Mathematician 106924-09-2011





No Strong Bet Today


T o d a y 's S e l e c t i o n

1 Bet Today

N e w m a r k e t 5.00

(8) GOLDEN DESERT 16/1

Each Way Bet


* Do not mix the name up with another horse
* Another horse in the same race has a similar name.
* The bet is Number 8 on the card Golden Desert


I've gone with GOLDEN DESERT and He is one of
those bets that you know is unsafe but his price does
compensate for that. He is knocking in a bit aged 7
and hasn't won for 2 years and it's not hard to see a
couple of younger horses beating him. That said it's
a race with a lot of good negatives. There are some
very good reasons why he might win this race. I see
promise in his last run where I flagged him up before
the race at 20/1. He ran well last time and although
I wouldnt have tipped him at 8/1 the 16/1 is far too
big as is the 20/1 on Betfair so going with him today.


Lots of shortlists today. There are a few races that
I have left dangling a bit deliberately. Looking for
other bets I would have from the message. It does
go against the grain but I suggest a horse at odds on.

Chester 2.30 - SELF CENTRED 1/2

It will be embarrasing if she loses but I cant oppose
her from a Class 2 handicap in a maiden when her
main rival is unraced. I think 1/2 is a big price. I'm
also confident my Chester 3.35pm selections are a
reasonably safe bet for those who dont mind betting
two odds on horses in the same race win and place.

I should be competetive in the 4.10pm and 4.45pm
races at Chester as well and would consider them as
races to highlight from the message. Plenty to read
and think about. Selection wise I will expect a losing
day because we are on a 20/1 chance but I do think
he has a much better chance than it may first seem.


M e s s a g e T h o u g h t s

Saturday and plenty of big fields handicaps today. Much
of it will be out of bounds. NEWMARKET has a horrible
card much of it nicked from Ascot but I will cherry pick
a couple of things there. RIPON is always a hard track to
bet winners at and I've virtually nothing there today. The
HAYDOCK card is all massive fields. CHESTER has one
or two races I can try to sort out. The theme seems to be
Big Fields today so I don't want to sucked in to some races.


I'm previewing the races I like and following them through
to the end. Some races may just be a bit too ambitious and
I just want to make a few comments in these and throw in
a bit of analysis and leave it up to you if you want to take the race any further. Should be a difficult balance of Races I think we can get right and offering you something for a few other races if you want these. That's the plan anyway.


Yesterday it wasn't a long message and I didn't have much
to choose from. Im just highlighted a Nap from a message
I was always going to struggle with. Silvas Romana ran 2nd
but I suggested an each way bet at around 8/1 and there was
not much wrong with her run so just a small profit there.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


H a y d o c k 1.40

* This is a 2yo Fillies Maiden over a mile
* John Dunlop has a very good 6-10 record in this race
* That makes BALADY very interesting
* Personally I see BALADY as a neutral
* Her stable are regressing and I hate her draw in stall 2
* She wouldnt be my selection but she isnt a negative
* Haydoch have 17 past renewals of this race
* Unraced horses have a 1-46 in these a poor return
* I'd be inclined to ignore the unraced horses
* GREAT HEAVENS - OOJOOBA are passed over
* I'd want a fancied - experienced - well drawn horse
* I would pick one of these 3 myself
* MISS CAP ESTEL - FORGIVE - CORSETRY
* CORSETRY is hard to predict on the ground
* MISS CAP ESTEL - FORGIVE come from a good trial race
* MISS CAP ESTEL each way looks one option


H a y d o c k 2.15

This is a Fillies Handicap and a huge field and I very much
doubt I will be able to sort this race out. It doesnt help that the very low draws I want to avoid are all outsiders. If you are going to play here the very best of luck. I wouldnt have gone with JAARYAH with 1 run this year. HIDDEN FIRE is out first time out. There are not enough similar races to be able to take a confident view about how horses with big absences get on. I'd see QARAABA as unsafe but wouldn't make her a negative. I'd avoid EL TORBELLINO and also U MSEYAT both from the same race. It Looks too hard.


