Mathematician 106015-09-2011









T o d a y 's S e l e c t i o n s

1 Bet Today

Pontefract 6.00


MUSIC FESTIVAL 10/1 Win Bet

AUSSIE BLUE 7/1 Saver Bet

Musical Festival is 11/1 Corals Stan J
10/1 Ladbrokes PP Spbet Bet365 Boyles



Friday's Message will be shorter than usual. I wont
be able to type up as much as I'd like. Losing about
3 hours later so It will be more summarised Friday.



M e s s a g e T h o u g h t s


Ayr starts the Gold Cup meeting and throws up plenty
of testing races as usual.The message starts slowly and
doesn't get going until about 2.30 but I have lots at the
end of the day and it picks up later on.


P o n t e f r a c t

Happy to concede most races are either half hearted
or races that I think should beat me but I have the 2
mile handicaps at 3.30pm and 6.00pm that hopefully
will give us something. Both races depend on what I
hope to be a significant draw Bias. I also like a Match
bet in the 6pm race on Aussie Blues to beat Shayla.

Pontefract 3.30

SOLAR SPIRIT 8/1 Each Way

Pontefract 6.00

MUSIC FESTIVAL 10/1 Win Bet
AUSSIE BLUE 7/1 Saver Bet


I very nearly went with SOLAR SPIRIT for my
bet but I didn't for one reason. SOLAR SPIRIT
and MUSIC FESTIVAL are very similar horses
as they showed when 4th and 5th in the same
race at Musselburgh last time out. I've chosen
MUSIC FESTIVAL as he takes in the weaker
Class 5 handicap today and SOLAR SPIRIT is
staying in a better quality race. Throw in what
looks a bad favourite and I went with the 6pm.



A y r

I have fired some bullets at some of the races here
but they feel Blanks or rubber bullets. Ayr has left
me in no doubt who is in charge today. Submissive
previews here. Not impressive work. May have to
work hard to get much here today and it may come
in smaller markets like match bets or lays. Smaller
staking here with a few chances. You never really
know. I have a 33/1 chance I like in the 4.50 but
far more hopeful than confident in any races here.


Y a r m o u t h

A few bland previews in a few blander races and like
yesterday feel Yarmouth has been the least relevant
track this week. Nothing I want to highlight as a bet
here and just feel no better than competetive in the
previews without expecting to impress anyone here.






Y e s t e r d a y 's S u m m a r y

Interesting day and a good one for anyone that decided
to join me in some each way doubles on 4 horses I liked.
We ended up with a W F 2 W record from the 4 bets. It
Started so well when Select Commitee won at a very big
price and when that happens to the first horse you have
every right to dream. The full house became impossible
as BOND ARTIST fell. It was very early in the race far
too early to predict anything but he clipped the heels of
another horse and came down early on. He was a gamble
and the market suggested he had a serious chance. Wasnt
too far off the maximum payout but it was lost with his
fall and FADHAA's second place. That place did bump up
returns but the one we wanted FAIRY MIST won and he
made it an excellent bet for anyone that followed it. The
rest of the message held up very well so pleased with that.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S




A y r 1.50

No strong angles in this 6f Auction Maiden for 2yo's.
I thought it interesting that in 64 similar races none
of the winners were absent more than 7 weeks which
hurts FARANG KONDIEW with 110 days off but it's
not as simple as that as there are not strong profiles
against him. LADY GIBRALTA isn't matchable to a
winner. ONE KOOL DUDE is quite exposed now and
none like him came from 5f so its an unsafe race. It
leaves me cold. I can't select any of these 3 horses so
Stepharlie - Red Shimmer - Mistress Of Rome are the
shortlist and whichever looks the best supported will
be my token guess in an unpalatable starter.


Y a r m o u t h 2.10

2/1 Poker Hospital, 11/4 Biba Diva, 5/1 Idler
7/1 Kings Decree, 5/1 Chalk And Cheese
20/1 Indiana Guest 33/1 Brother Tiger, 33/1 Conowen
50/1 Ooi Long 50/1 Somemothersdohavem.

