No Strong Bet Today


T o d a y 's S e l e c t i o n

1 Bet

York 4.15

M U S N A D 8/1

Each Way

With nothing interesting over the sticks or sand I am
left going head to head at York the big beast of tracks.
This monsterous track will get the upper hand plenty
more times than I will tame it but I've thrown what I
can at it in a few races to try and produce something.

I have a few chances at York. I quite like a few races
much as I know I am up against it. I am suggesting a
bet in the 4.15pm. I like MUSNAD each way. I may
well have saved on SANGAR at 8/1 as well but with
4 places available I have taken the each way option.

Not my favourite stable but MUSNAD has been just
messed about with up and down radically in distance
and has had no chance in several recent races. Now
he gets his chance and finds himself 14lbs lower in
the weights. I get 4 places. Almost half the runners
are outsiders. I have found a few negatives as well.
I think he is worth a bet at 8/1 with 4 places here.




M e s s a g e T h o u g h t s

Nothing at the evening card at Wolverhampton. I like
to skip the Friday night sand card and use any time for
Saturdays message. I have done that and spent the time
om Tomorrow's Cesarewitch and some statistics for the
race. If anybody wants my Cesarewitch stats then they
can be found on the Message Board. It's a strong set of
angles in this race. The stats are very heavyweight and
demanding and I may have overcooked them. I scanned
it very quickly. I will look again tomorrow but my First
draft ended up with a 20/1 + selection and two big price
shortlisted as well. That may change as its a real puzzle
but anyone wanting to look at this race may find these
interesting and worth a look if you have the time today.


N a t i o n a l H u n t

Not overkeen on the National Hunt today. Two trappy
meetings and not covering these. I've just summarised a
few races in short one line comments. Looked at where
I would have gone if I had previewed certain races there.
Doesnt tell you much but there isn't much I can say and
I am only cherry picking over the jumps at the moment
as its all low quality stuff and decent profiles are rare.


Y o r k

That leaves me just with York today for the main parts
of the message. Always said that York is the hardest of
all the tracks to win money. I did not have many other
options today so decided to face up to York and meet it
head on. Not done every race or completed every race
either. Committed to the races I can but I am under no
illusion we are going to battle on the most ruthless track.


T h u r s d a y 's S u m m a r y

Ayr was abandoned yesterday half way through the card
so the selection on Mighty Clarets was a non runner and
all stakes were returned. That left only a few races I had
covered in the message. We didnt do too badly from the
other races. The National Hunt bets were 1st and 2nd so
an each way double did do damage. The Ayr races we did
see run ended up in an overall score draw. Ducal won and
we didnt do much wrong at Wolverhampton so certainly
no damage but Ayr being abandoned cut the day short.


****************************************************
****************************************************


P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


N a t i o n a l H u n t


Nothing much over the jumps today. The quality is so low
at this time of year I am just cherry picking there and that means ignoring races without decent angles as we see today

* Newton Abbot has a lot of small fields.
* I thought the favourites would win the first two races

* In the 1.50pm I'd have the split stake bet
* Timesawastin to win and Briefcase to Place

* Carlisle 2.10pm is a take your pick have a guess hurdle
* I would have to split stakes here win and place
* I'd have Houston Dynimo to place and select any to win

* In the 2.55 I'd try and oppose 4yo EDGARDO SOL
* He is not a negative and 4 year olds do win these races
* Purely on his weight and prices I'd want better odds
* If I'd previewed the race I'd be with CALLISTO MOON

* Best profile at 3.20 is RICHIE BOB from a Graded Bumper
* Tightly knit Novice Hurdle but he's my choice

* I didnt want to bet or oppose King Of The Night at 3.30
* I think the market will help more than I can here

* In the 4.05pm most persuaded by PICOT DE SAY
* He would be my choice each way around 3/1




Y o r k 2.00

5/1 Radio Gaga, 7/1 Deepsand, 8/1 Nameitwhatyoulike
9/1 Key Ambition, 10/1 Gung Ho Jack, 10/1 Rent Free
12/1 Passionada, 14/1 Jessie´s Spirit, 14/1 On The Hoof
14/1 Red Quartet, 16/1 Dutch Heritage, 20/1 Guru Girl
20/1 Parc De Launay, 20/1 Springinmystep
20/1 Tip Top Gorgeous, 20/1 Verbeeck, 25/1 Mabroor
25/1 On The Dark Side, 33/1 Nearly A Gift, Our Boy Jack.

