No Account Bets

June really starts for us now. Today is not a great days
racing but it looks much better tomorrow and Saturday.
I think we had some really strong account bets in May
and had no shortage of bad luck with horses that were
beaten in photo's at big prices and many of them were
trading at long odds on. There were winners as well so
as a Month it was far from a bad one but I think at the
very least we deserved far better than we got.


I want to increase the bets in June. The messages are
far too long and detailed not to get plenty of things in
them that don't work out as I'd like but overall the main
bets were excellent last month when we had no fortune
on our side and it could have been a bumper month. It
will level out though and it reminds you that if you stay
with bigger prices you come out ahead in the long run.


Unimpressive Flat cards today. There is quite a good
Handicap Chase at Newton Abbot I like today. That
may be the place to focus on as the flat cards did not
offer much at all. It is far from a banker but the race
has a nice shape to it and HUGUENOT looks reasonable
as an each way bet around 7/1 and he is my best bet

Today's Only Mention

Newton Abbot 3.30

HUGUENOT 7/1

Each Way if 8 run
Win only if fewer run


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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G



First message back after a day off yesterday. I still sent
a quick message yesterday but wished I had not as the
race at Fontwell once looking perfect for us turned sour.
I felt we had to oppose a negative and she was beaten
and trading at 100/1 in running before my choice in this
race hit the last and ran out of puff having gone a little
too early and too hard in my view. I don't think the best
horse won the race and think it was unlucky.


Three National Hunt cards today and Three Flat cards. Not
that impressed with the Flat cards to be honest. I don't see any really compelling races to get stuck into. Plenty of large fields and unsortable maidens and 3yo handicaps. Decided on just a quick look through some of the races on the grass. I'm looking at one National hunt race and will start with that.



N A T I O N A L H U N T


NEWTON ABBOT 3.30

Our Friends At SIS Handicap Chase
(CLASS 3) (5yo+ 0-125) 2m110y

11/4 Pilgrims Lane, 7/2 Earth Dream, 9/2 Helen Wood
6/1 Huguenot, 6/1 Mibleu, 7/1 Cortinas, 16/1 De Luain Gorm
33/1 Down The Stretch.

* This is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 235 similar races at this time of year
* Horses that dropped from 3m races won just 3 races
* Those with 13 or more career starts from 3m were 1-50
*Those aged 8 or more down from 3m were 0-44
* DOWN THE STRETCH is 13 and drops from 3m
* I would not want a 13 year old doing that
* DE LUAIN GORM is a 12 year old
* He has only won Hunter Chases before
* He was beaten 43 lengths over hurdles 5 days ago
* I can not find a horse beaten so far so recently
* I think he is too old to overcome that
* CORTINAS has not run in 206 days
* There are a few winners that defy that absence
* They dont score that well and most were different types
* He is also on a career high mark
* His trainer states he will need the run today as well
* I think he would be an unlikely winner
* MIBLEU won this race last year
* He did however had 2 prep runs last year and 1 this year
* He also had 9st 13lbs last year but 11st 1lbs this year
* Harder task with more weight and less preparation
* He could run well but overall I dont like his profile
* MIBLEU is an exposed 10 year old
* There were 32 winners like that in the 235 races
* Those that came from 2m races like him were 17-206
* He ran well last time on his first run since September 2009
* Interesting that all 17 winners ran within 2 weeks
* Those like MIBLEU that did not were 0-68
* That tells me none of the 235 winners were like him
* It tells me he may well want another run for fitness
* HELEN WOOD is an exposed mare with 24 starts
* I looked in 235 races for Mares from handicap chases
* There were 5 winners like that with 9 or more starts
* They all dropped in trip though
* Those mares from 2m races were 0-28
* She could run well but no winner was like her
* She was also beaten last time in a weaker race
* I wasnt impressed with her profile
* PILGRIMS LANE has just won a Novice Handicap
* That was over 2m 6f and this is a 2m race
* I looked at horses from Novice Handicaps over 2m 5f or more
* There were only 4 winners in the 235 races
* None of these were exposed like him
* None were aged 6 like him
* None won or were placed in that race like he was
* I looked at all 6 year olds from any handicap chase
* There were 18 winners but none dropped from 2m 5f or more
* He is in form and well treated but the drop to 2m is a problem
* Because of that PILGRIMS LANE wouldnt appeal at 3/1

SHORTIST

EARTH DREAM has an excellent profile. If you look at all
7 year olds like him that had 7-12 career starts and that were placed last time out in a 2m handicap chase. That resulted in a superb 6-10 record which included 3 that fell. There are 3 issues with him that need to be mentioned. None of these were ridden by a 7lbs claimer. Most had less weight than he does as well. My main objection though is that he has had just 1 run since July 2009 and most had more recent runs. I would be worried that he could regress or bounce from his last win and that makes him hard to predict. On his profile I have to shortlist him. I think the safer bet is HUGUENOT.

HUGUENOT has a very solid profile and looks reasonable
at 8/1 and each way if all 8 run. I don't see any flaws in his profile. He was beaten by Pilgrims Lane last time out and although that horse has run since and won HUGUENOT
was giving him lumps of weight and today is significantly
better off at the weights and actually gets weight from him. He is entitled to go very close to beating him today. This is a horse that loves fast ground and who has won on his only try at Newton Abbot. He is from a top class stable who are in form. He has a 2-8 Chase record so is not over exposed over fences. I see him as the best bet in the race

SELECTION - HUGUENOT (Each Way if 8 run) 8/1


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LINGFIELD

There are only 3 races on the Grass at Lingfield and 3 on the turf. There is not much we can do with the opening maiden. I suppose SHAREDAH will probably go close and win.


