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1 Selection


Not that keen on todays message and not in a format
I like either. It wont win message of the week and it's
a scrappy unimpressive effort clobbered together with
little direction and running away from many races that
look too difficult. Because of that my ambitions today
are limited and I want to put it down as a weak message
and try my best to get an undeserved profit from today.

Maybe its not as bad as that. Goodwood is dissapointing
and although I should get a winner there it will be short.
Beverley is not my favourite place any this card doesnt
offer me enough for a bet but I will be interested to see
if I can do anything in the 2nd - 3rd races on the card.

Epsom is another new meeting. Spent lots of time on a
7f handicap at 3.25 and I have gone with a 16/1 chance
I can not predict. That race interests me and so does the
maiden at 4.35 where I want to see if I'm doing the best
thing in opposing an odds on favourite with an e/w bet.

Salisbuy could see a good day for Andrew Balding with
an interesting horse in the 2.30pm and 4.15pm and if
I was suggesting a race to bet in there it is the 2.30pm.

I love a Good Chepstow card but this is not one and as
most races have massive fields I am restricted to just a
single race there at 5.45pm. Its a fascinating race that
is easier than 17 runners suggest as there is a draw bias
and many that can't win and this race possibly throws
up the best profile with LUCAS PITT a 3 year old. It
is tempting to make her my selection and I will watch
her with interest but I've decided to risk the selection
on a much bigger priced horse which given the racing
today doesn't look that bad an idea as its pretty tough.

Todays Selection

Epsom 3.25

MISHRIF 16/1

Each Way

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


Strong day yesterday. Two selections and one winner but a
decent priced one with FOXTROT ALPHA. Not sure when
She was backed or how hard but there was some 8/1 when I
Sent the message and suggested 7/1 to be safe but she ended
up winning at 4/1 and there was good support for her all day. She ensured a good profit yesterday. The other selection lost and I think I overestimated him a little and I underestimated the opposition a lot. Got the best winner home though and although not a selection Maybeme a horse I backed and had put in the opening paragraph really should have won after a horrible passage. Winners elsewhere in the message so it was a good overall message and finding some rhythm now.


Not a great format today and as I said earlier there is little I like today and I have just looked at the tracks paragraph by paragraph today and not in time order. I have not done a paragraph at Stratford. Best bet there for me is probably CALL AT MIGNIGHT in the 5.35 Novice Hurdle but he's not a brilliant profile just better than his oppositions. The paragraphs today come in this order.

GOODWOOD
B E V E R L E Y
E P S O M
C H E P S T O W
S A L I S B U R Y



GOODWOOD

Dissapointed with Goodwood so leaving it alone today. It is a new meeting so there is no history at all and I thought plenty of the races on this card looked unsortable. Just refering to the opening Maiden I would have to go with WINTER'S NIGHT. I looked at horses like MUSIC NEWS from 5f maidens with 1 career start and when they had a months absence they show a 0-74 record. Horses with two runs like HARD BARGAIN when beaten more than 10 lengths over 7f were 0-42 so I'm nervous about his chance. I think WINTER´S NIGHT looks strongest.

The Nursery (5.25) is impossible but I'd want to avoid the low draws there. LUNAR VICTORY should win the maiden at 5.55.

The 6.30pm upsets me greatly. Starting at the conclusion first I thought MISSIONAIRE was the easiest horse to tip but there is a doubt about the ground. Quickly going through these there is no 3yo like NAVE beaten so far within the last 4 days as he was. I know he had excuses but its a big assumption to assume he could have won last time without stumbling. Statistically I could oppose Fanditha -Mister New York -Pathos for all being underraced this year. Rockfella + Dakiyah have shaky profiles.
I was left with MISSIONAIRE a fair bet if handling the ground

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B E V E R L E Y


I never usually have much to say on this card and no different today either so keeping it short and sweet there. The opening race didn't have any strong profiles good or bad so ignoring it.


