1 Bet Today

Lingfield 4.00 pm

(8) MASTER LIGHTFOOT 11/2

£50 Win

6/1 Spbet
11/2 -Bet365 - Skybet -Betfred
11/2 Ladbrokes - Bluesq -Hills -StanJ
5/1 Tote - Boyles


There are too many meetings today for comfort so
with a big Saturday looming I've deliberately gone
with a shorter message. It's more "Note Form" than
anything else and I havent pushed any buttons in
terms of detail today. It wont win a Booker Prize as
I have sacrificed quantity today with 5 meetings.


Decided to go with one bet. Another unexposed 4yo
in a sprint. MASTER LIGHTFOOT will be held up at
the back and will come late. Trappy race and he will
as everything does at Lingfield need to find the gaps.
I see a few weak profiles in the race. The horse has
taken time to learn how to race but I think he has a
turn of foot and that will help him in a race like this.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


No Bet yesterday and the horse that came closest to being
a bet was second. I didnt think He was a good enough bet
at the price considering the doubts and hindsight tells me
that was the right decision and that he was really an each
way double horse. Many will still have backed him though.
Overall it was a messy message. I lost a bit of time as I had to visit the accountants and sometimes even a hour or two out can disrupt a message and it did yesterday as it was a late one and did not produce much at all and fell a bit flat.

There are 5 meetings today. That is far too much. With the
bust weekend cards looming I am stripping down some of
the analysis today and just doing a Summarised message.


DONCASTER


I don't like the 1.20pm as it is too tough. Horses like the
favourite OVERTURN that came from novice hurdles are
fine even those with 2 runs but those like him that failed
to win a race before have not won any similar race at this
time of year. Statistically OVERTURN ought to place but
may not go as far as winning. SHADRACK didnt appeal
either. Every Handicap hurdle in January and Febuary at
any distance shows horses from selling handicaps with
under 9 career starts were 2-107 and none were his age
or had his weight. Neither looked strong to me. Given
no horse younger than 6 has won this race before I see
a better option REGIONAL COUNSEL.


In the 1.55pm I looked all 490 similar races and found no
9 year old like SPRING JIM won similar srace when they
had under 3 career starts. Horses aged 9 struggled with
a 3-132 record but look at horses with 1 career run and
you find when they are 8 and over they were 0-81 so I
make SPRING JIM a negative. COUNTY COLOURS is 5
and comes via Bumpers without having won a race so
with identical types just 4-278 he didnt appeal much. I
dont like LA SARRAZINE as a mare with 1 run. I also
oppose CHAMPTHO. I suspect its between 2 horses in
MOGHAAYER and the likely winner SERETH who had
ought to be be winning this on his rating.


I thought BARWELL BRIDGE was more likely to win the
Juvenile Hurdle at 3.05pm but NAFAATH was a smart
flat horse from serious conections and you just can't be
as confident as you would like to be. The obvious feel
to the race is BARWELL BRIDGE is perfect for an each
way double. He will appreciate the track and was a good
horse on the flat as well and with hurdling experience
and a recent run He should be able to just about win.


The 3.40pm is a Handicap Chase. I dont want to bet an
unfit horse and I think ORMELLO will need the run. I'd
also expect KANAD to as well as a horse thats stuffy
and takes a long time to get fit. CALCULAITE has not
shown enough in a brief Chase career. I couldnt find a
6yo winner like DE BOITRON. I dont see PICKAMUS
as a negative but I certainly have not found a winner
with his profile. I would shortlist RUSSIAN FLAG but
I would have liked to have seen a more recent run for
a horse with his profile. I think CAMDEN GEORGE is
a danger at a big price and if money comes for him the
hint should be taken. Other than that BLEAK HOUSE
makes most appeal first time out from a Novice Chase
as horses with his profile had a 4-10 record and one of
those was trained by the same connections.

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CHEPSTOW


The 1.10pm is a Novice Hurdle. There has been 497 of
these races. GOOD OLD THYME comes from handicap
hurdles. There were 11 winners doing that but none of
them had 13 or more starts and he has 17. Throw in his
absence and his drop in trip and no similar winner had
his profile. I couldnt find one like EXTREME IMPACT
who may just be a run short. NORTHERN JEM might be
better waiting for handicaps. THE RUSTLIN RHINO is
hard to fancy well beaten in his only bumper. I wouldnt
see CASTLEROCK as a negative but he also has just a
single run in a Bumper some time ago and I couldnt see
a similar winner. Much as I didnt want to end up with a
horse that was unraced the best record belonged to the
unraced 5yo NOBUNAGA and having checked Venetia
Williams record with unraced 5 year olds in the 497 races
and found a 2-5 record I thought he was as good as any.