* This is a 6f Nursery for 0-90 rated horses
* York has 18 past renewals of this race
* There are 75 similar Nurseries elsewhere

This Nursery is simply ridiculous and it's optimistic to
try and solve it with such a huge field. I would have a
problem with very low and very high drawn horses.

Go back to 2006 and the 46 Handicaps here with 12
or more runners. Horses that were drawn 1 and 2 had
a bad 1-86 record the only winner ended up a Group 3
winner. I do not fancy either DUTCH HERITAGE or
KEY AMBITION from their very low draw. Neither
TIP TOP GORGEOUS or PASSIONADA appeal from
very high draw's either. PASSIONADA is a filly from
a 5f maiden and just two career starts. We know every
past winner of this race had 3 or more runs. I looked
at all other races and no Fillies won from a 5f maiden
with under 3 runs. Not many have tried to be fair but
as none have won and as she has a difficult draw I am
against PASSIONADA. It worries me RADIO GAGA
has raced only once and as it's a Grade 1 track as well.

RADIO GAGA is a once raced filly. I looked at all 6f
Nurseries for fillies with her exact profile. There are
only 3 fillies that tried to win and they came 2-6-10.
None have won but it's a small sample size. Against
her is the fact all past winners of this raced at least 3
times before. In her favour is a good draw and many
will notice the 2nd 3rd 4th 5th behind last time have
all come out to win since. She's been heavily backed
as well and many clearly fancy her. She doesnt offer
me enough at 3/1 in a 20 runner York Nursery but I
would argue there is a case for making her the saver.

All 18 past winners of this race ran within a Month
and those that didnt had a 0-54 record. That hurts a
lot of these mainly outsiders but RENT FREE has it
against him and I did not like him anyway. No past
winner of this was beaten more than 10 + lengths in
their latest race which helps to narrow this down a
little more. MABROOR doesnt offer enough and did
not run well enough last time. SPRINGINMYSTEP
ON THE HOOF and GURU GIRL have bad profiles.
Whilst not a negative NAMEITWHATYOULIKE
comes out as over exposed. The only fillies coming
from 7f Nurseries to win had 5 + runs and a race in
the past fortnight so JESSIE´S SPIRIT has to go too.

S h o r t l i s t

* DEEPSAND won a 6f Nursery last time
* I felt he had enough to shortlist
* GUNG HO JACK - Happy with his profile
* The 38 day absence means No York winners like him
* I found 2 identical winners elsewhere so he is respected

Selection

Split Stake Bet

GUNG HO JACK 12/1 Win Bet
DEEPSAND 7/4 Place Bet





Y o r k 2.30

13/8 Le Drakkar, 11/4 Dangerous Midge, 7/2 Jet Away
7/1 Treasury Devil, 12/1 Enak, 14/1 Rasmy.

* This is a nasty little 10f Conditions race
* Only 22 similar races at this time of year
* DANGEROUS MIDGE has the highest rating
* I question his fitness with 1 poor run since last March
* Horses with long absences need to be lightly raced
* LE DRAKKAR may be too exposed for his absence
* ENAK comes from 8f and thats been a problem
* RASMY - Small chance but hard to read

S h o r t l i s t

* TREASURY DEVIL needs respect and is shortlisted
* JET AWAY - I see him as shortlistable
* TREASURY DEVIL just gets the verdict
* Thats because the last 3 winners were 3 year olds
* JET AWAY - I see him as a saver at 5/2
* TREASURY DEVIL the main selection at 7/2



Y o r k 3.05

6/1 Circumvent, 8/1 Barren Brook, 17/2 Togiak
10/1 Dubai Dynamo, 11/1 Baby Strange, 11/1 Docofthebay
11/1 Vainglory, 12/1 Arabian Spirit, 12/1 Extraterrestrial
12/1 Harrison George,12/1 Prime Exhibit12/1 Snow Bay
14/1 Riggins, 16/1 Clockmaker 16/1 Osteopathic Remedy
20/1 Hot Rod Mamma City Of The Kings, 33/1 Dubai Hills.

* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-100 runners
* We have just 34 similar races in October
* The Draw is quite interesting here
* Since 2005 York has had 60 races at 8f
* Thats every kind of race and in any class
* Horses Drawn 17-18-19-20 have a 0-56 record
* No horse has won any Mile race here drawn 17 or higher
* HOT ROD MAMMA has a poor draw and profile
* PRIME EXHIBIT - Poor draw and weak from 6f
* CLOCKMAKER - Poor draw and profile
* I looked at exposed horses in these races
* The only winners had at least 7 runs that season
* CITY OF THE KINGS is underraced as an exposed horse
* Exposed horses aged 7 or more are just 1-75
* That winner was Calcutta in this race in 2003
* He had Group form and ran the day before
* EXTRATERRESTRIAL is vulnerable aged 7
* Not sure I can rely on him
* The ground may not suit him either
* BABY STRANGE is also 7 and comes up in trip
* He has only even won at 6f before
* He has stamina doubts and being held up wont help here
* DOCOFTHEBAY is also 7 and statistically weak
* Especially up in trip and with no recent race
* DOCOFTHEBAY also has a career high mark
* OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY is 7 not a good sign
* Far from convinced he did enough last time out
* Far from convinced his draw helps him either
* RIGGINS - not for me aged 7 and modest run last time
* TOGIAK is hard to read but lots of negative factors
* Dont like his conditions form or 1 run since June
* Overall I found him far from convincing
* DUBAI HILLS - didnt do enough last time
* HARRISON GEORGE is an exposed 6yo
* All horses his age and older had 9 + runs that year
* He falls short of that with 7 runs
* All exposed horses aged 6 or more did more last time
* Those beaten 4 + lengths were 0-69
* HARRISON GEORGE was beaten over 6 lengths last time
* Most horses his age had far less weight than he does
* I looked at horses like him who didnt win last time
* Those without a run in the past 7 days were 0-62
* HARRISON GEORGE fails a few petty stats
* He just doesnt feel safe enough to shortlist
* ARABIAN SPIRIT is an exposed 6yo
* Without a recent race he is unsafe
* He has a career high mark and has no wins in this class
* ARABIAN SPIRIT just falls short

S h o r t l i s t

* SNOW BAY didnt do enough last time
* I can overlook that as he reared in the stalls
* He is a long way from a good think though
* Not with a career high mark and unproven in Class 2

* DUBAI DYNAMO is exposed from 7f
* A Good recent run does help his profile
* He is unsafe but well drawn and considered

* BARREN BROOK is 4 and comes from 10f
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race before
* I found 1 similar winner with that profile
* That winner was slightly different but I respect him
* He has a months absence and a career high mark though

* VAINGLORY is 7 not an ideal age
* A Good recent run and a good draw gets him shortlisted
* Coming from a Conditions race he isnt strong statistically
* I would prefer a smaller field for him as well

* CIRCUMVENT has a tough weight but looks shortlistable
* His good run in the Cambridgeshire gets him considered

Selection

CIRCUMVENT 9/1 +



Y o r k 3.40

5/1 Anton Chigurh, 5/1 Byronic Hero, 11/2 Lisiere
6/1 Lupo D´oro, 6/1 Master Bond, 7/1 Pearl Secret
10/1 Forget Me Not Lane, 12/1 Muaamara, 16/1 Bengaline
20/1 Busy Bimbo, 33/1 Weood, Yeeoow, 40/1 Whip It In.

