No Full Bet Today

Sunday Message Tomorrow

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2 Bets Today


NOTTINGHAM 5.30 - GRANDMAS DREAM 13/2 Win Bet

NOTTINGHAM 6.30 - YANKEE STORM 3/1 Win Bet


I plan to stay with smaller strength bets today. Not a
great collection of meetings and too many are National
Hunt cards. I thought these two stood out as I wanted to
find bigger priced horses. Not really my kind of Saturday
message to be honest. GRANDMAS DREAM might just
blast out and be uncatchable. At least thats my hope and
I think she has a good chance. YANKEE STORM looks
very well treated but has not proved as much on grass as
he has on Sand. If he repeats his sand form he will win. I
dont think the bets of message live up to a Saturday and
all its expectations but happy to wait for stronger races
on Sunday and Monday before going in harder.

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Message Thoughts

It's more than a bit dissapointing that we have to put
up with 4 National Hunt cards and only 2 Flat Racing
cards with Sandown a mixture of both. It should be at
least 4 Flat cards on a Saturday and it just feels like a
wasted Saturday and its produced a strangely scrappy
message that goes everywhere any anywhere. Timing
is impossible to get right on days like these. I have a
Pebble Dashed message with bits and pieces scattered
everywhere and not the sort of email I'd have chosen.

I think there is a chance Musselburgh could have been
overwatered so bear it in Mind. This particular mixed
Sandown Card has always been a poor one statistically
and some of the National Hunt has left me cold. The
message has 22 races commented upon in some small
way of another. Probably too many and I have got a
mixture of small and longer previews. It is messy and
disorganised because of what was on offer and the key
will be extracting the better business at the top of the
message and leaving the less impressive work behind.

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Thursday's Summary

There was no racing yesterday on Good Friday so that just
leaves me to Review Thursday which was a miserable day's
racing. I went with a Hurdler but OLYMPIAN BOY fell at
the 6th hurdle when leading and that was too early to know
how he would have run. Unlucky to bet a hurdle race faller
but had I had another pick I wouldnt have had a winner and
as a day it was non eventful and one to forget.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


I don't have a strong opinion in the 1.30 at Sandown. I saw
SANCTUAIRE as having every chance winning last week at
Ayr but CLERK´S CHOICE came out just as well if not better
and the official ratings give him the edge as well. Given the choice I would go with CLERK´S CHOICE as the winner.



MUSSELBURGH 1.55

Racing UK Handicap
(Qualifier for the Scottish Racing Sprint Final)
(CLASS 6) (3yo 0-65) 5f

11/4 Johnny Hancocks, 3/1 Dr Red Eye, 7/2 Misty Morn
6/1 Rothesay Chancer, 8/1 Saxonette, 10/1 Mr Mo Jo
12/1 Georgian Silver.

* This is a 3yo Handicap over 5f
* There are 44 similar races at this time of year
* SAXONETTE is a negative
* She is a filly racing first time out with 9 runs
* No filly won first time with more than 5 runs
* No fillies won first time coming from a Nursery
* GEORGIAN SILVER doesnt appeal to me
* She is a filly with no wins coming from a 5f handicap
* There were 2 winners like that but both ran within a week
* Those that didnt had a 0-23 record and she doesnt come out well
* MR MO JO doesnt offer enough
* DR RED EYE comes from a 3yo Maiden
* Horses doing that with 2-3-4 career runs were 0-21
* The only horse beaten in a 3yo maiden had 8 runs
* DR RED EYE has an unsafe profile
* JOHNNY HANCOCKS is more exposed than ideal
* He has 29 career starts
* No horse won a 3yo handicap at any distance in April
* Not with more than 21 career starts
* ROTHESAY CHANCER is from a Nursery with 9 runs
* Horses from Nurseries with 7 + runs won 2 races
* None came from 5f Nurseries (0-17)
* That worries me as does the absence
* MISTY MORN is a filly with 15 runs
* Fillies that won with 13 + runs ran a bit better than her last time
* I think the ground beat her at Catterick last time
* With recent runs I think she can bounce back
* MISTY MORN is my selection

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SANDOWN 2.05

2/1 King Of The Night, 7/1 Extreme Conviction
8/1 Dantari, Kazzene, 8/1 Stratigic Gale, 10/1 Monetary Fund 10/1 Occasionally Yours, 12/1 Gus Macrae, 12/1 Sunley Peace 12/1 Tobago Bay, Mohanad, 25/1 Raslan, 40/1 Awesome George.

