Daily Recommendation

No Strong Bet Today

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TODAY'S BEST BET


CHEPSTOW 3.05

BILLY MURPHY 6/1

Win Bet


DROMORE HILL 4/1

Saver


A little out of the comfort zone today but I have spent
a lot of time in this 3m Handicap Chase and found lots
of negatives I want to avoid. I like this pair as both are
unexposed and improving and although a Saver always
feels messy and is not ideal I think its important as not
many can win this race and I am making this my bet.

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ADDITIONAL BETS

These are optional and just bets that I feel stood out
from the lower part of the message and worth betting.


Two Suggestions Today

CHEPSTOW 2.05 - STATE BENEFIT
BANGOR 1.25 - PALACE JESTER

Each Way Double


CATTERICK 2.45

BALLYMACDUFF 5/1

Each Way


I won't put the each way double as the strongest bet for
long since doccumented reasons. I did consider going for
Ballymacduff as my best bet but in the end I couldnt get
Mac Aeda out of the way and wasnt sure whether I'd be
better off with the saver rather than an each way Bet.

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS



THURSDAY REVIEW

One selection yesterday with CHEVEYO each way and he
ran second. I thought he did nothing wrong and looked the
winner from a long way out. Happily we didn't lose money
on the race and pleased that the only horse to beat him was
one of my big dangers so I feel I got the race right and had every chance and as we didn't lose money I am relaxed with the bet. Had several winners elsewhere and pleased we had a great day with the Additional Bets in the message. Messages can get a bit intense and sometimes they are filled with lots of rubbish and weak opinions so I will try and extract what I see as the stronger business there as I tended to do anyway. Has to go down as a good day overall and pleased with it.


TODAY'S MESSAGE

I have ended up with 12 Previews today some more detailed
than others. Its ridiculous we have as many as 5 meetings in early Febuary. It feels like Mid June. That has meant I have not had the chance to even look at Wolverhampton tonight.

LINGFIELD

Three previews here. I have to avoid the 3yo handicaps at
the end of the card so left with 2 difficult races and a short priced bet in WYETH who I felt would win the 2.50pm. It is just an average Lingfield card and nothing exceptional.

BANGOR

Three previews here but limited choice and more a case of
pointing out one or two interesting things. Played it quite
safe here and nothing stands out to me as high quality.

CHEPSTOW

Four previews. The Novice Hurdles are standard stuff and I
don't trust my 3.40pm work. The race that interests me on
this card is the Handicap Chase at 3.05pm as I have taken a
lot of time on the race and it looks my best preview today.

CATTERICK

Two previews here. Scrappy stuff and only average work
but I did like the Long distance Handicap Hurdle at 2.45pm
and think my selection there is worth a bet each way.


It's mainly a National Hunt Day today and although quite a
long message the races to really get involved with are quite few and far between. Hopefully I've chosen the best above.


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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


CATTERICK 1.10

9/4 Laborec, 4/1 Bring Sweets, 6/1 Abstract Art 7/1 Antoella 8/1 Knight Legend, 8/1 Palm Reader 9/1 Lady Pacha
12/1 Greenbelt 25/1 Kyathos, 33/1 Chadwell Sprin
40/1 Andy Vic, 40/1 Frosty Spring, 50/1 Carsington
50/1 Daraybad.

This is a selling hurdle over 19f. Before I ran a few profiles I'd have expected to find LABOREC excellent statistically as a last time out winner and BRING SWEETS poor as the lighter raced 4 year old. That isnt the case. I looked at the record of horses like LABEROC winning selling hurdles last time out. Overall a good record but none had more than 13 career starts like him and none were aged 8 or more as he is. He is still a positive but it wasn't the strong profile I felt it might have been. BRIGHT SWEETS also came out better than I felt he would. I am happy to oppose ANTOELLA a 4yo filly with limited experience. Overall I felt the track is likely to help ABSTRACT ART and although he was beaten by LABOREC last time he has a solid profile and will relish the step down in distance. I'd be with ABSTRACT ART e/w

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LINGFIELD 1.20

Bet On Winning Distances At bluesq.com
Amateur Riders´ Handicap (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 1m4f

4/1 William´s Way, 5/1 Edgeworth, 6/1 Squad, 8/1 Barodine
8/1 Irish Jugger, 8/1 Sir Boss, 9/1 Relative Strength
10/1 Buddy Holly, 10/1 Taste The Wine, 14/1 My Mate Mal
20/1 Farleigh, 33/1 Set To Go, 33/1 Tecktal
50/1 Corlough Mountain.

