Daily Recommendation

No Bet Today


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RECENT FORM

Things have been slow lately and I have been a bit cold so
I thought I'd take a look at how the bets have done lately.
I looked at both the Daily Reccomendations the strongest
bets and the Mentions that I liked best from each message
and have gone back since November 1st five weeks ago.

DAILY RECOMMENDATIONS

4 Bets
0 Winners
3 Losers
1 Placed e/w

The story here for me is that although a small loss the big
problem has come with the lack of bets. We have only had
4 strong bets in 5 weeks. Thats like the bad old days when I kept you too short of bets. There is some mitigation. I did have some housing problems which caused disruption. The Racing starts earlier now as well which takes some adjusting and rushed me a bit once or twice and the weather has taken a lot of fixtures. Three reasonable reasons why there have been a lack of bets. I recognise its too few but its just outside factors that have got in the way. There is a Loss there. It's annoying the last 2 bets also ran dreadfully. The actual Loss though is not worth worrying about. The last bet in October won at 7/1. The Three before that went L P Won 7/2 and it was a very profitable October. The 4 bets since November have hardly done any damage at all to profits. The damage has been done by the lack of action and momentum.


MENTIONS

On days when there is No Daily Reccomended bets I usually
give a bet in the "Message Thoughts" paragraph which is my
best bet from the message and where I feel I have the strongest chance. I had a look at how these had gone since November 1st.

29 Bets
7 Winners
20 Losers
2 Placed
Profit + 2/3 pts

These 29 bets included Sundays only mention HELM who lost
and sadly died in a Fall as well. If you had backed all 29 horses in this paragraph you'd have won a small ammount. Depending on prices I'd estimate the average person would be 2-3pts ahead and whilst that wouldnt be enough to call it a winning month it did surprise me that we were winning. I have been cold and not in the best or form but the results in the last 5 weeks suggest it feels a lot worse than it actually is. The Mentions are showing
a small profit which isnt bad at all considering the disruptions.


Overall looking at Both the Stronger bets and the Mentions in the last 5 weeks have done much better than you might think. It has still been a poor time. Not an enjoyable experience and made worse with the Cold weather but its not been a disaster at all looking at the results which are all checkable on the message board with every past message on there. In a long year we have to have poor times and slow periods and this has clearly been a
rough time and I need to improve quickly. Whats positive with this sort of run is we have not done much financial damage or at least not as much as it might have felt during a long 5 weeks.

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS


Started off with some Housekeeping looking back at the
recent few weeks. The cynics among you may recognise
the bit of spin but its all factual and just puts the last few weeks into context. The weather is probably depressing
you as much as it is me and another cold spell has killed
the chances of some National Hunt for a few days.

Dismal Tueasday again. Dissapointing as it might be the
SOUTHWELL card is ignored today. There are 8 races
on the card but its pointless doing anything there unless
its decent and I didnt like the card at all. It was freezing overnight and the track has been churned up around the clock. It will ride slow. There are small fields and it is a messy card where nothing can be taken on face value. I could easily knock out 8 pretty little previews but there would be nothing incisive in there today so leaving it out.

I have looked at the 6 Lingfield races today. Tough card
as you would expect and like many Tuesdays options are
severely restricted. There was no chance of a full bet so
another quiet non eventful day. I have to describe todays
analysis as pretty toothless and low grade like many recent days have been but we have hardly had a sniff recently and I dont see a point in wasting bullets for the sake of it. If I had to follow one from the message the 3.20pm would be the race I'd focus on but Its not a day I want a bet and it's no more than a flat mundane early week message today.

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TODAY'S RACING


LINGFIELD 12.50

7/2 Orchard Supreme, 9/2 Buona Sarah, 5/1 Too Late Jones
11/2 Dream Of Fortune, 8/1 Free Tussy, 8/1 Officer In Command 10/1 Roilos, 12/1 Merrymadcap, 12/1 Starburst, 14/1 Edgeworth.

This is a 10f Claimer and we only have 18 similar races at this time of year so not much to go on. Fillies are 1-53 in these 18 races which puts me off BUONA SARAH and STARBURST as the only females. TOO LATE JONES is too inexperienced for any claimer. I think ROILOS is just too unsafe. EDGEWORTH doesnt appeal up in trip. These would be my negatives. One of the problems is no horse has a strong profile which will increase the chances of one of the negatives winning. You also have 3 horses with absences and no saying how fit they will be after a
cold snap as well. Not easy to come up with a safe bet. Give me a free bet and I'd be laying Too Late Jones place only. With a strong last time out winner record DREAM OF FORTUNE is probably the best profile in the race. MERRYMADCAP has a better chance than it looks as well. I would suggest a place bet on MERRYMADCAP and a win bet on DREAM OF FORTUNE.



LINGFIELD 1.20

15/8 Hawaafez, 2/1 Al Khatma, 4/1 Movingly, 11/2 Baisse
16/1 Secoya, 25/1 Twin Soul, 40/1 Dune Island, 40/1 Jody Bear 50/1 Igitur.

Maiden Fillies race for 2 year olds. Only 6 races at this time of year. Impossible to be confident with unraced horses prominent in the market. I would rather stay with the experienced horses. Its very offputting AL KHATMA was sold cheaply recently and I see HAWAAFEZ as the most likely winner



LINGFIELD 1.50

9/4 Zeavola, 5/2 Liberty Green, 3/1 Forty Proof
4/1 Magic Stella, 16/1 Welsh Inlet.