C h e s t e r 2.30

Very hard to see what can beat SELF CENTERED a
horse placed in a Class 2 Handicap in a Fillies Maiden.
Her market danger is unraced. The 3rd favourite was
unplaced at 50/1 in a maiden last time. I think this is
the days banker and anyone betting short priced accs
should have him as that. I think 1/2 is a good price.


H a y d o c k 2.45

This is a 6f Handicap for 0-89 rated horses. It far too
difficult. Recent results her which included yesterday's
suggest you want to avoid horses drawn 1-2-3-4 so I'd
ignore those. Quasi Congaree - Noverre To Go - West
Coast Dream - We Have A Dream are opposed through
their draws. I see Summerinthecity as unfit. Neither of
Thirteen Shivers or Ballista did enough last time for a
3 year old. I didnt like Baldemar -Whozthecat -Tyfos.
I wouldnt rely on Misplaced Fortune to win again as a
mare as old as she is. I think Valery Borzov will find it
hard. I think the winner is one of these 5 horses.

* Tagula Night - Mass Rally -Esprit De Midas
* Gentle Lord - Layla´s Hero



N e w m a r k e t 3.10

Last year SAHPRESA won this for the second time and
in doing so broke the age stats as the oldest winner and
the most exposed winner. She has to break her own stats
again. Not much I can say about this race but if you gave
me a free bet it would be on ALANZA each way at 3/1 +


R i p o n 3.15

* Not much I can say about this 8f Nursery
* SPIRIT OF THE LAW is just about ok
* I was worried by his lack of backclass
* STATEOS has a good profile and respected
* REPEATER just came out as a bet I prefer


H a y d o c k 3.20

4/1 Cheveton, 6/1 Addictive Dream, 6/1 Confessional
8/1 Marine Commando, 10/1 Master Rooney, 10/1 Racy
10/1 Steps, 12/1 Waffle, 14/1 Fathom Five, 14/1 Foxy Music
14/1 Hazelrigg, 20/1 Judge ´n Jury, 20/1 Secret Witness
20/1 Strike Up The Band, 25/1 Falasteen, 33/1 Rain Delayed.

This is a lethal Class 2 Handicap over 5f. There are 68
similar races at this time of year. I thought STEPS has
a poor profile and I'd avoid him and all the horses that
are bigger prices than he is none of which look as safe
as I'd want. The Draw is a bit of a pig to assess as there
have been mixed results. I see ADDICTIVE DREAM as
probably drawn in the wrong place and I wasnt keen on
his profile either. I feel I should avoid CHEVETON as
he won at 6f last time and I couldnt match him to any
winners. MARINE COMMANDO does not interest me
as 3 year olds have struggled in this race and I was not
keen on his profile. I see RACY as unsafe. I would not
make WAFFLE a negative but I suspect the weight is
going to stop him. FATHOM FIVE lacks a recent run
which puts me off him. HAZELRIGG looks quite high
in the Handicap. I'd respect MASTER ROONEY here.
Overall the best profile is CONFESSIONAL. I do feel
worried about his draw. There have been 2 winners in
similar races here recently drawn 1 so I should be fine
but it does bother me. CONFESSIONAL is similar to
the 2005 winner of this race and on profiles he came
out best of all. I do hope his draw wont kill his chance.


C h e s t e r 3.35

I think DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE should win this maiden
but the market suggests that at 4/5. I shouldn't go wrong
betting him at 4/5 and betting FRUEHLING to place at
4/6 for those covering all bases but for the outright win
I would have to go with DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE.


N e w m a r k e t 3.50

The Cambridgeshire work was sent in Fridays message
leaving only the conclusion today. I didnt have a clue
yesterday and I do not today. I shortlisted 6 yesterday.
If I go with RED GULCH - CRY FURY - SAGRAMOR
it would be because they are shorter prices and not the
rank outsiders my other 3 choices are. In the end I am
just following my angles with no expectations to win.
I will take out PRINCE OF JOHANNE because of the
draw but will throw up if he wins at 50/1. I Shortlist 2

CIRCUMVENT 25/1
CONSTANT CONTACT 50/1



H a y d o c k 3.55

This is a Class 2 Handicap over 14f. There has only
been 15 similar races at this time of year and that is
far too low to draw any conclusions about what may
win this. The statistics of these 14 races show there
are 4 important factors that most past winners had.