There isnt much I can say about the Maiden at 3.40 with
several promising types.I thought LUPO D´ORO may be
just a bit too exposed to win a Grade 1 track maiden. I am
against FORGET ME NOT LANE and PEARL SECRET
as they are unraced. Not negatives but we may be advised
to get some experience. MUAAMARA has been backed
but she is unraced as well.ANTON CHIGURH needs to be
respected but he isn't my first choice as he has the worst
draw much as that is not impossible to overcome. I had a
look at BYRONIC HERO and couldnt find a winner from
a Conditions race like him beaten so far as he was and he
doesnt offer me enough. MASTER BOND is shortlistable
but I was most persuaded by LISIERE the favourite. May
be tempted with MASTER BOND to place and LISIERE
to win the race but we are having to guess in this maiden.



Y o r k 4.15

6/1 Sangar, 7/1 Dysios, 7/1 Spanish Plume, 7/1 Vita Lika
10/1 She´s Got The Luck, Spes Nostra, 12/1 Shamdarley
14/1 Lifetime, 14/1 Look Left, 14/1 Save The Bees
14/1 Shadow Catcher, 16/1 Come Here Yew, 16/1 Musnad
20/1 Abdicate, 20/1 King Of The Celts, 25/1 Buzz Law
25/1 Hernando Torres, Highlife Dancer, Cottam Donny.

This is a 3yo Handicap and to my surprise I finished it.

* SPES NOSTRA - I think his draw hurts him
* LIFETIME - Also rejected because of the draw
* SPANISH PLUME - Poor draw and opposed
* SHADOW CATCHER - Poor draw and profile
* VITA LIKA is a filly with 6 career starts
* Fillies with 5 or more runs won 7 of these races
* They all had 5 or more runs that season
* VITA LIKA only has 3 and I see her as underraced
* LOOK LEFT - Unorthodox and unmatchable
* COME HERE YEW - Not the right sort from 8f
* KING OF THE CELTS - Unsafe from 13f
* DYSIOS - Up from 8f with an absence hard with 9 + runs
* I have problems with all the above horses

S h o r t l i s t

* SHAMDARLEY - Respected
* MUSNAD - Respected
* SANGAR - Respected

Selection

MUSNAD - Win Bet 8/1
SANGAR - Saver 8/1

SANGAR looks worth a saver but I am drawn to MUSNAD
for the following reason. He was handicapped and rated 80.

* He lost his 4th run and was dropped 5lbs in the weights
* When he ran at Chester on his 5th race he was a negative
* I had good reasons to oppose him up in trip
* After that race he was dropped 4lbs to a mark of 71
* He the dropped from 10f to 5f at Beverley
* That was an impossible rask for him
* MUSNAD duly lost and was dropped another 3lbs
* Last time out he went from 5f to 8f
* He was again very weak statistically that day
* He lost and was dropped another 2lbs
* MUSNAD has now dropped 14lbs in 4 races
* These are 4 races he had very little chance in
* Off a Mark of 66 he now looks well treated
* His first decent profile of the year today
* MUSNAD could well be handicapped to win



Y o r k 4.50

9/4 Linkable, 3/1 El Lail, 7/2 Blades Lad
9/2 Haymarket, 7/1 Scrupul, 16/1 Serjeant Buzfuz
66/1 Lizzie Drippin, 100/1 Latenfast.

Little I can say in this maiden. There look to be 4 main
runners. HAYMARKET needed to have ran better Last
time out for me to be able to match him to any winners
so he just fails without being a negative. BLADES LAD
comes from an Auction race and isnt my first choice. I
dont have any negatives here. LINKABLE had his debut
in a Conditions race and thats fair enough but I would be
more interested in EL LAIL a more orthadox profile so
given a choice my bet would be EL LAIL each way 5/2.