* Just a few notes about this Handicap Hurdle
* I would avoid 4 year olds so KAZZENE is out
* I'd avoid horses with long absences as well
* STRATIGIC GALE and EXTREME CONVICTION are out
* OCCASIONALLY YOURS comes out badly
* No winners came from Novice Hurdles with 13 + runs like him
* DANTARI could go well at 9/1


HAYDOCK 2.20

I Didnt see a strong case for Drill Sergeant and would look for an each way alternative. Royal Max's absence bothers me. I would go with CROSBY JEMMA each way at 8/1 as
a fair ammount of money has come for her and you can
make a decent case for her on her rating.


MUSSELBURGH 2.30

5/6 Alejandro, 6/1 Mr Majeika, 7/1 Almond Branches
7/1 Drummoyne, 10/1 Blue Shoes, 10/1 Kodiac King
33/1 Lucky Mark, 40/1 Lady Of Edge.

This is a 2yo maiden and with more than half the field
unraced you have to guess. If you look at Racing Post
Ratings and take the average winning rating of winners
you find ALEJANDRO has already bettered that on his
debut telling me he should have the ability to win this.



SANDOWN 2.35

Evs Tataniano, 11/4 French Opera
9/2 Oiseau De Nuit, 8/1 Cornas, 25/1 Russian Flag
100/1 Chaninbar.

Most winners of this came from a Grade 1 Chase. I did
not like the record of handicappers too much despite a
winner last year from a handicap. OISEAU DE NUIT
and RUSSIAN FLAG come from handicaps. The issue
with TATANIANO is having just 1 run that season as
no past winners did that and his long absence will test
him as well. FRENCH OPERA comes from Aintree in
a significant trial race and I much prefer his profile of
the two. His runs at Sandown worry me but overall I'd
rather risk FRENCH OPERA than the favourite.



MUSSELBURGH 3.05

Racing UK Showing The Best Racecourses
Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-100) 1m1f

5/2 Glen´s Diamond, 4/1 Muhandis, 4/1 Rastaban
5/1 Kalleidoscope, 6/1 Calypso Magic, 10/1 Malthouse.

* This is a 3yo Handicap over 9f in Class 2
* I have looked at all similar races between 8f and 10f
* I think this is quite wide open
* I have MALTHOUSE as having a weak profile
* He lost by too far last time
* I have KALLEIDOSCOPE having a poor profile
* Filly from 2yo maidens over 7f struggle
* Happy with the other profiles in the race
* I wasnt that sold on GLEN´S DIAMOND
* I looked at all horses from Nurseries over 7f
* There were 4 winners but they all had 4-5-6-7 runs
* None had just 3 runs like him
* None were absent more than 7 months as he is
* None carried his weight either
* I felt others were much easier to match
* There were winners from 3yo maidens
* I found 2 winners like CALYPSO MAGIC
* RASTABAN has a decent profile
* MUHANDIS also comes out very well
* I would play it this way
* Saver on RASTABAN
* Win bet on MUHANDIS


SANDOWN 3.10

* Decided against doing the Bet365 Gold Cup
* There are a few very limp stats on the message board
* Horses that came out best to me are these
* MEANUS DANDY - CAN´T BUY TIME
* GENTLE RANGER - MAKTU



NEWTON ABBOT 3.15

* There are 13 Mares Maiden Hurdles in April at 16f-18f
* 4 year olds are 0-33 in these races
* HUMOR ME RENE fails that
* No unraced 4yo won at any distance like her
* ANAYA is also a 4yo and weak
* ADORABELLA comes out badly from bumpers
* SPIRITUAL ART stands out to me
* Aged stats suggest he should be winning this



MUSSELBURGH 3.40

Musselburgh Gold Cup Handicap (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 1m6f

9/2 Ubi Ace, 5/1 Deauville Post, 7/1 Nave, 8/1 European Dream 10/1 Beat The Rush, 10/1 Gordonsville, 11/1 Dazzling Light 12/1 Becausewecan, 12/1 Boston Blue, 12/1 Record Breaker 16/1 High Office, Overrule, 16/1 Tres Coronas, 20/1 Wells Lyrical.