* Avoid all exposed horses as they are 0-41
* I would prefer to have 4 or more runs this season
* Horses beaten 6 + Lengths last time had a 0-67 record
* None of the 15 winners dropped from 2m or further
* This leads to a shortlist of 4 horses
* STATUS SYMBOL scrapes on but comes out 4th best
* ARDLUI looks shortlistable
* MOTIVADO has a decent profile
* LEXINGTON BAY has a decent profile
* LEXINGTON BAY - MOTIVADO my 2 against the field



C h e s t e r 4.10

4/1 Mashaaref, 5/1 Swift Alhaarth, 11/2 Las Verglas Star
13/2 Weapon Of Choice, 7/1 Belle Royale, 8/1 Calaf
9/1 Blaise Chorus, 10/1 Groomed, 12/1 Ivan Vasilevich
20/1 Spanish Plume.

This is a trappy 10f Handicap. There have been winners
from high stalls as well as low here so dont assume higher
drawn horses cant win. The horses that have done best in
this race are Males from 10f races in the past month that
carried less than 9st weight. BELLE ROYALE fails those
angles as does the other filly BLAISE CHORUS. I wanted
to avoid WEAPON OF CHOICE going up in distance the
only horse doing that. I feel SWIFT ALHAARTH is one
to avoid as he won at 12f last time an drops back. I didnt
feel IVAN VASILEVICH did enough last time out. I feel
SPANISH PLUME will fail the big the jump from Class 5
to Class 2 when out of the handicap. GROOMED has to
be considered. I would shortlist two horses here.

* LAS VERGLAS STAR - Respected and generally fine
* MASHAAREF - Comes from a very good trial race
* Only 5 past renewals of this race.
* Amazing 3 came from a Conditions race at Doncaster
* MASHAAREF would be my choice and I like the following
* LAS VERGLAS STAR to place with Masharef to win
* Those not wanting that bet MASHAAREF each way


N e w m a r k e t 4.25

* This is a fillies nursery over 7f
* I dont have the weapons here
* Non runners have caused havoc here
* PIMPERNEL is unsafe from a Listed race
* HAWFINCH is unsafe from a Group race
* Just leaving the race with 2 to avoid


H a y d o c k 4.30

7/4 Strident Force, 6/1 Mojave 6/1 Stature
10/1 Curzon Line, 10/1 Touch Gold 16/1 Mazeydd
20/1 Expert Fighter, Paladin 33/1 Kenmay, Tallevu
Theturnofthesun 33/1 Went The Day Well
100/1 Season Spirit Son Of May.

Not much I can say about this 2yo maiden over 8f.
Bearing in mind how unraced horses get on here and
the draw I'd see TOUCH GOLD as having plenty to
prove. I'd worry about STATURE's draw. There is a
case for STRIDENT FORCE but I don't think I can
rely on him. I doubt Micheal Stoute would have sent
him to Brighton last time if he was decent. I have to
guess and mine would be CURZON LINE each way.


C h e s t e r 4.45

4/1 Baby Strange, 9/2 Kyllachy Star, One Scoop Or Two
6/1 Greensward, 7/1 Clockmaker, 10/1 Dubai Dynamo
10/1 Kingscroft, 10/1 Naabegha, 16/1 Atlantis Star
16/1 Kay Gee Be, 20/1 Dubai Hills.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-93 rated horses
* DUBAI HILLS - Not for me exposed with absence
* NAABEGHA - 1 run since May could be unfit
* KINGSCROFT - Dont want exposed 3yo beaten last time
* CLOCKMAKER - Underraced from 6f and poor draw
* KAY GEE BE - Bad draw. 7yo on career high mark
* GREENSWARD - Bad draw and underraced this year

