1 Account Bet

Pontefract 5.50

SGT SCHULTZ £40 Win 4/1

ESEEJ 9/2 £10 Saver

£50 Staked on the day


SGT SCHULTZ 9/2 Corals
SGT SCHULTZ 4/1 Everywhere except Ladbrokes 7/2
ESEEJ 9/2 Everywhere except Corals -PPower 4/1


Little bit dissapointed with Yarmouth and Exeter today.
Once all the dust has settled I think we've 3 interesting
races we can have some bets in today at Pontefract. I
had two options for account bets. I was looking closely
at Guest Connections and Carmenero in the first but in
the last half hour his price has gone from 6/1 to 9/2 and
that has to be a tipping line. It's annoying but the price
has now been hijacked and I wont stake him now. I do
think with far less to beat I've better value in the 5.50pm



PONTEFRACT 2.20

Guest Connections 9/2
Carmenero 20/1

PONTEFRACT 3.20

Royal Power 18/1

PONTEFRACT 5.20

Sgt Schultz win bet 4/1
Eseej saver bet 9/2


Pontefract 2.20

GUEST CONNECTIONS was beaten 8 lengths in this
race last year but several factors are different for him
this year and I think he could win. Initially I was not
impressed with him but every runner has flaws in the
race and I have warmed more to his chance. I also see
CARMENERO as a big price at 20/1 and more and will
also bet him in the race. Either of them could win. I am
betting GUEST CONNECTIONS and CARMENERO.

Pontefract 3.20

There could be a good draw bias in this race. I have 3
shortlisted. Two are lighter raced 4 year olds who have
to be respected. Both Fastnet Storm and Jesse James
are capable of running well but I am not sure how far
I can trust either. With ROYAL POWER 20/1 there is
a horse with a complicated profile but he is well drawn
and very well handicapped. If I am right about some of
the negatives and the draw can help me as well there is
every chance ROYAL POWER could pop up at 20/1

Pontefract 5.50

I have a lot of time for ESEEJ who could be the fittest
horse and looks a saver to me at 4/1. There is a horse
though thats thrown in at the weights that I think will
outclass these. A winless turf record can be explained
and I see SGT SCHULTZ winning running in his lowest
class of race in years from his lowest handicap mark


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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


Yesterday started the week's messages. I think we came
out of it unscathed and had a reasonable day. The one
suggestion was an each way double which resulted in a
bet that just about got the money back. Saucy Buck ran
a dissapointing race but still placed and Free For All won.
That was enough to make sure we couldnt lose on the day.



EXETER & YARMOUTH


I think I have to stay with the Pontefract card today and
try and get winners there. I did not like anything much on
the other cards. Yarmouth is dominated by 3yo handicaps
and Exeter throws up very little and forces you to guess.


In the 2.40 at Exeter I'd choose Express Leader just ahead
of Penylan Star but have him in an each way double. The
3m 6f Handicap Chase at 3.10 did not tempt me. Only 9 of
these races at this time of year. Younger horses have won
all 9 races so far. No winners were 10 or more but its a tiny sample size and 6 year olds are best but dont have a runner this year. The early trends in these races say horses aged under 10 years old are best as are horses that have not run last time out over further than 3m 3f. Most winners came up in trip from a shorter distance. In the 4.10 the choice looks between King Ar Aghaidh a horse who has never jumped a fence before and Procase De Thaix with experienced but dissapointing. With the next two in the betting looking a bit underraced this year my best guess is Procase De Thaix.


YARMOUTH offers mainly 3yo races and I dont see any
races there offering much. The first race is full of maiden
fillies and is impossible. What few races there are like this suggest you are much better off coming from a 2yo race
rather than a 3yo maiden. I would not want to be with the
3yo maiden runners Nadinska or Weeping Willow but its
not a great statistic and does not help much. In the 3.30
another trappy 3yo handicap I rated Sir Louis a positive
but had to work hard to get him there and given the odds
available I'm not convinced that Knightfire is not a better
option. I think I would rather bet Knightfire at 4 times the price. I thought hard about the 4.30pm as a possible race to preview but ran into too many brick walls. Last week we had Raptor as an account bet and he won well but he
has far better opposition today and did not give me any
feel last week that he would have beaten better horses so
I'd be sceptical about him and Hollow Green is another I
couldn't bet as 4yo fillies are so weak in all similar races. Whether its right to oppose those comes down to how
any number of seasonal debutants run and the ones in
this race are very hard to predict. Tough card.

