No Selection Today

After three messages so far this season we are in a
profitable position and tempted not to risk that as
it looks very competetive today. We started back
with a superb opening message. The next one was
average and just about good enough to get a draw.
Yesterdays was miserable so we have regressed so
far from 3 messages but crucially still in profit at
this stage so I am declaring today when still ahead.

Sunday there will be a message but it will Not have
any selection. It will be sent early and I might just
have a look at one of the Cheltenham Handicaps
which I will look at this afternoon. There will be
one but it won't be day for any selections though.


T o d a y ' s O p t i o n s


Cheltenham - Interest bets through the card

Lingfield 1.05 - CHEHERAZAD 9/4 +

Lingfield 3.55 - MISS BOUNTY 10/1 (Nap)

Wolverhampton 6.20 - HAADEETH 9/2



Lingfield 1.05

I feel CHEHERAZAD ought to win this maiden
if She repeats either of her last two runs. She is
facing two fancied Stan Moore horses and a few
others. I think She looks ideal for the each way
double. If he gets to around 5/2 I would happily
bet her in an each way single. Short of that she
looks worth a bet. Quite possibly she will come
very late and be a fast finishing second on this
Spitefull track but I fancy her to win this race.


Lingfield 3.55

Low grade handicap. MISS BOUNTY is not a
statistical pick. I'm not convinced any of the
runners are statistical choices. I like her odds.
All year I have been banging on about her sire
not getting winners over 12f and more and It
interests me she drops in trip now to what is
her best distance as I explain below. She also
has good excuses for her last two runs and it
is likely she was not fit. She is the forgotten
horse in this race and 10/1 seems a big price.
I am going to leave her as a Mention for the
following reason. She does not have the usual
headgear on. She hasn't yet won without any
headgear yet. She won last March when it was
applied after several runs without any and I
don't know how significant that might be. It
is a Gap in my Knowledge or at least I don't
feel I can overlook it with confidence. That
stops me betting her hard. I might well have
a saver on Beggers Belief but I do prefer the
mare MISS BOUNTY at the price and have
plans to bet her. Happy to ignore the issues
with headgear for my bet but not happy to
take the chance for any stronger selection.


Wolverhampton 6.20

In the interests of Full Disclosure I haven't done
the 6.20 pm at Wolverhampton in any detail as
I didn't get the time I wanted. Therefore I have
to say my opinion here is Incomplete and I am
suggesting HAADEETH with that in mind. It is
also why he wont be upgraded to a selection.





M e s s a g e T h o u g h t s

Paddy Power Gold Cup day. Full preview at the end
of the message. I have done 5 races at Cheltenham
and 6 races at Lingfield. The Paddy Power and the
other Cheltenham and Lingfield races have taken a
lot of time to finish. This has not left enough time
to do anything at Uttoxeter or Wetherby. I am not
keen on either track or the cards they offer today
so I think its best to stay with the main two cards
but there is just 1 short Wolverhampton preview.

Lingfield has a Spiteful card as it often does. I like
a couple of horses there. I'm hoping to be accurate
and competetive at Cheltenham as well but nothing
is being given away at either track. Overall we have
12 races covered. I need to fare significantly better
than I did on Friday and my best options are above.




F r i d a y ' s S u m m a r y

Not a good day at all. I am more annoyed with the
rest of the message than the losing selection as that
was unimpressive and costly. You have the odd days
where the message struggles all the way through but
it is quite rare and I detest it when it happens. I felt
BIRDOLINI ran quite well but in the end she didn't
have the class to win. Put it down as a poor day.

***********************************************
***********************************************

P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



L i n g f i e l d 12.00

4/1 Entrance, 5/1 Days In May, 5/1 Hursley Hope
7/1 Hurricane Hymnbook, 7/1 If What And Maybe
7/1 Lord Lansing, 10/1 Prince Of Thebes
10/1 Rodrigo De Freitas, 14/1 Whodunit, Inquisitress
25/1 Henry´s Hero, Gay Gallivanter, 66/1 Trust Me Boy.

