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Wolverhampton 3.40

SON OF MONSIEUR 14/1

Each Way Bet

14/1 Hills -SJ -PP -Bet365 -Tote -Vc-Betfred-Skybet

After the fluff is taken out of the message it really
concentrates on the last 4 races at Wolverhampton.
I can see bets in all 4 races but knowing which bets
to suggest as my best is not that straight forward.
With little at Ffos Las and not being comfortable at
Wolves as I should be really its one of those days
where some tight and close decisions can lead to a
bit of indecision. I flirted with multiple bets or some
novely bets as well in these 4 races but the final
choice is an each way bet on my 14/1 choice.


Probably my weakest options is Moscow Oznick in
the 3.05pm. Generally 7/1. I just feel any horse thats
won a Lingfield maiden 9 days ago should be able
to win a 0-60 handicap off topweight. Dont know a
lot about him but a reasonable risk to a small stake.

Half an hour later (3.40) I could have a really good
one in SON OF MONSIEUR at 14/1. Equally I could
have a dud as well and I am a bit worried that if I go
with a strong bet and move the market connections
could react and decide another day is best. That said
I feel I've made a good case that he has a big chance.

I like the 4.10pm a lot up to a point as I feel I've some
good negatives but any of 2 or 3 could win and there
is a big risk of picking the wrong horse in this race so
my choice PEAK DISTRICT has to be each way.

I like the last. The strongest profle and the best horse
on video is NOVILLERO. He should easily have won
his last race but there is some signs of temprement so
I am nervous about that and aware that I cant know as
much as I would like in a typical trappy 3yo handicap.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


Saturday goes down as a break level day with two
suggestions resulting in an even money winner so
we held our own and nothing more on the day. I'm
staying with Wolverhampton today and the last 4
races on the card. I dont see much I like elsewhere


FFOS LAS

The card has not gripped me at all. Just a couple of
things to mention. I thought the Maiden Hurdle at
1.35pm lacked any strong profiles either negative or
positive. I would look for an each way bet. I wouldnt
be interested in Bescot Springs much. He wouldnt be
my first choice much as there are no negatives. I see
the likely winner 1 of the 3 main runners just behind
him in the market but its anyones guess which on is
the right one. Possibly Thehillofuisneach each way.


Going to duck the Novice Chase at 2.10pm with the
favourite Blazing Bailey looking weak in the market
at 9/4. I ran his profile through every Novice Chase
in January. Horses like him running in Grade 2 hurdles
last time out but this season over at least 17 furlongs
and with 13 or more career starts. These horses like
Blazing Bailey had a W W W W record from the four
that tried so whilst some may say he isnt the same as
he was and is on the downgrade I'll watch with some
interest as statistically I dont have problems with him.
Overall though its Wolverhampton that has the best
card and I want to stay there.



WOLVERHAMPTON


Staying with the 4 Handicaps at the end of the card
today. There wasnt much I could say in the other 2
earlier races. In the Maiden at 1.55pm I feel you can
ignore the 4 outsiders. I'd add SLAP AND TICKLE
as an unraced 4yo filly. These horses have a 0-131
record in all January maidens and I wish she was a
shorter price. I think there are too many 3 year olds
with chances for AMERICAN LIGHT to win and I
would oppose him as well. I think the winner should
be one of the other 3 year olds. I think its impossible
to split them and it certainly is statistically. I think a
guess is all you can do. IL FORNO is marginally the
most likely winner for me but I think a better bet has
to be FLAXEN LAKE each way around 4/1 or better

I didnt fancy the seller at 2.30pm. If I had previewed
this race I would have built an argument around the
weak profile Magenta Strait has. She isnt a brilliant
negtaive at all but she does have the weakest profile
of the fancied runners and I would have taken her on.
That said she is drifting and there wont be much value
in opposing her. I thought WANCHAI WHISPER had
the best chance and would win - but I wasnt going to
take odds on when I had two others in Blue Neptune
and Zelos Dream as fine statistically as well. I think it
is one of those races for a split stake bet covering all
the angles. I'd have half on WANCHAI WHISPER at
around evens. Half on BLUE NEPTUNE as a Place bet.
Both horses ran in the same race last time. They are
tied together. They have the recent runs. Its hard to
see one of those bets not winning and if that happens
you wont lose money. Thats how I'd be betting.



WOLVERHAMPTON 3.05

Bet Australian Open Tennis - Betdaq Apprentice
Handicap (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-60) 1m4f50y

9/2 No Wonga, 11/2 Moscow Oznick, 11/2 Sonny Sam,
13/2 Law Of The Jungle, 7/1 Covert Mission, 8/1 Barbirolli, 8/1 Spring Hawk, 10/1 Mekong Miss, 12/1 Highland River, 16/1 Duneen Dream, 20/1 Terminate, 25/1 Wizard Of Us.