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PONTEFRACT 2.00

Annual Badge Holders Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 6f

11/2 Tangerine Trees, 7/1 Guest Connections, He´s A Humbug, 7/1 Mey Blossom, 8/1 Angle Of Attack, 8/1 Hits Only Jude 10/1 Ask Dan, Dickie Le Davoir, 12/1 Carmenero, 12/1 Ponting 16/1 Sea Crest, 20/1 Running Flame, 25/1 Alpha Tauri.


SELECTION

GUEST CONNECTIONS 6/1
CARMENERO 25/1


* This is a 6f handicap for 0-70 rated horses
* There has been 8 renewals of this race
* These 8 races had several gaps in the years
* There has been 104 similar races elsewhere
* MEY BLOSSOM is an exposed mare
* Exposed mares had a weak 3-124 record
* Those absent more than a month were 0-61
* Mares racing first time out had a poor record
* Those with 13 + runs were 0-70
* MEY BLOSSOM fails that and is rejected
* Horses from 5f races are at a disadvantage
* They won just 1 renewal of this race
* In 104 similar races they underperform
* Fillies from 5f races were 0-60
* SEA CREST fails that and is rejected
* In this race 4 year olds like SEA CREST were 0-42
* GUEST CONNECTIONS comes from a 5f race
* Exposed horses from 5f races scored badly
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were just 1-96
* None like GUEST CONNECTIONS had run this year
* He has a poor profile
* CARMENERO is exposed aged 7 from 5f
* He wont find that easy to overcome
* All horses winning from 5f races were slightly different
* They all came from better races which is a worry
* What I would say is he shouldnt be 25/1
* At that price he makes a bit of appeal
* ANGLE OF ATTACK comes from a 5f race
* He is one of the better chances from the 5f runners
* He is male and has a recent run
* I couldnt rule him out just on his 5f form
* Horses with his profile doing that were 2-32
* ASK DAN is 4 and a seasonal debutant
* 4 year olds first time with 13 + runs won 5 races
* However all 5 had form in Class 2 races and higher
* ASK DAN lacks the backclass of all of these winners
* That makes me think he is an unlikely winner
* In this race 4 year olds like ASK DAN were 0-42
* RUNNING FLAME is 4 and absent 522 days
* None of the 104 winners defied that break
* RUNNING FLAME looks too unsafe
* In this race 4 year olds like RUNNING FLAME were 0-42
* ALPHA TAURI look wrong from a maiden
* Only 1 of the 104 winners came from maidens
* That winner was different and he looks weak
* In this race 4 year olds like ALPHA TAUR were 0-42
* PONTING is 4 and comes from a 7f race
* Horses aged 4 like that with 13 + runs won 4 races
* They all had more backclass than he does
* Those running within a month like him were 1-58
* PONTING does not come out well
* In this race 4 year olds like PONTING were 0-42
* Seasonal debutants won 37 of the 104 races
* All 37 had 1 think in common
* They had all ran in at least a Class 4 race before
* TANGERINE TREES has yet to do that after 22 runs
* TANGERINE TREES lacks the backclass for me
* HE´S A HUMBUG has been absent 89 days
* Thats a lot for a 6 year old like him
* No horse managed that with 1-2 runs this calender year
* His recent wins all came with short breaks
* My guess is he may need the run
* DICKIE LE DAVOIR is also expsoed and absent 66 days
* That worries me for this horse
* His 9 career wins came with 4-3-10-2-6-9-25-2-13 days break
* I think he is a horse that needs a recent run
* HITS ONLY JUDE has a good chance
* He is clearly well treated at the moment
* He is better on sand but rated 17lbs lower on grass
* He has to show he can win on grass
* He has a 0-20 record on Grass
* He could be handicapped to overcome that poor record
* That said Stall 1 is not the best stall here
* Since 2003 Pontefract has had 51 handicaps
* Thats 51 Handicaps with 10 or more runners
* Horses from Stall 1 had a poor 1-48 record
* That would worry me about him

SELECTION

GUEST CONNECTIONS 6/1
CARMENERO 25/1


I think there are issues with every runner and none come
out without some sort of criticism about their chance in a
tough handicap. Clearly HITS ONLY JUDE has the best
chance on paper but not only has he yet to show he can
win on Grass he also has a potentially problematic draw
especially with a 7lbs claimer on board. I think there has
to be a good chance GUEST CONNECTIONS can win. I
do not like horses that come from 5f in these races but on
the other hand I can point to problems with all of these.

GUEST CONNECTIONS ran in this race last year and was
beaten about 8 lengths and I think he can improve on that
run and go close here as things are slightly different for him this year and I would make the following points about him.