* This is a 14f handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* Musselburgh has 10 similar races at this time of year
* There has been 41 similar races elsewhere

NEGATIVES

* DAZZLING LIGHT is the only female horse
* As she is exposed and first time out I oppose her
* TRES CORONAS comes from a 10f race
* Only 1 winner managed that with 1 run that season
* He was far lighter raced and his profile is poor
* NAVE is 4 and has 1 run this season
* Similar horses had a dissapointing 2-52 record
* Those with 13 or more career starts were 0-19
* NAVE has 18 runs and does not fit that profile
* I looked at horses with 1 run this year and 13 + runs
* Those coming from 12f or shorter were 1-41
* Those in that 1-41 record that were male were 0-33
* NAVE fails that and doesnt come out well
* OVERRULE fails the same angles and looks wrong
* Seasonal debutants aged 8 or more had a 1-51 record
* GORDONSVILLE is an 8yo seasonal debutant
* That sole winner carried 8st 2lbs and he has 9st 8lbs
* I looked at debutants absent 7 months or more
* I found a weak 1-61 record which puts me off him
* He did win this race last year when a 7yo debutant
* He has more weight now and a much longer absence
* I see GORDONSVILLE as unsafe

POSSIBLES

* BOSTON BLUE comes from a 3yo handicap
* Horses aged 4 doing that with 7 or more runs were 0-12
* I cant match BOSTON BLUE to any winners
* There are similar winners at other trips but not this
* I see him as unsafe anyway from a career high mark
* Especially as he has moved stables over the winter
* EUROPEAN DREAM is very hard to read
* I dont like his absence especially for an 8yo
* Not convinced how much form he is in at the moment
* He comes from Hurdles which makes the issue cloudier
* He has never raced beyond 10f yet on the flat
* He has a lot to prove but is well handicapped
* DEAUVILLE POST is 4 and has 1 run this season
* Similar horses had a dissapointing 2-52 record
* I can improve that record with some filters
* Neither won or placed last time out though
* DEAUVILLE POST has to be a little bit unsafe
* BEAT THE RUSH is a 4yo debutant
* I found 1 winner like him with less weight
* Not a negative but I'd have liked a safer profile
* BECAUSEWECAN is an exposed 5yo debutant
* I found 2 winners like that but both came from 2m races
* BECAUSEWECAN doesnt as he comes from 2m
* I wouldnt see that as a strong argument against him
* HIGH OFFICE is a 5yo seasonal debutant
* I found winners like him but none from 10f races
* He is unsafe but not a negative
* RECORD BREAKER is exposed with a recent run
* There are winners like that but none his age
* I found him unsafe but not dead statistically

POSITIVES

* UBI ACE is hard to read mixing hurdles and flat
* I was happy enough with his profile
* I see him staying and make him a positive
* WELLS LYRICAL is fine statistically
* There are a few concerns about him
* He lost his form last season
* All his wins come later in the year
* He hasnt had a run this year
* I See him as well handicapped though
* His reappearance last year would just about win this
* WELLS LYRICAL is worth at least a saver
* UBI ACE is suggested with him in a split stake bet



SANDOWN 3.45

I don't like CITYSCAPE or MUSIC SHOW in this race
and expect to see DICK TURPIN just about win with an
interesting danger in DREAM EATER a possible threat.



MUSSELBURGH 4.15

Scottish Racing Conditions Stakes (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 5f

6/4 Hamish Mcgonagall, 100/30 Waffle, 5/1 Elnawin
7/1 Striking Spirit, 12/1 Fitz Flyer, 12/1 Masta Plasta
16/1 Burning Thread.