This is a 2yo Maiden over 6f. I am not persuaded by
POKER HOSPITAL. She may win for all I know but
too many doubts about her. Not keen on her Draw in
Stall one. Her absence albeit just 39 days is not a plus.
Her profile was unimpressive. I looked at fillies from
6f maidens. They were poor with 3 or more runs and
poor from Auction maidens as well. Given her price I
would want an each way alternative. KINGS DECREE
was like 1 winner and I cant rule him out. IDLER has
a perfectly decent chance as well. BIBA DIVA is best
profile and looks the leading choice in a split stake.

BIBA DIVA - Win Bet 7/2

KINGS DECREE - Place Bet 5/4 +



A y r 2.20

This is a 5f Handicap for 0-69 rated horses. It looks
a bit too ambitious so not planning a preview. There
are 203 similar races. Had I done the race I would've
opposed the following horses for the given reasons.

* COOL IN THE SHADE - Not for me from a maiden
* Horses doing that with 9 + runs are 0-48 and she's a filly
* SAXONETTE - 3yo filly from 5f not for me
* BLACK ANNIS BOWER - 3yo fillies need more runs that year
* TONGALOOMA - Shaky profile and dont like her draw



P o n t e f r a c t 2.30

3/1 Paradise Spectre, 3/1 Tislaam, 9/2 Mr Wolf
5/1 Mandhooma, 5/1 Mount Hollow, 10/1 Half A Crown
12/1 Uddy Mac, 20/1 Gertmegalush.

* This is an Apprentice race over 6f.
* There are 17 similar races in September
* There are 154 similar races for all jockeys
* The requirements to win this are simple
* You want 13 + runs and 8 + runs this season
* You want a recent run in a Handicap
* HALF A CROWN - Doesnt have what it takes
* MANDHOOMA doesnt come out well
* No horse like her won a 7f handicap last time
* All her 7 wins are a Brighton
* She has a career high mark on a track that may not suit
* MANDHOOMA is too risky
* UDDY MAC is a 4yo filly from a 7f race
* Fillies aged 4 doing that with 13 + runs were 1-22
* That winner had more backclass and had won before
* UDDY MAC has a 0-22 career record and isnt strong
* TISLAAM is an exposed 4yo from a 6f race
* He won this race last year as a 3 year old
* I looked at horses like him in 154 races
* Those with only Class 4 backclass like him are 1-49
* That winner was a female so I cant match him
* TISLAAM doesnt come out as well as I'd like
* MR WOLF - Not for me but not a negative
* I'd want a run within 2 weeks for a 10yo
* There are a couple that have won without that
* They had less weight than MR WOLF
* They achieved a bit more last time as well
* He just falls short but only just
* PARADISE SPECTRE is 4 and won a 6f race last time
* Unexposed 4yo's doing that won 2 races
* Both had 9 + runs that year and he has just 6
* Neither carried the weight he does as well
* PARADISE SPECTRE just falls short for me
* GERTMEGALUSH is an exposed 4yo from a 6f race
* He has Class 2 Form but lacks a run in 2 weeks
* I found 1 winner with that profile (1-54)
* GERTMEGALUSH is not a negative because of that
* There is a doubt he is in good enough form to win
* MOUNT HOLLOW won a 6f handicap last time
* Exposed horses doing that won 2 races
* Both ran 2-4 weeks ago as he does
* MOUNT HOLLOW has done enough to shortlist

S e l e c t i o n

That was a lot harder to do than I thought and I feel
its open. My preview suggests MOUNT HOLLOW's
the sensible selection each way. I am going with him
but the race doesnt throw up good angles because we
have no horses up in trip or having absences. Despite
that I will go with MOUNT HOLLOW each way.



Y a r m o u t h 3.10

7/4 Garrarufa, 11/2 Doctor Banner, 7/1 Jaci Uzzi
9/1 Mount St Mistress, 12/1 Alexandra Palace
12/1 Manderston, 14/1 Nude, 14/1 The Mighty Lohan
16/1 Coach Montana, 16/1 Fen Flyer, 16/1 Recway Striker.