* This is a 12f handicap for Apprentices
* There has been 58 similar races at this time of year
* There has been 390 races at 12f for all jockeys
* WIZARD OF US is a 10yo absent 56 days
* He shouldnt be fit enough to win this
* TERMINATE has to go aged 8 absent 81 days
* MEKONG MISS looks vulnerable
* She is a filly with 1 run since June
* She was hammered in that race and looks out of sorts
* I cant find a winner like DUNEEN DREAM
* Not so underraced recently and down in trip
* LAW OF THE JUNGLE has a complicated profile
* I looked at all 4yo fillies like her from 12f handicaps
* They were 4-94 but just 1-63 with 8st 11lbs or more
* None had a recent race as she does
* Most had won a race and come from a better class race
* LAW OF THE JUNGLE just didnt impress me statistically
* SPRING HAWK has got me in knots
* A Filly beaten 15 lengths just 3 days ago in a seller over 9f
* I would have thought that was a revolting profile
* To my absolute astonishment I have found a similar winner
* If she pops up at a big price I will be surprised
* But even finding a similar winner I have to look elsewhere
* HIGHLAND RIVER is 4 and comes from an 8f handicap
* Only 25 horses did that and just 1 won
* That sole winner was a differet type and I wasnt impressed
* SONNY SAM is unexposed and comes from a 14f handicap
* There were many 4 year olds doing that succesfully
* Those aged 5 or more were 1-51 and none were just 5 (0-19)
* I dont see a particularly strong case for him
* He is also 0-16 on all codes and I respect but reject him
* BARBIROLLI is ok statistically
* I have found a few winners his age pop up
* I dont see any strong reason why he should win
* He's recently downgraded to a trainer without a winner
* He was beaten last time in a weaker race than this
* His wins are usually in weaker races as well
* I dont think it will take much to beat him

POSSIBLES

* COVERT MISSION is hard to read
* She is a mare coming from hurdles
* On the plus side she looks fit - in form - well handicapped
* Thats a big start but there are doubts
* I wouldnt know how hurdling recently will affect her
* On what little I can see about her profile I like it
* NO WONGA is similar to a couple of winners
* I couldnt rule him out at all
* MOSCOW OZNICK has just won a maiden
* He has 15 career starts and a run within the past fortnight
* I looked at all similar types doing that and found a 3-9 record
* I would have to make MOSCOW OZNICK a positive
* I am asking myself this question
* Any Lingfield 12f maiden winner with a recent run
* Would I expect them to have the class for a 0-60
* I would really and MOSCOW OZNICK could win this
* His draw worries me and he could be held up
* I dont see a better option though

SELECTION - MOSCOW OZNICK

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WOLVERHAMPTON 3.40

Dine In The Horizons Restaurant Handicap
(CLASS 7) (4yo+ 0-50) 1m141y

9/2 King´s Jester, 5/1 Kirstys Lad, 13/2 Always The Sun,
8/1 Hi Spec, 9/1 Son Of Monsieur, 9/1 Viking Awake, 10/1
Red Current, 12/1 Amber Ridge, 12/1 Libre, 14/1 Kims Rose,
14/1 Stark Contrast, 16/1 Mrs Slocombe, 20/1 Le Reve Royal.

* This is an 8.5f handicap for 0-50 rated horses
* There has been 194 similar races at this time of year
* Mares from claimers (0-35) and from 11f or longer (0-46)
* MRS SLOCOMBE has both the above to overcome
* KIMS ROSE is out as a mare absent 775 days
* LE REVE ROYAL is a maiden 4yo filly
* None were beaten as far as she was last time
* HI SPEC has a weak profile as an exposed mare absent a month
* ALWAYS THE SUN is a filly with a months absence
* Fillies absent a month or more were 6-166
* Those beaten 10 + lengths last time like her were 0-94
* Those aged 4 were just 2-92
* Those without a win were just 1-81
* ALWAYS THE SUN doesnt offer me enough
* RED CURRENT is a filly from a 7f race
* Very few won and none were absent as long as her
* None were beaten more than 10 lengths last time (0-54)
* VIKING AWAKE comes from a 7f race
* No horse like him did that beaten so far
* None did it with as long an absence and he is weak
* AMBER RIDGE is exposed with 1 run since August
* Thats not enough for a horse with no backclass
* STARK CONTRAST has been well beaten in his last 2 runs
* I looked at all similar types coming from a heavy defeat
* None won without much more backclass
* STARK CONTRAST didnt come out well
* LIBRE is 10 and on a losing run of 23
* Horses aged 10 have won races but most were different
* Almost all had form in higher class before
* LIBRE looks almost there but not quite
* Would be no surprise to see him place though

POSSIBLES

* SON OF MONSIEUR is 4 and was well beaten last time
* I ran his profile in 194 races and found 1 winner
* I like him as he wasnt cheap and didnt stay 9f last time
* His sire stats suggest stamina beat him as does the video
* Back in trip he should be conisdered at a big price
* KING´S JESTER finished ahead of him in the same race
* He was a 33/1 also ran last time and I dont see a great profile
* I have to give him a chance but no more
* KIRSTYS LAD ran well last time and is fine statistically
* There has been a recent winner from his draw as well

SELECTION

Taking a chance on SON OF MONSIEUR each way 14/1.
Statistically I am happy enough. Stamina wise this is the
right way to go down in trip. Look at his run two starts
ago. Although 66/1 that was a 0-70 and he was 8lbs out
of the handicap. He was only beaten about 7 lengths in
that 0-70 handicap and this is no more than a 0-50 race.
I have to give him a chance as an unexposed 4yo to be
able to beat most of these horses. Small stable but their
last 3 runners were 1st 2nd and 3rd and a big price bet.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 4.10

Bet Masters Snooker - Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-100) 5f20y

5/2 Matsunosuke, 5/1 Nickel Silver, 6/1 Hoh Hoh Hoh,
6/1 Peak District, 8/1 Earlsmedic, 8/1 Ebraam, 8/1 Ivory Silk, 12/1 Glamorous Spirit, 25/1 Canadian Danehill.

