No Account Bet


First message back today after a short break. The Plan now is to go on from Today through the weekend including a Sunday message and the Monday Bank Holiday too before a rest day on the Tuesday next week. So this is the first of 7 consequetive days messages. The Racing on the Flat today is pretty horrible. Just 2 meetings. Heavy ground at Both. No history to any of the cards. Multiple non runners changing the frames of races.


Looks a good day to do some Housekeeping. There is a look at results so far this season. I am making some changes as well for the next few months. There is a new paragraph coming in the messages. I am also going to Abolish the Account bets and the Selections and replace them with simple daily reccomendations. That will take place at the end of this week and reasons for that are explained later in this message. The changes are planned to improve the service. I'm doing this on the back of good results so they are progressive steps that should help us win more.


The Racing is Nasty and dangerous today. It's bad enough on a normal Tuesday but the Rain makes it worse. I dont like any of the Yarmouth card and have nothing there and little more from Leicester either. The best card has to be SEDGEFIELD as there are a few horses with solid profiles there and the ground will be much better there as well so I'd direct you there for any bets on the day. There is nothing I want to highlight. Going with a No Bet day today not so much as its the first day back but more so the racing offers me nothing with unpleasnt changing conditions.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G




S E D G E F I E L D


I suppose the ground at Sedgefield will be the hardest to call as it may or may not be affected from the rain. It's not too bad a card. There are strong profiles here and just a matter of sorting out which if any are worth bets.


In the 2.15pm SAHRATI has the best profile by some way
but it's quite an open Novice Hurdle with strength in depth. MR JAY DEE won a Bumper last time. He isnt a negative as horses doing that had a 4-13 record but none were aged 5 like him. His profile is more Unproven and I'd say the same for Novice Chase winner CALL ME MULLIGAN. There is a few runners in this race that could test SAHRATI. What I prefer in these races is strong profiles taking on weak ones but there are not many weak profiles here. The best profile is SAHRATI unsurprisingly as he won last time. Horses aged 6 winning Novice Hurdles last time had a 25-51 record in all similar races a strike rated of 49%. Those like SAHRATI as horses with more than 1 win did exceptionally well and he comfortably has the best profile. It's a warm race and there has to be an argument he is best in an each way double.



The 2.45pm is a Novice Handicap Chase. There are only 7
runners so not a great frame. I dodnt like the outsider and I am not that keen on SKIDDAW JONES a 10 year old that
comes from a Novice Chase. I couldn't find a similar horse
win. ALFLORAMOOR has a weak profile as well coming in
from a Claiming race and over 3 miles. SAN DENG has got
to go well but the best profile has to be COURELLA. There
were 16 horses in all similar races that won Novice Handicap Chases in the past fortnight and 9 of the 15 won. There are things you'd worry about. As an example his connections do state he doesnt find much in a finish and he wont want much rain either so that has to be considered. COURELLA is the strongest statistical runner by some way. If he gets ground that isn't too soft he can win again. If its soft he could get bogged down. Looks one to bet at 11/4 and lay him back at Evens and lock in a small profit. Unless soft I think he wins.



The next strong profile at Sedgefield comes at 3.15pm in the Novice Hurdle in RIO GAEL. Again he runs in a race where I have other profiles I like as well. BANDANAMAN is hard to read but I have found a 4yo like him coming from sellers so I respect him. SADLER'S STAR has a better profile than I had thought. Although quite exposed with 19 runs I have found a few winners like him and it surprised me. He looks a danger to everything but RIO GAEL comes out best. Male horses aged 4 winning Novice Hurdles last time were between 4-6 runs had a W W W record from 3 horses that tried. The biggest danger is whether it turns soft and whether than taxes his stamina over this trip. Statistically RIO GAEL has the best chance.



The 3.45pm is very open by its nature as there is often much hidden ability in these Novice Handicap Chases. I dont have a horse with a great profile but I didnt want SIR BUMBLE and I thought he was a strange favourite. I looked at all these races for horses winning Novice Handicaps last time. None of them were exposed like him or as old as him. He has ran 25 times in his career yet never raced more than 90 before today and that is a poor standard and these will have to be bad for him to win again. They could easily be bad but I'd oppose SIR BUMBLE.
I have to guess with so many coming from hurdles and Mares
without Chase form as well. There is not any horse with a big profile so I will have to guess on something like PUGNACITY.


