS PICTOR

* ACE OF SPIES is an exposed 5yo male from a 5f handicap
* He has no form beyond a Class 3 race
* He has ran within the past 2 weeks
* He has 9 + runs this season
* He has 3 or more career wins
* Horses with that profile had a 4-8 record
* ACE OF SPIES has a strong profile
* The problem being the Trip
* All his Sand wins came at Further
* His only 5f win came in a far easier race
* He wasnts 6f and he could struggle to cope here
* His best chance comes if the leaders go off too fast
* He could then come late on deep ground and nick it
* I dont think he will but 25/1 is a ridiculous price
* I have had to bet him at that price to a small stake
* EQUULEUS PICTOR beat him easily last time
* I suspect he will again and he looks the best
* EQUULEUS PICTOR has a strong profile
* He looks well handicapped on his Southwell form
* His 5f Southwell form is 3 runs finishing 2nd 3rd 4th
* All 3 races were harder races than this is
* All 3 came with far higher marks than he has today
* Badly drawn last time I would have to select him

SELECTION

EQUULEUS PICTOR 5/1

Saver ACE OF SPIES 25/1

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HEXHAM 2.10

This is a Nasty Handicap Hurdle. I didnt like the profile of LINDSEYFIELD LODGE at all coming down radically from
almost 3 miles and fences when exposed. LE PETIT VIGIER
was another to avoid. DOLLAR EXPRESS doesnt appeal as
a 4 year old with that much weight and a poor seasonal debut run. My choice would be DEVILS DELIGHT.


FONTWELL 2.20

My choice here would be PANZER in an each way double. It did surprise me that there are so few 3m 3f Handicap Hurdles at this time of year. Only 5 in November and that makes getting a view statistically impossible. I looked at all of these races from October to December. I took the view that CALYPSO BAY was vulnerable over this far as a 4 year old. Only 1 horse that age won a similar race. I should say he was similar to CALYPSO BAY is that he had
several runs this season but overall I'd rather not have a 4 year old. With PANZER he had a superb profile apart from his weight and had he had less than 11st he would have come out very strongly. I didnt see anything great from the others and given the choice of a high weighted PANZR or a 4 year old in CALYPSO BAY it had to be PANZER but with the safety of the each way double.


SOUTHWELL 2.30

I would find it hard to oppose LUCKY PUNT in this 11f
Claimer. There are no similar races at this time of year so
its a stat free assumption. I did feel GRANDE CAIMAN as
he looks underraced this season. DIGGERATT looks shaky
as a filly coming up 3f in distance. It wouldnt surpise me to see KIMBERLEY DOWNS grabbing a place but in terms of
a selection I'd have to go with LUCKY PUNT and because
of the short odds it may be prudent to split stakes with half on KIMBERLEY DOWNS to place and the other half a win
bet on LUCKY PUNT. That feels a reasonable option.


HEXHAM 3.10

No strong profiles in this Novice Hurdle. I dont see much
strength in depth though. I hated CODE BLUE's chance so
want to avoid him. Not convinced with CORKY DANCER
either. I think the sensible bet is CHAPOLIMOSS but I see
him as an each way double bet as that should be safer.


SOUTHWELL 3.30

There are none of these 5f Conditions races at this time of
year so nothing statistical to go on. NOBLE STORM is now
odds on and it's hard to argue with that as he has something no other horse has. That's the Fitness and experience needed to win a race like this. Dont like the price. Dont see a sensible alternative so I think NOBLE STORM will probably win.

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