No Strong Bet Today

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T o d a y ' s S e l e c t i o n s

No Bet Today

Like many I will probably play all my Ascot bets in
each race to small stakes. No shortage of options if
anyone wants to bet there but until I get some insight
about the ground and draw happy to just leave Ascot
off the list of selections but will play each race small.

Thirsk has 5 races in the message. Not my favourite
track but I have been pushed into certain directions
today. I am betting ROOKNRASBRYRIPPLE 3/1 +
in the 1.45pm. I'd have liked 4/1 each way or maybe
an each way double with him in it. Possibly too short
at 3/1 for anything other than a win bet but I felt He
was a horse I should bet today with only 1 real danger.

A Confusing 2.50 throws up Kames Park at 20/1 and
thats a big enough price to throw away a small bet on.
I was also surprised TOBY TYLER 10/1 comes out a
horse worth betting in the 4.05pm. I plan to bet him
as well. A Lack of knowledge about Ascot and how it
runs today and a lack of Trust in my angles at Thirsk
and how well I read the course leave me going without
a selection today but that will change as the week goes
on and like many I will bet in most of the Ascot races.


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M e s s a g e T h o u g h t s


Day 1 of Royal Ascot. I intend to pay full deference
to the meeting and do what I can when I can but not
to the cost of other meetings which I intend to cover.


Really it is a day to find things out and get questions
answered. Things like just how soft the ground rides
and what if any advantage there is in the Draw. It is
unclear to everyone what the Draw will tell us today.


Frankel runs but is too short to bet. There are also a
host of Australian and American Sprinters we do not
know anything about and the usual massive fields and
with the Draw and Ground you can see any options I
have are limited and its an information gathering day.


Full message today. I've done 5 races at THIRSK and
5 races at ASCOT today. The issues at Ascot are just
obvious. There are some interesting horses at Thirsk
much as the track has never treated me that kindly
so I will be interested how I will get on there today.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


T H I R S K 1.45

2/1 First Bid, 100/30 Rooknrasbryripple, 5/1 Justine Time
6/1 Blue Belle Lady, 7/1 Umph, 10/1 Come On Dave
14/1 Beechey´s Beauty, 20/1 Low Pastures, 50/1 Johansen
100/1 Ruskins View, 100/1 Tiny Tittle.

This is a 6f Selling race. In recent years unraced Males are 0-68 in all June selling races then latest being a favourite who lost last night. Unraced males have no sex allowance so I'd avoid COME ON DAVE and LOW PASTURES. I'm
opposing JUSTINE TIME as fillies from 5f sellers all ran
at least 3 times before and she hasn't and was beaten quite
a long way for a seller. BEECHEY´S BEAUTY hasnt done
enough yet. I see 4 options one standing out most of all

UMPH - Ok but I'd have liked a better run last time
BLUE BELLE LADY - Unraced fillies can win
FIRST BID - 1 similar winner - reasonable - unsure of draw

Selection

ROOKNRASBRYRIPPLE just Shades it for me. I like
the experience and the recent run. Possibly had a bad
draw at Yarmouth last time. Her run was probably just
a bit dissapointing. I give her a chance to bounce back.





A S C O T 2.30

5/4 Canford Cliffs, 11/8 Goldikova, 13/2 Cape Blanco
16/1 Cityscape, 20/1 Rio De La Plata, 40/1 Ransom Note
100/1 Flash Dance.

The Queen Anne Stakes is a Group 1 race over a mile.
This years race looks a mouth watering contest and it
looks between last years winner GOLDIKOVA and the
younger top class CANFORD CLIFFS. I wasnt keen on
betting anything else. CAPE BLANCO drops from 11f
to 8f which is not the norm by any means and I didn't
want to bet a horse in a Group 1 race that has not ever
run at the distance before especially taking on top class
proven Group 1 winners at the distance. There will not
much between CANFORD CLIFFS or GOLDIKOVA so
hard to choose. It will probably be sorted out tactically
which doesn't help anyone. The record of 4 year olds
like CANFORD CLIFFS is better than the record of 6
year olds. Older horses aged 6 or more last won this in
1976. That said not too many were fancied and none
were in GOLDIKOVA's class and with the ground like
it is she will probably appreciate it more of the pair.

SELECTION - GOLDIKOVA




T H I R S K 2.50

4/1 Easy Terms, 4/1 Tribal Myth, 6/1 Shernando
13/2 Saint Thomas, 8/1 Danceintothelight, 10/1 Lady Chaparral 10/1 Sirgarfieldsobers, 12/1 Amazing Blue Sky
14/1 Pertemps Networks, 14/1 Royal Trooper20/1 Kames Park
20/1 Shaloo Diamond, 50/1 Tayacoba.

