No Account Bet


Saturday again. Plenty to say at Newbury and Thirsk
but dissapointed at some of the other meetings today.
Always seems a failure when Saturday passes without
an account bet but I shouldn't think like that really.


It is Lockinge day at Newbury. Purely on profiles I am
going to oppose the odds on favourite with ZACINTO
in this race. Not sure how realistic that is and he would
not appeal as an account bet with a long absence but it
is interesting that since this race was awarded Group 1
status 15 years ago None of the winners were similar to
the odds on Paco Boy yet an incredible 8 of the 15 that
won were very similar to ZACINTO so he's a decent bet.


I did the 4.15pm at Newbury yesterday afternoon and I
was getting very excited about PLUME until it dawned
on me that there was no hope of getting a decent price
about her in this race. She is as sexy as the come for a
filly in a handicap and I think she will win. Statistically
3 similar types ran in similar races and all 3 won as well.
It is just the price that takes the shine off her as a bet. I think the bet with these two is the each way double and that's my best bet today. I would have liked something
a bit darker elsewhere or a strong single but nothing is
coming to light and as I strongly fancy both of these I
think its worth an each way double as it pays so well.

Todays Best Bet

Newbury 3.05 - ZACINTO 100/30
Newbury 4.15 - PLUME 11/8

Each Way Double


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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G

No bet day yesterday. Had to wait until the last race for
the strongest advice and pleased that Ingleby Star won
for us despite drifting a bit in the market. I was surprised to see him win at 9/1 but win he did and although not an account strength bet it at least shows we are reading the racing well at the moment. Hope that continues today.



Newbury and Thirsk dominate today. There are very few
other races elsewhere that I liked. The National Hunt does
not offer me anything and Newmarket and Doncaster have
tough cards and complicated cards so I am reluctant to get
too deep into those cards.




NEWBURY 1.25


11/4 Lunar Victory, 9/2 Bay Willow, 5/1 Montparnasse,
6/1 Osgood, 7/1 Moose Moran, 10/1 Abrasive, In Your Time
12/1 Surface Tension, Banana Republic, 200/1 Daryainur.

Open Maiden race for 3 year olds and not much I can
say. I am uncomfortable LUNAR VICTORY lost by 17
lengths last time. In 24 renewals of this race all horses
with 1 run that year beaten more than 10 lengths over
10f or shorter like him were 0-55. I think I would try to
find an alternative to him. BAY WILLOW will go well
but with 2 runs this year doesnt come out as well as
the once raced horses and something may improve
past him. MOOSE MORAN comes out well and I will
go with him each way at around 6/1



NEWBURY 2.00

Totepool Aston Park Stakes (Listed Race)
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m5f61y

7/2 Claremont, 6/1 Blizzard Blues, 6/1 Heliodor, 6/1 Red Merlin 12/1 Centennial, 16/1 Bergo, 16/1 Petara Bay, 20/1 Sabotage 25/1 Balkan Knight, 25/1 Shipmaster.

The Aston Park Stakes is a Listed race over 13f. In the last 18 renewals 4 year olds lead 13-5 and have the advantage. If you look at older horses aged 5 or more none won with 1 race that season like SHIPMASTER. Seasonal debutants aged 5 or more must have Group class form so RED MERLIN has to go lacking that. None were absent as long as PETARA BAY. I would not want BERGO from Novice Chases. BALKAN KNIGHT has not done enough last time for an older horse. CENTENNIAL might run well as an older horse but this could be a 4 year olds year. Horses aged 4 with 1 run this season won 5 races but none of them had under 5 runs. BLIZZARD BLUES only has 3 runs and had a heavy defeat last time. HELIODOR comes from handicaps something rarely done and never by an exposed horse. I would shortlist SABOTAGE but his 76 day absence worries me as no past winner ran this year and had that absence. CLAREMONT looks shortlistable as well. Horses aged 4 like him stepping up
from a 12f race with 7 or more career starts running within the last month and having Group form had a 5-11 record. It might be significant that 4 of those 5 winners came from the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes just as CLAREMONT has done. Hard to know where CLAREMONT stands in relation to SABOTAGE from the same ownership and fron different stables but from a statistical point of view I think CLAREMONT comes out best.