* This is a 5f Handicap for horses rated 0-102
* There has been 53 similar races at this time of year
* MATSUNOSUKE is 8 and has just 1 run in 85 days
* That would worry me a lot as an 8yo
* I cant find a winner that had been as underraced
* EBRAAM comes from a 7f race to a 5f race
* Horses doing that were just 1-35
* No exposed horse like him managed it
* I see that as a problem and he doesnt appeal
* Especially from a handicap mark he hasnt won from
* HOH HOH HOH is 8 and hasnt ran in 113 days
* No horse as old as him won with that absence
* He has no form on sand of any note or when Fresh
* I cant make a good case for him
* Fillies won 4 of the 53 similar races
* None came from claimers like GLAMOROUS SPIRIT
* No filly as exposed as her defiled a months break
* GLAMOROUS SPIRIT is absent 47 days
* She has just 1 run since August
* She has no form here and is on a career high mark
* GLAMOROUS SPIRIT has far too many doubts
* IVORY SILK is a mare absent 46 days
* No female horse won absent a month when exposed
* Only 1 filly came from a 6f race
* That winner was unexposed and had a recent race
* Throw in a career high mark as well
* IVORY SILK wouldnt be my first choice
* CANADIAN DANEHILL is fit and running well
* That elevates him over many of these
* He was beaten in a 0-85 last time though
* This is a 0-102 and he hasnt won in that class yet
* I just think he may find one or two better horses
* I would certainly not have him as the oustider though

SHORTLIST

* EARLSMEDIC has 24 runs but only 1 was at 5f
* His worry's a Career high mark and no wins in this class
* He is worth a try over 5f again but it wont be easy
* He probably needs a career best but I wouldnt rule him out
* NICKEL SILVER is fine statistically
* His problems are a career high mark
* He hasnt yet won beyond class 4 yet
* He has the ability to but this needs a career best
* That said he was second last time in a 0-97
* That was from a horrible draw and this is only a 0-102
* NICKEL SILVER cant be ruled out for me
* PEAK DISTRICT ran well just 3 days ago
* He looks well handicapped and has to make the shortlist
* Especially after a strong run from a poor draw last time

SELECTION

I do think PEAK DISTRICT can beat Matsunosuke in the
match bet at odds against. I think you can only consider
a few horses as a selection. PEAK DISTRICT e/w for me.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 4.40

Bet African Nations Cup - Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 6) (3yo 0-60) 7f32y

3/1 Feel The Magic, 7/2 Bookiesindex Girl, 4/1 Novillero
6/1 Vilnius, 10/1 Marosh, 12/1 Charlottesometimes, Darling Buds16/1 Scintillating, 20/1 Fareham Town, 33/1 Teeraha.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 7f for 0-59 rated horses
* There has been 57 similar races at this time of year
* MAROSH comes from a 2yo maiden over 6f
* No winners did that with 4 + runs
* None did it from an Auction maiden either
* No filly was absent as long as TEERAHA
* SCINTILLATING is a filly from a 3yo handicap over 7f
* Fillies like that with a run in a month won 2 races
* Those like her with 7 + runs were just 1-22
* That winner ran better than she did last time
* Dont fancy her - Cant rule her out - overpriced at 16/1
* FEEL THE MAGIC is in the same position
* She is a filly from a recent 7f handicap with 7 + runs
* I give her a chance but its not a great profile
* Only 1 of the 57 winners had a similar one
* BOOKIESINDEX GIRL is another filly from a 7f handicap
* Like the above horses he has a chance but isnt strong
* VILNIUS is another filly from a 7f handicap
* Statistically these types dont impress much
* FAREHAM TOWN is another filly from a 7f handicap
* None were as inexperienced as her or beaten as far
* DARLING BUDS fails exactly the same angles
* I can't find a winner like either
* Fillies from 6f races had a 4-113 record
* Those with under 7 runs were just 1-66
* CHARLOTTESOMETIMES fails that and is weak
* NOVILLERO probably has the best profile
* He was badly hampered several times in his last race
* He finished 5th in the same race as many of these last time
* If you watch the video of that race his chance is obvious
* I think NOVILLERO will win
* Its a bit worrying he had 2 early slaps of the whip last time
* Not sure if that means he has temprement issues
* Bottom line is 10 horses run and something must win
* NOVILLERO has the best profile
* He looked best on video last time
* I couldnt find a better option in the race

SELECTION - NOVILLERO

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