The 1.45pm is a Novice Hurdle over 2m 4f. We have had
565 similar races at this time of year. MILANDALE makes
no appeal. QUINTERO shouldnt be good enough. There
is little to reccomend SPIT aged 7 from Bumpers without
a run in 2 years. Horses with that profile were 0-51. I want to oppose PLAY ON WORDS the Paul Nicholls favourite.
No strong statistical reason but he hasnt won a race and
has an absence and generally his type didnt impress. I
give QUIZWORK a chance but his 3rd last time at 150-1
leaves a dilemma about whether it was a fluke or not. I do
like the record of 6 year olds from maiden hurdles when
they have 3 career starts and dont step up in trip. Given
that I think two horses have the best profile and should
be seen as strong. PENSION PLAN has a good profile
as does HORSFORD who needed the run last time out
and I think the best bet here is HORSFORD.


I thought the 2.55pm was probably too difficult and I've
struggled to match any of these with horses that won a
similar race. KING OF CASTILE probably came out as a
stronger runner than most so I will go with him but it's a
wide open race.


In the 4.05pm Handicap Hurdle I wasnt impressed with
CADOUDALAS's preparation from a Chase and without
any Graded form I couldnt find a similar winner. I did not
want SAWPIT SOLITAIRE as a seasonal debutant mare.
QUINTE DU CHATELET has to overcome a very recent
heavy defeat. So to does QUEST. I feel ONLY FOR SUE
is likely to need the run. MERRY MUSIC looks difficult
to commit to. I would give BELLA HAZE a chance and
PINEROCK has a chance as well. BELLA HAZE for me.

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N E W B U R Y


The opening Novice Hurdle is hard to judge with the
unraced Paul Nicholls horse but given the choice and
with a strong profile MASTER OF THE HALL looked
the most likely winner and I thought he would win.

In the 2.05pm TATANIANO is ridiculously short in a
Novice Chase at 1/5 and whilst he ought to win I was
going to bet SUNNYHILLBOY last time before he did
not run and He will test him. I would expect him to go
very well and suggest a place bet on SUNNYHILLBOY.


In the 3.15pm Maiden hurdle ADAMS ISLAND makes
no appeal from a Bumper with 1 run (0-39) and None of
all similar races went to a horses aged 5 coming from a
Bumper like CRANNAGHMORE BOY. I find it hard to
judge AITEEN THIRTYTHREE but he is inexperienced
and faces a long absence and I wasnt convinced about
him given he's a short price. SANDOFTHECOLOSSEUM
and BACK EXIT have place chances and could run well
and I also think AIM FOR THE STARS could run better
than his market position and could be interesting.

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L I N G F I E L D

I would have selected BEYOND in the first race but with
an unraced second favourite its clearly a risky option


I thought the 1.40pm was nasty and felt the best horses
at the weights were Mister Green and Evident Price. If I
tried to split them it would be a guess.


In the 2.50 I just prefered Avow to Wanchai Whisper.


I like the 4pm. In all similar races fillies that had been off over a month struggled and those without form in Class
2 races or better were 0-70 so ANNE OF KIEV wouldnt
appeal. WOTASHIRTFULL may need the run. I couldnt have a mare like SIMPLE RHYTHM from 7f. I dont see INCOMPARABLE winning exposed with such a break. GARSTANG might just need another run. I think that MASTER LIGHTFOOT comes out well and should be able to beat EVEN BOLDER again. BILLY RED comes out as statistically very strong winning a 6f handicap last time. I wanted to oppose him from a Career High mark but that may be a mistake as horses like him had
a 42% strike rate. I would shortlist two. BILLY RED is
strong but I think MASTER LIGHTFOOT is the bet.


In the 4.30pm NOVILLERO has been unlucky recently
and running well and I think he can win this. There is
no similar winner to Sweet Avon or Yawary. I couldn't
find one with Bella Charlie with 4 runs. Its a shame he
is 1lbs out of the weights but I fancy NOVILLERO.

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