The 2.50pm looks impossible. Its a 3yo handicap around 11f.
The 7 past renewals show you want a horse that has run this
season coming from at least 9f and no further than 14f. There is also a poor record from horses beaten 10 + lengths last time. That produces a shortlist of 5 runners. For the record these are Motrice - Helaku - Oak Leaves - Red Amy and Captain Clint. I do not trust my angles in these 3yo handicaps. I feel unsafe in them. I passed MOTRICE as ok statistically. The race may well
be about how good she is and how much improvement she is
able to show. One side point is the draw. Its inconclusive but only 1 winner has won over this far at Lingfield drawn higher than stall 10 but only 39 have tried that. There is a quick sharp left hand bend after the start and I would argue that she has a pretty nasty draw for a filly. I'd look elsewhere on what is not a great shortlist. Maybe CAPTAIN CLINT as he comes from a race thats twice produced the winner of this race. Wide Open.


LINGFIELD 3.20

Yamaha - When You Need Real Horsepower
Handicap (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-55) 1m3f106y

4/1 Dovedon Angel, 4/1 Mossmann Gorge, 6/1 Prickles,
Top Seed, 10/1 Christophers Quest 10/1 Le Corvee
12/1 Comrade Cotton, 14/1 Fleur De´lion 16/1 Catholic Hill
33/1 Aston Boy 33/1 Behest,

The 3.20pm is a similar race over the same trip but for all aged horses. Its too difficult as a race really. It will be interesting if the draw plays a part as there's a small hint the very high draw horses might have a lot to do. I would be in no hurry to bet an 8 year old like MOSSMANN GORGE drawn high with one race this season. DOVEDON ANGEL is also drawn high and I hate her profile. I looked at Fillies down in trip from 13f or more and
there are 2 winners but those that had under 21 runs were 0-50 in all similar races and those aged 4 were 0-41. Combined with a bad draw I'd not want DOVEDON ANGEL. I would not want one of the older debutants like TOP SEED or LE CORVEE. The profile of ASTON BOY and BEHEST is weak. There looks no promise in CATHOLIC HILL's profile. FLEUR DE´LION was well beaten last time out and I couldnt find a filly like her.

CHRISTOPHERS QUEST - Not a strong profile

COMRADE COTTON - Looks unsafe but shortlistable

PICKLES - Has enough to be shortlisted

I wouldnt have a strong opinion here. It would not surprise
me is the well treated Top Seed won first time out despite a horse thats on my negatives list with his absence. I suppose PICKLES came out reasonably well in an open race.

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H A M I L T O N


It is an uninspiring card at Hamilton today and not a lot I
can say here. The first race is a maiden that has Fancied
horses as both unraced and coming from the sand so that
does not give me confidence in a weak betting race.


HAMILTON 2.40

Cheque Centre Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (3-5yo) 6f5y

7/4 Caprio, 2/1 Cawdor, 3/1 Newbury Street,
8/1 Clear Ice, 16/1 Star Addition.

This is a 6f Claimer and there are about 94 of these races
at this time of year. I think CAPRIO is the obvious one to
be with. It could be tactical with such a small field but I'd see him as having an edge being older and experienced
and from a 7f handicap. I don't mind 3 year olds in these
races but neither of the 3 year olds in this race looked as
good. Horses aged 3 coming from Claimers do win these
races. They have a 3-52 record but all 3 were fillies and
the males that tried it were 0-20. Only 1 horse aged 3 in
the 94 races came from a 6f claimer and that was a female
with a very recent run. Small sample sizes but what there
is suggest NEWBURY STREET and CLEAR ICE as 3yo's
are not as strong as CAPRIO. I think CAWDOR has just
an average profile. I would have to be with CAPRIO here.


I don't fancy the 3.10pm Handicap with the market leaders
drawn in the lowest and highest stall not to mention there
is also The Bear running a horse thats hard to predict. Its
complicated as there has been plenty of very low and very
high drawn winners in handicaps recently here. For what it
is worth my negatives in this are Barraland - Cayman Fox
Sandwith -Compton Lad -Howards Prince - Mr Rooney and
Monte Mayor One. I could not bet any of those runners.


The 3.40pm at Hamilton is a Mile Handicap. I would see the
following as negatives. TEN TO THE DOZEN -SILLY GILLY
WRONGWAYROUND - EMIRATE ISLE- ANTHEMION and
PRIMO WAY. Just a bit better than negatives but described
better as unsafe would be PAPA´S PRINCESS -COLD QUEST.
I prefer DARING DREAM but wasn't blow away by his profile
and I feel CROCODILE BAY arguably has the strongest one.
The selection in this race has to be CROCODILE BAY.


The 4.10pm does not interest me as KING OF EDEN looks the
one. I liked his profile but he is too short in the betting really and as I did not like Cheyenne Red or Tadalavil's profile there did not seem much opposition. DICKIE LE DAVOIR could run well despite him starting slowly all the time but he has to give weight to KING OF EDEN who has far more scope and I think its best to assume KING OF EDEN will probably win again.


The 4.40pm is a trappy 7 runner handicap that does not interest me and with Bona Fortuna unbackable at the price but so hard to oppose it was another race I couldn't go with on a tough card.

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