I think it is hard to oppose LOUIS LUDWIG in the 4.15pm. I
liked him a few days ago but he was a non runner. He still has a strong profile. His chance is helped by weakness in his rivals. I didnt like DAASIJ much. Frustratingly one similar winner like him stops me making him a negative but he didn't impress me. I didnt want NOBEL as an exposed 9yo from a 2 Mile race so I dont think he has much to beat. LOUIS LUDWIG looks best.

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L E I C E S T E R


It's heavy ground at Leicester and a very hard card because of it with many horses unproven on ground as bad as this. There looks an impossible maiden at 5.20pm. I couldnt find a strong profile in either of the 5.50pm races. At least not one that is proven on the ground. There are many in the 6.20pm that I think came out badly like Ella -Burnett -Senate and others. I felt the best overall profile belonged to TOPOLSKI

The 6.50pm is a 6f Claimer and there are 49 similar races at this time of year. Fillies have a poor record in these races. It is off putting 3yo fillies like Universal Circus and Basle have a miserable 1-60 record. Older fillies like Cape Melody stuggle as well. None were unexposed like her and those from 6f races or shorter were only 1-84. Daddy´s Gift also came out weakly as a filly. Cape Kimberley looks underraced this year. There is too much risk in Aeroplane down 2f and having 1 run since
last January over a trip short of his best. C´MON YOU IRONS has a reasonable profile but I'd have liked more runs this year if I'm honest. I'd shortlist him and DICKIE LE DAVOIR who I couldnt rule out. Its asking a lot for him to win but take out the outsiders and if you can get the fillies beaten there are no great profiles against him so I would give him a decent chance. I thought the last 2 races there were too difficult.

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SERVICE CHANGES


Spent a bit of time not least in the past 2 days looking at how the season has been shaping up. Not just in terms of results and the profit and loss account. Also the messages in general and a look at both their accuracy and uselfullness and their content.


Looking at Account Bets and Selections I have caluclated them as follows just for simplicity. My records show Selections being calculated as £1 bets and Account bets as £2 bets. Obviously it's a numerical figure which means nothing as I could use points. I have gone with £1 and £2 level stakes reflecting their strengths.


* April to August Profit Figures

* Based on £1 on all selections

* Based on £2 on all Account Bets


April Profit/Loss + £5.38
May Profit/Loss + £7.82
June Profit/Loss - £16.35
July Profit/Loss + £14.48
August Profit/Loss + £14.69

Total Proit so far this season based on £2
Account Bets and £1 Selections = + £26.02

This shows that if you had £1 on every selection I have given in the flat season and had £2 on every Account Bet you would have a level stakes profit of £26.02. Obviously those numbers would be better if you always got the best available prices. That is not a bad return. If you Paid for the service during these five months and paid the highest rate with no reductions or reduced subscriptions on longer time deals. If you pay the highest rate
possible then that is basically saying you only need to have £14 on each bet given each day in the opening paragraph to get all subscrition fees back. If Stakes for each bet had been just £30 there is a £416 profit after the membership fees had been won any paid for. I'm reasonably happy with it. Having a 26pts level stakes profit is generally excellent and obviously the higher the
stakes the more you would win. Results show 4 winning months in 5 and only one poor month that came in June. Generally it's a good effort and the seasons plenty of time left as well. I have never judged the service purely on results though. It's more than just bets. There is the bottom part from a message. My criticism of the season here has been too much ambiguity. Not everything
is as clear as it should have been. I need to tighten up and make some changes and ensure that the service improves here.


* ACCOUNT BETS and SELECTIONS are to be Abolished

* In recplacement will be Daily Reccomendations

* These will be my strongest bets


Regardless of the label a bet has be that selection of account bet there is a myth in places about these bets. Because Account bets are rare they're seen as somehow stronger or better than the daily selections. That/s not been borne out by results in the last 5 years. The Selections have just as good a record long term and have done every year. When the daily message is sent the main bet (s) that day are the best I have available to give you. The label attached is irrelevant. These are the best that have so far made a 26pts level stake profit this season. This will end once and for all the 1 major
problem I have had in delivery of bets. It kills this issue for good and is the last and the Final change to the Top of the Message and these Daily Reccomendations will be judged at Level Stakes and will represent the bets the service has daily.


* ADDITIONAL PARAGRAPH

There will be an extra paragraph inserted into each daily message. The message as ever will start with the Top Paragraph and the Bets that day which will be now called Daily Reccomendations. The new paragraph is going to show my personal bets that day. What other bets I plan to have. Other things like where the message is strong
and where there is weakness. Just a gut feeling each day about the message. There will be bits in there about other tipsters at times and any issues that help the message in its accuracy. Then it's the standard review of the previous days racing and then the Bottom of the message.

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