Monday October 25th

Daily Recommendation

No Bet Today


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REVIEW OF LAST MESSAGE

I thought it was a poor Saturday message. That didn't surprise me as a lot of the bottom of the message choices left me cold and I didnt feel very confident about much. I did about the bet KILTIMONEY. Luckily we were on each way as he came 3rd. That was more than the message deserved really. He just closed very late to take 3rd place having looked likely to finish out of the frame so pleased he scraped back most of the stake and that was a bonus and one we didnt really deserve. Overall it was a dud.

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS


I have had a look at 9 races today at all 3 tracks and as ever for a Monday the message doesnt reach the highest standard as I start Mondays messages later than normal and that often shows without anything lifting it up to great literary heights. I wouldnt follow the message through to the bitter end as not all my selections are as safe as I'd like them to be. I would be describing the analysis today as nothing more than average.

Game Plan today is to start the week with a chance of a good win but keeping the bet as safe as possible and 1 bet stands out.

KEMPTON 2.40 - ZAIN SHAMARDAL 5/2

KEMPTON 5.10 - JOVIAL 6/4

Each Way Double

I havent previewed the 2.40pm race later on but there wasnt
much I could say anyway. ZAIN SHAMARDAL is pitching
for favourtism with an unraced horse so it will depend most
on how good his rival is. This is a weak race though and it
will be dissapointing if he cant go close. Some others might be being handicapped in the race. I like the fact he was given his debut in a Novice race and ran with promise. He had been given Group 1 entries at that time. He started favourite last time trying to win his maiden but could only managed 3rd as the soft ground beat him. The horse just ahead of him that day came out and won a Newbury maiden 9 lengths the other day and with experience I think he has every chance in this race and he should be safe each way. I would place him with JOVIAL who comes out well statistically and should take the last race on the card. I think thats my best chance of getting a profit from the message if I am keeping as safe as I'd like. Its not a classic message buy Mondays never are anyway.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


LEICESTER 2.00

11/2 Cathcart Castle, 11/2 Duquesa, 13/2 Shutterbug
8/1 Mega Mount, Silbury, Focail Maith, Las Verglas Star
10/1 Phoenix Flame, 10/1 Silver Tigress, 12/1 Hortensis
12/1 Icelady, 16/1 Bathwick Scanno, 25/1 Granny Anne
25/1 Lady Excellentia, Playful Girl, 40/1 Iwantobreakfree.

This Nursery is clearly too difficult so I wont make any big attempt to solve it. I can tell you there are 13 renewals of this race. I can tell you horses from Maiden races have not done well. They are 3-79 and fillies from maidens are 0-33 and those with 3 career starts were 0-45. I'd be opposing a horse like that from a maiden and that takes out Hortensis Iwantobreakfree - Icelady - Silver Tigress - Playful Girl and Shutterbug. I would take out fillies beaten by over 10 lengths last time so Lady Excellentia -Granny Anne- Phoenix Flame are out. I'd ignore Bathwick Scanno from a seller. Duquesa is
not for me beaten too far on Saturday night. All horses that came from 6f races had 4-5 career starts in this race. I felt LAS VERGLAS STAR was vulnerable failing that and with a hard weight to overcome. You look at every Nursery at 7f in October and Males from 6f Nurseries with 6 + runs have a 1-47 record and that was a lightweight and I think he has too many things wrong with his profile. MEGA MOUNT is only average statistically and lacks a bit of backclass and as the ground could also test him I dont see a case to put him on the shortlist. That list would be down to these 3 horses

FOCAIL MAITH - Shortlistable
CATHCART CASTLE - Respected but plenty of positives
SILBURY - Very similar to last years winner and strong

SELECTION

SILBURY Win Bet
Cathcart Castle Saver

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SOUTHWELL 2.20

Bramley Apple Celebration Median Auction
Maiden Stakes (CLASS 6) (2yo) 1m

13/8 Top Care, 7/4 Suddenly Susan, 4/1 Little Miss Take
12/1 Munro´s Dragon, 20/1 Warrant, 25/1 X Rated
33/1 Devon Delight, 33/1 Pinotage, 33/1 Voovoo.