This is a rather unappetising low grade 10f handicap
where luck will play an unhealthy part. I see several
lacking in fitness so I oppose Hurricane Hymnbook
and Whodunit. HURRICANE HYMNBOOK looks a
very well treated horse and may overcome his poor
profile but his last run was hardly encouraging and I
didn't like him from 8f. Lord Lansing lacks backclass
to overcome a 91 day absence. DAYS IN MAY has
a weak profile from a 7f maiden. HURSLEY HOPE
is also too inexperienced. I looked at every handicap
in November in Class 5-6-7 at every distance. I had
a look at all 3yo fillies in these races with just 3 runs
and found a 0-56 record and because of that I want
to oppose DAYS IN MAY and HURSLEY HOPE.
Henry's Hero has a nasty profile making no appeal.
I 'm avoiding RODRIGO DE FREITAS having the
worst draw and a weak profile. Trust Me Boy doesn't
offer anything. GAY GALLIVANTER was beaten a
lot further than any winning 3yo filly last time out.
No exposed mare like INQUISITRESS has won from
a 7f race and that hurts his profile. It is asking a lot
for a 3yo like IF WHAT AND MAYBE to bounce
back from a dreadful last run. ENTRANCE has got
one of the best chances. Statistically her problem's
the fact all 3yo fillies to win had under 13 runs and
she has 16. ENTRANCE would still be a positive in
a race where so few others have chances. None are
bomb proof. PRINCE OF THEBES is 10 and older
than any winners of a similar race and not keen on
betting any 10 year old without a recent race and as
he has not won over the distance before. That said
he has a better all round profile than several and its
quite likely he will go very close to winning this. In
the end I decided the best option was a split stake.

* ENTRANCE to win 7/1
* PRINCE OF THEBES to Place 3/1 +
* Not confident I am right here to be honest
* Happy with the Place bet not sure about the win bet
* I would be more interested in the match bet
* ENTRANCE looks good in a match bet v Days of May


L i n g f i e l d 1.05

5/2 Cheherazad, 4/1 Sketchy Evidence, 6/1 Yashila
7/1 Dusty Bluebells, 8/1 Abadejo, 10/1 Court Applause
14/1 Lucky Royale, Miakora, 25/1 Lady Royal Oak
33/1 Pill Boy, 50/1 My Best Man, Our Princess Ellie.

This is a maiden over 6f. There are only 33 similar
races at this time of year. None are won by unraced
horses (0-22) so I oppose SKETCHY EVIDENCE.
I think COURT APPLAUSE was beaten too far just
two days ago. I wouldnt make DUSTY BLUEBELLS
a negative but no winners came from 3yo sellers so
she is not matchable to any past winner and I think
she has the worst draw as well. Fillies aged 3 coming
from 5f races like LUCKY ROYALE all had at least
8 runs that season and as she has just one I'm going
to avoid her. YASHILA has a chance and enough to
shortlist. So has ABADEJO much as I'd prefer it if
he had a more recent run. CHEHERAZAD has good
claims and a reasonable profile and there are no big
negative points about her aside from temprement.
My choice given how few you can actually fancy is
CHEHERAZAD. I think she would win this on any
of her last 2 runs. I feel you can ignore a couple of
her runs on softer ground. She was unlucky last time
at Kempton and should have won in a tight photo
with the winner getting first run. She has a serious
chance for me. CHEHERAZAD Each Way at 5/2
would interest me greatly. I know many won't want
to do that. I may not even need to do that given
how bad a race it is CHEHERAZAD is as confident
a bet as I can give in a race like this.

Selection - CHEHERAZAD 5/2



C h e l t e n h a m 1.20

7/4 Ozeta, 5/2 Hinterland, 9/2 Hollow Tree
5/1 Secret Edge, 14/1 Bradbury, 16/1 Traitor
25/1 Jackies Solitaire, Saqil, 100/1 Thunder Sheik.

This is a Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle. Impossible to form
a firm view with some unraced French recruits. There
look 4 main runners. Statistically there is an argument
to oppose OZETA as a filly as so far all 27 fillies that
ran in this race lost. That may or may not be relevant
but its about the only stat going in the race. Advantage
to the Males here. The frame of the race and the lack
of evidence here would push me towards a split stake
bet if I had to have one. HINTERLAND does look to
be safer than OZETA on a superficial level. I'd also be
looking at a place bet on SECRET EDGE as well in a
split stake bet if I was betting. That bet gives a decent
chance of being competetive in a race to guess in. So
its HINTERLAND win and SECRET EDGE to place.




