No Account Bet

Very quiet start to the week. It's going to be
a week of only All Weather by the look of it
with the Freeze up. No immediate hurry to be
betting hard. Had to do a slightly later than
normal message today. Going to just let the
previews stand or fall on their own merit and
not go with a bet today. I think I've winners
in the 3.05pm and 3.35pm but dont much like
the odds on offer so a Blank start to the day.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


Not started the year brilliantly. New years day was
a No bet day. Yesterday there was no message but
Saturday we suffered a 3-0 reverse and got nothing
from the day and I apologise for the selections there.

Looking back at Saturday I think it we fought well in
a lot of areas and got bailed out more than once by a
saver here and there but the three I felt were my best
on the day dissapointed. Southwell clearly rode deep
and reports in the Racing Post that work was done on
the track to try to overcome the extremely cold winter
suggests it was churned up and over harrowed and it
just ran differently from a typical meeting there and in
sand terms the ground may have been the reason for
some strange results on the card. Whatever happened
it beat me on Saturday and we have to get that back.


Not sure we will be able to get it all back straight away
as the weather's killing the National Hunt at the moment
and I cant see many fixtures being on. Today we're also
short of options. Just one meeting at Wolverhampton
and it doesnt look good enough to be able to produce
a decent message so little choice but to have a quick
run through most of the races and see whats on offer.



WOLVERHAMPTON 1.55

9/4 Quick Release, 5/2 Bawaardi, 6/1 Forward Feline,
7/1 Justcallmehandsome, Ella Woodcock, 14/1 Nora Mae,
14/1 Pride Of Nation, 16/1 Aflaam.

This is a 0-75 handicap over a 8.5f. I can't see a good enough case for PRIDE OF NATION. I dont want the fillies up in trip like FORWARD FELINE or NORA MAE. I don't want to bet JUSTCALLMEHANDSOME if his trainer is right as I wouldnt want any horse that has "Missed work" through the weather. BAWAARDI looks to have suffered from winning a maiden and didnt get the best of handicap marks having done it and he has run creditably many times but nudging up the weights because of that. I feel his price is just fair. ELLA WOODCOCK could run a big race and looks overpriced .QUICK RELEASE has a strong chance. Possibly the strongest and AFLAAM whose been nibbled in the market could also go close. He is dropping in the weights and will soon reach a point where he's good enough to win from that rating and he has a turn of foot that could help as well. I think I would go with a split stake bet.

Selection

ELLA WOODCOCK Win Bet
AFLAAM - Place Bet

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WOLVERHAMPTON 2.30
7/4 Peninsular War, 9/2 Interchoice Star, Well Of Echoes, 6/1 Radiator Rooney, 16/1 Ride A White Swan, Desert Dust20/1 Gower.


There's 85 of these 6f sellers at this time of year. Fillies that have never won a race struggled and those with 13 + runs had a 0-39 record so WELL OF ECHOES wouldn't interest me. RIDE A WHITE SWAN looks weak. I dont like horses from 5f races like GOWER - DESERT DUST or RADIATOR ROONEY who is much harder to reject. I fancied RADIATOR ROONEY last time. He was hampered and I think will probably place in this race. All horses like INTERCHOICE STAR from 8f or more struggled. Those doing it with 13 + career starts were 0-38 and I'd see INTERCHOICE STAR as opposable failing that and with a heavy recent loss. Only 2 of the 86 winners came from maidens but both did this from 7f maidens like PENINSULAR WAR so I see him as shortlistable. If I was having a bet in the race I'd see RADIATOR ROONEY as worth a bet in a split stake bet that is also saving on the favourite.

SELECTION

Half Stakes on RADIATOR ROONEY 5/1
Half Stakes on PENINSULAR WAR 6/4

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WOLVERHAMPTON 3.05

6/4 High Constable, 5/2 Greyfriarschorista, 4/1 Beyond,
8/1 Charlie Smirke, 10/1 Silken Sands, 20/1 Giant Strides,
33/1 Big Eric, 50/1 Boxer Shorts, 66/1 Barony.

Maiden race and impossible to take a strong view with unraced horses. Statistically looking at all similar races I should expect a once raced horses with a recent run to beat 1 without a break so HIGH CONSTABLE 's a better bet than GREYFRIARSCHORISTA on paper. It isnt possible to know if the unraced BEYOND could beat him but I would be quite surprised and see him as a poor bet. I will go with HIGH CONSTABLE as the selection. He must have been doing something right to start heavy odds on first time out.