Possibles

* ONE SCOOP OR TWO - Not entirely convinced me
* All horses with his profile achieved more last time
* He also has a career high mark
* BABY STRANGE - Hard to rate but has shown he stays
* Dont like the fact he could be Held up from Stall 1
* That may lead to a lot of traffic problems if that happens

S h o r t l i s t

* DUBAI DYNAMO - Neutral profile but respected
* KYLLACHY STAR - Positive and a big runner
* KYLLACHY STAR each way would be my choice




N e w m a r k e t 5.00

Betfred The Bonus King Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 7f

4/1 Asraab, 13/2 White Frost, 8/1 Bonnie Brae
8/1 Golden Delicious, 10/1 Lutine Bell
12/1 Axiom, 12/1 Mr David, 14/1 Elna Bright
14/1 Gallagher, 16/1 Citrus Star, 16/1 Mia´s Boy
16/1 Woodcote Place, 20/1 Golden Desert
25/1 Space Station, 25/1 Striking Spirit.

* This is a 0-98 handicap over 7 furlongs
* Newmarket has had 22 similar races at this time of year
* There has been 68 similar races at other tracks
* I think the Draw Shows you want a Middle Draw
* I would be worried about horses drawn very low
* I would also be worried about horses drawn very high
* I predict the winner will be drawn between 3 and 14
* STRIKING SPIRIT is not well drawn in Stall 16
* I didnt like him profile at all exposed from 6f
* Not without a recent race
* STRIKING SPIRIT is statistically weak
* ASRAAB could have been better drawn in stall 15
* ASRAAB only has 1 run this season
* Horses doing that in 68 races had a 1-19 record
* That winner was a completely different type
* ASRAAB has a long absence as well and only 3 runs
* Its an Unsafe profile and not a great draw
* I'd be a Fool to discount him from Godolphins
* As an option in this race he doesn't really appeal
* WHITE FROST has a bad draw in Stall 1
* I dont like his profile from a 3yo handicap either
* There were 4 winners doing this
* Those with Under 7 runs that season were 0-48
* WHITE FROST has just 4 runs and I see him as weak
* WOODCOTE PLACE has a bad draw in Stall 14
* I looked at Exposed horss in 68 similar races
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that year were 0-43
* WOODCOTE PLACE has only 4 runs and is 8 years old
* No exposed horse aged 6 won without at least 6 runs
* WOODCOTE PLACE has to be underraced this year
* MIA´S BOY also looks underraced this year
* He is 7 and has had just 4 runs this season
* ELNA BRIGHT won a 5f handicap last time
* More than happy to oppose him doing that
* Especially as an exposed 6 year old and he looks wrong
* AXIOM is 7 and only 2 winners were as old
* I looked at all exposed horss aged 6 or more
* Those without Pattern Class form won just 5 races
* Most of these had more runs that season than him
* None of these carried more than 9st weight as well
* AXIOM has a difficult task from Topweight
* GALLAGHER is very well treated these days
* There is a doubt about what he can achieve these days
* Recently changed stables he ran ok last time
* He is underraced this year though
* Exposed horses from 6f or shorter struggled
* Those that won were rare and all had far more runs
* GALLAGHER falls short for me
* Fillies dont have a great record in these races
* None were absent as long as BONNIE BRAE
* BONNIE BRAE looks wrong as a filly absent 63 days
* Winning last time with that absence worries me
* BONNIE BRAE doesnt offer me enough
* GOLDEN DELICIOUS is a 3yo filly
* These 3yo fillies have a poor record and he isnt for me
* SPACE STATION is an exposed 5yo
* Statistically he is generally fine with no weak areas
* The only question remains has he got the class
* There are some factors that worry me
* SPACE STATION has a career high mark
* He has only ever won in a Class 4 race before
* He needs to produce a career best by some way
* All his wins come on sharp tracks as well
* MR DAVID is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* All 4 year olds with 9-20 runs doing this were 3-83
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were just 1-44
* That winner had much less weight than he does
* None had raced in Group class before like him
* I Dont fancy him but there are better negatives
* Wouldnt be a complete shock but not for me

