No Account Bet


First message of the week. Catterick and Chepstow dominate
today and I have covered plenty at both meetings and overall quite an interesting message with plenty to contemplate today.


Initially I felt Catterick was a bit easier but not so sure now as many non runners have come out and it's feeling a bit scrappy with some small field races. It won't be the most likely winner at Catterick but I do like KYZER CHIEF's profile in the 4pm and its only a poor last run and a 1-33 career record that has put me off a little. His last run has been accounted for on the numbers though and he could be worth a small bet at 13/2 and I think I'd rather risk a bigger priced bet than something more
obvious like Strikemaster in the 2.30pm. Small Bet with him.


I know my angles are a little bit suspect in the 12f handicap at Chepstow 2.45 but I shortlist just HARARE at 12/1 and there are some genuine excuses for some recent defeats and he's not out of this and given his price I intend to have a few quid on.


I have had a short run of big priced selections that have not won recently. I explain later in the mail that we have come out of July with a decent profit and its been a lot better than the last week has made it look. Decision today is whether to go with another big priced speculative bet. I feel with Lower grade racing today I will leave the day selection Free and go with a Blank day but I have small bets on the above horses and that will play me into the week with excellent tracks on Wednesday that I hope will offer us something stronger.


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Start of a Fresh week and now starting August as well so I'm pleased to get July out of the way. July for me is always the hardest month of the year mainly because of the workload it brings and it does not surprise me that I have had few bets on the account this Month. It does get easier now with fewer meetings so hopefully I can find some stronger bets. July has not been as bad a month as it might feel. My figures have not been great in the last few days of July but we were dealing with big prices and overall it was better than it looked or felt.

July has provided 27 selections. Three of these were placed and returned the stakes so from the 24 other bets although I only found 6 winners there were some decent prices there so a £20 bet on every selection in July would have resulted in a profit of over £300 on the Month. Thats a 15 point profit which is much more than I'd have expected and pleased with that much as the last few days have not been too impressive.

I will repeat what I always say that the Top of the Message
may have it quiet times but it wont let you down long term.
I'd add that the best way of using the service is to follow all the bets in the opening paragraph for better or worse but its not just about that. The messages are detailed and there are some important angles there. Sometimes these do not work which in turn teaches us things we did not previously know but many times they do and it can illustrate just what might be the important factors to consider in a race and why and in a game that can Tame the fiercest of Lions you begin to look at races in different ways from other punters and your knowledge and experience improves as you go along and as a grounding for betting it is second to none and nothing out there will teach us as much and I include myself in that too.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


Rest day yesterday and no message. Just looking back at the
Sunday message. Not a great one overall. Quite a few horses
went down in photos but it was only the Amateur Riders race
at Newbury that I felt was worth a bet. I still cant belive that I shortlisted the 1st 3rd and 4th and came out losing in this race. I went with Masterofceremonies who and saved on the third knowing they would run their race. I rejected the winner only on his lack of Turf form but knew he was the one to be with if he handled the grass but made the wrong call and just missed him. Did all the hard work with a 0-139 statistic that worked out well and annoyed with myself to mess that up.


I am staying with Chepstow and Catterick today with a better set of races than the other meetings. Nothing interests me at FFOS LAS so I'm ignoring the one jumps card. SOUTHWELL has too many runners tonight so no great interest there either. I quite like the 2m race at 8.05 especially with so many horses taking severe leaps in distance. There's not enough evidence to take a safe view as there's no similar races at this time of year at Southwell so you have to take a chance. I felt Simonside had one of the better profiles in the race and looked potentially a saver but ACT OF KALANISI came out best of all. We can't know if he will handle the Southwell Fibresand surface so there are limits to how confident we can be but he would be my bet.



CATTERICK 2.00

European Breeders´ Fund Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5) (2yo) 7f

7/4 Campos, 5/2 Janet´s Pearl, 5/1 White Fusion
10/1 Marie Du Plessis, 12/1 Red Oleander, 20/1 Hartforth
20/1 Playful Girl, 20/1 Regimental, 33/1 Better Self
33/1 Phoenix Flame, 66/1 Salagadoola.