The 1.20pm is an Amateur Riders Handicap over 12f and it
is bad enough being relient on luck and tactical issues at the best of times here without inexperienced jockeys. I was not keen on WILLIAMS WAY who won recently over 14f. Its
a different trip and track today and a better race and I can't find a horse his age coming back in trip after winning. The best option could be anywhere as I don't see great profiles. I didnt like EDGEWORTH as an exposed horse winning at 10f last time. The only horses winning like that were older and had more backclass. SQUAD had just an average profile. I can't rule out BUDDY HOLLY but there is a stamina doubt there and he looks unsafe. RELATIVE might
lack fitness. BARODINE and MY MATE MAL do not look right. SIR BOSS does not convince me coming down from a 1m race and well beaten in that race. Not many that can win this. IRISH JUGGER is one of the few that I could shortlist.
Overall I felt SQUAD and IRISH JUGGER had the most to
like. I will go with a Win bet on SQUAD and a place bet on
IRISH JUGGER but these are guesses and out of my comfort
zone here in a race where ridership matters more than stats.

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BANGOR 1.25

10/11 Credit Swap, 11/8 Palace Jester, 11/1 Harry Hunt
14/1 Kayfton Pete, 25/1 Backstreet Billy, 28/1 Timber Treasure 40/1 Past Gambles, 40/1 Tait´s Clock, 50/1 Royal Patriot 50/1 Stays All Night.

This Novice Hurdle looks a match especially with the 4yo
HARRY HUNT flopping last time. CREDIT SWAP has to
be respected being so smart on the Flat and he has won over
hurdles and has a positive profile. PALACE JESTER though
is more experienced and comes out slightly better so I would rather be with PALACE JESTER. This does scream an each way double though. I need an each way double for the 2.05pm at Chepstow where I like STATE BENEFIT. I would suggest an each way double finishing with him later on but starting with PALACE JESTER in this race as he looks the best bet.

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CHEPSTOW 1.30

5/4 Our Father, 7/2 Upthemsteps, 7/1 Listenlook 8/1 Roalco
De Farges, 9/1 Gorgehous Lliege, 10/1 Thehillofuisneach
12/1 Thomas Wild, 20/1 Beat All Out, 33/1 Sandy´s Double
40/1 Dont Worry, 40/1 Kaygeekay, 50/1 Fresher Fishing
100/1 Manics Man, 200/1 Ledbury Star, 200/1 Semelay.

This is a Novice Hurdle. It does look a match. I didnt think ROALCO DE FARGES did enough last time and it might be
asking a lot for LISTENLOOK to win first time. The betting
suggests OUR FATHER a decent prospect ought to win with
the only serious danger being UPTHEMSTEPS. Whilst it is
likely OUR FATHER could improve enough to win there is
no great advantage betting him statistically. I looked at the record of 5 year olds winning Maiden Hurdles on their only start and found a 0-1 record with that horse coming 3rd. It is not conclusive obviouslly but I also ran UPTHEMSTEPS profile and the only 2 similar horses finished W 4 and that's enough to stop me betting the favourite at odds on. If I had to bet here it would either be a split stake bet with a win bet on OUR FATHER and a place bet on UPTHEMSTEPS both around 4/6 or I'd just take the place bet. That appeals more to me than the favourite does at odds on.

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LINGFIELD 1.50

Ashdown Forest Selling Handicap
(CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-60) 2m

10/11 Wyeth, 4/1 Olivino, 6/1 Henry Holmes
7/1 Acropolis, 8/1 Baggsy, 10/1 Pinsplitter
14/1 Primera Rossa , 14/1 Sovereign Spirit.