The Fillies Maiden for 2 year olds at 2.40pm is not sortable. I respect INFECTIOUS who must go close. Given that it's a race that has normally gone to experienced horses and that horses with exactly 4 career starts that came down from 6f maidens as MISSCOMPLACENT does had a 4-8 record in all similar races I'd argue the safest choice has to be MISSCOMPLACENT E/W.


either MISSCOMPLACENT or an unraced horse. Given that it
is a race that has normally gone to experienced horses and that horses with 4 career starts that came down from 6f maidens as MISSCOMPLACENT does had a 4-8 record in all similar races I would argue the safest choice has to be MISSCOMPLACENT


BEVERLEY 3.15

Mrs Anne Corkell´s Birthday Celebration
Fillies´ Handicap (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-70) 5f

9/4 Arriva La Diva, 3/1 Comptonspirit, 7/2 Midget
7/1 Caranbola, 7/1 Miss Daawe, 10/1 Piste, 33/1 Accamelia
33/1 Princess Charlmane, 66/1 Best Known Secret.

The 3.15pm is a Fillies Handicap over 5f and there's 44 similar races at this time of year. These races show that you need some experience and fitness and horses that dont have enough of this include Accamelia -Princess Charlmane -Best Known Secret. I'm opposing CARANBOLA and MISS DAAWE after heavy defeats and no horse like them overcame that. MIDGET is the only 3yo in the race. She has a reasonable chance but she falla down on a lack of significant backclass and I wasn't impressed with her and would prefer to look elsewhere. PISTE is a 4 year old and drops
from 6f and 4 year olds doing that without Group Class backclass were 0-25 so she looks unsafe. COMPTONSPIRIT looks fine as an exposed horse but I ran her profile and found a solid record if they had a run within 2 weeks and 9st 2lbs or less and she has 18 days absence and 9st 12lbs so that is just over the threshold. The best profile belongs to ARRIVA LA DIVA. I looked at 4 year olds
with 13-20 runs and between 5 and 6 runs this season. Those like ARRIVA LA DIVA that won last time out had a 2-2 record and thats enough to make ARRIVA LA DIVA the selection in this.


The 3.50pm is a 2m Handicap and there are 190 similar races at this time of year. I dont like RARE RUBY believing her to be a bit underraced this year. NO RULES has a long break and there's no horses winning like him with that break. RAWNAQ looks too underraced for a 3yo coming from 12f. I respect KEENES DAY but couldnt match him to a winner. FRENCH HOLLOW has no easy profile to understand as a lightly raced 5 year old. Warning
bells are ringing for me with just 1 run since April and because of that I'd just shade it to BOLLIN GRETA but confidence low here.


No interest in the 7f Nursery at 4.25pm but I did look at all these Nursery races for horses like MICA MIKA who won 7f races on their last start. Those without a run in 2 weeks struggled and none managed to win with more than 4 career starts so she looks weak. The history of this race far more often than not goes to a horse coming from a Maiden who has 3-4 runs and I'd stay with those.
There are 4 options for me. Little Miss Take is fine statistically as is Dark Dune - Countrywide Flame and HI HO RON coming from a race 71 days ago that a past winner also came from.


Not keen on the last 2 races. They are Amateur Riders races with 2 seperate divisions. Not enough of these races for a proper look at what wins the. My angles are Unsafe in these races so dont see them as important. They show horses aged 8 or more not winning any similar race. They suggest horses from sellers/claimers are not
good. You dont want horses from 6f or shorter or 10f or longer as well. I ran angles quickly in both divisions and ended up shortlisting the following horses in each of the last two races on the card.

Beverley 5.00
Royal Composer -Silly Gilly - Lujano
Whipma Whopma Gate -Strike Force

Beverley - 5.30
Just Timmy Marcus -Ivestar

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E P S O M

Today's Epsom card is a new one and not a great one either
and most of the races look too open. I have decided to stay
away from the first two races. I've had a good crack at the
7f Handicap at 3.25pm and thats the only preview at Espom
today. After that preview a few quick words about some of
the later races on the card but only 1 race here is previewed.