This is a 7f Maiden race. I wouldnt see past one of either of CAMPOS or JANET'S PEARL. These races are difficult for
so many unknown factors and this one is no different as we
have CAMPOS as an Irish horse which complicates it more.
I take the view that WHITE FUSION is opposable because
he is unraced. Catterick have 28 of these 7f maidens at this time of year. Unraced horses had a 1-61 record. This is not an easy track for a debutant to win on. I looked at maidens at any distance in July and August for Howard Johnsons 2yo debutants and found a 0-21 record which reinforces my view he should be opposed. PHOENIX FLAME is eliminated too as he is the other debutant. RED OLEANDER might well be being handicapped so I will ignore her. MARIE DU PLESSIS doesnt appeal hammered over 5f last time. Horses doing that with 1 run and a race within a month were 0-24. Hard to see past CAMPOS and JANET'S PEARL. Could be an each way double race. My best guess is JANET'S PEARL but I'd be a lot more comfortable with an each way double.

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CHEPSTOW 2.15

Rhomco Consulting Ltd
Median Auction Maiden Fillies´ Stakes
(CLASS 5) (2yo) 5f16y

11/4 Pearl Opera, 4/1 Veeb, 9/2 Madam Mayem
9/2 Scommettitrice, 9/2 Upark Flyer, 14/1 Magical Star
16/1 Kilk, 33/1 Manasha, 100/1 Princess Eliza.

I can't have a strong view in the opening maiden at 2.15pm with an unraced favourite. This has not been a great race for debutants so far (0-12) so I would look for a horse with experience. I was going to assume Master Mayem is being handicapped but there is some money for him so maybe thats wrong. Technically the best profile is SCOMMETTITRICE but I am not keen on her draw so I will suggest VEEB from a better draw but little confidence here
and the gamble on Madam Mayem does open this up even more.

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CATTERICK 2.30

Yorkshire4X4.com Adventure Activities Selling Stakes
(CLASS 6) (3-5yo)1m7f177y

6/4 Strikemaster, 15/8 Shannersburg, 7/2 Lava Lamp
12/1 Lady Norlela, 12/1 Magneto, 40/1 Napoletano.

* This is a selling race over just short of 2 miles
* There are 14 renewals of this race
* There are no other similar races anywhere in July-August

I would have to oppose MAGNETO coming from a 7f race with
just 1 run this season. There are actually 60 of these races at all times of year and no horse came from 7f or shorter either. It is probably too tough a question mark for him. LADY NORLELA comes out as an unnatractive bet well beaten over 12f this year and NAPOLETANO looks outclassed. I think it will be won by one of the other horses. SHANNERSBURG is not for me. I see a potential problem in that he has raced just once since January
and that was over hurdles. There could easily be a fitness issue there. Its also interesting his Sire has never bred a winner over this far yet. I have no problem with LAVA LAMP and there is a past winner of this race that came from the same handicap at Beverley last time. Horses aged 3 like him are fine and won this race 5 times but they were all Fillies though and he is a Male. I think the slightly better and safer bet is STRIKEMASTER.

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CHEPSTOW 2.45

Brewin Dolphin Handicap (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-60) 1m4f23y

3/1 Jasmeno, 5/1 War Of The Roses, 9/1 Garafena, Mr Maximas
10/1 Dancing Storm, 10/1 Suor Angelica, 11/1 Princess Flame
11/1 Starstruck Peter, 12/1 Steely Bird, 14/1 Harare
16/1 Herecomethegirls, 20/1 Bonnie Bea, 20/1 Contrada
20/1 Monaadi, 25/1 Bute Street, 33/1 Court Wing, 40/1 Aston Boy.