This is a very trappy 6f Nursery and a tiny field. Could be one of those races that are won tactically. I didnt like ZEAVOLA as horses from 5f maidens were weak (1-41) and none of them were fillies like her. LIBERTY GREEN has the same problem as well. MAGIC STELLA has an unothodox profile but has a chance. Overall the best profile was probably FORTY PROOF.



LINGFIELD 2.20

3/1 The Fifth Member, 5/1 Zebrano 6/1 Baylini, 7/1 Layline
7/1 Sarah Park, 8/1 Suffolk Punch 10/1 Mafeking, 16/1 Big Bay.

This is a Mile Handicap for horses rated 0-92 and there are 52 similar races at this time of year. I wasnt convinced by the fact THE FIFTH MEMBER has the fewest runs this year as well as the second longest absence. Exposed horses like him with less than 6 runs that year won only 1 of the 52 races. That horse had more runs this year and more backclass and a more recent run and as THE FIFTH MEMBER has a career high mark I am worried that we have fitter opponents. BIG BAY did not come out well enough. MAFEKING is down in trip. The only winners dropping in trip were unexposed horses aged 3-4-5. None were
aged 6 or more (0-14) or had more than 21 career runs (0-33)and he may be the wrong type and I was not keen on his draw anyway. BAYLINI has the same problem exposed and down in trip and as the same age and also a mare he wasnt like any past winner. I dont feel SUFFOLK PUNCH ran well enough on his last run especially for a 3 year old. Horses aged 3 that lost by 10 or more lengths last time out as he did were 0-47 and that also takes out LAYLINE who was well beaten last time and as a 3 year old coming up in distance without a recent run there are no similar winners. ZEBRANO is almost right statistically. All similar winners did have more backclass but I could almost
match him but it's a worry his trainer has said the weather has held him up and he has not had a chance to excercise horses. I dont want to risk him because of that and because I cant match him as well as I'd like. I will risk SARAHS ART as she clearly has the class to win a race like this and I dont see any obvious flaws in her chance and at 9/1 or more shes a fair risk. I can see SUFFOLK PUNCH running into a Place as well. Perhaps a win bet on SARAHS ART and place bet SUFFOLK PUNCH.


LINGFIELD 2.50

3/1 Treacle Tart, 4/1 Kiss A Prince, 11/2 Humor Me Rene
6/1 Battleoftrafalgar, 6/1 Rosco Flyer, 7/1 Traphalgar
10/1 Benhego, 12/1 Bedouin Bay, 25/1 Al Amaan.

This is a 12f Handicap for horses rated 0-82. There are 77
similar races at this time of year. All 39 horses who hadn't run in the last 7 months lost in these races so I wouldnt be keen on BENHEGO absent 562 days. AL AMAAN doesn't appeal from the same stable. BEDOUIN BAY looks wrong with no 3 year olds coming down in trip or beaten as far as he was last time. BATTLEOFTRAFALGAR looks unsafe winning 57 days ago and a 3 year old. There are several of
these with unorthodox profiles and not profiles that you'd
associate with winners of similar races. TRAPHALGAR is
coming from a seller and very lightly raced this season and
I couldnt match him to a winner. HUMOR ME RENE is a
3yo filly from a claimer and I cant find any 3yo filly doing that. Equally I can not find a mare like TREACLE TART winning a similar race from a maiden. It's hard to find any winners like this pair but at least they did win last time out and that counts for something at least. ROSCO FLYER has a chance but most 4 year olds up in trip were experienced like KISS A PRINCE and although I'd have prefered a more recent run for him he does at least have an orthodox profile something few others have in this race.

LINGFIELD 3.20

4/1 Tevez, 9/2 Hinton Admiral, 5/1 Nubar Boy
6/1 Pipers Piping, 10/1 Spinning Bailiwick, 10/1 Yankee Storm 12/1 Sarah´s Art 14/1 Starwatch, 16/1 Tous Les Deux
20/1 Durham Town.

This is a 7f Handicap for 0-74 rated horses. There are 192
similar races at this time of year. I would be against the long absent horses TOUS LES DEUX and DURHAM TOWN. I'm
against STARWATCH coming from a 5f race. All horses to
come up in distance aged 7 or more had form in at least class 2 grade before something SARAH´S ART fails. NUBAR BOY is 3 and up in trip but would've looked far better with a recent run. SPINNING BAILIWICK has a shaky profile as a mare with an absence. LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND didnt run well enough last time. I would see one of 4 horses winning this.

SHORTLIST

I have found 1 winner like YANKEE STORM and would see
him as an option. PIPERS PIPING has a strong profile and
my only problem with his is being Drawn 1 as horses from
this stall have strugged recently at this distance and almost all recent winners in similar races were drawn high. TEVEZ has to be shortlisted after running yesterday even if this trip is shorter than ideal. I found 1 horse his aged coming down from 8f in the last few days and that horse won. I would see him as a big runner. HINTON ADMIRAL has a decent profile with no obvious flaws. I would see TEVEZ potentially at risk from being outpaced and possibly bouncing as well so feel he is unsafe. I think YANKEE STORM is a decent saver with a stronger bet on HINTON ADMIRAL.

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