EPSOM 3.25

Totepool Flexi Betting Handicap (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-90) 7f

7/2 Golden Shaheen, 9/2 Suffolk Punch, 6/1 Woodcote Place
13/2 Viking Spirit, 8/1 Hot Spark, 10/1 Guilded Warrior
10/1 Hi Shinko, 12/1 Aye Aye Digby, 14/1 Mishrif
16/1 Caprio, 20/1 Cornus.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-90 rated horses
* There are 183 similar races at this time of year
* Taking the Draw first horses drawn 1-2-3 may struggle
* Since 2008 there were 10 handicaps here with 9 + runners
* All 10 winners were drawn in Stall 4 and higher
* GOLDEN SHAHEEN is drawn 1 which is a concern
* He is a 3yo coming from a 6f race
* 3 year olds coming from 3yo handicaps over 6f were 0-24
* 3 year olds from 6f races without Group Class form struggled
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5-6 runs that year had a 1-60 record
* GOLDEN SHAHEEN only has 4 runs and looks weak
* CAPRIO could be poorly drawn in stall 2
* I dont like the fact he comes from a Claimer
* Horses doing that had a 0-38 record in these races
* HI SHINKO is not well drawn in stall 3
* HI SHINKO is an exposed 4yo as were 12 winners
* All 12 winners like him had 6 + runs this season
* HI SHINKO has just 5 races
* 11 of the 12 exposed 4yo winners ran within a month
* HI SHINKO does not do that
* He also comes down 1.5f something none of them did
* He loves the track/ground which will help him
* HI SHINKO is not like any of the 183 winners though
* SUFFOLK PUNCH is a 3yo male from a 7f handicap
* There were 9 winners like that but none were like him
* None had 1-2 runs that season as he has
* Those like him without a run in 2 weeks were 2-55
* Both those winners had at least 6 runs that season
* SUFFOLK PUNCH has a shaky profile
* He needs a more recent run or more runs this year
* HOT SPARK is a 3yo male
* He won a 7f handicap for 3 year olds last time
* There were 3 winners that did that in 183 races
* They all had under 9 runs and HOT SPARK has 12
* The issue with him is whether he is too exposed to win again
* He is well drawn though and respected
* Exposed horses coming from 6f races won 16 races
* However those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year were 0-25
* AYE AYE DIGBY fails that with just 3 runs this year
* AYE AYE DIGBY looks like he needs more runs
* Exposed horses coming from 6f races won 16 races
* Those aged 7 or more had a 1-62 record
* Those beaten 10 + lengths last time were 0-35
* CORNUS is 8 and lost by 15 lengths last time
* CORNUS looks an unlikely winner
* VIKING SPIRIT is 8 and comes from a 6f race
* We know horses doing that like him are 1-62
* With no runs at Epsom and no wins at 7f he is weak
* GUILDED WARRIOR is 7 years old and comes from 8f
* Horses aged 7 or more coming from an 8f race were 3-85
* Those with under 8 runs this season were 0-45
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 0-38
* Those beaten 4 + lengths last time were 0-53
* GUILDED WARRIOR fails all those angles
* None had his weight either

SHORTLIST

* WOODCOTE PLACE looks shortlistable
* I have found winners like him in these races
* I would have prefered a more recent run
* Overall he has a strong enough profile
* MISHRIF has a hard profile to read
* I cant see any reason why he shouldnt win

SELECTION - MISHRIF 14/1 Each Way



I didnt like the 4pm Handicap. I scanned the race and I'd
have opposed 4 horses in LAUDATORY - SANCTUARY
KALEO and MAJURO. They are my negatives bit I would
not have selected RESURGE or WIGGY SMITH either. It
is a hard one to call but the last time out 3yo winners look fine so FLYING DESTINATION and FAME IS THE SPUR
could well be the ones but I didnt feel I had sorted this.


