No Strong Bet Today


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3 Advised Bets Today


Newbury 2.10 - DANCING RAIN 100/30
Newbury 4.20 - ELZAAM 11/4

Each Way Double


Newbury 3.10 - CENSUS 2/1 Win Bet


Newmarket 5.10 - SOLEMN 5/1 Each Way



Late finishing again today sorry. I'm in two minds with
CENSUS. The positives are really strong for me. He is
a massive well regarded 3 year old heading for 1 of the
big Ascot handicaps like the King George V and I think
he should win first time out. After non runners all he is
being asked to do is win a 0-79 rated handicap. Two of
his biggest dangers are only once raced and do not have
good profiles. Brilliantly placed. Very confident he will
have the class to bully these. Against him a few doubts.
Not sure Richard Hannon is trustworthy with debutant
3 year olds. There's always the danger that they might
not want to win to keep his weight lower at Ascot. He
is already safely in the expected Handicap there so its
a little concern. Overlooking that and see him likely
to have too much class for what is now a weak field.

SOLEMN runs in a 5f Handicap and deserves to have
some support. There are sexier horses against him in
a 8 runner race. He is the only horse though I match
to any winners to similar races. There are a lot here
with fitness question marks and SOLEMN is fine and
fitter than most in the race. He should have enough

My final bet is an each way double. Speculative bet
really but I did like two profile and felt they had a
strong winning chance and ought to at least place.


I nearly went with SHABAK HOM in the 8pm race
tonight at Hamilton but wasn't convinced I knew all
I should about him but he came out well and the race
has an interesting negative favourite that is drawing
me into play in the race. Maybe too many have big
chances in the race but I did consider him.

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Message Thoughts

Quiet day yesterday without a bet given on the day
and I sense that was the right thing to do. Today is
a very busy day. Time has meant I can't do as much
as I'd like with the evening cards but I have still got
options there. York is repulsive as usual but support
from Newbury and Newmarket lead to plenty to say.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


York 1.30

6/4 Miss Work Of Art, 5/1 Pyman´s Theory
7/1 Queens Revenge, 8/1 Sweet Chilli, 8/1 Vocational
12/1 Princess Banu, 12/1 Redair, 16/1 Bubbly Ballerina
25/1 How Sweet It Is, 25/1 Red Hearts.

This is the 7th year of this Listed race for 2yo fillies. The horses from Maiden races to win this all had just one career race. Those with 2 or more runs have yet to win this and PYMAN´S THEORY, PRINCESS BANU, RED HEARTS
and SWEET CHILLI fail that. MISS WORK OF ART has
more to offer than these and I would see her as the bet.


York 2.00

11/2 Kansai Spirit, 7/1 Awsaal, 9/1 The Fonz, 12/1 Averroes
12/1 Crackentorp, 12/1 Deauville Flyer, 12/1 Hanoverian Baron 12/1 Royal Swain, 12/1 Tepmokea, 16/1 Antigua Sunrise
16/1 English Summer, 16/1 Mataaleb, 20/1 Bowdler´s Magic
20/1 Chilly Filly, 20/1 Dazzling Light, 20/1 Montparnasse
25/1 Lovers Causeway.

This is a Class 2 handicap over 12f. There are too many
runners and the race has been upgraded over the years. I
looked at all similar races. I would assume the winner will
be a 4 or 5 year old. I looked at seasonal debutants. I see
AWSAAL as weak from a 3yo handicap with that sort of
weight. I dont like MATAALEB from a 3yo handicap so
he has to go. Exposed seasonal debutants struggle so that
puts me off TEPMOKEA. I see BOWDLER´S MAGIC a
horse to avoid with his absence. Other obvious negatives
include LOVERS CAUSEWAY and MONTPARNASSE
neither running well enough last time. I dont want a filly
first time out so CHILLY FILLY's out. Seasonal debutant
HANOVERIAN BARON doesnt offer me enough. These
are horses I wouldnt want to be with. I think THE FONZ
offers as much as anything and prefer him over the rest.