* This is a 5f Conditions race for all aged horses.
* Musselburgh has 4 renewals of this race
* There are 28 similar races elsewhere

Very few decent angles in an unusual race. It may mean
nothing but all 4 winners of this race had form in either
a Group 1 or Group 2 race before. STRIKING SPIRIT is
lacking that and didnt run well enough last time out. I'd
argue exactly the same about FITZ FLYER. I could not
find a winner like MASTA PLASTA running this season
but absent so long. BURNING THREAD doesnt have a
lot of backclass and is less experienced than any similar
winner and I didnt like him. I respect WAFFLE but cant
match him to a winner with 1 run this year and down in
distance. Only 1 horse won with that profile and he was
younger and didnt come from a handicap as he does and
I see him as unsafe. HAMISH MCGONAGALL faces the
same problem as well. He also lacks form in a Grade 1/2
race like all the 4 past winners and I'd also wonder about
the ground for him and he hasnt won yet so early in the
season. It leaves ELNAWIN who must be respected.


HAYDOCK 4.35

I thought ULTRAVOX had much to prove as a 4yo that is
going up in distance. A BRIDGE TOO FAR comes from a
Novice Hurdle but has a bit to prove and lots of weight for
a 5yo doing that and I didnt like his profile. I couldnt find a 6yo like TIPTOEAWAY winning a Novice Hurdle last
time. I just prefered HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO.


MUSSELBURGH 4.45

Scottish Racing Handicap
(Qualifier for the Scottish Racing Stayers Final)
(CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-60) 1m6f

3/1 Oddsmaker, 9/2 Leaving Alone, 9/2 Petella
8/1 Ballade De La Mer, 8/1 Three White Socks
10/1 Maid Of Meft, 14/1 Front Rank, 14/1 Oh Landino
20/1 Thescottishsoldier, 25/1 Michevious Spirit.

* This is a 14f handicap for 0-58 rated horses
Some of these have awful profiles. I couldnt bet any horse
coming from 8f not least like THREE WHITE SOCKS as
he was hammered in a maiden over that far recently with
1 run that year. Several of them failed to run well enough
last time out. I include MICHEVIOUS SPIRIT as a filly
and well beaten last time. ODDSMAKER doesnt interest
me as a 10yo with 1 run this year and well beaten in that
race. I see BALLADE DE LA MER as unsafe. 4yo Fillies
first time out like MAID OF MEFT struggled and the 1
winner that managed it had more backclass than her and
less weight. THESCOTTISHSOLDIER hasnt shown any
form that tempts me to risk him. FRONT RANK has
a weak profile as an out of form 11yo. OH LANDINO
has shown very little on the flat and his only hope has
to be in the hope he has improved over hurdles and he
is lightly raced and that is possible. Wide open because
of its poor quality. LEAVING ALONE is an option. I
found 4yo fillies like her winning with recent runs but
they all came from 14f and more and she steps up in
trip and I think there are big stamina doubts.

SELECTION

PETELLA is a female and having her first run this
year. She was 3rd on her seasonal debut in this race
last year. With a new stable who are in form I think
she can win this.

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SANDOWN 4.50

Poker At bet365.com Handicap
(CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105) 1m14y

4/1 Treble Jig, 7/1 Hacienda, 8/1 Dance And Dance
8/1 Dunn´o, 9/1 Fremont, 12/1 Guest Book 12/1 Invincible Soul 12/1 Julienas, 14/1 Axiom, 14/1 Directorship
14/1 Gunner Lindley, 20/1 Huygens, 20/1 Suited And Booted
25/1 Benandonner, 33/1 Ezdeyaad, 33/1 Wannabe King.