The Fillies Maiden at 4.35 is a race demanding guesswork
but 34 similar races show horses that come from maidens
over 7f struggled and those with 2 or more career runs had
a 0-22 record so FORK LIGHTNING does not have a good
profile much as she still may win. I think there are better
profiles in the race. SHAMARDAL PHANTOM has solid
claims. SASHEEN and CHILD OF OUR TIME are also big
profiles and I think Fork Lightning is underpriced at odds
on so I'll go with SHAMARDAL PHANTOM each way.

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C H E P S T O W

CHEPSTOW 5.45

6/1 Belle Park, 13/2 Lucas Pitt, 7/1 Fiancee, 8/1 Aggbag
8/1 Dancing Welcome, 8/1 Fly By Nelly, 17/2 Bold Diva
9/1 Pretty Orchid, 11/1 Master Mahogany, 16/1 Captain Oats
16/1 Hilbre Court, 16/1 Tallawalla, 20/1 Barataria, 25/1 Lily Wood 25/1 On The Feather, 33/1 Key To Love, 40/1 Ettrick Mill.

This is a low grade mile handicap. Just making some observations here. What you ideally want is a fit horse in form but starting the analysis with a Draw Statistic that looks quite interesting

* Chepstow has had 26 handicaps at 8f with 9 + runners since 2008
* Horses drawn 11 or more have a poor 1-79 record in these races
* Its very similar to the 7f distance here as well

This tells me to avoid High drawn horses. Many of these are hard to fancy anyway but none of them had good profile so I'd oppose all the high drawn horses. I'd avoid horses with 1 run this season. I thought PRETTY ORCHID had a chance. BELLE PARK looks strong on one side but I cant make my mind up about a filly from a 3yo Handicap. The horse that stood out to me was another 3yo in LUCAS PITT. I ran his profile and liked it a lot. I watched his
last race on tape and thought he did remarkably well to finish 4th staying on from last place and I think if he stays he could win this.

* LUCAS PITT has a serious chance
* Horse aged 3
* Coming from a 7f race
* Between 5 and 6 career runs
* At least 3 runs this season
* Carrying 9st or less
* No form beyond a Class 4 race before
* There were 5 horses that had that profile
* 3 of the 5 horses won
* LUCAS PITT has that profile

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S A L I S B U R Y

Tough card at Salisbury. If you look at Auction Maidens just like the 2.30pm race they show unraced horses struggling if having high weights so CLASSIC VOICE looks vulnerable to me and I'd also oppose FASTADA on his profile. Best profile is probably SAGRAMOR but a wide open race that's impossible to get a grip on with so many lighter raced horses. One of the best trainer records with these horses is Andrew Balding and he has won this race twice before with twice raced horses so I would strongly consider CATALYZE as well. Given prices I would make SAGRAMOR a saver bet at 9/4 and have the larger stake on CATALYZE at 4/1 or better.


BARQ looks hard to oppose in the 3.05pm.

I couldnt find a good profile in the 3.40pm.

The Sovereign Stakes at 4.15pm is statistically hard as horses are coming from all over the world. What I would say is horses like SEA LORD coming from Handicaps have struggled in the 10 renewals of this. It's interesting all 20 like him were beaten and I would rather be with a more proven horse. SECRECY is coming from a Handicap but that was a handicap abroad so Its unsafe to conclude he fails that but with few runs recently He wouldnt be my first choice. In recent years exposed horses in this race did well and if you take exposed horses with 3-4 runs
this year coming from an 8f race you find a 3-3 record with these horses winning in 2003 -2008 -2009 and that is why I'd go with either PRESSING or DREAM EATER in this and I'd save on PRESSING and bet DREAM EATER given the choice.

The Fillies Handicap over 6f at 4.50pm does not throw up a
top notch profile just doubtfull ones. The horses that had the safest profiles were MISS FIREFLY and DUALAGI and they
were the only horses I could have shortlisted in this race.

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