The 2.45pm Handicap looks quite lethal. If you take the renewals of this race you come up with 1 horse that passes all the statistics. All past winners of this race had at least 7 career starts. None of them came up from 8f or down from a 2m race. No winners had form in Class 2 of higher before. Males were best and I would also
oppose seasonal debutants. Finally no horses won with 9st 9lbs or more. Apply these angles and you are left with HARARE which is quite interesting as he comes from the same Chepstow race as the 2003-2006-2009 winners came from much as they were different types. I think the ground beat him last time and he was outclassed at Chester before that. He is not proven yet at 12f but there are
excuses for his defeats at this trip. He is well handicapped. There are a lot of good reasons why HARARE could be decent value in this race at a double figure price.

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CATTERICK 3.00

13th August Is Ladies Evening Handicap
(CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-75) 5f212y

11/4 Minturno, 9/2 Night Trade, 11/2 Dancing Red Devil
13/2 Mandalay King, 8/1 Klynch, 8/1 Slikback Jack
10/1 Chambers, 10/1 Wyatt Earp, 14/1 Grand Stitch.

This is a 0-74 Handicap just short of 6 furlongs. There are
591 similar races at this time of year. Several 3yo fillies win these races but those like DANCING RED DEVIL with only 1-2-3 runs this year were far better with under 7 career starts.

* 3yo Fillies with 1-2-3 runs this season were 15-206
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5-6 runs were 14-126
* Those with 7 or more runs were just 1-80

Having had 8 runs DANCING RED DEVIL doesn't fit into a
good place with under 4 runs this year and she is not for me. NIGHT TRADE is another 3yo filly. I looked at fillies like her without form beyond a class 4 race before and between 9-20 runs. Difficult to read her profile. None had 13 starts like her. They all had 9-12 runs and although I can forgive her an extra start they all had lighter weights as well and It is probably going to be tough carrying that weight and I see better options. Males aged 3 absent over a month were not strong and none came from all aged handicaps either and I see some weakness in SLIKBACK JACK. Horses aged 4 like GRAND STITCH from 5f races struggled and none were like him.WYATT EARP's profile would have looked better with a more recent run but I found many winners like him with a single problem in that those with 9st 8lbs or more scoring a weak 0-44 record and he has more weight. I couldnt rule him out especially with excuses last time so will shortlist him. It
is hard to read MINTURNO. If you take 4 year olds like him
from 6f handicaps running in the past 2 weeks and without a
run beyond a Class 4 race you find 11 winners. However the
horses with 21 or more runs were 0-45 and he's just had 21.
Those with 15-20 runs were fine so the issue with him will
be whether that is forgiveable or not. Not an easy decision.

MINTURNO - Complex profile but last run helps
WYATT EARP - Happier if he had less weight/recent run
CHAMBERS - Unimpressive profile but 1 similar winner
KLYNCH - Perfectly solid profile and every chance
MANDALAY KING - 2nd last year and could go well

Force me to pick and it'd be MANDALAY KING each way
but with too many shortlisted Its a little bit too open.

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CHEPSTOW 3.15

GDS International Nursery (CLASS 5) (2yo) 6f16y

9/4 Miss Dutee, 7/2 Barista, 9/2 Just For Leo, 8/1 Rosina Grey 10/1 Salvationist, 12/1 Pick A Little, 14/1 Maggie´s Treasure 16/1 Fred Willetts, 16/1 Mystica.

This is a 6f Nursery and there are 264 similar races at this time of year. I don't like previewing these races with angles that cane be unclear. I looked at fillies like MISS DUTEE in the 264 races that win 6f Nurseries last time with under five career starts. There was a 1-12 record so nothing too special there. She just feels a bit too short at 11/10 and because she is a Richard Hannon horse she is underpriced. BARISTA has better claims in my view around 5/1. He ran just 3 days ago so will be fitter than most and he drops in Class as well. I'd rather bet BARISTA each way at the prices myself.

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CATTERICK 3.30

Racinguk.com Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 1m5f175y

7/4 Bergonzi, 5/2 Akbabend, 5/2 Sir Royal, 11/2 Autumn Harvest.