* This is a 12f handicap for 0-80 rated horses
* There are 219 similar races at this time of year
* Not too sure about the draw
* Recent races suggest a High Draw is a good advantage
* Go back a bit further in time and that evens out
* Probably prefer a higher draw if given the choice
* SHERNANDO wouldn't be my first choice
* He is not impressive down from 14f and 1 run this year
* Horses aged 4 with 13 or more runs won many races
* None were absent more than 7 weeks though
* DANCEINTOTHELIGHT fails that
* I dont like TAYACOBA
* ROYAL TROOPER is absent too long
* SHALOO DIAMOND is absent too long
* LADY CHAPARRAL -doesn't offer me enough
* SIRGARFIELDSOBERS -didnt do enough last time
* PERTEMPS NETWORKS - Not enough last time

P o s s i b l e s

* TRIBAL MYTH is difficult to read
* EASY TERMS is difficult to read
* Both are 4 and won 10f handicaps last time
* 4 year olds doing that were just 1-12
* That winner had only 3 runs and both have more
* Both are unsafe but not enough evidence to be negatives
* KAMES PARK is 9 and well beaten last time
* The only horses winning his age ran much better
* That said in last years race he lost by 3 lengths
* That was badly drawn and off a 11lbs higher mark
* He could easily a place and he is well handicapped
* SAINT THOMAS - Average profile. Could be placed
* AMAZING BLUE SKY - Very hard to read

S E L E C T I O N

Way out of my comfort zone here. I will take a
chance on KAMES PARK 20/1 each way.




A S C OT 3.05

4/1 Star Witness, 7/1 Sole Power, 8/1 Kingsgate Native
12/1 Astrophysical Jet, 12/1 Bridgetown, 12/1 Overdose
14/1 Prohibit, 14/1 Sweet Sanette, 14/1 War Artist
16/1 Swiss Diva, Tangerine Trees, 25/1 Group Therapy
25/1 Holiday For Kitten, 25/1 Monsieur Chevalier
25/1 Rose Blossom, 33/1 Mar Adentro, 40/1 Arctic
40/1 Iver Bridge Lad, 50/1 Stone Of Folca.

* The King's Stand is a Group 1 sprint over 5f
* There has been 20 renewals since 1990
* I would Avoid horses with 1 run this season
* I went back to 1990 to find how many runs winners had
* The following is the number of runs each winner had
* Thats the number of runs since January 1st that year
* 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 Fto 2 2 4 3 3 3 2 2 Fto Fto 3 3
* The last 8 winners had 3-4 runs that season
* I think we have to avoid horses with 1 run that year
* KINGSGATE NATIVE fails that
* MONSIEUR CHEVALIER fails that
* ASTROPHYSICAL JET fails that
* I would avoid horses aged 8 or more
* None have won since my records started in 1979
* WAR ARTIST fails that and is rejected
* Horses aged 3 have won 5 renewals since 1990
* None of these dropped from 6f races
* HOLIDAY FOR KITTEN fails that
* No 3yo had 1-2 runs that year
* STONE OF FOLCA fails that
* Fillies aged 4 had a 0-25 record in this race
* ROSE BLOSSOM fails that
* SWEET SANETTE is a filly absent 66 days
* No filly won with that absence if running this season
* No older filly has won this first time out
* SWISS DIVA fails that and looks vulnerable
* TANGERINE TREES may not lack the class
* He is 6 and exposed and has No Group 1 form
* Beaten in his only Group 2 he isnt good enough
* GROUP THERAPY is exposed and No Group 1 form
* Beaten in every race beyond Class 2 he looks wrong

Shortlist

* PROHIBIT - chance if his draw helps
* SOLE POWER - His Temple Stakes win shortlists him
* Connections say he may not run if its soft
* OVERDOSE was a dissapointing favourite in the Temple Stakes
* He could improve on that but he will need to
* Foreign horses could dominate this race.
* STAR WITNESS is Australian as were 4 recent winners
* BRIDGETOWN will be a big runner from USA
* Impossible to make a serious judgement here
* The Usa/Australians have to also handle softer ground

Selection

PROHIBIT 12/1 Win Bet

* I also quite like a Match Bet
* Sole Power to beat Kingsgate Native

I have gone for PROHIBIT. Mainly because
he is the fittest horse in the race and has got
a recent run. Also because he handles cut and
isnt isolated on either rail. Wide open race.




T H I R S K 3.25

3/1 Dhhamaan, 9/2 Materialism, 5/1 Elusive Sue
6/1 Viking Warrior, 10/1 Downtown Boy, 10/1 Gracie´s Gift
12/1 Big Slick, 12/1 No Quarter, 14/1 Hard Rock City
20/1 Strong Knight, 33/1 Gypsy Style, 33/1 Little Pete.