Newbury 2.10

100/30 Rumh, 7/2 Dancing Rain, 11/2 Devastation
6/1 Izzi Top, 7/1 Mohedian Lady, 7/1 Stella Point
10/1 Secret Love, 16/1 Miss Diagnosis, 20/1 Byrony.

The Swettenham Stud Fillies Trial is for 3 year old fillies over 10f and its a Listed Class race. Long history and its a race where only hunches and assumptions exist. I had a look at horses from 2yo maidens and only 1 past winner did that and she had 1 run. It took RUMH 3 runs to win her maiden and that worries me. MOHEDIAN LADY is
also from a 2yo maiden with more than 1 career start as
are MISS DIAGNOSIS and DEVASTATION. BYRONY is more exposed than every past winner. I dont want to be with STELLA POINT beaten in a maiden last time.

* SECRET LOVE - Neutral profile hard to read
* DANCING RAIN - Comes from a key trial race
* The 2005 and 2008 winners won the same maiden
* They were very lightly raced as she is
* IZZI TOP - comes from a very good trial race
* DANCING RAIN - IZZI TOP stand out to me
* IZZI TOP has a fine chance assuming the ground is ok
* DANCING RAIN won an excellent trial maiden
* The 2nd and 3rd have come out and won next time
* She missed the Pretty Polly Stakes as it came too soon
* This is her Oaks Trial and I favour her
* IZZI TOP 7/1 a reasonable saver
* DANCING RAIN a win bet at 7/2



Newmarket 2.20

100/30 Protractor, 4/1 Obsession, 9/2 Ferruccio
5/1 Korngold, 10/1 Elusivity, 10/1 Iron Step
14/1 Focail Maith, 14/1 Uncle Dermot, 16/1 Hackett
33/1 May Be Some Time, 33/1 Warden Bond.

This is a Mile Handicap for 0-75 rated horses. There are
205 similar races at this time of year. There's strength in
depth her which is a shame. FERRUCCIO is the obvious
negative starting 80/1 in a Maiden last time but that has
been reflected in the market and he is drifting. I was not
too keen on ELUSIVITY's profile. I think the high draws
have plenty to prove and could be disadvantaged and that
hurts HACKETT as well. There are several that come out
with reasonable profiles. IRON STEP and KORNGOLD do
have profiles like past winners. OBSESSION is also one to
consider. The main issue is whether PROTRACTOR with
1 career start is going to have the class to beat a 0-75 on
only his second start. Horses with 1 career start do well.

* In 205 races horses racing once before are 5-8
* Those like PROTRACTOR from 3yo maidens were 3-5
* The record in this race of horses doing that were 1-1
* PROTRACTOR was expensive and must be respected

Statistically there are strong clues to suggest that despite just one career start PROTRACTOR could have the class to outclass this field. It wont be easy as OBSESSION sets a decent standard and there are other positives. Market vibes are heavily against PROTRACTOR drifting from
7/2 to 8/1. Sometimes you ignore that sometimes not in this case as he has been absent 8 weeks it bothers me.
I feel the best option is OBSESSION.




York 2.30

7/2 Duncan, 4/1 Native Ruler, 9/2 Manighar
6/1 Askar Tau, 15/2 Clowance, 8/1 Electrolyser
12/1 Free Agent, 20/1 Blue Bajan, 25/1 Buxted.

The Yorkshire Cup is strange this year as no 4 year olds
are running. It's never been a great race statistically and
without 4 year olds it gets no easier. CLOWANCE is not
like any past winner going up from 10f. I looked at how
horses with 1 run this season got on. Those that are aged
5 or more all had at least 9 runs and NATIVE RULER is
short of runs (6) and the ones like him from 12f or under
all had at least 13 runs. NATIVE RULER doesnt have a
profile of any past winner. I'd avoid this pair. My choice
would be one fromm DUNCAN - MANIGHAR or Sagaro
Stakes winner ASKAR TUA. Tight choice and depends
on how ASKAR TUA gets on back in Distance and also
how DUNCAN gets on up in distance. DUNCAN looks
slightly more interesting to me.