This is a Selling Nursery for 2 year olds over a mile.
Short history to this race but almost every year we
have a shock winner. I want to try and nail it down

* Horses with 3 career starts have a poor record
* Horses from Claimers do not do well
* Not many winners come from an 8f race
* You are better off coming from 7f
* Horses from 6f races struggled
* The only winners were males from sellers with 4 runs

S h o r t l i s t

* MANDERSTON could be interesting
* Comes from the same trial race as the 2009 winner
* GARRARUFA - Profile fine and from good trial race
* Not convinced his price is big enough with a big field
* I can't split these so going with bigger prices

Selection - MANDERSTON



A y r 3.20

This is a Mile Handicap. Looks too competetive especially
with mixed messages from the Draw. Low Numbers do score
well but the last 4 winners of similar races were all drawn in Higher Stalls. Just planning to pinpoint a few negatives here.

SHE´S A CHARACTER - No 4yo filly won with her absence
VEILED APPLAUSE - All 8yo's need a more recent race
LUV U TOO - Poor profile
HAIL BOLD CHIEF - Weak profile aged 4 from 11f



P o n t e f r a c t 3.30

6/1 Climaxfortackle, 6/1 Imaginary World
6/1 Jonny Lesters Hair, 9/1 Robert The Painter
10/1 Maggie Mey, 10/1 Sir George, 10/1 Standpoint
12/1 Solar Spirit, 14/1 Duke Of Burgundy
14/1 Shadowtime, 16/1 Cono Zur, The Which Doctor
16/1 Tribal Myth, 20/1 Dream Lodge
20/1 Not My Choice, 25/1 Bilidn, 25/1 Whistledownwind.


What interests me here is the Draw both for this race
and the later handicap at 6pm which I have done in a
lot more detail over the same distance. I want to see
if my Draw Opinions at 6.00pm are safe. We will have
some clear evidence in this race to see if it is.

* The Draw matters over this Course and Distance
* Just after the start there is a very sharp left hand bend.
* In the past that has really hurt the higher stalls.
* Since 2007 Pontefract have 48 handicaps at 8f
* Thats 48 Handicaps with 10 or more runners
* Horses Drawn in stall 10 and more are just 4-214
* There have been 2 recent winners drawn high
* Both these horses got out early and Led
* I would happily avoid horses drawn 15 or more

* JONNY LESTERS HAIR - Bad Draw in 15
* CLIMAXFORTACKLE - Bad Draw in 16
* ROBERT THE PAINTER - Bad Draw in 17

These 3 horses are all fancied but very badly drawn for
me and tempted to lay them all at 8/1 8/1 10/1. This is
a combined lay of around 2/1. Not sure how safe that is.
I suppose I could add Standpoint who has a decent draw
but a weak profile which will increase the risk but reduce
the payout if I am wrong. MAGGIE MEY doesnt come
out well either and Stall 14 isnt ideal for her. Decided if
you want a bet in the race why not lay 5 horses together.
Lay Standpoint - Maggie Mey and the 3 drawn 15-16-17
above and that should reduce any payout to a manageable
level. Those desperate for a bet SOLAR SPIRIT has one
of the better profiles and I'd happily endorse his chance.



A y r 3.50

7/2 Take It To The Max, 4/1 Kiwi Bay
5/1 Come Here Yew, 6/1 Good Boy Jackson
15/2 Ted´s Brother, 11/1 Amethyst Dawn
12/1 Euston Square, 14/1 Daring Dream
16/1 Osgood, Tewin Wood, 25/1 High Resolution
33/1 Full Toss, 33/1 Rasselas.

Similar story to the 3.20pm race. This is a Mile Handicap
that looks too competetive especially with mixed messages
from the Draw. Just planning to pinpoint a few negatives.