* He lost by 8 lengths in last years race
* This years race is easier and he faces slightly lower grade
* He has a better draw this year
* He was a seasonal debutant last year
* This year he has had a run so should be fitter
* This year he has 6lbs less weight

I would have liked at better run last time where he was
outpaced and missed the break but he should improve
a lot for that run and with the above reasons helping as
well he can get a lot closer this year. I also think I should go with CARMENERO as a small win bet at 25/1 as I see things I like about him and his stable are in brilliant form.

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PONTEFRACT 2.50

High-Rise Median Auction Maiden Stakes
(CLASS 4) (3yo) 1m2f6y

5/4 Zuider Zee, 3/1 Suyoof, 9/2 Moose Moran, 5/1 Gay Mirage
16/1 Forsyth, 25/1 Bollin Julie, 50/1 On The Right Path
100/1 Broctune Papa Gio, 100/1 I Got Music, 100/1 Sharakti.

This is a 3yo Maiden over 10f. There has been 147
of these races at this time of year. With many first
time out and unraced horses you can never be sure.
ZUIDER ZEE was 2nd in a 3yo maiden the other day.
I looked at horses with his profile with 1 recent run
coming second and found the 4 horses that had the
same profile finished W 3 W 3 so he is clearly a big
runner. I dont like GAY MIRAGE's profile much. I
didnt think FORSYTH did enough last time. There
is a legitimate danger in MOOSE MORAN but the
strongest runner has to be ZUIDER ZEE. I can see
arguments for going with MOOSE MORAN each way but I will resist that and suggest ZUIDER ZEE as the bet.

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PONTEFRACT 3.20

Dalby Stand Handicap (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-95) 1m4y

4/1 Kiwi Bay, 7/1 Harrison George, 7/1 Tartan Gunna,
8/1 Jesse James, 10/1 Fastnet Storm, 10/1 Handsome Falcon
10/1 Rainbow Mirage, 12/1 Marvo, 14/1 Daaweitza, Moheebb
14/1 Royal Power, 16/1 Ezdeyaad, 20/1 Medici Pearl
25/1 Wigwam Willie, 33/1 Persian Peril.

This is a Mile Handicap for horses rated 0-95 and there
are 17 renewals of this race. There are 135 similar races
at this time of year. The Draw could play an effect here.
Just after the start there is a very sharp left hand bend.
In the past that has really hurt the higher stalls.

* Since 2007 Pontefract had 35 handicaps at 8f
* Horses drawn 10 or had a miserable 1-141 record

I would worry about the very high drawn horses as that
1-141 record is desperate and the only winner was a 2yo
who got a fast start and won a strange race on a windy
day. The Draw puts me off TARTAN GUNNA. I think
KIWI BAY has it to do from stall 13 and his career high
mark. I am against RAINBOW MIRAGE drawn 12 and a
horse with 1 run this year and an absence. It'd worry me
that HANDSOME FALCON is drawn 11 and has a career
high mark first time. EZDEYAAD has a similar problem
also poorly drawn and I'd oppose DAAWEITZA drawn
10 especially as no exposed horse dropped down from
12f as he attemps to do. I do think you want a low draw.

I want to oppose MOHEEBB as no exposed horse came
down from a 12f race and he is badly treated. It worries
me MEDICI PEARL is an exposed mare having her first
run this season when all her wins came after late May
each year. MARVO has a tough handicap mark and I'd
be nervous about him being fit enough first time out.
HARRISON GEORGE is exposed with 1 run this season.
He also lost by over 10 lengths last time. Horses with a
profile like that were poor and without a recent run I'd
be thinking he may just need another run this year. Its
the same argument with WIGWAM WILLIE another in
this race exposed well beaten on his first run this season.
As an 8 year old and with an absence I couldnt find any
similar winner to him. PERSIAN PERIL is similar to two
winners so perhaps I should shortlist him. That said you
would think he may need further and He may get caught
out at 8f first time out and I dont think he will win

SHORTLIST

FASTNET STORM 10/1
JESSE JAMES 10/1
ROYAL POWER 20/1


* FASTNET STORM is 4 and a seasonal debutant
* Interesting that these horses score well in this race
* The last 4 winners of this were first time out 4 year olds
* 6 of the last 7 winners of this were also first time 4 year olds
* That puts him in with a solid chance
* I would have liked him a bit less exposed though

* JESSE JAMES is a lightly raced 4 year old
* I think thats exactly what you want in this race
* 7 of the last 8 winners of this race were 4 year olds
* He did downgrade yards over the winter
* He was not cheap though and I like his chance

* ROYAL POWER is 7 and has a 45 day absence
* Exposed types aged 7 + absent over a month were 3-156
* That said he does have backclass
* He has been racing in France for 3 runs as well
* He is basically impossible to rate accurately
* He is well drawn though
* He has not been this well treated in his career
* If his trainer has his right he is handicapped to win
* It would be madness to ignore his chance
* Given the prices he is worth a bet

SELECTION - ROYAL POWER

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PONTEFRACT 3.50

Jamaican Flight Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-75) 2m1f216y

7/4 Sinbad The Sailor, 5/2 Bold Adventure, 4/1 Smarties Party 13/2 Luna Landing, 9/1 Go Amwell, 11/1 Dan Buoy, 66/1 I Feel Fine.

