No Strong Bet Today


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T o d a y ' s S e l e c t i o n s

No Bet Today


I never know how a messge will end up once its
started. This one feels a reasonably competent
one given the drawbacks of how many meetings
there are the obvious problem that rain will hit
several tracks but we dont know when or where.

Its a message based on the afternoon racing and
focussed mainly on Warwick and Newmarket. I
think my Newmarket previews are just about ok
given the ground doubts. I would not put anyone
off following these to smaller realistic stakes but
I don't see an outstanding bet at the right price.

I always like doing Warwick. Doesnt always treat
me as kind as I like but again an intersting card I
like. Lots of early maidens so not much I'm able
to say but the previews are honest and look like
they should hold their own. I like most races and
would also suggest following the message here.

No Bet Today. I wanted one outstanding bet but
feel I have lots of reasonably similar business so
will leave it a blank day. Not that I see this as a
failed message. I think it is a good one. The one
horse I nearly went with was STEELCUT 5.00.
I will make him my Nap around 8/1 but feel it is
more a message for smaller stakes throughout in
most races that finish with a firm conclusion.

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M e s s a g e T h o u g h t s


Mainly N e w m a r k e t and W a r w i c k today with an
Epsom race thrown. Too many cards to do them all so had
to prioritise and leave some work on the cutting room floor.

I don't think I read F o l k e s t o n e very well and today's card is all small fields and I have ignored that. No meat on the bones there so it seemed right to sacrifice the meeting.

I have done the opening race at E p s o m which is tough
but interesting but after that the card falls apart and small fields take over and it wasn't a meeting that offered me an outstanding oppurtunity so I left it at that. D o n c a s t e r isn't included at all. Not a good card and no breakthroughs.



W e d n e s d a y s S u m m a r y


Wanting to hit a good run of form soon I had been patience
and only wanted to go with bets I felt had a brilliant chance. I thought VIEWING was an excellent bet yesterday and it is surprising and frustrating for a few reasons She came second. The frustration comes from the fact she went odds on in the race and looked sure to win. I think it was a combination of two factors that got her beat. No doubts at all that she was the best horse in the race. I don't feel the ride she was given was particularly inventive. What mattered more was she did not help her jockey at all and looked unwilling to pass the winner when giving the impression she could do that at any time. I think she dogged it and that seems the general view. More frustration came shortly after the race. I had a phone
call. A good friend of mine knows the owners of the winner
of the race. The owner is very local to me. Apparantly he
walked into a betting shop a couple of miles away from me.
He had a smaller stake than usual on the winner. When the
race was off he told my friend after a furlong that he didn't know the Lingfield race was being run on the turf course so had expected him to be running on the Sand. Thats the level of insight the winners had about the race which left me just a little frustrated the horses bad attitude cost him victory.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S




N e w m a r k e t 1.20


9/4 Solar Sky, 5/2 Census, 5/2 Masked Marvel
8/1 Zain Al Boldan, 14/1 Hurricane Higgins
25/1 Crimson Knight.

The Bahrain Trophy is unsafe statistically as it has been
recently been upgraded in class and shortened in distance
so only 5 relevant renewals exist. They show all winners
of this race had Pattern Class form before. None of the
past winners came from handicaps so both CENSUS and
CRIMSON KNIGHT fall short. All 5 winners had between
4 - 9 career starts and I felt SOLAR SKY was potentially
underraced with 3 runs. These would be my negatives but
not very good ones. I could argue we have not yet had a
female winner like ZAIN AL BOLDAN but few tried. It
is not my kind of race but MASKED MARVEL would be
my choice. He ran a good race in the Derby. The winner
of this race in 2009 did the same and has a similar profile. I respect CENSUS but he took 3 runs to win his maiden as a 2yo where as MASKED MARVEL won first time and
went straight into Group races. You can never tell with
these 3 year olds all going backwards and forwards quite
quickly but I feel the best option is MASKED MARVEL.

Selection - MASKED MARVEL 5/2



N e w m a r k e t 1.50

7/4 Roman Soldier, 9/4 Frederick Engels, 6/1 Church Music
7/1 Bannock, 14/1 North Star Boy, 14/1 Sans Loi
33/1 Kenny Powers.