S h o r t l i s t

* CITRUS STAR is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* All 4 year olds with 9-20 runs doing this were 3-83
* Those with 13-20 runs like him were only 1-59
* All 3 of these unexposed winners were different
* Troubles me he only has 5 runs that season
* I'd like more and I cant match him exactly to a winner
* CITRUS STAR is respected and shortlistable
* I did struggle to find enough I liked

* LUTINE BELL is an exposed 4yo from 7f
* He has Class 2 form and no higher
* I found 4 winners that had that profile in 68 races
* LUTINE BELL was 2nd last time in a tough race
* That was a career best performance
* He has to repeat that today but should go well
* A couple of things worry me
* I think he has plenty of weight for his profile
* There is a chance his last run was a falsely run race
* The 1-2-3 all came from behind that day
* They may have benefitted from the pace of the race
* I wasnt overkeen he has just 1 race in the last 59 days
* Shortlistable but not completely convinced

* GOLDEN DESERT is a worrying aged at 7
* That said we had 2 horses winning aged 7
* Both were very well raced that year like him
* Both ran well last time in 7f handicaps like him
* I flagged him up as very interesting last time out
* Go back a year and he was 2nd here in a similar race
* That run would win this and he is 9lbs lower today

SELECTION - GOLDEN DESERT 16/1


H a y d o c k 5.05

7/2 Skilful, 9/2 Call To Reason, 9/2 My Freedom
8/1 Master Of Arts, 10/1 Extraterrestrial,
12/1 Mull Of Killough, Wannabe King, 14/1 Bawaardi
14/1 Light From Mars, Sinfonico, 20/1 Memory Cloth.

This is a Mile Handicap. Its a Class 2 race this year as
it's been upgraded from a Class 4 race so any previous
history is useless. I think its a very dangerous race and
because of that don't want to waste time here. I found
so many "nearly but not quite right" profiles. Horses
on the cusp of being negatives that I felt it was not a
safe race. I'm opposing both CALL TO REASON and
MEMORY CLOTH with 1 run this year. I wanted to
avoid MY FREEDOM as a 3yo up in distance. Seasonal
debutant MULL OF KILLOUGH has to go. I looked at
horses like MASTER OF ARTS down in trip and wasnt
impressed and I see him short of runs doing that. I am
against LIGHT FROM MARS from a 6f race. It is best
to avoid BAWAARDI exposed up in distance with no
recent run. I have ended up shortlisting Four.

SKILFUL - I cant pretend I wouldnt prefer more runs
BAWAARDI - Not convinced he has done enough
WANNABE KING - Great last run. Stats say too much weight
EXTRATERRESTRIAL - May be compromise bet each way


C h e s t e r 5.20

5/2 Pearl Blue, 9/2 Corporal Maddox, 13/2 Button Moon
13/2 Rocket Rob, 9/1 Barons Spy, 10/1 Courageous
12/1 Bravo King, 14/1 King Of Eden, 16/1 Last Sovereign
16/1 My Kingdom, 20/1 Julius Geezer, 25/1 Conry.

Not keen on some of the issues in this race. I want to say
a couple of things. Its a 6f handicap but dont assume there
is a huge low draw bias. The last 3 winners over this course and distance with 9 + runners were won by horses that had Stalls 11 9 10 which seems amazing but true. I would have to oppose PEARL BLUE. I hated her profile as a 3yo filly coming from a 5f race. Horses doing that had a 2-93 record and none had under 13 runs like her or came from only 3yo handicaps so I'd avoid her. I wouldnt see BUTTON MOON as a safe choice either but she isnt a negative and her draw isnt as bad as many will think. I can resist BARONS SPY a 10 year old. I'd avoid MY KINGDOM from an 8f race and CONRY with an absence. I wasn't convince BRAVO KING was the right choice as a 3yo from a 5f race and for similar reasons oppose JULIUS GEEZER. I see LAST SOVEREIGN
as weak. I think the winner will come from one of Four.

* KING OF EDEN - Ground and Handicap mark worry me
* COURAGEOUS - I'd rather he didnt come from 5f
* ROCKET ROB - Another from 5f and is stall 12 too high
* CORPORAL MADDOX - Looks the each way bet 4/1

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