Tuesday September 14th

Recommended Bet

No Bet Today


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MESSAGE THOUGHTS

First message of the week and this is only a very short one
as I was struck down with a savage bit of flu on Sunday night and have not been right since. I havent the concentration at the moment for big messages. I will have to go through this message and maybe tomorrow's at a slower pace and it might be a couple of days before I can get back to any normality.

Not much I can do today. There are three meetings and the
softer ground will ensure it gets very testing at Haydock and Yarmouth. LINGFIELD is on the sand and to be honest I do not have the concentration to start looking at that. I have 1 race at Lingfield. Then a couple of comments to make at HAYDOCK and then its YARMOUTH. The bottom line is
its no more than a Makeshift message and I have not taken
it very far as I'm trying to shake a dose of Flu and that will mean I probably wont produce anything exceptional for a day or two and therefore urge caution at the moment.


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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G



LINGFIELD 4.20

This is the race at Lingfield that stood out to me as one
to consider betting in. I'd oppose the 4 year olds in this
as they are lightly raced. CURLEW and ZIP LOCK are
not dead statistically but horses like them underperform
and I'd rather go with something else. SUNSET KITTY
and FACT are unraced fillies and not strong in Maidens
like this. ENGULF has been bitterly dissapointing. He
ought to place but I couldnt match him to a winner so
I would prefer STREETS OF WAR each way. He looks
the best bet to me. I wouldnt describe him as certain to
place never mind win but he is too big each way for a
horse with his rating and profile and he has a chance in
an open race. I like STREETS OF WAR best each way.




HAYDOCK



There has been 21mm of overnight rain and I'd expect things
to be heavy here today. Not much I can do with many of the
races to be honest. Non runners in the first and the favourite is now SCANTILY CLAD but as a filly by Acclamation there could be a ground doubt. I'd rather risk CAPTAIN KOLO as a bet but he's unraced and I wouldnt be betting with confidence.


I wouldnt oppose CRUISER in the 2.30pm as none of his main
market dangers look soft ground types and neither have run so with CRUSIER coming from a decent race he ought to win this.

The 3pm looks unsafe and I can't shed any great light on this maiden. I'd be looking at the each way double option here and in a toss of the coin choice mine would be GENTLE LORD.


The 3.30pm Handicap looks a bit too difficult and has been hit with non runners. I dont want to be with FALASTEEN as every 3yo that won a race last time over 6f and that followed up had under 9 runs and he doesnt. LEWYN - SUNNANDAEG are both the wrong type of 3 year olds and so too is TRANSIT. I'd oppose PRAVDA STREET with his absence. LOCHAN MOR looks just unsafe and I couldn't find a winner like him. ESPRIT DE MIDAS is 4 and comes from a claimer and I could not match him to any winners and feel the same about BECKERMET from a seller. Its left me with 4 options. FEELING FRESH and RIO COBOLO are respected but SOLAR SPIRIT would be my choice. He comes out best in an open race. I dont fancy the rest of the card.



Y A R M O U T H



It is Soft ground at Yarmouth. I dont see any compelling
angles in the 1.40pm. I'm tempted with MAMA LULU in
an each way double but my gut feelimng is PANOPTIC
will probably win this.


For me to have selected HANDSOME JACK in the 2.10
I'd have wanted to find a similar winner from a similar 8f
Nursery. I did find winners with his profile coming from a
7f race but those like him with 3 runs from 8f races had a
0-14 reccord so I would rather look elsewhere. It's not my
sort of race and I don't trust my angles in these races but I'd have to look for a better priced bet like REGAL KISS.


The 3.10 is a low grade handicap over a Mile. I looked at
NOLECCE and decided I should oppose him as I could not
match a 3yo like him. The only 3 year olds that won last
time out came from 7f races and had 9 + career starts. In
fact look at the 84 similar Class 6 handicaps over a mile
during September and all 3 year old males with under nine
career runs were 0-99. NOLECCE - DESTINY BLUE and
FEAR FACTOR all fail that so I'd oppose these 3 horses.
ZEFFIRELLI has been absent far too long with 141 days
since a run. YANBU and MY JEANIE have unimpressive
profiles. MISS KITTY GREY does not come out well as a
filly from a 3yo handicap up in distance. FINAL DRIVE
needs more runs this season and I felt he was vulnerable.
I'd shortlist ATHBOY AUCTION and feel she does have
a chance but AL RAYANAH has the strongest chance for
me and she would be my choice.


The 3.40pm is the second division of the Mile Handicap
run at 3.10pm and there are 84 similar races at this time
of year. GEE CEFFYL BACH and KINGS ON THE ROOF
look opposable. So to does RED EDDIE as well. There is
no 3yo filly winning like LADY BRICKHOUSE coming
from a Maiden so I'd oppose her. LIBRE has been absent
too long for a 10 year old. FOOLS GOLD makes limited
appeal with a long absence. I don't like HELLENIO much.
Look at 3 year old males in the 84 races and those with
1-2-3-4-5 runs that season are 0-85 and that puts me off
him with just 4 runs this year. Horses aged 4 that had just
1-2-3 runs this year were 0-59 so HILLTOP ARTISTRY
has to go. I think EXOPUNTIA and ASTRODONNA are
the best profiles in the race. ASTRODONNA might be a
decent saver with EXOPUNTIA the stronger selection.


I wouldnt want to oppose DAFEEF in the 4.10pm. Not
when you consider his 2 main dangers in ROYAL ROCK
faces a big absence and BRAVE PROSPECTOR has only
1 run this season and an absence. DESERT PHANTOM
also has a troublesome absence and given all the issues in
this race I would not want to oppose DAFEEF.


The 4.40pm is a 0-85 handicap and we have 236 similar
races at this time of year. It looks wide open and there's
not many to avoid. SPECIAL QUALITY hasnt done as
much as I would want yet. I dont like COLORUS as He's
out of the weights. CANADIAN DANEHILL looks just
underraced for an 8yo. DORIC LADY is exposed and as
a mare from a 6f race. I didnt like her. Horses like her in
236 races without a very recent run struggled and only a
couple won having far more runs this year and I was not
convinced with her. MAGICAL SPEEDFIT isnt one I'd
want to be with not least on the ground. These would be
my negatives in this race. The remaining 5 runners are
all fine and I would expect one to win. ANGUS NEWZ
is not my choice. EQUULEUS PICTOR could run well
but the horse I liked best was LUSCIVIOUS despite his
big price. He acts on the ground and the Doncaster race
he comes from has 5 times produced the winner of this
race before so he is high on my list in an open race.


Not bothered about the last race at 5.10pm but I would
have looked for something to beat Jinto whose profile
I did not like. The race looks a nightmare to sort out.

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