The TNT July Stakes is for Male 2 year olds over 6f and
a long history of this race shows every past winner raced
only 1-2-3 times before. No winners were as experienced
as FREDERICK ENGELS or BANNOCK and although its
only by a whisker it's fact. KENNY POWERS should not
be good enough. The last 2 winners had 1 career race from
a maiden like CHURCH MUSIC but they came from 6f so
I can not match him with 1 run from a 5f maiden. No big
arguments against NORTH STAR BOY apart from he may
not have done enough last time and looks held. SANS LOI
is respected but does not look as strong as the selection.

S e l e c t i o n

* ROMAN SOLDIER has the strongest profile
* Horses coming from the Coventry Stakes at Ascot
* Beaten under 4 lengths in that race
* Between 2-3 career starts
* There were 8 horses with this profile
* They finished W W 5 2 W 5 3 W
* ROMAN SOLDIER would be my selection



W a r w i c k 2.15

3/1 Jungle, 4/1 Red Alpha, 4/1 Royal Majestic
5/1 Fugitive Motel, 10/1 Always Eager, 10/1 Cool Light
14/1 Ashpan Sam, Dickens Rules, 20/1 Parque Atlantico
33/1 Fu Fic Fas, 33/1 My Boy Ginger, 100/1 Arbeejay.

This is a 7f Maiden. Not much I can say here. I would be
happier with a middle high draw than a low one. I'd rather
have an experienced horse. All 6 past winners of this did
have a run before. With many runners here having had a
run I'd be against unraced ALWAYS EAGER a very late
foal and PARQUE ATLANTICO as well. I was not keen
on FUGITIVE MOTEL up in distance after a big defeat
on his debut. ASHPAN SAM is popular in the market. I
ran his profile from a 6f Auction Maiden with 1 run and
found similar male horses had a 1-44 record with the sole
winner running better than he did. ASHPAN SAM doesn't
look strong statistically and I dislike his draw in Stall one. Since 2010 Warwick have 20 races over this distance with 10 or more runners. Horses drawn 1-2-3 were just 1-56 as higher draws dominated so ASHPAN SAM is not offering
me enough. RED ALPHAis an option but came up short
last time and he finished behind a horse who subsequently
got beaten in a seller. I'd prefer to stay with the two fillies JUNGLE and ROYAL MAJESTIC. Hard to split these as
I marginally prefer JUNGLE but she has the weaker draw
of the two. In the end I decided on a win and place bet.

Selection

JUNGLE 4/1 Win Bet
ROYAL MAJESTIC 4/5 to be Placed


N e w m a r k e t 2.25

This 3yo handicap is a ridiculous waste of time especially
without a strong draw advantage. All I would say is I have
looked at this and all similar Class 2 handicaps. I cant see a winner down from 12f with fewer than 4 career starts so MIJHAAR is unsafe. He comes from a Group race and the
only winner doing that had far more experience. I would
see MIJHAAR as unsafe and given his price one to avoid.
I wouldn't lay him tough. Half the field wont have a hope
of winning. I'll take a wild guess on LABARINTO.


W a r w i c k 2.50

5/2 Alabanda, 4/1 Crius, 6/1 Dovils Date
6/1 Fromthestables Com, 8/1 Niceofyoutotellme
10/1 Emperors Pearl, 12/1 Coach Montana
16/1 Clean Bowled, 20/1 Tingo In The Tale
25/1 Nifty Shiftin, 25/1 Sudden Wish.

Division 2 of the 7f Maiden and again a race where I can
only guess. I didnt like EMPERORS PEARL enough after
her first run. I thought FROMTHESTABLES COM might
be overtaken by better horses. With unraced and lightly
raced horses we are blind here. NICEOFYOUTOTELLME
is popular in the market as an unraced horse but as I state
in the 2.15pm preview Stall 1 and low draw stalls have a
miserable record her and the draw puts me off him. I see
COACH MONTANA as badly drawn and not doing all I
would want after three runs. CLEAN BOWLED has too
much improvement to be confident about. CRIUS must
be respected but he is unraced and hardly strong in the
market. DOVILS DATE could also run well and may be
a reasonable place saver but his trainer has said he may
be better in Nurseries. ALABANDA looks the strongest
chance. ALABANDA is a filly with 3 runs coming from
a 7f maiden. Similar horses had a 4-11 record which is a
reasonably good record for a race like this. Well drawn
I will go with ALABANDA as my bet in an open race.