This is the first of Pontefracts marathon 7f handicaps this
year and a surprisingly small field limiting any each way
options. I FEEL FINE has to go from a 12f race which has
been too much to overcome over the years. DAN BUOY
also looks a horse to avoid at the moment. There are 17
similar races at this time of year. There are 14 renewals of this race and just 3 similar 17f handicaps elsewhere. The race may have few runners but it is still very difficult to sort out. I wasnt convinced with BOLD ADVENTURE. He has never won on Grass before. I am not convinced he stays despite 3 wins at 2 Miles at Wolverhampton. It strike me that there is a serious stamina doubt being by a Sprinter. He stays very well but this race will take over 21 seconds to run than the 2m Wolverhampton races he has won before take. It also bothers me he has not got a lot of backclass either. I wasn't drawn to him and I think I would look elsewhere. SMARTIES PARTY was behind him last time out. As a mare SMARTIES PARTY seems hard to read as most of her runs are over hurdles. Given she is rated 98 over hurdles I dont see her as well treated on the flat. I don't like her stable or her absence and she lacks backclass. If I am opposing BOLD ADVENTURE it may be an idea to oppose SMARTIES PARTY beaten by him last time out. Neither really grabbed me as horses I'd want to bet. SINBAD THE SAILOR is running very well. I suppose if you want to take a Negative view about him you could argue the 17 similar races show horses having 9st 11lbs or more having a 0-23 record. You could argue his weight will take some carrying without a recent run. LUNA LANDING hasn't been in much form over hurdles but I would be reluctant to rule him out. There are horses like him winning this race with absences and he has just about shown he stays this far. He was a decent 3rd last June over this Course and Distance and it was a better race than this is. GO AMWELL likes this distance here and I would not rule him out either as older horses with an absence have won this race.

SELECTION

Wide open but I am opposing Bold Adventure and
Smarties Party and think a split stake bet is best.

Split Stake Bet

LUNA LANDING 6/1
GO AMWELL 10/1

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PONTEFRACT 4.50

Pontefract-races.co.uk Maiden Fillies´ Stakes
(CLASS 5) (3yo) 6f

11/4 Fairy Shoes, 3/1 Picnic Party, 11/2 Aqua Vitae
6/1 Maid In Heaven, 7/1 Ming Meng, 9/1 Catbells
10/1 A Pocketful Of Rye, 25/1 Carrie´s Magic
33/1 Green Secret, 33/1 Song Of Parkes.

There is very little to go on in this fillies maiden. I just thought it was a race you could only guess in. I am not attracted by PICNIC PARTY. This race has been run 19
times and 17 winners were either debutants or running
first time out. Only 2 winners had actually run as a 3yo
and none of those had 3 or more runs like her and throw
in a less than ideal draw and she doesnt appeal to me. I
would oppose CATBELLS for the same reasons. I think
given the choice I would go with FAIRY SHOES to win.

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PONTEFRACT 5.20

Annual Badge Holders Handicap
(Div II) (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 6f