C h e l t e n h a m 1.55

7/2 Promising Anshan, 11/2 Chicago Grey
11/2 Galaxy Rock, 8/1 Fair Along, 10/1 Balthazar King
10/1 Reve De Sivola, 12/1 Hennessy, West End Rocker
14/1 Ballyfitz, 14/1 Carruthers, 14/1 Hey Big Spender.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 3m 3f.
* There has been 17 renewals of this race
* HEY BIG SPENDER has topweight first time out
* No seasonal debutant won aged 8 like him
* None won with his weight either and I oppose him
* CARRUTHERS is an other 8yo sesonal debutant
* He likes a small field but this isnt that big
* His 5 runs at Cheltenham suggest its not his best track
* He may want softer ground as well
* Nicely handicapped I dont want him first time out here
* Most seasonal debutant winners were aged 6 or 7
* WEST END ROCKER is 9 first time out
* I dont like him first time out
* He looks the type to win later in the season
* I sense this may be a prep race for something else
* The 2007 winner was 11 and a seasonal debutant
* He (Sir Rembrandt) came from the Scottish National
* BALLYFITZ has the same profile from the same race
* He is also well handicapped but not for me
* As he gets older he has tended to need his first run
* He was hammered in this race last year
* I would be surprised if he won this first time out
* HENNESSY has ran just once since 1999
* I think he will need another run today
* GALAXY ROCK is another exposed 7yo
* He is on a career high mark as well
* No past winner prepped over hurdles to win this
* What bothers me most is his backclass
* I looked at similar races here and elsewhere
* Every exposed horse ran backclass in Graded races
* GALAXY ROCK lacks that and he falls short
* FAIR ALONG doesnt have any major flaws
* He looks well treated at the moment
* One minor flaw is no winners came from hurdles
* He does also look the stable second string
* CHICAGO GREY has an excellent record here
* He is exposed though and ran badly last time
* I'd want more from an exposed horse
* Especially coming out two weeks since a poor run
* He comes from what has been so far a poor trial race

S h o r t l i s t

* PROMISING ANSHAN has to be considered
* He is quite low on Chasing experience as well
* Most of his runs are on sharp and flat tracks as well
* Nobody should pidgeon hole him after just 5 runs
* He also comes from a very good trial race at Ascot
* The winners from that race were all well beaten last time
* He did have a hard race at Ascot
* The risk is this race may come too soon
* That doesnt really worry me to be honest
* Ruby Walsh has said in the Press it is his main worry
* PROMISING ANSHAN is respected but not 1st choice

* BALTHAZAR KING is not that well handicapped
* I wanst keen on him as an exposed 7 year old
* Asking a lot to bounce back from his last run
* That said many have any many do
* He comes from the best trial race at Ascot
* There were 4 past winners coming from the same race
* He is in form and should run his race
* BALTHAZAR KING could place here

* REVE DE SIVOLA could be very well treated
* His Hurdles form was top class
* He should win Chases off his mark
* So far he has 1 Chase win in 8 starts
* His form has been hurt by some sloppy jumping
* You can argue many came at shorter trips
* Going a faster pace would not have helped him
* He was also pitched very high very early in Chases
* He placed at the Cheltenham Festival in a 3m handicap
* He had a horrible profile that day as a 6yo
* He ran very well at Aintree in a high class handicap
* He ran a bit flat last time but may have needed it
* If he clicks then REVE DE SIVOLA can win
* He is well treated and this race may suit him
* Run at a slower pace his jumping could hold up

S e l e c t i o n

REVE DE SIVOLA 9/1



L i n g f i e l d 2.15

11/8 Hunter´s Light, 4/1 Suits Me, 10/1 Circumvent
10/1 Night Lily, 10/1 Spring Of Fame, 14/1 Nice Style
14/1 Proud Chieftain, 16/1 Maali, 20/1 Satwa Pearl
25/1 Classic Colori.