* This is a 0-70 handicap over 7f
* There are 225 similar races at this time of year
* Horses aged 3 from 6f races were 1-59
* That winner had 9 runs MATERIALISM has just 4
* MATERIALISM doesnt appeal
* BIG SLICK profile coming from 6f
* STRONG KNIGHT weak profile down 2f
* GYPSY STYLE - Didnt do enough last time
* LITTLE PETE - Didnt offer enough
* HARD ROCK CITY - Poor profile aged 11
* DOWNTOWN BOY - Too much to do aged 3
* GRACIE´S GIFT - Aged 9 I feel he needs more runs this year
* I looked at 4yo fillies from 7f handicaps
* Those with 9 + career runs were 1-83
* That winner had 9 runs that year and won last time
* ELUSIVE SUE only has 3 runs and didnt
* ELUSIVE SUE doesnt come out as well as I'd want

S h o r t l i s t

* VIKING WARRIOR Statistically wrong aged 4 from seller
* Ignore that and he becomes acceptable
* NO QUARTER - Borderline profile but just ok
* DHHAMAAN - Acceptable profile

SELECTION - DHHAMAAN




A S C OT 3.45

1/3 Frankel, 8/1 Excelebration, 12/1 Dream Ahead
12/1 Wootton Bassett, Dubawi Gold, 16/1 Grand Prix Boss
20/1 Zoffany, 66/1 Neebras, 150/1 Rerouted.

The St James Palace looks a race to watch rather than bet
in with FRANKEL who looked astonishing in the Guineas
comes out and tries to cement his position as the best 3yo
of the year. Far too short a price for me. I was one of the
many that felt his hard race in the Guineas could really be
a problem and I wouldnt bet him at the price after such a
hard race. Not easy to find alternatives. No winners of
this race won first time out in ages so DREAM AHEAD
doesn't do it for me. EXCELEBRATION'S already been
beaten by Frankel as has DUBAWI GOLD and their only
chance is that the favourite underperforms. I could make
a case for WOOTTON BASSETT after a bad drawn when
runnig in France but he hasnt yet proven his stamina and
this wont be his best ground. I think FRANKEL ought to
win. Looking at place only or without the favourite bets
in the race I don't see a clear cut choice especially when
stamina doubts exist about some. There is a doubt about
WOOTON BASSET staying. He did win twice as a 2yo
over 7f on soft ground so asking him to stay a mile isnt
unreasonable. His run in France over a Mile came from
the worst draw when conceeding a fitness edge to every
other runner in the race. He wasnt beaten far at all and
in a small field he is the one horse that could shake up
the favourite. I like WOOTON BASSET for all novelty
bets and see him as the biggest threat to FRANKEL.




T H I R S K 4.05

11/4 Silly Gilly, 7/2 Beckermet, 13/2 Lindoro
8/1 Pelmanism, 8/1 Toby Tyler, 9/1 Diablo Dancer
12/1 Angaric, 12/1 Come And Go, 12/1 Crocodile Bay
14/1 Sea Crest, 66/1 Velvet Band.

This is division 2 of the 7f handicap. There are 225 similar races at this time of year. VELVET BAND is outclassed so rejected. No winners like DIABLO DANCER came from a 6f maiden. None like SEA CREST came from a 5f race. I'd oppose CROCODILE BAY not doing enough last time out.
ANGARIC doesnt appeal aged 8 first time out. I looked at
4 year olds like PELMANISM that came from 6f handicaps
with 13 or more career starts. I found a weak 3-146 record
and none were as exposed as he is none beaten as far either
and none with his weight so PELMANISM is rejected. I'm
not convinced by COME AND GO down in trip but beaten
a long way last time with just two runs this year. I found a 1-39 record with similar horses with that winner older and having more backclass. LINDORO also comes from being
beaten a long way and I couldnt match him to a winner of
any of the 255 races and see him as unsafe. SILLY GILLY
is a 8yo mare and very lightly raced this season. Her age is the reason I can't match her to any winners but so few 8yo mares run in these races I see her more as a neutral profile.

S h o r t l i s t

* SILLY GILLY - Neutral profile but she is unsafe
* BECKERMET is 9 and comes up in distance.
* A good recent run and backclass just get him shortlisted
* TOBY TYLER - More than happy with his profile

SELECTION

Win Bet TOBY TYLER 10/1 +
Saver Bet BECKERMET 4/1





A S C O T 4.25

4/1 Mezmaar, 5/1 Power, 7/1 Gatepost, 14/1 Commissar
14/1 Roman Soldier, 14/1 Trumpet Major, 16/1 Brocklebank
16/1 Fulbright, 16/1 Italo, 16/1 St Barths, 20/1 B Fifty Two 20/1 Gabrial, 20/1 Rebellious Guest, 25/1 Campanology
25/1 Chandlery, 25/1 North Star Boy, 33/1 Evervescent
33/1 Jack Who´s He, 50/1 Barolo Top, 50/1 Lethal Force
66/1 Mitchum, 66/1 Pride And Joy, 100/1 Red Aggressor.