NEWBURY 3.05

Totesport.com Lockinge Stakes (Group 1)
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m

5/6 Paco Boy, 100/30 Zacinto, 14/1 Lord Shanakill
14/1 Ouqba, 14/1 Pipedreamer, 14/1 The Cheka
25/1 Stimulation, 40/1 Prince Of Dance, 66/1 Kargali.

The Lockinge Stakes has an odds on favourite this year in
last years 4th PACO BOY. Like many I was impressed with
his win in the Sandown Mile. In 2009 PACO BOY won the
Sandown Mile and I opposed him in this race last year as
statistically there was a question mark. Horses that have
run this season have won 3 of the 15 Lockinge's and they
all ran in the Sandown Mile as PACO BOY has done. The
fact remains that horses winning at Sandown and coming
to this race have a 0-26 record. That has to be a concern
as it beat him last year. It was the horses that Placed last time at Sandown that won this race like THE CHEKA but
as he is lighter raced than any similar horse and that does
worry me. Given he is odds on and fails a big trend I think
it is worth giving ZACINTO a chance to win this race.

* Horses aged 4 first time out
* Between 4 and 12 career runs
* Previous Grade 1 form
* At least 3 Career wins
* Horses with that profile have a 8-16 record
* Its a better record than it looks
* 5 of the losers were beaten by the same type of horse
* ZACINTO has that profile and looks interesting
* Given the frame of the race I would be with him e/w
* ZACINTO each way is the suggestion.




NEWMARKET 3.25

7/2 Chiberta King, 5/1 Gordonsville, 7/1 Strathcal,
8/1 Mykingdomforahorse, 10/1 Royal Diamond, 12/1 Gala Evening 14/1 Keenes Day, 14/1 Moonbeam Dancer, 14/1 Swiss Act 16/1 Far From Old, 16/1 Judgethemoment.

Not that many of these 14f handicaps in a class as high
as this. We have only 42 sample races. KEENES DAY is
just not there as a debutant and I couldnt find one like him. I don't like STRATHCAL or MYKINGDOMFORAHORSE
as 4 year olds lacking backclass. For either to have been
like any past winners they needed either more backclass
less runs or more runs that year. They ae just not the right type of 4 year olds for me. MOONBEAM DANCER looks
wrong as a filly with a long break. JUDGETHEMOMENT
and FAR FROM OLD may need more runs and neither of
them did enough last time. ROYAL DIAMOND might not
have enough to defy topweight. I would shortlist three of
these. SWISS ACT has enough in his profile to consider.
CHIBERTA KING looks the best 4 year old profile in this
race. GORDONSVILLE looks the other potential winner to
me. I think one of that trip will win. If I had to pick one for a selection it would have to be CHIBERTA KING down in class and unexposed. CHIBERTA KING for me.



NEWBURY 3.40

9/2 Wildcat Wizard, 11/2 Striking Spirit, 8/1 Cheveton,
8/1 Coasting, 8/1 Shifting Star, 10/1 Arthur´s Edge,
12/1 Desert Phantom, Five Star Junior, 12/1 Pusey Street Lady 14/1 Baby Strange, 14/1 Beaver Patrol, 14/1 Icelandic
16/1 Macdillon, 25/1 Rileyskeepingfaith, 33/1 Baunagain
33/1 Spanish Bounty.

Short history to this 6f handicap. All 3 winners were
4 year olds. I didnt see anything with a brilliant profile
in the race. All I would say is there are 3 horses that I
felt were worth opposing. I don't fancy Striking Spirit,
Arthur's Edge or Desert Phantom and would make them
negatives. I would not select Cheveton - Beaver Patrol
Macdillon or Icelandic either. No selection.



THIRSK 3.50

Stoneacre Ford Handicap (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 1m

11/4 Cape Quarter, 7/2 Come And Go, 5/1 Handsome Falcon
5/1 Snow Bay, 6/1 Charlie Cool, 12/1 Arizona John
20/1 Johnmanderville, 33/1 Bucephalus, 33/1 Sacrilege.