The Churchill stakes is a Listed race at 10f. Lingfield
have had 11 renewals of this race. So far fillies have a
0-35 record in this race and I'd avoid SATWA PEARL
as a mare and NIGHT LILY another female who has
to come up from an 8f race. SPRING OF FAME looks
risky to me. Not only up in trip but he does not seem
to have acclimatised yet to racing in England. Horses
from handicaps all came from Class 2 race and having
only come from a Class 4 grade NICE STYLE has to
go as well. CLASSIC COLORI looks vulnerable at the
weights. PROUD CHIEFTAIN would be only the first
winner to come from a 3yo handicap and would also
be the least experienced winner and that puts me off
him. SUITS ME was beaten in this race in both 2009
and 2010 when younger. He is now 8 and although a
past winner was 7 he had a recent race and with a 51
day break I don't see why SUITS ME should improve
on his past efforts in this race. CIRCUMVENT looks
worthy of respect but no 4yo has won this from any
handicap in the past 7 weeks but does that matter ?

* CIRCUMVENT - Have to give him a place chance
* SPRING OF FAME - Criticised above on evidence
* Wouldnt rule him out bouncing back if he's come good
* HUNTER´S LIGHT - Top rated and must be shortlisted
* I havent found a 3yo win when absent over a Month
* None have won with under 9 runs and he has 7
* HUNTER´S LIGHT is not without some concerns
* In no hurry to bet him at a short price
* MAALI - Not unlike 2000 winner with less backclass
* No strong view in this race

* Clive Brittain won this in 2008 2010 with 3 year olds
* MAALI is another so I will risk him e/w 14/1



C h e l t e n h a m 2.35

Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Handicap)
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f110y

The Paddy Power Gold Cup Preview can be
found at the bottom of the message. I have
left it till last as it was so big it distorted the
rest of the message but its all there at the end.

Selection

Split Stake Bet

LOOSEN MY LOAD 16/1 Each Way

GREAT ENDEAVOUR 12/1 Win Bet

Full Analysis Below



L i n g f i e l d 2.50

9/4 Secret Asset, 6/1 Total Gallery, 10/1 Bajan Tryst
10/1 Docofthebay, 12/1 Breathless Kiss, 12/1 Elshabakiya
12/1 Five Star Junior, 12/1 Silaah, 14/1 Global City
20/1 Cochabamba, 20/1 Norville, 20/1 Secret Witness.

I have no angles of note to work from here as this
race has just 4 past renewals and there are none at
any other tracks. Throw in the fact the favourite
and another fancied horse have come from a race
in France and are hard to judge based on that. No
idea what to do in this so just the very quick mini
preview. SECRET ASSET would not be my choice
from his draw. Nor would TOTAL GALLERY for
a lack of runs this season. So far there hasnt been
a 3yo winner of this race. All 9 that tried lost and
none were 1st or 2nd so a little cautious but going
to oppose ELSHABAKIYA and COCHABAMBA.
I dont fancy SILAAH with an absence. I wouldn't
see enough in GLOBAL CITY another without a
recent run. I would pick one from this shortlist.

* Docofthebay - Breathless Kiss
* Five Star Junior - Bajan Tryst
* I have to guess here and like all 4 shortlisted
* BAJAN TRYST each way a speculative choice



C h e l t e n h a m 3.10

4/1 Oscargo, 5/1 Cantlow, 15/2 My Shamwari
10/1 Dorset Square, 11/1 Got Attitude, Rossmore Lad
12/1 Faltering Fullback, 12/1 Golan Way, Pettifour
14/1 Battle Group, 16/1 Counting House, 16/1 Define
16/1 Don´t Push It, 16/1 Raslan, Riptide, 20/1 Stow
28/1 Kylebeg Krystle, 33/1 Laustra Bad, Red Not Blue.

* This is a 25f handicap hurdle in Listed Class
* Cheltenham have 20 renewals of this race
* Not many great angles in what is a lethal race
* I know no past winners had 11st 8lbs or more
* I can't see a case for highweighted BATTLE GROUP
* All horses that came from 2m 4f or shorter lost
* DEFINE has that to overcome
* All 20 horses aged 10 or more lost
* No past winner had 3 or more runs that season
* You dont want a horse on the go for a while
* RASLAN is one of several that fail that
* Horses that ran this season need to run quite well
* Most were 1-2-3-4 last time and not beaten too far
* CANTLOW was beaten a bit too far for me last time
* I also looked for horses coming from Grade 2 hurdles
* All 19 that tried lost so CANTLOW is out
* OSCARGO only has 1 career run
* Every past winner of this had at least 4 runs
* I looked at all high class races at this time of year
* You find a 7yo winning with just 1 run
* OSCARGO would have to be opposed
* ROSSMORE LAD looks to have a fair profile
* I needed him to come from a better class race
* This is a bit too much of a step up in class