The Coventry Stakes is over 6f for 2 year olds. Impossible
race on the face of it. Richard Hughes was saying the other
day that there is no stand out candidate this year and it was wide open and he will know a lot more about the crop this year of juveniles. Personally I want to oppose MEZMAAR
Partly on his foaling date as an April 29th Foal. Going back 20 years the youngest winner was Dilum (1991) who was a week older than he is. My second reason is that there were 4 winners of this that were foaled in April in the previous 20 years. All 4 of these winners had ran twice or more. It's not been won by a late foal with 1 run and MEZMAAR has just one run. My final reason is the Draw as I think there is probably no advantage being isolated on the rail. Therefore with 3 interesting facts against him MEZMAAR is rejected. Other horses foaled late with one run are BROCKLEBANK and REBELLIOUS GUEST. I would demand a winner last time out as its very rare in this race when the winner failed to win last time. That mainly just takes out rank outsiders though. COMMISSAR doesnt make the shortlist as he has 2 runs and comes from 5f but thats a weak angle that has been broken recently and I already have a full up shortlist.

* POWER and FULBRIGHT look options
* POWER comes from a Listed race
* FULBRIGHT comes from a Lsited race
* No past winners did that before
* I do not like the fact I can't match them
* ROMAN SOLDIER - No reason why he cant go well
* ST BARTHS - No reason why he cant go well
* TRUMPET MAJOR - No reason why he cant go well
* ITALO - North American horse - must be respected
* GATEPOST - Won a good trial similar to 2 past winners

Best Bets In The Race

* Match bet Power to beat Mezmaar
* Place Bet on POWER 11/10 +



T H I R S K 4.40

3/1 She´s A Character, 7/2 Imaginary World
4/1 Amethyst Dawn, 9/2 Clumber Place, 10/1 Out Of Nothing
10/1 Snow Magic, 12/1 Totally Ours, 14/1 Dan´s Martha.

* This is a Fillies Handicap over a Mile
* Only 37 similar races at this time of year
* The following horses had P o o r Profiles
* OUT OF NOTHING aged 8 and 1 run this year
* CLUMBER PLACE is an older horse from 7f
* No horse aged 5 + did that and she has just 1 run this year
* SNOW MAGIC is unsafe down in trip with absence
* DAN´S MARTHA - Looks vulnerable with 3 runs
* TOTALLY OURS - Hasnt shown enough this year

SHORTLIST

* AMETHYST DAWN -Just about ok
* SHE´S A CHARACTER is 4 and has 20 career starts
* 4 year olds with 13 + runs won 4 races
* None of these came from 8f handicaps (0-15)
* Probably a statistical blip but a small worry
* No Selection




A S C O T 5.00

4/1 Junior, 9/2 Zigato, 11/2 Veiled, 10/1 Ashbrittle
12/1 Plymouth Rock, 12/1 Rattan, 16/1 Australia Day
16/1 Sunwise, 20/1 Desert Sea, 20/1 Ermyn Lodge
20/1 Tyrrells Wood, 22/1 Palomar, 25/1 Becausewecan
25/1 La Estrella, 33/1 Alsadaa, 33/1 Yorgunnabelucky
40/1 Blizzard Blues, 40/1 Private Story, 50/1 Phoenix Flight 50/1 Unleashed.

* The Ascot Stakes is a marathon 2m 4f handicap
* I have looked at the last 20 winners of this race
* No past winners were aged 9 or more
* PALOMAR fails that
* Horses from 12f or shorter are opposable
* Only 1 of the last 21 winners came from 12f or under.
* LA ESTRELLA - BECAUSEWECAN fail that
* SUNWISE - BLIZZARD BLUES fail that
* YORGUNNABELUCKY also fails that
* Mares have a 1-66 record in this race
* That winner prepped at 2 Miles
* VEILED is the only mare in the race
* VEILED comes from 14f and isnt for me
* I would avoid the seasonal debutants
* AUSTRALIA DAY - TYRRELLS WOOD fail that
* DESERT SEA is wrong exposed with an absence
* UNLEASHED is wrong with an absence
* PHOENIX FLIGHT - PRIVATE STORY are outclassed
* RATTAN - Not for me aged 6 with an absence
* ALSADAA is underraced this year
* ASHBRITTLE is 4 with 1 run this season
* There were 5 winners like that but all had Class 2 form
* ASHBRITTLE lacks that and may not be classy enough
* ZIGATO - I would prefer more backclass
* JUNIOR won this race last year with 9st
* He must go well but only 1 winner was as old as him
* That horse had a more recent run and less weight
* PLYMOUTH ROCK has enough to shortlist
* ERMYN LODGE - Solid enough profile and should stay

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

ERMYN LODGE 20/1
PLYMOUTH ROCK 16/1

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