TAKE IT TO THE MAX - Unimpressive down in trip
TED´S BROTHER - Unsafe aged 3 winning at 7f last time
DARING DREAM - Not sure He's ready to win from 7f
AMETHYST DAWN - Dont want an exposed mare from 7f
EUSTON SQUARE - Unsafe from 12f

Shortlist

GOOD BOY JACKSON - Respected
COME HERE YEW - Respected
KIWI BAY - Best profile and most likely winner

Selection - KIWI BAY




Y a r m o u t h 4.10

No strong view but 5 renewals and all 5 of these were
3 year olds so THUBIAAN and A BOY NAMED SUZI
would be heading my shortlist as the only 3 year olds.




A y r 4.20

3/1 Las Verglas Star, 5/1 Hot Rod Mamma
13/2 Scrapper Smith, 15/2 Northside Prince
8/1 Space War, Emirates Dream, 17/2 Seattle Drive
11/1 Medicinal Compound, 12/1 Mirrored
14/1 Zenella, 16/1 Pleasant Day.

* This is a 10f Handicap for 0-97 rated horses.
* There are 45 C2 handicaps over 10f at this time of year.

Only 9 of the 45 winners came from 8f and as none of
them were exposed HOT ROD MAMMA looks one to
avoid. All 39 Exposed horses like him lost if coming
up from an 8f race and she also won at a Mile last time
hardly a good sign for a 4yo filly. I have to be against
EMIRATES DREAM and MEDICINAL COMPOUND
coming via 8f with just 1 run that season. ZENELLA
is also rejected from a 7f race. NORTHSIDE PRINCE
has a weak profile. I'd be surprised if MIRRORED won
with a poor run in a Conditions race so recently. The
ground may not suit SPACE WAR and coming from a
Claimer he is rejected anyway. PLEASANT DAY has
a difficult to read profile. Just about fine bit I'd prefer
a better last race. The Ground would also worry me as
well as would this distance. I do not think he's proved
he will stay this far on softer ground. I feel I must be
against SCRAPPER SMITH. He did extremely well to
win at Ripon last time out. He's very lightly raced this
year especially winning last time and I could fail him
on a few angles. He may have been the beneficiary of
a false pace at Ripon as the leaders went off too fast
and the handicapper has punished him and I dont see
him defying a career high mark in a career high grade.
LAS VERGLAS STAR has a chances but if you look
at all winners from 3yo handicaps like him they all
had Under 13 career starts. LAS VERGLAS STAR 's
had 15 runs now and he just misses out as selection.

S e l e c t i o n

SEATTLE DRIVE 6/1 - The 2007 winner was similar




P o n t e f r a c t 4.30

Way out of comfort zone so ignoring this 17 handicap.
My negatives of May Contain Nuts, Cat O´ Nine Tails
Tillietudlem , Simonside , Spiders Star , Dan Buoy and
Strikemaster never came close to opening the race up.

If you follow the 5 past renewals of this race which is
hardly safe you will get a single horse. These past races
suggest an unexposed horse with 5 + runs that season if
possible aged 3 or 5 coming from 15f or more and not
hammered last time. That points weakly to Spruzzo.




Y a r m o u t h 4.40

2/1 Astromagick, 7/2 Twice Bitten, 9/2 Ugalla
11/2 Motirani, 6/1 Torran Sound, 9/1 Double Handful
20/1 Naheell.

There are 122 of these 2m Handicaps at this time of year.
Fillies won 32 of the 122 races. None however won after
an absence of 7 weeks. All 59 failed so ASTROMAGICK
has a lot to prove absent 58 days. Fillies aged 3 who came
from 12f or shorter were just 2-43 and none came from a
11f race as she does. I wasnt impressed. Nothing else has
a very safe or very convincing profile and 7 runners does
not make the race any more attractive. I dont want to be
with the favourite at a short price with a questionable and
unsafe profile so I will go with TWICE BITTEN instead.