SELECTION

HIGH CONSTABLE

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WOLVERHAMPTON 3.35

9/4 Fujin Dancer, 3/1 Bee Stinger, 7/1 Blackstone Vegas, 15/2 Naxox, 10/1 Solarias Quest, 16/1 Royal Rainbow, 25/1 Mrs Slocombe.

Claiming race over 12f. I would not want either
MRS SLOCOMBE or ROYAL RAINBOW and a long absence for SOLARIAS QUEST aged 8 is too much to overcome. Horses with absences are vulnerable and BLACKSTONE VEGAS has a nasty one and I would prefer to look elsewhere. NAXOX looks unsafe. It wouldnt be a shock if BEE STINGER won this race but the strongest profile statistically has to be FUJIN DANCER.

In 127 similar races there were 5 horses aged 5
or more that had just finished 2nd or 3rd in a 10f
Claimer. Those 5 had a W W W 4 W record so
I will go with FUJIN DANCER as the best bet

SELECTION - FUJIN DANCER

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WOLVERHAMPTON 4.05

5/2 If I Were A Boy, 7/2 Brooklands Bay, 7/2 Danger Mulally, 5/1 Jazz Age, 6/1 Mary Helen, 10/1 Second Brook, 40/1 A P Ling.

There has been 139 of these 3yo handicaps over
9f-10f at this time of year. BROOKLANDS BAY
has to go with 1 run in a 2yo maiden. None of the
139 winners came from a maiden with one run and
those like him from "auction" maidens were 0-29.
I would oppose A P LING. I looked at fillies from
2yo maidens like IF I WERE A BOY and found a
poor 1-51 record which puts me off her. In fact
look at any horse from a 2yo maiden that had 4
or more starts and they were 0-69 so I would be
worried about her. JAZZ AGE has a chance and
I have found a couple of winners like him so I'd
respect him. MARY HELEN is a filly coming from
a claimer and although 2 fillies did that they both
had a more recent run and I think she is unsafe. I
have found winners like SECOND BROOK but it
would have been better if he has ran closer last
time. DANGER MULALLY achieved just that but
it was 26 days ago and to describe him as strong
statistically he would have needed a more recent
run. I dont see any that are ideal statistically. Tells
me its too open and I've no each way options with
7 runners. I'll guess MARY HELEN and also have
a saver but thats all it is - a guess.

SELECTION

MARY HELEN Win Bet 5/1
JAZZ AGE 8/1 Saver Ber

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WOLVERHAMPTON 4.35

5/2 Shake On It, 11/2 Dark Ranger, 11/2 Mackintosh,
13/2 Inside Story, Mighty Mover, 8/1 Spinning Ridge,
10/1 Alfredtheordinary, 10/1 National Monument,
16/1 Kheskianto, 20/1 Turn To Dreams, 50/1 Valentine Bay.

0-60 Handicap over an extended mile. There's been
210 similar races at this time of year. I think I would
look to oppose SHAKE ON IT each way. I looked
at all exposed horses like him that won handicaps
last time over around a Mile. There were 13 winners
but those without a run in 2 weeks were 0-13 and I
would have wanted a more recent run for a horse
who isnt that consistent anyway. The choice of an
alternative isnt easy. NATIONAL MONUMENT is
out with an absence. DARK RANGER has a weak
profile from a 3yo handicap. I wouldnt want to bet
a horse like ALFREDTHEORDINARY with 1 run
since April. KHESKIANTO has a weak profile as
a filly up in trip. Exposed 4yo fillies had a bad 1-50
record so TURN TO DREAMS doesnt stand out.
Exposed horses absent over a month had a poor
6-219 record and those aged 8 or more were 0-49
so MIGHTY MOVER doesnt appeal. I like Three.

SPINNING RIDGE - Good Profile
INSIDE STORY - Strong chance
MACKINTOSH -Strong chance

SELECTION


I'll go with MACKINTOSH and save on Inside Story.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 5.35

There has been 236 of these 8f handicaps at this time
of year. I want to oppose COLONEL SHERMAN who
doesnt look right. JORD has to go as a mare from a 6f
race. I think THE GRAIG needs another run before he
is able to win. PACIFIC BAY wouldnt be my first choice
as a filly last seen in selling hurdles. OBE BRAVE does
not appeal up in trip and when hammered every time he
has raced at a Mile or more.

CHIA - I give her a chance
KIRSTYS LAD - No reason why he cant win
TALLEST PEAK - Hard to read but a good profile
JOIN UP - Solid runner

Selection - Just prefered TALLEST PEAK

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