This is a Mile handicap for horses rated 0-85. There has
been 254 similar races at this time of year. This race may
well be about CAPE QUARTER who is 4 and has not run
since winning a 3yo maiden last year which was only his
second start. I looked at every 4 year old like him coming
from a 3yo maiden and found a 0-33 record. It was only a
bad maiden CAPE QUARTER won as well so I would be
inclined to look for something at a better price given that
all 33 horses doing what he did last time lost. SACRILEGE
and ARIZONA JOHN don't appeal much. I dont think they
did enough last time out and may need more runs. I can't
find a winner like BUCEPHALUS down from 10f without
more in his favour. JOHNMANDERVILLE has not been
running well enough for a 4 year old thats exposed and
I don't like his draw either. CHARLIE COOL finished last
at Ripon last time and didnt impress me. I looked at horses
like him exposed and down in distance with a recent run
and found a 1-63 record. COME AND GO is a 4 year old
that won a 8f handicap last time. I looked at similar 4 year olds doing that. Those like him with 1-2 runs this year had a 1-22 record. I expected better than that and it included many beaten favourites. SNOW BAY is a 4yo male who
comes from a 7f Handicap. Thats a complicated profile
to assess as most winning 4 year olds doing it achieved
less than he did last time. Given some of the other horses
in the race and their problems I'd see SNOW BAY as one
to keep in mind and he's a positive. One of the best profiles in the race is HANDSOME FALCON. He has not yet won off his current mark but he is running well and has several opponents with issues. His stable are flying and I think it is a race he has every chance of winning. I think I should stay with the topweights in this race. Despite an obvious concern that there could be better handicapped horses in the race HANDSOME FALCON does like a small field and I make him my selection with a saver on Snow Bay.


NEWBURY 4.15

Bett Live In Play At totesport.com Fillies´ Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo 0-85) 7f

15/8 Plume, 9/2 Alice Alleyne, 13/2 Sard, 8/1 Catherines Call 10/1 Key Light, 12/1 Dubai Media, 12/1 Miss Zooter
14/1 Flighty Frances, 16/1 Bahati, 16/1 Shibhan
25/1 Excellent Day, 25/1 Universal Circus, 28/1 Lady Pattern 33/1 Crown, 40/1 Perfect Ch´i.

* This is fillies handicap over 7f
* Newbury has had 15 renewals of this race
* All 15 winners had under 9 career starts (others 0-36)
* All 35 that came from Nurseries lost
* Avoid horses from 6f with 1 or 2 runs this year (0-44)
* Avoid horses from 6f if running within a Month
* The only winner to overcome that had Grade 1 form

That takes out quite a few. I would also oppose SARD
from a 3yo maiden as horses coming from a 3yo maiden
with under 5 career starts were 0-25. DUBAI MEDIA is
opposed for the same reason. Both EXCELLENT DAY
and BAHATI failed to do enough last time out. I felt it
was best to oppose FLIGHTY FRANCES unlike any of
the past 15 winners. I am left with 3 horses and they all
come from 2yo Maidens which doesn't worry me. I like
ALICE ALLEYNE much as no winner came from a 2YO
maiden over 7f. I respect MISS ZOOTER shortlisted as
well but PLUME has the strongest profile.

* Horses with 2 career starts
* Coming from a 6f maiden for 2 year olds
* Starting under 16/1
* Three horses had that profile and they finished W W W
* PLUME would be my choice
* She looks a high class prospect
* Connections considered the 1000 Guineas for her
* She scoped badly that week and hadn't come in her coat
* Incredible a month ago she was 12/1 for the Guineas
* Here she lines up in a Handicap off 80
* PLUME looks best



THIRSK 4.25

Robin Hoods Bay Handicap
(CLASS 3)(4yo+ 0-90) 6f

7/2 Discanti, 5/1 Green Park, 11/2 Rowayton, 8/1 Filligree
17/2 Indian Skipper, 17/2 Pearly Wey, 9/1 Red Cape
10/1 Doctor Parkes, Damika, 25/1 Jobe.