This is a 2yo Maiden over a Mile. October has 265 of these
maiden races. TOP CARE comes from a Nursery Handicap
over 6f. Horses from Nurseries had a weak 4-77 record and
none of these had 7 or more starts as he does. None of them
came from a 6f race wither as he does. I dont think he has a good profile. He also has to prove he can act at Southwell as well. He will be his Sires first runner at this track. I think he's best opposed. The 265 races show just 7 winners coming from a 6f race. Those with 4 or more career starts were only 0-28 and TOP CARE has 7 runs. I am going to oppose him because of it. I don't like MUNRO´S DRAGON from a selling nursery and a horse that would've 27lbs less weight if it was a handicap. Neither WARRANT or X RATED did enough last time. Fillies from Nurseries like LITTLE MISS TAKE were 0-22 and she's also exposed and would be better off in a handicap. I think its
probably best to leave this to SUDDENLY SUSAN who has a
recent run and has shown enough to go close in this race. I'd see SUDDENLY SUSAN as the best bet in the race.

Selection - SUDDENLY SUSAN

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LEICESTER 2.30

E B F Fosse Way Maiden Stakes (CLASS 4) (2yo) 5f218y

13/8 Jinky, 2/1 Cape Rambler, 100/30 Lion Court
15/2 Secret Lake, 16/1 Flynn´s Boy.

This is a very tricky 6f maiden for juveniles. I did not think my statistics could sort this out. JINKY is getting exposed a bit but does has decent form and a recent run. I think it will be between the 3 main runners. My gut feeling is that it may be the ground that sorts them out. I think their ability or not to handle heavy ground is the key factor. LION COURT has run well on soft but is from a Sire who hasnt bred a winner on soft yet and he finished behind a 69 rated horse which suggests to me he has to improve to match JINKY although there will be natural progression. I prefer CAPE RAMBLER whose form is tied up with Jinky and with 3 runs he could improve past him.

Selection - CAPE RAMBLER

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SOUTHWELL 3.20

Betdaq On 0870 178 1221 Handicap
(CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-70) 1m

6/1 Guga, 7/1 Aussie Blue, 8/1 Elusive Warrior, 8/1 Postman
9/1 Full Victory, 10/1 My One Weakness, 10/1 Royal Holiday
12/1 Hilbre Court, 14/1 Stef And Stelio, 16/1 Know No Fear
16/1 Rascal In The Mix, 20/1 Betteras Bertie, 25/1 Bennelong 33/1 Byron Bay.

This is a Mile Handicap for 0-70 rated horses and we have
179 similar races in October. ELUSIVE WARRIOR is past
over. He is exposed and has just won a 7f handicap. Horses
aged 6 or more than came from 7f handicaps were 4-157 in
these 179 races. Most of these had more backclass than he
does. None of them won or placed last time out (0-29) and
I think he has a poor profile. I oppose KNOW NO FEAR as
he comes from a 7f Claimer. STEF AND STELIO has to go
from a 3yo seller over 7f. Horses aged 3 that came from 7f
races without Group Class form were 9-215. Those that lost
by more than 6 lengths last time were 1-128 and that tells
me MY ONE WEAKNESS and ROYAL HOLIDAY havent
done enough last time. BYRON BAY has been absent too
long for an 8 year old. BETTERAS BERTIE has too much
to do for an older horse coming off a poor last run and with an absence as well. I think the Draw is important here these days. I looked at all Southwell Mile Handicaps with at least 10 runners. The Last 12 winners and 22 of the last 24 races all went to horses drawn 5 or more and the very low drawn horses look disadvantaged. BENNELONG does not appeal from Stall 1 after a poor last run. Thats my main objection to GUGA who wasnt that attractive statistically anyway so I am opposing him. I looked at horses aged 6 or more that came from 8f handicaps. There were winners but they had all ran in better class than AUSSIE BLUE who lacks enough backclass. FULL VICTORY fails the same angles as horses aged 7 or more had all ran in at least Class 2 grade before so lacking a recent run as well and limited Southwell form I see him as unsafe. HILBRE COURT didnt do enough in a much weaker race last time. There are only 2 horses that I could match closely to more than 1 winner and as both of these are unexposed 4 year olds I will shortlist them both and see both of these as having the best profiles in this race.