Newbury 2.40

7/1 But Beautiful, 8/1 Mauritino, 8/1 Moresweets ´n Lace
9/1 Buddy Holly, 10/1 Ede´s Dot Com, 10/1 Lisahane Bog
10/1 One Hit Wonder, 10/1 Phonic, 12/1 Burza
12/1 Ocean Of Peace, 12/1 Waahej, 14/1 Morning Chief
14/1 Roe Valley, 16/1 Bold Cross, 20/1 Golden Prospect
20/1 Regional Counsel.

* This is a 10f Handicap for 0-70 rated horses
* Newbury had 16 renewals of this race
* There are 238 similar races elsewhere
* BUT BEAUTIFUL is a 4yo filly from 8f
* 4yo fillies scored badly in this race and none came from 8f
* In 238 other races they have a 3-111 record
* All 3 winners had much more backclass than her
* PHONIC comes out badly
* ONE HIT WONDER - Unsafe from a 3yo handicap
* Other horses with very poor profiles include these
* ROE VALLEY - BOLD CROSS - REGIONAL COUNSEL
* BURZA - GOLDEN PROSPECT
* EDE´S DOT COM - Not overkeen
* No selection. These are the horses I want to avoid


Newmarket 2.50

11/10 Skip Along, 5/1 Spectacle, 6/1 Rose Of Sarratt
8/1 Schism, 12/1 Supreme Seductress, 16/1 Magical Flower
20/1 Astromagick, 20/1 Compassion, 25/1 Crassula.

* This is a 12f maiden for 3yo fillies
* There are just 21 similar races in May
* These 21 races point to SKIP ALONG winning
* First of all none of the 21 winners came from 7f or less
* SPECTACLE and SCHISM both have to do this
* Unraced horses have a 0-20 record in these races
* ROSE OF SARRATT has that against her
* SKIP ALONG is short at 4/5 but has the profile to win
* Horses from 3yo maidens over 10f with 1 career start
* Those beaten under 4 lengths in that race were 4-9
* SKIP ALONG looks the likely winner to me


York 3.00

11/10 Theyskens´ Theory, 4/1 Flood Plain
7/1 Emma´s Gift, 8/1 Primevere, 10/1 Sweetie Time
12/1 Mystic Dream, 16/1 Askaud, 20/1 Sylvestris
33/1 Wrekin Sunset, 100/1 Adaria.

The Michael Seely Stakes is for 3yo fillies over a mile and
we have just 5 past renewals of this race. What this race is showing after 5 renewals is that all winners had between 4 and 8 career starts. None were less experienced than that. None came from maidens of any kind or handicaps and it is best to stay with horses from conditions races. I should avoid WREKIN SUNSET - SYLVESTRIS -ADARIA from
Maidens. PRIMEVERE and MYSTIC DREAM have raced just twice and are worryingly lightly raced. ASKAUD looks wrong from a 3yo handicap. I'd oppose these horses. Hard to choose from the remaining 4 horses all looking fine so I have to put all 4 on the following shortlist.

Theyskens' Theory - Flood Plain - Emma's Gift - Sweetie Time

Selection - FLOOD PLAIN each way



Newbury 3.10

3/1 Seelo, 4/1 Census 7/1 Diamond Vision
7/1 El Mansour, 9/1 Cadore 10/1 Viking Storm
20/1 L´hermitage.