N e w m a r k e t 3.00

11/4 Redwood, 4/1 Crystal Capella, 9/2 Afsare
5/1 Laaheb, 7/1 Campanologist, 10/1 Dordogne
20/1 Myplacelater, 20/1 Ted Spread, 33/1 Buthelezi.

The Princess of Wales is a Group 2 over 12f. I have gone
back to the 1980's and no past winner of this race won it
with just one race that season. REDFORD fails that and a
long absence as well with 1 run this year puts me off him.
I'd avoid him and MYPLACELATER having just 1 race.
CRYSTAL CAPELLA has one run this season as well and
she is a mare and we have not had a female winner in 29
years. All previous winners had run in Group Class before.
BUTHELEZI is rejected failing that standard. I think we
should concentrate on 4 horses. DORDOGNE is one that
we should consider but no past 3yo winner had his absence
which puts me off him. AFSARE has a decent chance but
all previous 4 year old winners had more backclass than
he does. CAMPANOLOGIST has a shaky profile for me
as he is a bit too exposed with last time out hardly being
impressive and he's flopped in this race before. I'd look
at him as more of a saver. Overall LAAHEB came out
with the safest profile so I'll go with LAAHEB each way.

Selection - LAAHEB e/w



W a r w i c k 3.25

5/2 Canna, 11/4 Brick Dust, 100/30 Lady Elsie
5/1 Mungo Park, 8/1 Star In Flight, 20/1 Charlie Fable
20/1 Manarola, 33/1 Astroverdi, 100/1 Farmers Hill
100/1 Greyemkay.

This is a messy all aged maiden just short of 11f. I looked at all maidens at 10f and more. None of the winners came from a 7f race this season so I'd oppose BRICK DUST. He looks a horse to avoid based on the following complicated statistic.

* June - July - August have seen 777 all aged maidens
* Thats 777 maidens run at 10f and more
* I looked at 3 year olds coming from 3yo maidens
* Those coming from 7f or shorter in these 3 months
* I found a 2-69 record with these horses
* Fillies had a 2-29 record in these races
* Males like BRICK DUST had a 0-40 record in them

It's hard to know how much trust or emphasis I should put
in that statistic but several started favourite and only 1 of them came second as well so overall BRICK DUST looks a
vulnerable favourite to me. I'd oppose STAR IN FLIGHT
as 3 year olds do score much better. MUNGO PARK has a
chance but all horses from 2yo maidens over 8f had raced
just once not twice. CANNA is hard to read well beaten in
a Listed race 68 days ago. I couldnt find any winner from
a Listed race beaten that far and I see him as unsafe. He's
well thought of though and described as a "Playboy" so a
Gelding operation could help him and given his absence I
could not rule him out at all. LADY ELSIE looks another
I could give a decent chance to. I'd consider both here.

Selection

LADY ELSIE 6/1 Win Bet
CANNA 3/1 Saver



W a r w i c k 3.55

7/2 Mrs Greeley, 4/1 Camache Queen, 4/1 Queen Of Cash
6/1 Ellie In The Pink, 6/1 No Poppy, 7/1 Poyle Judy
12/1 Saskia´s Dream, 14/1 Herminella.

This is a fillies handicap over 7f for 3 year olds. Tight knit race. I thought with 19 runs NO POPPY would have been a much more attractive bet if less exposed and the winners in similar races like her all had less weight. MRS GREELEY is coming up from 6f and all similar horses doing that had at least 3 runs this season and she has just two. They would be the two I'd avoid but I couldnt make them negatives. The rest aside from the outsiders are quite closely matched and don't throw up any really good or bad profiles. Given quite a competent profile and a recent run QUEEN OF CASH is just my prefered choice around 7/2 and why not each way.



N e w m a r k e t 4.05

No interest at all in this conditions race. Only 4 renewals
so far. All 4 previous winners came from Listed and Group
races. None like CAI SHEN or BRIGEFIELD came from a
handicap. Maybe best to rely on FURY but a boring race.



