Wednesday October 13th

Daily Reccomendation

No Bet Today

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REVIEW OF LAST MESSAGE

My expectations were set low yesterday as it was a poor
day's racing and no hope of a bet. I Highlighted the main
horse I liked in Country House and he was beaten a Head
in a photo. I didn't watch the race but the Racing Post do
say he " he looked sure to win " yet didnt so I think I can
now confirm a small outbreak of Seconditus for us which
was suspected a few days ago. The last 3 messages include
3 second places as the main choice of bet much as only 1
of these was an official bet. I suppose if anyone backed all 3 then they would have been on the 6/1 winner before that so not at all concerned much as it is a bit annoying.

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS


The main dilemma today was how much time should I split
between the Lingfield card and the two National Hunt cards.
In the end I decided to prioritise on Lingfield. I have done 7 races there and concentrated most of the message there. The National Hunt racing gets a quick paragraph before the Flat.

Having recently been diagnosed with Seconditus perhaps it is not the best time to be taking on Lingfield when you can get beaten a length there are still finish tailed off. We will need a lot of luck there but so will everybody else as well as Lingfield demands that and treats us all in it's own cruel way. The good thing is that it's no easier to get second places there as it is to
get winners and as all my best angles are there may as well do out best and see if Lingfield is in a mood to be tamed today.

I do like my Lingfield work. You can only be hopeful rather
than confident here because of the track but some good work
has gone into the message and its made it interesting albeit a bit technical and ever reliant on luck round here. Its a message to follow through from start to finish but with low stakes and for interest only. There are plenty of savers and split staked bets which isnt ideal but you feel you have to have them here.


Todays Best Bet

LINGFIELD 5.15

MARCUS ANOTONIUS 4/1

I see him as my best bet today. I wouldnt put anyone off him each way or anyone saving on Carnac either as I see these two as the likely winners but I will suggest him win only.


Smaller Bets

Lingfield 4.40
RUBENSTAR - Small win bet at 7/1


Lingfield 3.35
Split Stake Bet

KISS A PRINCE 12/1
TAP DANCE WAY 10/1
Small Stakes


I may have staked MARCUS ANTONIOUS as a Full Bet
with a slightly better price and possibly gone each way
doing that. The fact its Lingfield and I have seconditus
and I also like Carnac in the race leaves me feeling that
I should leave him as a Mention but it was a close call. I
wont mind if he wins anyway and Lingfield shouldnt be
taken for granted in any way so lets keep him a smaller bet.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G



N A T I O N A L H U N T

I think it's best that I stay on the Flat today as not much
stands out at Uttoxeter or Wetherby and I didnt feel there
was anything good enough to get excited about. Just a few
comments here but keeping it short as I prefer Lingfield.

Uttoxeter 2.40

I would not oppose Nicene Creed

Uttoxeter 3.10

Open Handicap Chase. I am neutral about some of these
including Portrait Royale. I'd oppose Lots Of Fun with 3
career starts. I wasnt convinced Ukrainian Star was good
enough today from a struggling stable. HEEZAGREY has
an obvious each way look to him and should go well but I
just prefer BYNACK MHOR as a win bet given a choice.

Uttoxeter 3.45

The market speaks much stronger for ACKERTAC than
LIKE A HURRICANE but statistically there is nothing in
it with both horses having a similar strength profile. The
bet for me would have to be split stake. Half stakes to win
on ACKERTAC and Half on LIKE A HURRICANE to place.

Uttoxeter 4.20

I thought Quam Celerrime had a very complicated profile
but I made the decision I'd rather oppose him than bet him.
I tried to make a case for Simone Martini. I'd still rather be betting him each way than the favourite but I couldnt make a good enough case. Salpierre is not out of this statistically so I felt it was a bit too complicated. I'll risk Salpierre much as the market will probably be clearer than I can about him.

Wetherby 4.30

I thought Bavard Court would probably win but I dont know
enough about him and he may be an each way double horse.

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LINGFIELD 2.00

European Breeders´ Fund Somac Services
Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5) (2yo) 7f

100/30 Yojimbo, 4/1 L´hermitage, 5/1 Jalors, 5/1 Muntasib
6/1 Apollo D´negro, 10/1 Obsession, 12/1 Medaille D´or
16/1 Palm Pilot, Golden Compass, 25/1 Honkers Bonkers,
66/1 Jessica Ashton, 100/1 Bella Nemica.