* This is a 0-101 Handicap over a Mile
* There has been 23 similar races elsewhere
* DANCE AND DANCE didnt come out well
* Horses aged 5 with 13 + runs from 8f handicaps were ok
* Those with 1-2 runs that season were 0-24 though
* He only has 1 run this year and fails that
* I also think his draw will cause him problems
* Exposed Seasonal debutant have poor records
* In 23 similar races they had a 0-49 record
* DUNN´O fails that as an exposed debutant
* He has a W 3 record in this race but had a run those years
* Horses from 3yo handicaps won 2 races
* None had more than 7 career starts
* INVINCIBLE SOUL fails that with 10 runs
* SUITED AND BOOTED didnt do enough last time
* GUNNER LINDLEY didnt do much last time either
* He isnt unlike the 2009 winner of this race
* I could shortlist him because of that
* His draw puts me off though
* HUYGENS is the wrong type of 4yo debutant
* JULIENAS is the wrong type of 4yo debutant
* EZDEYAAD doesnt appeal up in trip
* Seasonal debutants aged 5 had a 1-39 record
* That winner had under 13 starts
* WANNABE KING is unsafe failing hat
* DIRECTORSHIP also fails that and is unsafe
* BENANDONNER comes from a Claiming race
* None of the 23 winners did that and he looks hard to like
* FREMONT didnt do enough for me last time
* AXIOM comes out badly with a 1 run this season
* Exposed horses his age only won with more
* GUEST BOOK is a similar type and also opposed
* I didnt like 4 year olds like this pair with 7-12 runs
* Not when running this year and not winning

SHORTLIST

* HACIENDA has a reasonable profile

* TREBLE JIG is ther right type of 3yo handicapper

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MUSSELBURGH 5.15

TurfTV Handicap
(Qualifier for the Scottish Racing Mile Final)
(CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-65) 1m

3/1 Ravi River, 4/1 The Gillie, 7/1 Amno Dancer
9/1 Cold Quest, 10/1 Call Of Duty, 10/1 Casino Night
10/1 Glenluji, 10/1 Paradise Spectre, 16/1 Bahamian Kid
20/1 Mr Emirati, 20/1 Royal Straight, 50/1 Brisbane.

* This is a Mile Handicap over a Mile
* There are 199 similar races at this time of year
* Horses from 12f races had a weak 4-88 record
* None came from sellers like ROYAL STRAIGHT
* None had just 1 run that season like ROYAL STRAIGHT
* He also has a very difficult draw
* PARADISE SPECTRE is 4 and has 1 run this season
* 4 year old Males with that profile up in distance struggled
* Those with under 13 runs like him were 0-27
* PARADISE SPECTRE has an unimpressive profile
* BAHAMIAN KID was well beaten first time this year
* He needs abnormal improvement to win this race
* He has 4 runs at 8f and every one was a heavy defeat
* Yet to prove he stays he looks vulnerable
* MR EMIRATI ran too badly last week
* He doesnt offer anything in current form
* BRISBANE has not shown nearly enough
* THE GILLIE comes from a 3yo maiden race
* Horses doing that had a miserable 1-115 record
* Those with 8 or fewer starts doing that were 0-88
* He also comes from a 6f race which wont be easy
* THE GILLIE is well entered up and a decent trainer
* On his profile though he has a lot to prove
* COLD QUEST is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* There are 3 seasonal debutant 7yo winners
* None came from 7f like he does
* He is from a stable that rarely have them fit first time
* CALL OF DUTY is an exposed seasonal debutant
* There are winners like that but none came from a 6f race
* Those like him age 6 with no form beyond Class 4 were 0-23
* CALL OF DUTY has an unsafe profile
* GLENLUJI is an exposed 6yo seasonal debutant
* He has no form beyond a Class 4 race
* Similar horses had a 0-23 record in these races
* He starts the year on a career high mark
* His wins all come in June and July
* His last 3 wins all came with a recent run
* GLENLUJI looks unsafe and is not well drawn

SHORTLIST

* CASINO NIGHT is an exposed 6yo mare
* She is having her seasonal debut but has Class 2 form
* Similar horses had an encouraging 3-12 record
* All 3 winners were highweights
* CASINO NIGHT has to be considered with a decent profile
* One of his biggest problems is the worst draw
* RAVI RIVER has a decent enough profile
* Perhaps a little less weight would improve that profile
* Fit and well treated he is a serious runner
* AMNO DANCER has a decent profile
* Unexposed 4 year olds like him score well
* Weighted to finish close to Ravi River

SELECTION

AMNO DANCER 5/1 Win Bet
RAVI RIVER 5/2 Saver




NOTTINGHAM 5.30

3/1 Palais Glide, 7/2 Winniepeg, 5/1 Acclamatory
7/1 Grandmas Dream, 7/1 Tro Nesa, 8/1 Nine Before Ten
8/1 Sugar Beet, 16/1 Aurivorous.