This is a nasty small field race over an extended 13f. There are 345 similar handicaps over 13f-14f. I didnt like SIR ROYAL as well beaten last time and up in distance and I couldnt find a horse winning with so few runs this year. AUTUMN HARVEST has no easy task coming from 10f with just 2 runs this season and None of the 345 winners managed that like him. Those without a run in at least a Class 2 race struggled. Those aged 4 or more doing it were 0-28 and I see him as weak. It is a tight call between the
last time out winner BERGONZI and AKBABEND. I am drawn
much more to AKBABEND as an unexposed 4 year old. Biggest
problem for him could be his 10st weight but in a tiny field I am going to overlook that and select AKBABEND to win this.

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CHEPSTOW 3.45

Yolk Recruitment Selling Stakes (CLASS 6) (2yo) 6f16y

9/4 Crown Ridge, 4/1 Diamond Vine, 11/2 Sarandjam
13/2 Painters Easel, 7/1 The Best Mode, 10/1 River Blade
16/1 Ad Vitam, 16/1 Silver Age, 20/1 Avon Causeway
25/1 Snapshott, 50/1 Capall Dorcha, 50/1 Majestic Ridge.

This is a 6f seller for 2 year olds. No past renewals so 166 similar races to look at. No great trends in this race. If you look at Male horses coming from 7f sellers with under Nine career starts there's a 0-76 record so I'll avoid SARANDJAM. I dont like any of the outsiders. I'm against SILVER AGE as unraced Males are just 2-61. DIAMOND VINE comes from a 6f Maiden and no horse did that with 4 or more career starts. No horse came from a 7f maiden like AD VITAM with more than 3 career starts. I am open minded in this race. Not that convinced about anything. CROWN RIDGE is "Ok" and just about bearable statistically but two horses with a better profile
and with far more similar winners are much better prices and I will shortlist both RIVER BLADE and PAINTERS EASEL.

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CATTERICK 4.00

Goracing.co.uk Handicap (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-60) 5f

9/2 Fashion Icon, 6/1 Loss Leader, 7/1 Baby Queen, 7/1 Raccoon 8/1 Kyzer Chief, 8/1 Pressed For Time 11/1 Spirit Of Coniston 14/1 Azygous, Alacity, 16/1 Ballarina 16/1 Maragna

This looks an impossible 5f Handicap. I have looked at all these Class 6 handicaps in July and August. I do not want a seasonal debutant so BALLARINA and MARAGNA are out. Fillies down from a 6f race were 0-44 without at least 4 runs that year so I am opposing ALACITY. LOSS LEADER does not look right as a 3 year old down from a 6f race. Horses aged 3 doing that within 2 weeks were 1-58 and those from all aged handicaps were 0-36 so he is rejected. BABY QUEEN is quite complicated to assses.
I looked at all 4yo fillies with 9-20 runs and 1-2-3-4-5 runs that year. There were 5 winners and all 5 ran within 2 weeks and had ran in at least a Class 4 race before. She has done neither and just misses out because of that. AZYGOUS lacks fitness in my view as a 7 year old with 2 runs this year. RACCOON looks unsafe aged 10 from a Claimer and not convinced he is ready to win yet this
year. SPIRIT OF CONISTON didnt do enough last time out for
a 7 year old and is hardly drawn that well. I looked at 4yo fillies like PRESSED FOR TIME from 5f races and 1-6 runs this year and all winners like that had more backclass. Those that did not run within 7 days were only 1-58 anyway and she did not look a horse with a strong profile so I am shortlisting just 3 runners.

* FASHION ICON - Enough in her favour to shortlist
* KYZER CHIEF - Strong profile and no flaws

SELECTION - KYZER CHIEF

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CHEPSTOW 4.15

Absolute Recruitment Maiden Stakes
(CLASS 5) (3yo+) 7f16y

8/11 Advertisement, 4/1 Kalk Bay, 10/1 Spanish Island
12/1 Astound, 12/1 Naughty Naughty, 16/1 Filibuster
16/1 Swingle, 20/1 Waabel, 25/1 Tiscaline, 28/1 Katmai River 40/1 Mistress Shy, 50/1 Mushy Peas, 50/1 Tigers Charm66/1 Little Buddy.

