Daily Recommendation

No Bet Today


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REVIEW OF YESTERDAY

Second place yesterday with LUCKY DIVA. She ran well
and almost as well as I had thought. Perhaps she was not
in the best position during the race and I thought she may
have been a bit more prominent but that didnt cost her as
she ran into a Barney Curley horse that was clearly better
on the day. Little dissapointed by that. You can argue she
was an unneccesary risk because of the winner coming from
the Curley yard and being a dark horse. Thats a subjective
argument though and you can always find reasons for not
going with a bet and I am a past master at that so not too
dissapointed. My other choice from the message managed
to win. Olympic Dream won easily and I did say yesterday
that the best advice was to bet him and bet him to get the
stakes for Lucky Diva so I hope many people came away
without losing money on the day. I suspect many have so
they will have done the right thing. Others wont though
so I wish now I had gone with the two win bets and double
that I rejected because of non runners. The Filly ran well
but just found one too good for her on the day sadly.


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MESSAGE THOUGHTS


LINGFIELD has been abandoned and with it any realistic
chance of a bet today. That leaves us with only Southwell
and a small card of 6 races and very little choice today as
the weather has beaten every other meeting on the day.

Many of you will want a bet. Many will want to leave the
day alone and get some other things done. There is not a
bet today. I have looked at all 6 Southwell races and have
to leave it up to you whether you want to get involved. I
dont want to bother myself especially as non runners now
seem certain to damage most of these races presumably as
many stables are having travel problems.

I dont see why I shouldnt have a good chance in the 12.30
and 1.00pm races much as these are smaller fields. The big
factor in the 1.35pm is whether I can beat the favourite so
hard to know what my chances are there. The 2.05pm has
now been reduced to 7 runners and thats typical as I'd argue possibly my most interesting bet was JOHANNESGRAY as
an each way bet around 5/1. Thats lost now but I still think he is as good a bet as any on the day. I like my 2.40pm bet but so do others and the price could have been better. The last race has got under my skin and I am far from certain I have got that right. Both non runners were big negatives so things have conspired against me there and I feel week here.

Those that want several bets just follow the message through to the end with small stakes. Those wanting one bet perhaps a win bet on JOHANNESGRAY offers the best option as he is a reasonably good price. Those wanting a day off wont be missing anything and I wouldnt blame you for sweving things.

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TODAY'S RACING


SOUTHWELL 2.30

Toteplacepot Nursery (CLASS 5) (2yo 0-70) 6f

9/4 Je Suis Unrockstar, 3/1 Slatey Hen
7/2 Dunmore Boy 9/2 Bachelor Knight,

This is a messy 6f Nursery for 0-66 rated 2 year olds. There are 56 similar races at this time of year. SLATEY HEN last run in a Claimer. None of the 56 winners were fillies coming from a Claimer and none of any sex came from a 6f Claimer. JE SUIS UNROCKSTAR and DUNMORE BOY won handicaps over 5f last time. Both have to be positives but it is interesting the only winners doing that won without a recent race and the ones like JE SUIS UNROCKSTAR running with a fortnight are 0-7 and I would argue DUNMORE BOY has the slightly better profile. His problem is he is from a sire whose had winners on all Sand tracks except this one and well beaten when favourite on his only start here the Jury is still out about whether he can handle the track. The best profile is BACHELOR KNIGHT.

* Horses coming from 7f handicaps
* Male horses with at least 9 career starts
* Beaten more than 5 lengths last time out
* Having won a race before
* Horses with that profile were W 4 W 2 W in a 3-5 record

BACHELOR KNIGHT isnt proven on the surface but
most of these are not and his ability to handle slower
ground will stand him in good stead. I like horses like
him coming down in trip in these races and overall in
a race where you can't be certain what will happen as
so many are unproven her he looks the best option.

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SOUTHWELL 1.00

Toteexacta Handicap (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-75) 1m3f

7/4 Kumbeshwar, 3/1 Castle Myth
3/1 General Tufto, 5/1 Eton Fable
16/1 Ramora.