S h o r t l i s t

* DORSET SQUARE - Impossible to assess
* I like the fact he is fit from the flat
* Hate the fact he is described as a very small horse
* FALTERING FULLBACK - Impossible to assess
* I dont see any reason why he should be chosen
* PETTIFOUR - Massive absence and unlikely winner
* Very well treated over hurdles and can't be ruled out
* You wouldnt put it past his trainer to win this easily
* MY SHAMWARI - Every chance first time out
* Lightly raced like many first time out winners
* If he stays he could win this
* MY SHAMWARI has to be the selection



L i n g f i e l d 3.20

4/1 Loyalty, 9/2 Mull Of Killough, 6/1 Mia´s Boy
8/1 Chapter And Verse, 8/1 Fantasy Gladiator
8/1 Hazzard County, 8/1 Riggins, 12/1 Blue Moon
12/1 Nazreef, 14/1 Zacynthus, 25/1 Sinfonico
50/1 Taajub.

I don't want to do this Class 2 Handicap over a Mile
as there are no Class 2 handicaps over a mile at this
time of year so what can I say. Force me to guess I
would avoid the following. Taajub coming from a 5f
race. I'd avoid Zacynthus and Mull Of Killough as I
think they need more runs this season. Sinfonico is
out aged 3 with an absence. Hazzard County has one
run since last March which leaves me cold. Going to
ignore Blue Moon from a Listed race. Nazreef looks
very badly handicapped and should not be topweight
coming from a Class 4 race. These would be horses
I would avoid. I am left with five. I will take a risk
trying to shorten that by opposing MIA'S BOY as
he comes from a conditions race and because he's
just won a 7f race and is a 7 year old. This is not a
statistical preview as there are no stats just 1 from
the top of my head based on subliminal stats I may
expect to see had there been any similar races. I'm
shortlisting the following 4 horses in this race.

* RIGGINS - No strong objections
* CHAPTER AND VERSE - Respected
* FANTASY GLADIATOR - Respected
* LOYALTY- He's unexposed so shortlistable
* LOYALTY e/w 4/1 could be the bet




L i n g f i e l d 3.55

15/8 Beggers Belief, 5/1 Warden Bond
13/2 Ocean Of Peace, 8/1 Abigails Angel
8/1 Tinkerbell Will, 9/1 Woop Woop
12/1 Beckfield Dancer, 16/1 Indian Violet
16/1 Miss Bounty, 20/1 Kai Mook
25/1 Escape Artist, 33/1 Under Fire.

* This is a 10f Handicap for 0-58 rated horses
* I want to avoid the following horses
* INDIAN VIOLET exposed from 7f
* KAI MOOK a filly from 7f
* OCEAN OF PEACE with fitness doubts
* ESCAPE ARTIST - didnt do enough last time
* UNDER FIRE - Recent form and draw dont help
* BECKFIELD DANCER - Not the ideal 3yo filly
* TINKERBELL WILL - All 4yo fillies had 13 + runs
* WARDEN BOND - Unsafe but not a negative
* Statistically his profile is nothing special at all
* WOOP WOOP - Respected but not quite right
* No 3yo filly was as exposed as she is
* From a 3yo handicap her profiles unimpressive

S h o r t l i s t

* BEGGERS BELIEF - Enough positives to shortlist
* ABIGAILS ANGEL - 1 similar winner

Selection

* MISS BOUNTY may be worth a nibble at 10/1
* MISS BOUNTY is unsafe with no backclass from 12f
* I wouldnt rule her out though
* Bahamian Bounty her sire doesnt get 12f winners
* MISS BOUNTY's last two runs were over 12f
* She was an unlikely stayer in both those races
* She was also highly likely to have been unfit as well
* She didnt do badly last time in a better race
* 5 of her last 7 runs came over 12f
* Ignore those runs and she looks quite interesting
* She has the form to win a 0-58 like this
* MISS BOUNTY each way 10/1 a reasonable bet



C h e l t e n h a m 4.10

Not bothered about this 3m Novice Chase as not all
the questions can be answered and we only have the
7 runners. I wouldn't have gone with Restless Harry
without a good record of horses who ran in a Graded
hurdle this year. I haven't got that and whilst in no
way should he be seen as a negative I wanted a better
record than I found. Best profile is VIKING BLOND
as he won last time. JOIN TOGETHER is another I
could live with. One of these 2 would probably have
been my selection had there been 8 runners but not
enough evidence to take a firm view here.