This is a 7f maiden for 2 year olds and there isnt nearly
enough evidence to take a strong view in this race. I had
a look at 224 similar races in October. I think any horse
that has Blinkers or a Visor on it's debut is unsafe. I cant find a winner with headgear unless he had at least 5 races and that's why I'd avoid OBSESSION who has a visor first time on a racecourse. MEDAILLE D´OR has been nibbled
in the market but she is not for me as a first time out filly from the widest draw. I can live with female debutants in these races. I can live with Stall 14 as well but having both those things combined leaves me cold. Horses in all races at Lingfield this year from Stall 14 were 1-42 which looks a harder place to win from than anywhere else. I couldnt find a winner like PALM PILOT as all fillied that won a similar race coming down in trip had 3 or more runs and she has just two. Any horse beaten 64 lengths just 9 days ago like JALORS looks vulnerable as well. I just felt there was too much risk with him. APOLLO D´NEGRO has a pair of blinkers on. Considering his main dangers have all come from Grade 1 tracks I'd worry about whether he has the class for this. He was beaten easily last time by only a modest Nursery type and I don't see him having as much ability as one or two. I think there are 3 runners that just stand out as having the best chances in this race.

L´HERMITAGE - MUNTASIB - YOJIMBO

One issue is can L´HERMITAGE improve enough from
his debut and from that stable he should but can K Fallon
nurser him home from a wide draw. I think MUNTASIB
and YOJIMBO are fine statistically but would have been
better with 1 career start rather than two. Past winners
of this race had 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 previous career starts.
Thats a good sign for L´HERMITAGE but overall when
you can't have enough evidence to be sure I'd feel better
with a cover bet and a second choice so I suggest this -

L´HERMITAGE Win Bet 7/2

YOJIMBO Place Bet 4/5

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LINGFIELD 2.30

European Breeders´ Fund Premier Showfreight
Novice Stakes (CLASS 4) (2yo) 1m

7/4 Enabling, 11/4 Cloud Rock, 11/4 Garde Cotiere
11/2 Owain, 11/1 Sawahill, 100/1 Trojan Touch.

This is a 2yo Novice race over a Mile. There are only 36
of these races at this time of year so not much to go with
so I'd see this race as trappy. None of the 36 winners came
from a 6f race so OWAIN and TROJAN TOUCH look too
risky. None of the 36 winners were unraced fillies either so I am against SAWAHILL as well. Horses beaten 10 lengths
or more last time had a 1-53 record and those with 1 or 2
career starts were 0-33 so GARDE COTIERE also has to
go as well. I'd expect either ENABLING or CLOUD ROCK
to win this race. Both came from the same race at Newbury
a long established decent Conditions race. ENABLING came
3rd just ahead of CLOUD ROCK in 4th. You could take the
view that CLOUD ROCK was much stronger fancied in the
betting that day and didnt have the experience ENABLING
had and could show more improvement of the pair and that
is not an unreasonable assumption. CLOUD ROCK for me.

SELECTION - CLOUD ROCK

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LINGFIELD 3.00

Carol Sheppard´s Birthday Crew Supporting H.A.M.
Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-75) 1m

9/2 Plutocraft, 5/1 Copper Penny, 11/2 Abhar, 6/1 Seasonal Cross 15/2 Prince Of Thebes, 17/2 Conry, 10/1 Expensive Problem 10/1 Silent Oasis, 12/1 Cativo Cavallino, 18/1 Basra 20/1 Bennelong, 20/1 Green Earth.

This is a 0-75 Handicap over a Mile. There are 20 of
these Lingfield Handicaps in October and 179 similar
races on Sand and Turf as well. I looked at every mile
handicap at Lingield in 2010 with 8 or more runners.
There are 27 of these races in 2007 and its interesting
that horses drawn in stalls 1 and 2 had a 0-49 record.
I think Stalls 1-2 are the worst draws. PLUTOCRAFT
is Drawn 2 and I felt he had a weak profile coming via
a 3yo handicap with an absence and no backclass. I'm
also against BASRA in Stall 1 as well and aside from a
poor draw he looks underraced for a 7yo with a large
absence and few runs this year. Horses coming from a
6f race struggled and none managed this when aged 6
or more so CATIVO CAVALLINO is opposed as well.
BENNELONG has been absent far too long for a 4yo.
I do not like SILENT OASIS as a filly from a maiden.
SEASONAL CROSS has a chance but all similar mares
like her needed more runs this season than she has had
and I wasn't impressed with her profile. She is also now
missing the break more and more and I can see her at
the back of the field have needing plenty of luck when
she starts her late run. CONRY only has 3 runs during
2010 and thats not enough for a 4yo stepping up from
a 7f race and I don't like his chance. I couldnt find any
winner like EXPENSIVE PROBLEM. Horses aged 3 in
179 races like GREEN EARTH that had over 13 career
starts struggled without far more backclass than he has
and lacking a recent run as well and I dont think he did
enough last time out. ABHAR is a 3 year old who also
has over 13 runs and no form beyond a Class 4 race so
with horses like that having a 2-87 record I'd be also a
little sceptical about him especially as he was beaten a
bit further than either of the winners. With a run thats
quite recent he is borderline shortlistable but no more.