This is an 11f Handicap for 0-72 rated horses. Statistically this is a very hard trip to offer opinion on as there are only 23 races like this at this time of year. There are 130 similar races if you include the 12f handicaps as well. ETON FABLE looks an unsafe choice after been thrashed last time on his only race in months.
RAMORA didnt run well enough last time. KUMBESHWAR won
a claimer last time beating CASTLE MYTH into 3rd place. I did find an exposed 4yo like CASTLE MYTH winning from a claimer but that horse did win last time. I did find a couple of 3 year olds winning from a claimer like KUMBESHWAR but both of these were lighter raced. Both these horses are Positives much as I can not match them exactly to a winner. GENERAL TUFTO won a race 2 days ago but that was over a Mile and this is a 3f step up in trip. Horses from 8f or shorter won 10 of the 130 races but
those running within a week were 0-15. His form at in races at 11f and more here isnt as strong as his Mile form and I am a bit uncomfortable with his step up in distance. Overall I think the best profile is probably KUMBESHWAR but its wide open and CASTLE MYTH must also go well. KUMBESHWAR is my idea of the winner though. He has under half as many races before as CASTLE MYTH has has yet has still achieved more backclass and he should confirm the form with Castle Myth the other day

SELECTION - KUMBESHWAR


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SOUTHWELL 1.35

Totequadpot Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (3yo+) 1m4f

Evs Diggeratt, 2/1 Camps Bay, 8/1 Dunaskin
10/1 Yossi, 16/1 Aldaado, 33/1 Baggsy, 33/1 Mojeerr.

This is a 12f Claiming race. There are only 12 of these races at this time of year so little I can say. MOJEERR makes no appeal at the weights. ALDAADO doesnt look fit. BAGGSY doesnt look the right type of 3yo filly. No horse aged 5 or more won with an absence of more than a month and DUNASKIN doesnt appeal as a 10 year old absent 72 days. DIGGERATT is in great form and has a recent run and has the best chance at the weights but she is a filly coming from an 8f race a huge step up in trip only 2 days
since her last run. That has got me paranoid and I think she has to be unsafe much as its impossible to get a statistical angle with her as no similar profile exists. I think YOSSI has a decent profile and whilst there are better horses at the weights he is fit and does
handle the surface and he has a lot of ticks in a lot of boxes and could go very well. CAMPS BAY has lots of backclass and has a great chance at the weights. Against him is a low strike rate for a horse with such ability and No form at Southwell. Thats a big worry but his sire has a 5-13 record with his runners at this track which does go some way to reassuring me. I think the two horses
that appeal most and CAMPS BAY and YOSSI but just 7 runners
limit options. CAMPS BAY has significantly more class and He should be able to give the weight away. I would play it this way

CAMPS BAY - Half Stakes as a win bet

CAMPS BAY- YOSSI - Half stakes Exacta or Forecast

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SOUTHWELL 2.05

Toteswinger Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 6f

11/4 Bonnie Prince Blue, 7/2 Silaah, 5/1 Dark Lane
5/1 Everymanforhimself, 7/1 Johannesgray
12/1 Yankee Storm, 14/1 Italian Tom, 16/1 Silver Wind.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-83 rated horses
* There are 101 similar races at this time of year

ITALIAN TOM has a better profile than you might think
as a 3yo from a 5f race but the only winner winning his age
had more backclass and he has all his wins at 5f and now has a career high mark and he looks unsafe. SILVER WIND isn't running well enough at the moment and does not offer me enough considering he has no Southwell form. I would have to take on BONNIE PRINCE BLUE. Not a big negative at
all but there are better profiles. EVERYMANFORHIMSELF
is also avoided as no similar horse came from claimers and
he has no Southwell form. That is a very weak list of horses to avoid and that tells me despite the small field its far too open a race to take a confident view in.