W o l v e r h a m p t o n 6.20

No previews tonight at Wolverhampton with time
pressures. I liked HAADEETH in the 6.20pm race.
I'd have prefered a professional jockey but he looks
well handicapped and this 5f trip may help. I think
he has a better profile than Prince James. I was not
keen on Bond Blade or Crimson Queen. The main
danger may be BLOWN IT and he is the potential
saver but I did like HAADEETH's profile best.



C h e l t e n h a m 2.35

Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Handicap)
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f110y

7/2 Mon Parrain, 15/2 Wishfull Thinking
12/1 Dave´s Dream, Great Endeavour, The Giant Bolster
14/1 Divers, Loosen My Load, 14/1 Quantitativeeasing
16/1 Araldur, 16/1 Tullamore Dew, 20/1 Aerial
20/1 Billie Magern, Noble Alan, 25/1 Fine Parchment
25/1 Finger Onthe Pulse, 25/1 Holmwood Legend
25/1 Poquelin, 33/1 Calgary Bay, 33/1 Oiseau De Nuit
33/1 Swincombe Rock.

* The Paddy Power is a 2m4f110y Handicap Chase
* There has been 19 renewals since 1992
* Just a few generic angles to set the mood
* 10 of the last 19 winners had ran this season
* Those that ran over 17f or shorter were 1-49
* The recent winners had 7 6 3 9 5 6 6 12 15 10 5 chase runs
* The horse with 3 career runs was a Gold Cup winner
* 18 of the last 19 winners had Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Experience at Cheltenham before is a very big help
* History shows horses aged 10 or more are too old
* Both the following 10 year olds look weak
* HOLMWOOD LEGEND - FINGER ONTHE PULSE
* OISEAU DE NUIT comes out badly
* I dont like exposed and up in distance
* Every chance he wont stay this far
* CALGARY BAY is wrong exposed first time out
* SWINCOMBE ROCK is outclassed
* AIGLE D´OR is impossible to fancy
* POQUELIN is easy to ignore
* He was beaten too far just 14 days ago
* I don't see him winning this with Topweight
* AERIAL is the wrong aged as a 5yo
* Only 1 horse has won this race since 1960
* DIVERS comes out badly as an exposed 7yo
* Every past winner had form in a Graded race before
* DIVERS has not got that a big worry after 27 races
* Exposed horses like him won 5 of the last 19 past renewals
* Almost all of these had Grade 1 form
* DIVERS lacks that and fails statistically
* I dont think he ran well enough at Carlisle either
* FINE PARCHMENT is also exposed
* He also lacks Grade 1 form before
* Almost all exposed horses had Grade 1 form
* FINE PARCHMENT only has Grade 3 form
* He is not like any of the past winners
* DAVE´S DREAM is a seasonal debutant
* So far seasonal debutants aged 8 or more are 0-28
* Not a strong stat but I can't match him to a winner
* He's have come out better with Grade 1 backclass
* He lacks that and his Chase form is inconsistent
* 4 of his last 5 Chase runs were heavy defeats
* He clearly looks like a horse thats best fresh
* He gets that today but this is a difficult task of 147
* Connections said at Cheltenham he was badly handicapped
* He was rated just 138 then so this is a very tough ask
* I dont think he has achieved enough to risk him
* TULLAMORE DEW comes from a hurdles race
* No past winner did that and I see him as unsafe
* There were 2 winners aged 9 with 1 run this year
* Both had Grade 1 form and TULLAMORE DEW doesnt
* TULLAMORE DEW may just lack the class
* BILLIE MAGERN is an exposed 7yo
* All 7yo winners were less exposed than he is
* I think he will find it hard to win in a big handicap
* All his best form is in smaller fields.
* NOBLE ALAN has a couple of runs this season
* I cant find a winner doing that absent over a month
* I can't find one winning down in distance either
* I cant find one falling either last time
* Those are just 3 bland and average stats
* His jumping is shaky under pressure
* I think there are better options here
* ARALDUR is 7 and has 1 run this season
* The 2007 winner was reasonably similar
* He did win last time though and ARALDUR didnt
* He doesnt look well handicapped at the moment
* He lacks form at Chelteham as well
* I could not overlook both of those problems
* QUANTITATIVEEASING is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* He comes from a Handicap Chase
* Only 1 winner did that and from a Novice Handicap
* QUANTITATIVEEASING is not like any past winner
* I wouldnt make him a negative though
* I just dont see a strong case for him