A y r 4.50

4/1 Illustrious Prince, 6/1 Fishforcompliments
7/1 Beckermet, 7/1 Rio Cobolo, 10/1 North Central
10/1 Strictly Pink, 12/1 Frontline Girl
12/1 Keys Of Cyprus, 12/1 Thoroughly Red
14/1 Social Forum, 16/1 Berbice, 16/1 Frequency
16/1 Sam Nombulist, 20/1 Hayek.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-78 rated horses
* There are 176 similar races in September
* ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE won an 8f race last time
* Only 2 horses won at 8f and then won at 7f
* None were 4 year olds like him
* Both winners had significantly more backclass
* Neither had a recent run and he looks wrong to me
* The ground wont be in his favour either
* RIO COBOLO is an exposed 5yo from 6f
* What few winners managed that had more backclass
* FRONTLINE GIRL - Weak as a Mare with an absence
* Fails other angles from a Claimer as well
* THOROUGHLY RED - Rejected with 1 run this year
* FREQUENCY - Not safe as exposed 4yo from 6f
* Only winners like him had a better and more recent run
* NORTH CENTRAL - Poor profile from 5f
* SOCIAL FORUM is 3 and has just 1 run since April
* I dont see him being able to win this
* KEYS OF CYPRUS - I dont want a 9yo well beaten last time
* SAM NOMBULIST doesnt come out well
* Not down in trip aged 3 with 4 runs this year
* HAYEK is 4 and comes from a 6f race
* Those doing that without a run in 2 weeks are 0-38
* I would also worry about the ground with HAYEK
* STRICTLY PINK is a 3yo filly with 19 runs
* Fillies aged 3 with 13 or more runs had a 1-71 record
* That horse won last time out and she didnt

S h o r t l i s t

* BECKERMET is 9 and lacks a run in 2 weeks
* I found 2 winners that had that profile
* Thats 2 more than I thought I would find
* Those 2 winners came from 6f and 8f
* None like BECKERMET came from a 7f race
* May be unimportant but felt I should mention it
* BECKERMET is Drawn 1 not certain to be a help

* FISHFORCOMPLIMENTS - Acceptable profile
* Well handicapped because of a losing run of 30
* That losing run does worry me as does the ground
* He acts on soft but he is better on faster ground

* BERBICE - Not dead statistically and respected
* He has some soft ground form but not sure it's ideal
* He may want a smaller field but he has a chance
* BERBICE is unsafe but I'd shortlist him

Selection

BERBICE 33/1

Going with him as a risky bet as I am lacking strong
alternatives and no strong why he shouldnt nick this.




P o n t e f r a c t M a i d e n s

* No real interest in either race
* In the 5pm my guess would be Academy
* In the 5.30 I did not like Landaman
* It will depend on what the unraced horses are like
* I will guess Montefeltro but thats all it is



Y a r m o u t h 5.10

5/1 Simple Rhythm, 11/2 Cool Water Oasis
11/2 Deslaya, 6/1 Till Dawn, 13/2 Mr Skipiton
10/1 Fedora, 11/1 Osgoodisgood, 12/1 Pearly Wey
14/1 Talkative Guest, 14/1 Too Many Questions
16/1 Look Twice, 18/1 Jemimaville, 20/1 Clerical


This is a difficult 6f Handicap. With no clear draw
advantage I decided not spend too much time on it.

* TILL DAWN - Too exposed for a 3yo from 5f
* DESLAYA - Underraced this year for 3yo filly
* COOL WATER OASIS - 3yo filly from maidens are poor
* MR SKIPITON - Underraced for exposed horse no backclass

I will predict the above 4 horses will be beaten. I would see
Fedora, Pearly Wey and Talkative Guest who all ran at 7f
yesterday as Neutral profiles. Unsafe but not negatives. I'd
not be interested in Too Many Questions or Jemimaville.
I see definate risk in Osgoodisgood. Clerical is clearly going
to be better with more runs this year. Fillies aged 3 with an
absence like Look Twice struggle. Not totally convinced
but I would go with SIMPLE RHYTHM to win.



P o n t e f r a c t 6.00

9/2 Shayla, 8/1 Musnad, 8/1 Petsas Pleasure
10/1 Adorable Choice, 10/1 Aussie Blue , Music Festival
10/1 Opus Maximus, 10/1 Very Well Red, 12/1 Lujano
14/1 Classic Descent, 14/1 Hits Only Jude, 14/1 Seldom
16/1 Motafarred, 16/1 Viking Rose, 25/1 Bavarian Princess
25/1 Highkingofireland, 25/1 Thrust Control.

* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-67 rated horses
* Pontefract has 7 renewals of this race
* There are 215 similar races elsewhere
* The 7 Pontefract winners can be summed up like this
* They all had 13 + runs
* They all had at least 7 runs that season
* They were all aged 3-4-5-6-7
* They all ran within a Month

* The Draw matters over this Course and Distance
* Just after the start there is a very sharp left hand bend.
* In the past that has really hurt the higher stalls.
* Since 2007 Pontefract have 48 handicaps at 8f
* Thats 48 Handicaps with 10 or more runners
* Horses Drawn in stall 10 and more are 4-214
* There have been 2 recent winners drawn high
* Both these horses got out early and Led
* Not as confident as I was about the draw
* I would happily avoid horses drawn 15 or more
* VIKING ROSE has a horrible draw in Stall 17
* As a 3yo filly I would expect her draw to beat her
* SELDOM has a horrible drawn in Stall 16
* With a dreadful last run he is avoidable
* MOTAFARRED has a bad draw in Stall 15
* He is statistically weak as a 9to from a 12f race
* Underraced this year he doesnt offer enough
* HIGHKINGOFIRELAND has to go absent 430 days
* SHAYLA makes no appeal with one run this season
* There were 3 winners with 1 run that season
* None were fillies or mares like her
* None came from 7f races as she does
* None had under 9 career starts like her
* None were absent more than a Month like her
* SHAYLA will do very well to win this
* BAVARIAN PRINCESS also looks weak
* She is a 3yo filly with 1 run this season
* THRUST CONTROL isnt running well enough
* MUSNAD comes from a 5f race
* None of the 215 winners came from 5f to 8f
* Horses like MUSNAD from Maidens were just 2-118
* None had 4 or more runs like him
* MUSNAD just looks unsafe
* HITS ONLY JUDE comes out badly
* You dont want an 8yo well beaten last time
* He is a spring horse and has gone off the Boil
* His record from August onwards is 0-24
* HITS ONLY JUDE looks wrong
* LUJANO is a 6yo coming from a 7f race
* There were a few winners doing that
* None had under 9 runs that season
* LUJANO is unsafe statistically
* OPUS MAXIMUS comes from a Seller
* He is not like any of the 215 winners because of that
* He may pop up and he isnt a negative
* His profile is unsafe though
* VERY WELL RED is an 8yo Mare
* The only winning older mares had more backclass
* That makes her statistically vulnerable
* Throw in Topweight
* Throw in a 0-5 record here unplaced each time
* VERY WELL RED has too much against her for me
* CLASSIC DESCENT is 6 and well beaten last time
* Despite that I found 1 similar winner
* That horse was from the top of the weights
* It wouldnt be a big shock if he won
* He doesnt offer enough though
* ADORABLE CHOICE is a 3yo filly
* She was well beaten last time which is a problem
* That makes her statistically vulnerable
* She could bounce back but its a lot to assume
* Fillies aged 3 are 0-27 at Pontefract in this race
* ADORABLE CHOICE - There are safer choices

S h o r t l i s t

* PETSAS PLEASURE has a reasonable profile
* I looked at exposed 5yo's from 9f handicaps
* Those like him won 2 races and he is Fine
* Against him is Stall 14 is higher than ideal
* He is a Hold up horse which will hurt him from Stall 14

SELECTION

* AUSSIE BLUE won a division of this race last year
* He was also 3rd in the 2009 renewal
* He has a decent profile this year
* Well drawn and in the same stall he won last year
* With a recent run he is a big player

* MUSIC FESTIVAL is an unexposed 4yo Male
* He has Class 4 form and was beaten 4 + lengths last time
* I found 2 similar winners to him
* That Included the 2006 winner of this race
* That winner had 5lbs less weight than MUSIC FESTIVAL
* MUSIC FESTIVAL is a leading player

Selection

MUSIC FESTIVAL 10/1 Win Bet
AUSSIE BLUE 7/1 Saver Bet

* Additional match bet
* AUSSIE BLUE to beat Shayla

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