This is a trappy little sprint handicap over 6f. I was not
that impressed with DISCANTI's profile and I think it's
best to look elsewhere especially from his draw in stall
one. The draw is complicated. Last years 1st and 2nd in
this race were drawn 1 - 2 but that's an exception to the
rule and thats a poor draw for me. ROWAYTON has a
poor draw in stall 2 and although I have found winners
like her I'd be inclined to ignore a low drawn filly. Also
rejected are FILIGREE as a filly first time out. JOBE has
a poor profile with 1 run this year and an absence. I do
not want DOCTOR PARKES with one race this season
coming up from a 5f race. I do not have huge problems
with any other runners. I would oppose those already
mentioned. I see the winner coming from one of the six
remaining runners. RED CAPE ran yesterday and I had
a look at all exposed horses like him running very quickly.
The only ones that won had 4 or more runs this year and
he has two. Because of that I couldnt match him to any
similar winner + see him as unsafe. GREEN PARK loves
a small field but has never won over as far as this and I'd
see him slightly better at 5f and as he steps up from a 5f
race I would worry about him fighting traffic trying hard
to catch horses without proven stamina. It is too much of
a leap of faith with INDIAN SKIPPER. I could not rule out
PEARLY WEY much as he isnt that well drawn and from
a modest stable. I think DAMIKA has arguably the best
profile and with a good draw he is my choice.


THIRSK 5.00

Scarborough Handicap (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-100) 5f

5/2 Captain Dunne, 11/4 Jaconet, 100/30 Arganil
11/2 Tabaret, 10/1 Fol Hollow, Jargelle, 18/1 Pavershooz.

This is a 5f sprint handicap and there are only 56 of
these races in Class 2 in May. CAPTAIN DUNNE is
respected and was 2nd in this race last year but for
me he looks unimpressive. I dont like his career high
mark and I don't like the fact all his opponents have
more runs this season. ARGANIL comes from Group
3 class and I don't like the record of horses doing that.
FOL HOLLOW is out well beaten just 2 days ago and
now 0-19 in Class 2 races. I dont like TABARET who
may want 6f to be at his best. PAVERSHOOZ wins in
June and July and as he is now on a career high mark
I'd rather wait until later in the year. I think JARGELLE
has a chance despite running below par last time out.
I have found 2 fillies with similar profiles so I would
shortlist JARGELLE. For the selection thought it has
to be JACONET as a mare in form running so well just
2 days ago at York. JACONET could be fitter than the
favourite so I will go with JACONET.


THIRSK 5.30

Filey Handicap (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 5f

6/1 Igoyougo, 13/2 Medici Time, 7/1 Rasaman, 15/2 Absa Lutte 8/1 Stolt, Lucky Art, 9/1 Brierty, 10/1 Peak District, 11/1 Sirenuse 12/1 Indian Trail, Time Medicean, 16/1 Colorus, 18/1 Bravely 20/1 Bertoliver.

This is probably too difficult with an unclear draw bias
as well. Last night we had a "Mention" win in a 5f race.
I gave some angles last night showing older horses had
miserable records in these races. This is a slightly better
grade so the statistics alter slightly. That said in the 179 similar handicaps in May horses aged 9 or more that came from 5f races like INDIAN TRAIL have a 0-126 record so
I would oppose him. RASAMAN won this race last year
but it was in a photo and he is higher in the weights today
and has not run in 41 days. That absence worries me for
a horse with 1 run this season. In 179 races exposed types
like him with 1 run this season and a months break had a
1-38 record. Only 1 horse won like him and that winner
had Group 2 form and it puts me off him. I would oppose
these horses. I would also oppose BRAVELY -COLORUS
BERTOLIVER and TIME MEDICEAN. The 57 day absence
puts me off STOLT. I am taking on MEDICI TIME as all
horses like him winning first time out this year without a
recent run were far less exposed and he has a career high
mark as well.I still have plenty on the shortlist though.

SHORTLIST

IGOYOUGO has a leading chance and statistically horses
with his profile had a 1-1 record so he has to be a positive but there are several at big prices who have strong claims. ABSA LUTTE - LUCKY ART - BRIERTY - SIRENUSE and PEAK DISTRICT all have sound chances. Given the prices
I like PEAK DISTRICT each way at 16/1

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DONCASTER

Horrible card and a dissapointment. I see our bet last week
Tropical Bachelor runs in the 6pm but I dont see him getting 12f on such an expansive track with a very long straight and he may not place. MISTOFFEELESS and HALJAFERIA come out well and I suspect one of those might have enough to win.

In the 7.35pm I didnt like Saharia's profile much. I'd watch the market with AMENABLE as he came out curiously well and could shock in an open race under the radar of sexier types.

The maiden at 8.40 sees HUMIDOR with a shaky profile and
not really achieving as much as I'd like for a maiden. I think a better bet is RAVENFIELD and see him as an each way double type of horse.


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