WISHFULL THINKING

Clearly a smart horse but he has paid for it and I feel
he has too much to do and have to turn him down as
a selection. He ticks more and more boxes as he gets
more experienced and has Cheltenham form and has
wins in big fields. What worries me is his mark of 164
and his weight. Very few past winners have taken this
with so much weight. If you look at seasonal debutants
like him none managed it with 11st 10lbs or more first
time out. Come to think about we havent had an 8yo
win first time out since the Mid 1980's anyway much
as I would not worry about that. It also strikes me as
strange that he has the biggest weight in the race but
has no Grade 1 form. Since 1992 14 of the 19 winners
had Grade 1 form and he doesnt yet has to carry more
weight than any of them. He doesnt offer me enough.


THE GIANT BOLSTER

If you look for 6 year old winners that had 1 race that
season you only find Exotic Dancer the 2006 winner
and He was top class. I dont fancy this horse. It is not
easy to see a David Bridgwater horse winning a race as
good as this but there are other reasons so I can leave
snobbery aside. He raced in the Neptune Hurdle at the
Cheltenham festival but he started 200/1 rated just 127
then which clearly shows his limitations. Since has has
switched to fences he has a W F W UR F record. From
5 Chase starts he has failed to get round 3 times and I
would question hus jumping. He has apparantly been a
pupil of Yogi Breisner to try and sort this out but it is
still a big concern. He has Fallen and Unseated twice at
Cheltenham from 3 runs. He did win the other race he
ran in at Cheltenham but he was never comfortable in
that race jumping slowly at times. This is a far harder
race run at a stronger pace and his jumping is a worry.
No past winners came from a Hurdle race and overall
there is just too many doubts about his chasing form.

MON PARRAIN

This race doesn't often go to a 5 year old and it should
be remembered Gold Cup winner Long Run was beaten
in this race last year as a 5 year old and he had already
won a Grade 1 chase by that time. MON PARRAIN is
being highly tested for a 5yo. I do not know too much
about him as his English career takes in just 2 races but
I would be against the 5 year olds. Go back to 1960 and
this race with all its name changes and in over 50 years
the only winner aged 5 was Cyfor Malta. When he won
it was a small field and he also had Grade 1 form and a
win at Cheltenham and MON PARRAIN lacks both of
those valuable assests. He's no Cheltenham experience
and every past winner had Graded form and he doesn't.

S h o r t l i s t


GREAT ENDEAVOUR

There is a strong case for and against this horse . If we
look at the negatives arguments He flopped in the race
last year beaten 25 lengths. I opposed him then mainly
as he lacked Grade 1 or Grade 2 form. He still hasnt got
that under his belt yet and has to try and win this from
a higher handicap mark. The only first time out winners
aged 7 had Grade 1 form and as he lacks that he doesn't
come out like any winners. There is a case against him.
I think he has a better chance than all that sounds. He
fell at the Cheltenham Festival at the second last when
certain to have placed. He had an impossible task last
year trying to do something no horse his age had done
before at the festival and he was statistically down and
out last year. His performance tells me he's still able to
win off his current mark and has a bit in hand. He has a
very good overall record at the track a massive help to
most past winners even if the new course suits better.

* LOOSEN MY LOAD comes up in distance from 17f
* Thats not a good sign and it hurst his profile
* Tranquil Sea did manage it in 2009 though
* He was also 7 and I would see him as shortlistable
* He finds 2m on the sharp side and this trip will suit
* He has crucial Cheltenham form

Selection

LOOSEN MY LOAD 16/1 Each Way
GREAT ENDEAVOUR 12/1 Win

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