POSTMAN - Every chance back in distance

RASCAL IN THE MIX - Decent profile and respected

SELECTION

POSTMAN Win Bet 4/1 +

RASCAL IN THE MIX Place Bet 4/1 +

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LEICESTER 3.30

Leicester Racecourse Conference Centre
Handicap (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-90) 1m60y

4/1 Medicinal Compound, 13/2 Heddwyn, 7/1 Nazreef
8/1 Extraterrestrial, 8/1 Green Destiny, 10/1 Agony And Ecstasy 12/1 Fastnet Storm, 12/1 Gold Rules, 12/1 One Scoop Or Two 14/1 Jordaura, 14/1 Kavachi, 20/1 Guilded Warrior, 20/1 Kaolak 20/1 Zebrano.

This is a Mile handicap for horses rated 0-87 and one of the biggest factors will be how the horses with 2 career races get on as HEDDWYN and GREEN DESTINY are clearly strong runners from big stables. I want to oppose both. I think you want a high draw and HEDDWYN lacks that. I also think its a problem for him coming down in trip after just 2 starts so with no similar winners I'd oppose him. We can track horses like GREEN DESTINY winning 8f maidens with 2 runs. The record of these horses was 1-4 and all 4 horses were fancied and they finished W 3 0 3. The only winner ran within two weeks and was a filly. I looked at every handicap in October in Class 2-3-4 at every distance. I just wanted Male horses who came from maidens with just 2 runs. There was a 1-16 record but again that winner ran within two weeks and those like GREEN DESTINY absent over a Month were 0-7 and with 116 days absence I'd oppose him as well. KAVACHI is out with the worst draw. AGONY AND ECSTASY looks too underraced this year for a filly. ONE SCOOP OR TWO has been running well. I liked him last time out and he ran well in 3rd and it wouldnt surprise me if he popped up and took this race but he is in a better class race and I dont like the fact he moves up from Class 5 to Class 3 and feel he might be vulnerable. MEDICINAL COMPOUND won easily last time in a 3yo handicap. This is harder and he takes on the older horses. It worries me he has 4 runs this season. I had a look at all horses like him with 1-2-3-4-5 runs this year and found a 1-47 record with that horse far less exposed. I dont think JORDAURA did enough last time out and I dont like GUILDED WARRIOR's profile. FASTNET STORM's not like any winner of a similar race and lacking a recent run is not for me. Overall I prefer EXTRATERRESTRIAL as a well handicapped mudlover who ran much better than it looked last time out and has many unproven rivals.

Selection - EXTRATERRESTRIAL

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LEICESTER 4.00

Gumley Claiming Stakes (CLASS 5) (3-4yo) 7f9y

4/1 Dr Wintringham, William Morgan, 9/2 Just Five
13/2 Dark Moment, 10/1 Chez Vrony, 12/1 Castle Myth
14/1 Magenta Strait, 20/1 Cerito, 25/1 Musical Delight
66/1 Rosie´s Magic.