* This is a 3yo Handicap over 11f
* Newbury have 7 renewals of this race
* There are 4 similar races elsewhere
* All 7 Newbury winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* DIAMOND VISION only has 1 career start
* Horses from 3yo maidens like him won 5 races
* None of these had just one career start
* DIAMOND VISION isn't for me
* SEELO comes from a 2yo maiden as did 4 winners
* None had under 3 career starts like her
* CADORE - 1 similar winner
* EL MANSOUR - Unsafe but not a negative
* CENSUS - Positive with 3 runs from a 2yo maiden
* VIKING STORM - Positive

SELECTION

CENSUS


Newmarket 3.25

100/30 Shallow Bay, 7/2 Vita Nova, 9/2 Lunar Victory
8/1 Aktia, 10/1 First Post, Incendo, 12/1 Snoqualmie Star
16/1 Ellemujie, 16/1 Ramona Chase, 20/1 Significant Move
20/1 Tindaro, 33/1 Mr Willis.

* This is a 10f Handicap for horses rated 0-89
* VITA NOVA is favourite but a filly with 2 career starts
* There are 207 similar races at this time of year
* No fillies won with only 2 career starts
* I looked at all handicaps in class 2-3-4 at any distance
* No Fillies in the Month of May won with 2 career starts
* I looked at 4yo fillies from 3yo handicaps in all 10f races
* I found a 0-21 record with horses like that
* VITA NOVA fails that and doesnt look safe to me
* All fillies that won first time out were different
* They all had form in at least a Class 2 race before
* VITA NOVA lacks that and I'd look elsewhere
* AKTIA is wrong as a 4yo filly first time out
* She looks a bit too exposed and lacks backclass
* SNOQUALMIE STAR comes out badly
* I dont see any of the outsiders winning
* INCENDO has 1 run this year down from 12f
* I was unimpressed with his profile and he isnt for me
* FIRST POST - Scrapes in as just about ok
* ELLEMUJIE - Not convinced he did enough last time
* Looking really at opposing VITA NOVA
* She has been gambled and will be fancied
* On her profile she is too short around 5/2
* SHALLOW BAY has a decent profile
* I find it hard to read his stable though
* LUNAR VICTORY has a reasonable profile
* I'd have liked a slightly more recent run
* LUNAR VICTORY each way would be my choice



York 3.35

5/1 Jamaican Bolt, 6/1 Apace, 7/1 Manoori, 8/1 Gottcher
8/1 Mr Optimistic, 10/1 Swiss Dream, 11/1 Barnet Fair
11/1 Oh So Kool, 14/1 Eland Ally, 14/1 Mandy´s Hero
14/1 Millyluvstobouggie, 14/1 Thirteen Shivers
16/1 Captain Kolo, 20/1 Berberana, 20/1 Defence Council
25/1 Diamond Vine, 28/1 Sacrosanctus, 33/1 Insolenceofoffice 33/1 Style And Panache, 40/1 Bellemere.

This is a ridiculous 3yo Handicap over 5f. All I can begin
to do is look at the 4 past winners and what these 4 had in
common and I will get a shortlist based on that.

* All 4 winners had at least 5 career starts
* They all ran within a Month
* They all came from 3yo handicaps over 5f
* They all finished 1st or 2nd in that race
* This leaves a shortlist of 3 horses
* SWISS DREAM - wouldnt be my first choice
* MILLYLUVSTOBOUGGIE - Decent profile
* MR OPTIMISTIC - Decent profile
* MR OPTIMISTIC is my best guess here



York 4.10

6/1 Hoof It, 7/1 Horseradish, 7/1 Irish Heartbeat
7/1 Our Jonathan, 12/1 Docofthebay, 12/1 Edinburgh Knight
12/1 Enderby Spirit, 14/1 Kaldoun Kingdom, 14/1 Tajneed
16/1 Flipando, 16/1 Medicean Man, 16/1 Swilly Ferry
20/1 Cheveton, 20/1 Mister Hughie, 20/1 Star Rover
25/1 Damika, 25/1 Desert Creek, 25/1 Midnight Martini
33/1 Sonny Red, 33/1 Tombi.


* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f
* York has 18 previous renewals
* There are 41 similar races elsewhere
* I would argue the following important in these races
* Avoid horses aged 9 and more
* Horses aged 7 or more have bad records
* Avoid them unless beaten under 4 lengths last time
* Avoid them if they have past Group form before
* Horses from 5f races are weak
* None of these were 4 year olds
* No filly came from a 5f race
* Horses with 1 run this season won 12 races
* None came from 8f or more
* None were absent more than 7 weeks
* 4yo debutants all had under 13 runs and from 6f +
* I would be worried about horses drawn very low
* No Male 4 year old won with 21 or more runs
* Horses from 7f handicaps won 4 races
* Those that wree unexposed doing that were 0-41
* Those aged 4 coming from 7f were 0-35
* HORSERADISH fails both those angles
* 4 year olds with 1 run that year were 2-60
* None of these had 13 or more runs
* OUR JONATHAN - Respectable profile
* EDINBURGH KNIGHT - Respectable profile
* ENDERBY SPIRIT - Respectable profile
* EDINBURGH KNIGHT is my selection
* Taking the chance the draw helps him


Newbury 4.20

2/1 Dinkum Diamond, 3/1 Elzaam, 11/2 Darajaat
7/1 Pabusar, 8/1 Sweet Cecily, 12/1 Cape To Rio
14/1 Bathwick Bear, 20/1 Admirable Spirit
33/1 Button Moon.

* There are 18 renewals of the Carnavon Stakes
* None of the winners had 13 or more starts
* None of the winners came from a 5f race
* BATHWICK BEAR fails both and is too exposed
* PABUSAR - Not like any winners from 5f
* Fillies have a poor 1-36 record in this race
* None won first time like ADMIRABLE SPIRIT
* None had 1 run that year like DARAJAAT
* SWEET CECILY also fails that as a filly with 1 run
* BUTTON MOON doesnt appeal as a filly from a maiden
* CAPE TO RIO - Not quite right
* ELZAAM comes from the 7f Free Handicap
* The 1999 and 2008 winners did the same
* DINKUM DIAMOND sets the standard
* He ran well against older horses last time
* ELZAAM looks his biggest danger
* I prefer ELZAAM as the better option at the prices
* His preparation has been far more typical of past winners
* ELZAAM is the selection



Newmarket 4.35

7/4 Zain Shamardal, 6/1 Muzdahi, 8/1 Maricopa
10/1 Night And Dance, 10/1 Rojo Boy, 10/1 Stage Attraction
20/1 Around The Clock, 25/1 Akrias, 25/1 Neat Sweep
33/1 Cotton Grass, 33/1 Dancerella, 33/1 Dresden, 33/1 Rave
100/1 Who Loves Ya Baby, 100/1 Zaheeb.

This is a Mile Maiden for 3 year olds and a big field of
improvers. ZAIN SHAMARDAL is pretty short and is
clearly the form horse. Not convinced about him here
at such a short price. I looked at all similar races for a
horse from any 3yo handicap. I Found an unimpressive
2-67 record and those with 1 run that season like him
were 0-20 so I dont feel he is unbeatable. I would want
a better profile before I took evens in a 16 runner field
of Newmarket maidens. NIGHT AND DANCE wouldnt
interest me as an unraced filly draw out wide. I would've
risked Polperro but he is a non runner so instead I will
take a chance on MARICOPA each way around 11/2