SHORTLIST

COPPER PENNY has a reasonable profile and looks
one to consider much as most 3yo fillies that managed
to win these races tended to come from 3yo handicaps
and she doesnt. PRINCE OF THEBES has a chance but
as a 9yo is always vulnerable to younger horses. I think
I should stay with the younger horse.

Selection - COPPER PENNY each way 11/2

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LINGFIELD 3.35

Carol Sheppard´s Birthday Crew Supporting H.A.M.
Handicap (Div II) (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-75) 1m

4/1 Dancing Queen, 5/1 Tap Dance Way, 11/2 Recalcitrant
13/2 Three Ducks, 7/1 Walcot Square, 8/1 The Happy Hammer
9/1 Kiss A Prince, 11/1 Final Verse, 16/1 Trafalgar Square
18/1 Sir Frank Wappat, 20/1 Maswerte, 25/1 Kilburn.

This is Division 2 of the Mile Handicap run at 3pm so
the same stats apply and we have 20 Lingfield races to
go on and 179 similar races elsewhere. I'm opposing all
horses from 6f so THE HAPPY HAMMER is rejected.
Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time struggled and when
coming from a Mile or shorter were worse and the older
horses TRAFALGAR SQUARE and KILBURN both had
poor profiles failing that stat. MASWERTE is underraced
this year. SIR FRANK WAPPAT doesnt appeal as a 3yo
who refuses to race last time. DANCING QUEEN doesnt
appeal as a 3yo filly with 2 runs this season. If you look
at 3yo fillies that came from Handicaps like her you find
a 10-215 record. None of these had 1-2-3 runs this year
and she only has two runs. Throw in the fact she is both
a maiden and facing a testing 35 day break I couldnt find
a winenr like DANCING QUEEN. This stat interests me.

* October has seen 1322 handicaps
* Thats 1322 Handicaps at ANY distance in Class 4-5-6
* I looked at 3yo Fillies that had 1-2 runs that season
* The record in 1322 races was 4 winners from 135 runners
* Those with 3 or more career starts were 0-114
* Those coming from any Handicap were 0-65
* DANCING QUEEN fails both those angles


FINAL VERSE is underraced this season. Fillies aged 4
that had under 5 runs that year like THREE DUCKS are
just 1-38 and that winner had less weight and was not a
similar type and I didnt see enough I liked about her so
feel she'd have been better with more races. Horses that
came from 3yo handicaps over 7f or shorter dissapointed
and had a 1-64 record something WALCOT SQUARE is
attempting to overcome and that sole winner had a more
recent race than him and finished closer in it. Throw in
the fact he's badly drawn in stall 2 and I would avoid him.
Horses aged 7 or more like RECALCITRANT won only
6 races and they all had at least 3 more runs that year so
I see him as vulnerable expecially having to defy a career
high mark 30 days after winning.

SHORTLIST

TAP DANCE WAY is a 3yo filly absent 59 days. I had a
look at all 3yo fillies absent over a month and found they
had a 3-76 record. On the Plus side all 3 winners had just
5 or 6 career starts like her and came from handicaps as
she does and they also had 4-5-6 runs that season. That
turned a 3-76 record into a 3-10 record and that makes
TAP DANCE WAY quite interesting. My only dilemma
is none of 3 very similar fillies won last time out. They
all ran well without winning and TAP DANCE WAY did
win her race so thats just one concern I have but overall
she has more for her than against her despite her drift.

KISS A PRINCE has a good chance but all similar 4 year
olds like him ran better than he did last time and I wasnt
sure he achieved enough then. That said it was on softer
ground he detested at Salisbury and its clear he didnt like
it and watching him on video he could easily have finished
much closer with stronger handling. All his wins are in this sort of field and on this track. I dont see a better option.

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

TAP DANCE WAY 10/1

KISS A PRINCE 12/1

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LINGFIELD 4.05

L & M Body Repairs Legendary Classified
Claiming Stakes (Div I) (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-70) 7f

9/2 I Confess, 5/1 Perfect Friend, 6/1 Shark Man
6/1 Super Frank, 8/1 Faited To Pretend, 8/1 Marosh
10/1 Fol Liam, 10/1 King´s Sabre, 10/1 Lopinot
14/1 Know No Fear, 25/1 Sir Ike, 33/1 Public Image.