This is a Maiden for all aged horses over 7f. I would find it hard to look past ADVERTISEMENT here. There are just
3 realistic dangers. I looked at SPANISH ISLAND and felt
he was weak. Horses with 1 run like him beaten more than
10 lengths in a 3yo maiden running within 7 weeks scored
a 0-48 record which doesn't surprise me. KALK BAY has
better claims as he drops from an 8f race. He is probably
the danger to ADVERTISEMENT who I Think ought to
have a bit too much for him. Could be one of those races
to avoid given the prices but I see ADVERTISEMENT as
the winner and KALK BAY placing as well.

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CATTERICK 4.30

Telephone 01748 810165 To Book Hospitality
Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (3yo+) 1m3f214y

9/4 Eijaaz, 3/1 Sudden Impulse , 9/2 Lucayan Dancer
12/1 Jenny Soba, 50/1 Dark Gem, 100/1 Bluebaru.

This is a Claimer just short of 12 furlongs. There are 103 similar races at this time of year. BLUEBARU and DARK GEM are not considered as possible winners. I respect LUCAYAN DANCER but feel a 10 year old like him may need more runs this year and lacking a recent run I'd oppose him too. SUDDEN IMPULSE is hard to like as a 9yo mare absent a long time with no backclass to fall back on. I cant find a winner like him and his best record is on right handed tracks. There were 25 winners that came from 10f or shorter but none were aged 9 or more like EIJAAZ and it
is his biggest problem. Even horses aged 7 or more coming from 10f had a weak 2-54 record- and although I can say both of these won within the last week as he does they both had form in better class races and none were as old as him. EIJAAZ is unsafe in my view. JENNY SOBA comes out badly and no female came from 13f or more aged 4 or more. I had planned to tip a non runner in Hypnotic Gaze so left now with 6 unpalatable options. Given that I would expect EIJAAZ to have the strongest chance.

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CHEPSTOW 5.15

Lindley Catering Handicap (For Lady Amateur Riders)
(CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-70) 1m14y

5/2 Bidable, 5/1 Bere Davis, 6/1 Ermine Grey
10/1 Batchworth Blaise, 12/1 Alqaahir, 12/1 Carlton Scroop
12/1 Lordship, 12/1 Straight Face, 16/1 Croeso Ynol
16/1 Poca A Poca, 25/1 Just Jimmy, 25/1 Wrecking Crew
33/1 Hill Of Clare, 33/1 Michelle.

This is a Lady Amateur Riders race. There are 35 similar
races at this time of year and 66 races for all Amateurs as
well. I would happily oppose Poca A Poca - Michelle and
Hill Of Clare for obvious reasons. JUST JIMMY has been
off too long for a horse with limited backclass and I would
also oppose WRECKING CREW with a huge absence too.
LORDSHIP is out as no horse came from a 6f race without
at least a run in Group 2 class before. Horses down from a
11f race or more with 9 or more career starts were 0-57
so CARLTON SCROOP has to go. CROESO YNOL looks
unfit. I was not convinced with BIDABLE. I looked at the
record of exposed horses without a run within 2 weeks and
found that every winner had more backclass than him and
more runs that season. ALQAAHIR is also exposed without
a recent run and I couldnt find a horse aged 7 or more that
won overcoming that and as he is an 8 year old there was
a bit of doubt in my mind about him especially as he's 0-10
on Grass. BATCHWORTH BLAISE just falls short without
much backclass coming up in trip.

STRAIGHT FACE - Fine statistically but best at 7f ?
BERE DAVIS - Backclass gets him on the shortlist
ERMINE GREY - Comes out with a decent profile

SELECTION - ERMINE GREY

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