9/2 Punching, 6/1 Watch Amigo, 7/1 Fulford, 8/1 Cornus,
10/1 Dvinsky, 10/1 Future Gem, Mr Wolf, 12/1 Bahamian Kid
12/1 The History Man, 14/1 Star Addition 16/1 Bid For Gold
20/1 Cherri Fosfate.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-70 rated horses
* There has been 8 renewals of this race
* These 8 races had several gaps in the years
* There has been 104 similar races elsewhere
* Fillies first time out with 13 + runs were poor
* Those aged 3-4-5-6-7 had a 0-81 record
* FUTURE GEM looks unlikely to win first time
* No filly came from a 3yo handicap as she does
* PUNCHING comes from a 5f race
* I dont like that as a profile especially here
* He is exposed and I can't match him to any winners
* THE HISTORY MAN also comes from 5f
* I didnt like him much exposed first time out
* All his wins come from July onwards
* I doubt STAR ADDITION did enough last time
* 1 run this year and a 26 length defeat
* I found 1 winner with a reasonably similar profile
* He wasnt a maiden though like he is
* He also has no backclass and I dont like him
* After all Horses aged 4 are 0-42 in this race
* BID FOR GOLD wins later in the year
* I dont think he did enough on his last run
* MR WOLF is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* No horse as old as him won first time out
* I am happy to ignore him in this race
* WATCH AMIGO is very hard to read
* He is 4 and comes from a maiden last year
* He has only had 2 career starts as well
* I found a 4yo with 2 runs winning one of the 104 races
* That horse came from a handicap though
* In 104 races 4 year old from maidens were 1-28
* Those with under 9 career runs were 0-18
* That said I have found a winner do it at 7f
* Reluctant to make WATCH AMIGO a negative
* He does have a lot to prove though
* You can also argue 4 year olds are 0-42 in this race
* CHERRI FOSFATE looks wrong first time out
* He needs further and should be avoided
* I am not sold on BAHAMIAN KID
* He certainly wouldnt be my first choice
* There are horses that won like FULFORD
* They had just an average record though
* He has a 0-19 record on Grass as well
* I dont see anything inticing about his profile
* DVINSKY is best with a recent run
* He does get that today
* He has not run on turf since last Summer
* He is well treated but like many unsafe
* He was 2nd in this race last year
* This is easier and he has a fair chance
* Much will depend on whether he is slowly regressing

SELECTION

Like the first division this is quite trappy. It is a bit
annoying that CORNUS is no better than 4/1 now
as he could well have been 8/1. I wouldnt say he's
got a profile that has the hair standing up on the
nexk but he has dropped a lot on the handicap in
the last few months and does look well handicapped.

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PONTEFRACT 5.50

Racing Next Monday Apprentice Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-75) 1m4f8y

11/4 King Fingal, 9/2 Tilos Gem, 5/1 Eseej, 6/1 Sgt Schultz, 6/1 Woody Waller, 7/1 Night Cruise, 10/1 Mehendi
16/1 Maybe I Wont.

* This is a 12f Apprentice Handicap
* There has been 8 renewals of this race
* There are 37 similar races elsewhere
* NIGHT CRUISE has been absent too long
* Absent 1109 days I see him as opposable
* There were 8 winners with 1 run this season
* Those aged 4 had a 1-42 record
* Those with under 21 runs had a 1-55 record
* TILOS GEM fails both those angles
* He may just want another run this year
* MAYBE I WONT is exposed and first time out
* This trip will test him on his debut
* I dont think he will win at 12f first time
* MEHENDI was hammered over 2 Miles last time
* As a 4 year old I didnt like that profile
* WOODY WALLER has a complicated profile
* 10 runs but 5 were on the Flat and 5 over hurdles
* I dont see enough in his profile to suggest him
* KING FINGAL has been absent a long time
* He isn't from a stable with a good record with debutants

SELECTION

SGT SCHULTZ Win Bet
ESSEJ - Saver bet


* ESEEJ could be interesting
* His trainer won this in 2005 and 2006
* He may be the fittest horse in the race
* Having a recent run is a big help in this race
* So to is having multiple runs this season
* It was probably a better run than it looked last time
* He went off fast on heavy ground and tired
* The issue with ESEEJ is Turf
* He has a 5-25 record on sand
* He has a 0-9 record on Grass
* He has not had as many chances to win on grass
* There is not a strong argument against him being effective



* SGT SCHULTZ is 7 and first time out
* That doesnt worry me as a profile
* We had a recent 9 year old win this first time out
* With a 0-25 record on Grass he does have questions
* This year his trainer has changed his policy with him
* He has left him unraced on sand this year
* In the past he has said the horse was over the top in April
* That was after running all through the winter
* This year he wants to run him on turf without a run
* That is to exploit a lenient handicap mark
* This horse is 20lbs lower on Grass
* He is thrown in at these weights
* I dont have a problem with him on turf
* He has once lost in a photo before
* That would have stopped any arguments about a 0-25 record
* He has run very well on turf many times
* Take away his runs at a Mile or shorter it improves



SGT SCHULTZ has not had many chances to win on turf
at his favoured distance. When he did run he had a pretty
consistent record and although not winning he was running
when his handicap mark was at it's highest and running in a
better grade of race mainly on Grade 1 tracks. The absence
he has does not worry me. It was only 2 runs ago he ran a
great race after a 4 months absence in a significantly better race than this on the sand. Although this is grass it doesnt worry me and SGT SCHULTZ runs in his lowest grade of race in years from his lowest mark in years and I think he will win.

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