There are 56 Claiming races ovber 7f in October and they
include the 12 renewals of this race. These races show that
both PUBLIC IMAGE and LOPINOT have been absent too
long. None had 1 run this year like SIR IKE. Horses coming
from 6f races underperformed. None aged 6 or more won a
similar race so SUPER FRANK has to go. Exposed horses
from 6f races without a recent race like KNOW NO FEAR
were also poor and he's rejected. Fillies aged 3 coming from a 6f race were 1-34 and that 1 winner had more experience and a more recent run than FAITED TO PRETEND has so I dont want her. Interesting as well that 3 year olds like her had a poor 1-54 record in the 12 Lingfield renewals. I dont fancy the other 3yo SHARK MAN hammered over hurdles last time and underraced this season. KING´S SABRE has a shaky profile. He did run quite well last time over a Mile so I thought twice about him but he was claimed that day and downgraded stables so overall I would have to say no. The record in 56 races of horses coming from 3yo handicaps is 0-84 and thats a poor record for MAROSH to overcome. I felt PERFECT FRIEND came out badly as a Filly aged 4 and these types were 2-87 and all 45 from handicaps lost.

SHORTLIST

I CONFESS really wanted to have run much better last time
and he is not strong statistically beaten so far but I feel that he might have gone off too fast last time and had an excuse so he gets a bit of slack because of that. He didnt have blinkers last time and he is 0-24 without them so he should run better today. FOL LIAM is also a bit unsafe as well and he only just made it on the shortlist. My gut feeling is he will find 1 or 2 too good for him but I like him as a place bet in this race

SELECTION

Win Bet I CONFESS 4/1

Place Bet FOL LIAM 5/2 +

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LINGFIELD 4.40

L & M Body Repairs Legendary Classified
Claiming Stakes (Div II) (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-70) 7f

3/1 The Winged Assasin, 5/1 Hierarch, 5/1 Lady Kent
7/1 Another Magic Man, 7/1 Rubenstar, 7/1 Shaded Edge
10/1 Dvinsky, 10/1 Wise Up, 25/1 Fernando Torres
50/1 Norcroft.

This is Division 2 of the 7f Claimer run at 4.05pm and
we have 56 similar races at this time of year and 12 of
these were Lingfield races. I said earlier that 3 year olds
had a 1-54 record in the 12 Lingfield races. I also wrote
horses from 3yo handicaps had a 0-84 record in all these
7f Claimers in October so HIERARCH is not in the best
of places statistically. WISE UP also fails that statistic.
I see THE WINGED ASSASIN and NORCROFT as both
underraced this season. Horses aged 6 or more that came
from 6f races were 0-32 so DVINSKY as a 9 year old has
to go coming up in trip. FERNANDO TORRES also has
to come from 6f and he didnt do enough last time. I can
not match SHADED EDGE to a winner and didn't think
he did enough last time out. ANOTHER MAGIC MAN is
a 3 year old and comes down from 8f. I looked at 3yo's
doing that and found those without Group Class form had
a 0-62 record so ANOTHER MAGIC MAN is rejected.

SHORTLIST

LADY KENT is an exposed 4yo filly and similar to just
1 winner who didnt come from a Claimer. I wasnt blown
away with her. I'm selecting RUBENSTAR with a better
profile than it looks and I think he did enough last time
and with a good record on Polytrack I like him best.

SELECTION - RUBENSTAR

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LINGFIELD 5.15

Sweetwoods Golf Club Handicap (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-65) 2m

7/2 Marcus Antonius, 9/2 Dansilver, 5/1 Carnac
5/1 Wester Ross, 7/1 King´s Realm, 7/1 Slew Charm
10/1 Mymateeric, 20/1 Mixing, 20/1 Shannon Falls
20/1 Whitley Bay, 66/1 Belvidera, 66/1 Noddies Way.

This is a low grade 2m Handicap for 0-58 rated horses and
we only have 40 similar races at this time of year. I did not want DANSILVER exposed with 2 runs this season and the
3 year old KING´S REALM is also weak with just the 1 run
this season. Other very weak profiles are SHANNON FALLS
and NODDIES WAY. I dont like SLEW CHARM aged 8 with
a long absence. BELVIDERA comes up too far in distance so
looks weal. WHITLEY BAY and MIXING were beaten much
too far last time for horses their respective ages. There must be a doubt WESTER ROSS is short of fitness and I didnt like his profile.

MYMATEERIC - Decent Profile
CARNAC - Decent profile
MARCUS ANTONIUS - Easy to consider as a winning 3yo

SELECTION

MARCUS ANTONIUS 4/1

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