This is a 7f Claiming race but it can't be treated as a run of the mill Claimer as its open to only 3 and 4 year olds. This race has 5 renewals but they dont show any conformity as all 5 winners came from different types of races. I wouldn't see the angles as strong here. I dont like JUST FIVE as the horse has few positives and many question marks. I dislike his absence and his draw and the distance he runs at. He is not for me. CHEZ VRONY is too inexperienced. October has 56 Claiming races for all aged horses. Horses coming from 3yo handicaps are 0-84 in these races which worries me about WILLIAM MORGANand ROSIE´S MAGIC too. I am reluctant to use statistics for all aged claimers as this is restricted to just 3-4 year olds. That said DR WINTRINGHAM looks a bit better class than most of these and I think She has the best chance. I will go with DR WINTRINGHAM

Selection - DR WINTRINGHAM

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SOUTHWELL 4.20

Betdaq The Betting Exchange Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 1m4f

5/2 Powerful Melody, 4/1 Fine Sight, 5/1 Becausewecan
6/1 Lucky Punt, 6/1 Taikoo, 7/1 Bivouac.

This is a 12f Handicap for 0-84 rated horses. There are 136
similar races at this time of year. It worries me that horses like POWERFUL MELODY and TAIKOO drop down from
longer distances with just 2 runs this season. The record of all horses from 14f or further with 1-2-3 runs this season is 0-40 and this pair only have 2 runs this year. I see both of these as unsafe. LUCKY PUNT doesnt come out well as an older horse from a Claimer. All horses coming down from a 14f race were younger than BIVOUAC. I couldnt find a 4yo like BECAUSEWECAN beaten so badly last time. This looks a messy race and potentially a tactical one as well. It may be worth taking a chance on FINE SIGHT as a lightly raced 3yo stepping up in distance. Not a strong choice but all his rivals have holes in their profile and at a decent price in a small 6 runner race he could easily be the sensible choice.

Selection - FINE SIGHT
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LEICESTER 4.30

Hoby Median Auction Maiden Fillies´ Stakes
(CLASS 6) (2yo) 5f218y

11/4 Miss Exhibitionist, 7/2 Follow My Dream, Show Rainbow
5/1 Swimsuit, 8/1 Bless You, 12/1 Zeavola, Caramella Brownie 16/1 Zartina, 25/1 Lady Deanie, 25/1 Suga Shot
28/1 Cool Water Oasis, 50/1 Romantic Girl, 66/1 The Datai.

This is a 2yo Maiden over 6f for fillies. I think I would stay away from unraced horses on this sort of Ground. There are 12 renewals of this race and unraced horses are only 1-60 and with several that have experience I'd be inclined to oppose an unraced horse so BLESS YOU - SWIMSUIT -ZEAVOLA dont appeal much. Horses like FOLLOW MY DREAM who come from 7f Maidens with 1 career run have a 1-39 record in the 67 similar races at this time of year which isnt impressive and none won this race. CARAMELLA BROWNIE started 66/1 last time which isnt a great sign. Horses starting that price on their last start have a 0-58 record in these races. The stronger runners are MISS EXHIBITIONIST and SHOW RAINBOW with the most experience and given the draw and their form and profiles I'd just shade it to MISS EXHIBITIONIST.

Selection - MISS EXHIBITIONIST

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KEMPTON 5.10

Bet Breeders´ Cup - Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 6) (3yo 0-60) 1m4f

7/4 Jovial, 11/2 Belle Boleyn, 15/2 Captain Cool, 8/1 Wasara 10/1 Empress Leizu, 10/1 Miss Whippy, 14/1 Belle Zorro 14/1 Lalika, 14/1 Motirani, 16/1 Jewellery, 20/1 Eurasian 25/1 Charpoy Cobra, 33/1 Pictures, 66/1 Bonamassa.

This is a Low grade 12f handicap and I think its hard to see past JOVIAL who won easily 6 days ago. In all similar races horses aged 3 like him won last time out had a 6-12 record in all similar races wth several placing and you wont go far wrong staying with horses like JOVIAL. There is not much opposition. I see weakness in BELLE ZORRO as a filly who has just 1 run this season. There are one or two dangers but few with as much improvement and none in such form and I wouldnt want to oppose JOVIAL in this race.

Selection - JOVIAL

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