W a r w i c k 4.30

7/2 Hawk Moth, 6/1 Mister Ben Vereen, 6/1 Oetzi
8/1 Cadmium Loch, 9/1 El Maachi, 9/1 Minety Lass
10/1 Watts Up Son, 12/1 Avalon Bay, 12/1 Spirit Of Grace
14/1 Spirit Of Oakdale, 20/1 Arctic Mirage, 25/1 Karate
25/1 Khaleeji, 25/1 Loves Theme.

This is a 3yo Handicap over 7f. Its pretty impossible so the best I can do is a shortlist based on 5 past renewals and some other similar races. I will predict that horses drawn 1 and 2 in this race are beaten. I predict the winner will have run in the past 3 weeks and not been beaten more than 10 lengths in that race. I predict he will have under 14 career runs and come from a handicap. Those unsteady predictions leaves a shortlist of 4 horses. No big expectation about any winning but it's the only edge I can see in this race. I shortlist these :

Arctic Mirage- Karate - Cadmium Loch - Hawk Moth

ARCTIC MIRAGE and KARATE are more exposed than
the other two and not too keen on either of their stables.
I see CADMIUM LOCH and HAWK MOTH as the ones.

Selection

HAWK MOTH 4/1 Each Way




N e w m a r k e t 4.40

100/30 Apace, 5/1 Jamesway, 5/1 La Fortunata
7/1 Lujeanie, 8/1 Five Star Junior, 8/1 Perfect Blossom
10/1 Whozthecat, 14/1 Bertoliver, 14/1 Murura
16/1 Fol Hollow.

* This is a 5f Handicap for horses rated 0-91
* There are 247 similar races at this time of year
* APACE is a 3yo filly from a 3yo handicap over 5f
* In 247 races similar horses had a 0-49 record
* APACE does not offer me enough
* Horses aged 3 with 13 or more runs were just 2-86
* Males doing that from 5f handicaps were just 1-55
* JAMESWAY fails that and is a bit exposed for a 3yo
* LA FORTUNATA is a 4yo filly from a 5f race
* All 12 winners with that profile had 3 + runs that season
* Those with 13 or more career starts needed 4 + runs that year
* LA FORTUNATA has just two and she falls short for me
* PERFECT BLOSSOM also fails that with 1 run this season
* MURURA comes from a 7f race
* No 4 year old won a similar race doing that (0-20)
* BERTOLIVER - looks unsafe and hard to fancy
* FOL HOLLOW is exposed aged 6 from a 5f race
* I looked at similar horses with 1-2-3 runs that year
* I found 1 winner like him absent over a Month
* FOL HOLLOW is like 1 winner and a possible
* Not sure this would be his best track
* The 7lbs claimer puts me off as well without a win before

P o s s i b l e s

* WHOZTHECAT - Enough to shortlist
* LUJEANIE is an exposed 5yo with just Class 3 form
* He has 1-2-3-4 runs this season
* I found 2 winners with his profile in a 2-11 record
* One had a much more recent run the other a big absence
* He has never won at 5f but shapes like it may suit
* It would worry me he has a career high mark
* Overall LUJEANIE has to be shortlisted
* FIVE STAR JUNIOR comes out reasonably well
* He was second in the race last year

Selection

FIVE STAR JUNIOR 11/2 Win Bet
LUJEANIE 7/1 Saver Bet



W a r w i c k 5.00

4/1 Orpsie Boy, 9/2 Collect Art, 6/1 Barons Spy
6/1 Steelcut, 8/1 Ocean Legend, 10/1 Seneschal
10/1 Shifting Star, 12/1 Peter Island, 12/1 Spanish Acclaim
12/1 Westwood, 20/1 Fabreze.

* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* Warwick have had 9 renewals of this race
* There are 338 similar races elsewhere
* I'd rather have a middle to high draw myself
* This is not a race for seasonal debutants
* Horses in 338 races absent 12 + weeks were 3-146
* FABREZE is the wrong type of debutant
* SENESCHAL looks too old for a debutant
* SPANISH ACCLAIM is the wrong type of debutant
* WESTWOOD has a weak profile with 1 run this year
* Especially exposed and with a long absence
* There were 6 winners aged 9 or older
* They all had at least 4 runs that season
* BARONS SPY is 10 and has just 2 runs this year
* He won last time and hasnt run in 26 days
* I would be nervous about him winning again aged 10
* ORPSIE BOY won a 7f handicap last time
* 3 winners did that but they were all much younger
* They all had more runs that season than he does
* I looked at all horses aged 7 or more from 7f handicaps
* None won with under 7 runs that season
* None won or placed last time out
* ORPSIE BOY may well go and win after his last run
* Statistically though he is unsafe and not like any winners
* SHIFTING STAR comes from a 7f handicap
* I looked at all horses aged 6 and more doing that
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that season were 1-50
* SHIFTING STAR fails that and has just 4 runs this year
* That sole winner ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt
* SHIFTING STAR doesnt have a brilliant profile
* He hasnt won in 3 years and he isnt for me


S h o r t l i s t

* OCEAN LEGEND is a well handicapped 6yo
* All his wins though have come at 7f and more
* Statistically OCEAN LEGEND is very solid
* He is best in a small field and could easily win
* I'd rather have a higher draw
* I'd rather have proven winning form over 6f
* Statistically good but non statistical problems

* COLLECT ART is difficult to read
* Very consistent but has paid for that
* His best win is off 75 yet today he races off 85
* Clearly badly handicapped and why he has a claimer riding
* COLLECT ART does have a shortlistable profile
* I would just see enough to shortlist him
* The handicap mark is offputting though

* PETER ISLAND was second in this race last year
* He did that from a mark of 82 and now he is on 70
* PETER ISLAND has 14lbs less weight today
* That gets PETER ISLAND shortlisted
* Statistically I found 1 winner with a similar profile
* I would like more runs this season given the choice
* He is well treated though and has good history here

* STEELCUT is 7 and on a career high mark
* I looked at exposed horses aged 7-8 from 5f handicaps
* Those like STEELCUT running within 2 weeks were 6-46
* I looked at those with 7 or more runs that season
* I looked at those beaten under 4 lengths last time
* That improves the record to 4 winners from 12 runners
* The 2001 and 2005 winners of this race had that profile
* STEELCUT comes out very well in this race
* Despite his career high mark he is interesting

Selection

Very hard to split these. Will PETER ISLAND be able
to dominate as he likes from a high draw. How much is
OCEAN LEGEND going to be hindered by a low draw
that results show is not ideal. Is STEELCUT safe for
a horse from 5f and on a career high mark. Will the
claimer be enough to keep COLLECT ART winning
with a tough mark.

Selection

STEELCUT 8/1 Each Way



E p s o m 6.20

5/2 Amana, 5/1 Hawaana, 13/2 Effigy
7/1 Bubbly Braveheart, 8/1 Very Well Red, 9/1 Miss Bounty
9/1 Recalcitrant, Megalala, 11/1 Potentiale, 16/1 Aspectus.

This is a 10f Apprentice handicap. Trappy little race
and I think horses drawn 1-2-3 have problems. There
has been only 15 course and distance races since 2008
with 9 or more runners. Stalls 1-2-3 had a 1-45 record
in these races. EFFIGY is badly drawn and I wasnt sold
on his profile either or his career high mark. Also from
a poor draw is MEGALALA and I felt he was poor as a
10 year old winning over 12f last time. POTENTIALE
has an average draw and average profile and stable and
I didn't see enough I liked. I'd avoid RECALCITRANT
underraced as an 8yo. ASPECTUS comes out badly. It
may be best to avoid VERY WELL RED as mare up in
distance. BUBBLY BRAVEHEART has a chance but I
would have liked another run this season. Statistically
I should oppose MISS BOUNTY as mares down from
a 12f race had a 0-39 record. Despite that I do respect
her. She is from a Sire that has a 0-59 record with all
runners over 12f and more. MISS BOUNTY has twice
ran over 12f not getting home. Back at this trip she
could go very well from a stable that like winners here.
Statistically shes wrong but I thought the drop in trip
made her more interesting. AMANA and HAWAANA
are also well worth shortlisting in quite an open race.

S h o r t l i s t


* HAWAANA is shortlistable
* His problem will be any rain that changes the ground
* MISS BOUNTY - Unsafe profile but an angle I liked
* AMANA - Fair chance. Hard to read. Solid not spectacular

Selection

MISS BOUNTY 10/1 +

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