Y o r k 5.20

5/1 Epic, 6/1 Desert Vision, 6/1 Pertemps Networks
7/1 Bowsers Brave, 7/1 Red Jade, 8/1 Dancing Primo
8/1 Veiled Applause, 10/1 Alsahil, 12/1 Kings Troop
14/1 Overrule, 14/1 Trip The Light, 20/1 Arizona John
33/1 Ejteyaaz, 33/1 Maybeme.

* This is a 12f Apprentice Handicap
* York has 13 past renewals but they ended in 1999
* There are 24 other Apprentice races elsewhere
* There are 123 similar 12f Handicaps for all riders
* Horses with 1 career race have awful records
* RED JADE males no appeal with 1 run this year
* Horses aged 4 or more needed 3 + runs that season
* Those that had 1-2 runs that year were 0-124
* ALSAHIL fails that and is rejected
* KINGS TROOP doesnt appeal to me
* Results show he has the worst draw in Stall 1
* He is underraced this year for an exposed 5 year old
* The only similar horses had a more recent race
* They also had less weight and He just falls short for me
* ARIZONA JOHN doesnt come out well
* Not well beaten on his only run since July
* VEILED APPLAUSE may not stay this far
* Many horses from his sire fail to stay 12f
* He has 7 runs at 11f and more and all were unplaced
* VEILED APPLAUSE comes from a 10f race
* Exposed horses aged 6 or more from 10f were 2-79
* Those not 1st or 2nd last time from 10f were 0-61
* VEILED APPLAUSE doesnt offer me enough
* OVERRULE is hard to read coming from hurdles
* Lots of little doubts about his chance
* I looked at exposed horses absent a month
* They had a poor 2-120 record and none were his age
* OVERRULE doesnt really offer enough
* EJTEYAAZ comes out as unimpressive
* I Didnt like him well beaten over 10f last time
* MAYBEME is an exposed 5yo Mare from 10f
* She isnt a negative but its not an impressive profile

P o s s i b l e s but F l a w e d


* DESERT VISION is 7 and won a 10f handicap last time
* I found 1 winner his age doing that
* That winner had more backclass than he does
* That makes DESERT VISION unsafe but respected
* All his wins are from lower marks in lower grades

* BOWSERS BRAVE looks unsafe to me
* Horses aged 5 or more are always unsafe if lightly raced
* I looked in 123 similar races for horses aged 5 + from 10f
* I found a very modest 4-166 record
* Those that were unexposed like him were 0-46
* Those with under 7 runs that year were 0-63
* BOWSERS BRAVE only has 4 runs this year
* All 4 winners had more backclass than he does
* These stats probably paint him in too poor a light
* Not sure I'd trust them at least not as much as they suggest
* BOWSERS BRAVE doesn't have a good profile though

* PERTEMPS NETWORKS won last time out
* Horses aged 6 or more doing that were 1-26
* That winner had more runs this season
* That winner had more backclass as well
* PERTEMPS NETWORKS has no wins in this class
* He has a career high mark as well
* PERTEMPS NETWORKS doesnt come out too well
* Mainly a few horses his age followed up wins

S h o r t l i s t

* TRIP THE LIGHT is an exposed 6 year old
* He lacks a run in the past two weeks
* He has Listed Class form but no Group form
* Similar horses had a 3-146 record
* Not a great record but there are winners like him
* TRIP THE LIGHT looks shortlistable

* DANCING PRIMO is a 5yo mare who won at 12f last time
* Similar horses had a decent 2-5 record
* Both were unexposed like her
* One had the absence she has as well
* Mares had a very good record in this York race
* She isnt unlike 2001 winner Mindanao in this race
* DANCING PRIMO has a few question marks
* DANCING PRIMO looks shortlistable though

* EPIC is an exposed 4yo winning last time out
* EPIC has a neutral profile as no horse like him tried to win
* Lot to like as he has won 2 of his last 3 races
* He was struck into in the other race and is progressive
* He has won from higher marks as well and can front run
* Neutral profile but I'd want him on side

Selection

DANCING PRIMO 12/1
TRIP THE LIGHT 12/1

Split Stake Bet

Saver on EPIC 7/1 to break level


****************************************************
****************************************************