Unusual fillies handicap. I would prefer experience
in this race and fitness and have turned down horses
like WINNIEPEG and ACCLAMATORY. I was not
convinced by TRO NESA either. SUGAR BEET is a
possible and lots to like about her chance but down
in trip and well drawn GRANDMAS DREAM has a
serious chance for me. Paul Doe a jockey who does
not travel for nothing has come up for his only ride
of the day and I can see him trying to make all here.



KELSO 5.40 - PILGRIMS LANE Comes out best



NOTTINGHAM 6.00

This is a 5f maiden. Personally I would rather bet the
experienced JIMMY THE LOLLIPOP with experience
in the Brocklesby than the unraced WOLFGANG. That
said WOLFGANG is probably a better horse or at least
will be soon. What puts me off WOLFGANG is partly
the fact he is a very young May Foal. Mostly though
his Draw in stall 1. In the last 2 seasons at Nottingham
in all 38 races with 9 or more runners horses drawn in
stall 1 had a 0-34 record and its asking a lot to win the
race from that draw. I don't know what strength there
is elsewhere with the unraced horses and the market is
going to have to help in that regard but the selection
at this stage would be JIMMY THE LOLLIPOP


KELSO 6.15

I'd rather bet FORTUNI than OH SO BEAUTIFUL but I
didnt see either as strong statistically. It may be worth a
bigger priced horse like HANNAH JACQUES each way.



NOTTINGHAM 6.30

4/1 Lees Anthem, 5/1 Yankee Storm, 7/1 Crimson Queen
8/1 Canadian Danehill, 8/1 Silver Wind, 8/1 Thoughtsofstardom 10/1 Athwaab, 10/1 Musical Bridge, 10/1 Triskaidekaphobia 12/1 Gertmegalush, 16/1 Excellent Vision.

* This is a 5f Handicap in Class 6
* The Draw could be important here
* Since 2010 there were 13 handicaps with 9 + runners
* Winners were drawn 12 11 15 17 4 3 10 6 14 12 14 8 14
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 were 1-34
* LEES ANTHEM would not be my choice
* Ok profile but badly drawn and 50/1 last time
* ATHWAAB and CANADIAN DANEHILL look avoidable
* Both are drawn badly and look shaky
* GERTMEGALUSH is froma 3yo handicap
* I cant find a similar winner as exposed as him
* SILVER WIND has ran 59 times in a row over further
* He is a threat but 5f has to be a risk
* He has only won in a Visor before and he has blinkers on
* EXCELLENT VISION hasnt done enough
* THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM could go well back at 5f
* CRIMSON QUEEN is surprisingly fine statistically
* YANKEE STORM is a positive despite no Turf wins
* Well handicapped and the ground doesnt worry me
* From a good draw YANKEE STORM has the best chance


NOTTINGHAM 7.00

7/4 Lemon Drop Red, 5/1 Melbury, 5/1 Rational Act
6/1 Tapis Libre, 7/1 Zamina, 10/1 Looksmart
16/1 Gothic Chick, 16/1 Savinien.

This is a 3yo handicap over a Mile. I looked at horses with
1 run this year going up in trip like RATIONAL ACT and
found a poor record. Horses doing that with 4 or more runs
had a 0-46 record and those from handicaps were 0-34. I'm
also against MELBURY as a filly up in distance. Fillies with 1 run this year like LOOKSMART and ZAMINA have weak
1-56 records and none had 7 or more runs like these two do.
Because of these and other angles LEMON DROP RED has
to be the selection and the more likely winner.
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