POSSIBLES

SILAAH is hard to read as an older horse coming from a 5f
handicap a few days ago. I ran his profile carefully and found all horses with very close profiles had a 1-4 record with that winner having much less weight. He is hard to decide about. The issue with DARK LANE is that he has only had 2 runs this season. To my surprise I did find a 4yo winner like him so I'd make him a Positive much as it doesnt feel ideal and I should mention his draw. There has been 46 handicaps here this year and only 1 winner came from stall 1 and its not an ideal draw. JOHANNESGRAY can't be ruled out and I found 1 similar 3 year old winner coming from a 5f race. There is a chance YANKEE STORM could win this as I have found two similar winners. He has had many chances to win here off similar marks but has failed. His only wins here were in two grades lower and off lower marks so he might just find one or two better treated at the weights these days. I have 4 shortlisted and given the choice JOHANNESGRAY looks the best option with less to prove and more improvement.

Selection - JOHANNESGRAY

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SOUTHWELL 2.40

Totepool A Better Way To Bet Handicap
(CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95) 7f


7/2 Nightjar, 5/1 Seek The Fair Land, 11/2 Sioux Rising
7/1 Docofthebay, 10/1 Bawaardi, 10/1 Salerosa
10/1 Trans Sonic, 12/1 Follow The Flag, 14/1 Something
14/1 Thunderball.

This is a 0-94 class handicap over 7f. There are 47 similar
races at this time of year. I am opposing SOMETHING as
an 8 year old absent 91 days. If you look at horses beaten
10 or more lengths last time over a Mile they struggle and
none were aged 4 like THUNDERBALL. None were as old
as FOLLOW THE FLAG either or had a recent run and I'd
be against this pair. No older filly like SIOUX RISING won
coming from a 6f race and she has never ran her before so
looks unsafe. TRANS SONIC isnt for me. There are some
older winners like him but they ran better than he did last
time out. I dont like the fact he is now 6lbs higher than his best previous mark suggesting he is badly handicapped. He might not have the best draw in the race as well and overall there are too many concerns about him. SALEROSA looks vulnerable as an exposed mare and her career high mark is putting me off her. I'd oppose these and shortlist 4 horses.

SHORTLIST

SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a decent profile and I found 2
similar winners. On the negative side he hasnt won here yet
although handling Fibresand and he is also trying to defy a
career high mark. Placed on his last 4 races and running well it seems unfair he has been raised 3lbs in the weights but it was a better class race last time and you can fancy him here on his last performance. NIGHTJAR seems a complicated horse and hard to win with but he is statistically strong and has a very smart record at this track so I shortlist him too. I would shortlist BAWAARDI after his run yesterday much as I cant find a similar winner. DOCOFTHEBAY is difficult to decide about. He comes from a Listed race. I found two winners like him but they both had long absences. He doesnt which makes him unsafe and he hasnt won from this handicap mark before. I see one of these 4 horses winning. Forced to pick I see NIGHTJAR and BAWAARDI as slightly safer.

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

NIGHTJAR 7/2 Win Bet

BAWAARDI 5/2 Place Bet

* If Bawaardi doesnt run Nightjar carried the whole stake
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SOUTHWELL 3.15

Bet totepool On All UK Racing Handicap
(CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-65) 6f

3/1 Ace Of Spies, 6/1 Apache Ridge, 13/2 Bel Cantor,
12/1 Darcy´s Pride, 25/1 Ballyvonane, 33/1 Fyodorovich.

This is a 6f Handicap for 0-65 rated horses. There has been
128 similar races at this time of year. Female horses coming from 5f races struggled. None were aged 5 or more and none were exposed (0-36) so DARCY´S PRIDE has to go. I do not see a strong case for FYODOROVICH. BEL CANTOR drops from a Mile and no horse as old won doing that. I looked for horses from Sellers like APACHE RIDGE. The only ones to win from sellers had far more backclass than he does and also ran better than him last time. He hasnt won on sand and lost badly on his only start he and he just feels too unsafe.

BALLYVONANE - Good profile but no track form
ACE OF SPIES - Good profile

SELECTION

BALLYVONANE 8/1 +

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