Newmarket 5.10

3/1 Solemn, 4/1 Osiris Way, 5/1 Brynfa Boy
6/1 Desert Strike, 8/1 Bertoliver, 8/1 Billy Red
10/1 Fantasy Explorer, 12/1 Brandywell Boy.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-83 rated horses
* There are 189 similar races at this time of year
* DESERT STRIKE was my bet last Saturday at Thirsk
* He comes down in distance today
* I looked at all exposed horses doing that
* Those with form only in Class 4 or lower struggled
* I found just 2 winners and both were 4 year olds
* Those aged 5 or more like him were 0-38
* DESERT STRIKE doesnt come out well
* OSIRIS WAY is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* I looked at horses aged 7 or more first time out
* These horses had a dissapointing 2-87 record
* He was one of those winners last year at Goodwood
* Both winners were 8 though and he is 9
* I think he has a lot to prove as old as he is first time
* I divide Seasonal debutants into 2 groups
* Those absent less and more than 7 months
* BRYNFA BOY has been absent over 7 months
* Only 4 winners managed that in a 4-151 record
* None had won in many years though
* All 4 had more backclass than he does
* BRYNFA BOY's absence worries me a lot
* He was beaten in this race last year (2nd)
* He had less weight last year and a recent run as well
* BRANDYWELL BOY - comes out badly with absences
* FANTASY EXPLORER - Not like any winner
* BILLY RED - Couldnt match him to a winner
* BERTOLIVER - Wanted a better last run
* I have found 1 similar winner with a bit less weight
* Unimpressive overall but he isnt a negative
* SOLEMN - Has a reasonably solid profile
* Not strong in the market but he comes out best
* SOLEMN would be my choice.


E V E N I N G C A R D S


Not much I can do tonight with Time running out.

I did not like Newcastle's card much with not many
races there I could sort out. I did find a good record
of mares like PETELLA winning recently in similar
2m Handicaps and although short felt she might win.

I scanned the 8.20pm. I felt KING OF EDEN has an
unimpressive profile winning last time at 6f and now
going up in distance. I see him as too short given his
modest profile. My angles say LEVIATHAN should
be avoided. DUBAI DYNAMO looked best on paper
to me but I would prefer a high draw and Stall 3 does
not really look as safe as I'd have liked. NEW LEYF
is almost right but not quite lacking backclass. From
these horses I personally prefer DUBAI DYNAMO.


Hamilton 8.00

NVT & Commvault First Dash Charity Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-75) 1m65y

7/2 Take It To The Max, 4/1 Shabak Hom, 9/2 Euston Square
13/2 Call Of Duty, 13/2 Casino Night, 8/1 Bold Marc
9/1 Key Breeze, 12/1 Dabbers Ridge, 20/1 Eternal Instinct
33/1 Arabian Pride.


* This is a 0-76 Handicap over a Mile
* There are 207 similar races at this time of year
* TAKE IT TO THE MAX is a negative
* I looked at 4yo seasonal debutants
* Those with 9 or more career starts were 1-117
* ETERNAL INSTINCT - Negative from 6f and 1 run
* ARABIAN PRIDE - Negative
* DABBERS RIDGE - Aged 9 too much against him
* BOLD MARC - Asking a lot to follow up a win
* No horse aged 8 or more managed it and he's 9

Shortlist

* CALL OF DUTY - Lack of backclass worries me
* CASINO NIGHT - Respected. Mare. Better profiles exist
* KEY BREEZE - Positive
* EUSTON SQUARE - Complicated profile 1 similar winner

SELECTION

* SHABAK HOM is 4 with 1 run this season
* He comes down from 10f and has 9-12 career starts
* Similar male 4 year olds running within a Month are 2-3




Newcastle 8.30

3/1 Rhal, 4/1 Dispol Kylie, 9/2 Red Roar
11/2 Carrie´s Magic, Arriva La Diva, 9/1 Foreign Rhythm
10/1 Hansomis, 16/1 These Dreams, 20/1 Tabiet.

* This is a Fillies handicap over 5f
* Newcastle has 12 renewals of this race
* There has been 33 similar races in May
* 30 of the 33 winners had a recent race within a month
* FOREIGN RHYTHM - HANSOMIS fail that
* TABIET - THESE DREAMS fail that
* DISPOL KYLIE is exposed with 1 run this year
* There are better profiles here
* ARRIVA LA DIVA - 1 run this year but little backclass
* That means I cant match her to any winners
* RHAL comes from a 3yo handicap
* Horses doing that with 7 or more runs are 0-26
* CARRIE´S MAGIC - Respected but not safe
* RED ROAR - Good profile bad stable
* RED ROAR has the best profile statistically
* I wish she hadnt as Alan Berry trains her

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