The 1.50pm is a Selling Handicap over 2 Miles. The striking
thing about this race is that we have a 60 rated WYETH who
only faces a 0-47 Class field and that tells me he could be just better class than these. Statistically WYETH is unsafe as he hasn't run in 10 weeks and comes from a 12f seller. I wouldnt worry too much about his failings given the 0-47 class field. There are some weaker profiles. OLIVINO and ACROPOLIS are both 10 year olds. They both have to come up from 12f as well. ACROPOLIS has not won in 6 and a half years and was beaten in this race last year. OLIVINO has also got a 4f rise in distance and does that with no backclass at all and a sire thats 0-46 with all his runners over 14f and more so I'd not be convinced of his stamina. HENRY HOLMES has had just 1 race since last June and may lack fitness. I dont have a positive runner against WYETH and it would not surprise me if WYETH was able to outclass this level of opposition. Its dissapointing he is such a short price now but it reflects
his superiority and I think WYETH will win this race.

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CHEPSTOW 2.05

10/11 Join Together, 3/1 State Benefit, 5/1 King Of Dubai
11/2 Super Villan, 20/1 Russian Song, 25/1 Power Lord
66/1 Otter Mist, 100/1 Oscar The Myth, 100/1 Rathconrath
100/1 Ruttan Lake, 200/1 City Well.

This is a 3m Novice Hurdle. I suppose it's reasonable that
having placed in a Graded race last time JOIN TOGETHER
deserves to be favourite. This won't be a simple race to win and I quite liked STATE BENEFIT. All similar 6 year olds with his profile finished W 4 W 3 W from 5 runners. I'd be more interested in STATE BENEFIT in an each way double. I wouldn't worry about betting him each way myself even at 5/2 if I had to but I will select him and suggest the each way double as an option. His profile is at least as good as the fav.

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BANGOR 2.25

Weddings In The Paddock
Novices´ Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4)
(4yo+ 0-115) 3m

7/4 Morcambe, 5/1 Rebel Swing, 5/1 Stonethrower
7/1 Gunna Be A Devil, 7/1 Kingsmere, 10/1 Money Finder
20/1 Okafranca, 20/1 Pie At Midnight, 25/1 Musical Wedge
33/1 Quizwork.

This is a 3m Novice Handicap Hurdle. Complicated races.
I felt KINGSMERE was underraced with just 2 career starts.
I dont want MONEY FINDER as a mare seasonal debutant.
as none have won this. Hard to judge MORCAMBE but he
is not for me as 6 year olds that came from Novice Hurdles
without any Graded Class form were only 2-71 and those
running within a month were 0-42. PIE AT MIDNIGHT
OKAFRANCA and MUSICAL WEDGE did not do enough
last time. I respect STONETHROWER but he is lightly
raced this year and with a tough weight I had him down as
unsafe. REBEL SWING has a chance but another that wasn't
quite right. In the end there are no strong profiles with my best perhaps GUNNA BE A DEVIL and QUIZWORK. The
market move for QUIZWORK takes the eye so I will risk
him first time out as he is lightly raced and I found 1 winner like him.

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CATTERICK 2.45

Golden Wedding Handicap Hurdle
(CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-120) 3m1f110y

3/1 Everaard, 4/1 Mac Aeda, 5/1 Cool Operator
7/1 Ballymacduff, 8/1 Sphinx, 9/1 Playing The Field
10/1 Devotion To Duty, 10/1 Worth A King´s
16/1 Currahee, 25/1 Goffa Crag.

This is a Handicap Hurdle just short of 3m 2f. There
has been 14 past renewals of this race and 117 similar
races elsewhere. It's interesting 5 year olds are 0-14 in
this race. I looked at all Male 5 year olds in 117 similar
races that had never run in Graded class before and the
record was just 1 winner from 69 runners and that sole
winner did not come from Handicaps. I am surprised a
bit by that but 5 year olds without top class backclass
dont score well in these races so I am going to oppose
EVERAARD who won last week but who is also taking
a step up in Class. DEVOTION TO DUTY is also one
to avoid as a 5yo as is WORTH A KING´S. None of
the 117 winners were as old as SPHINX so as he is 13
and has a nasty absence he is opposed. CURRAHEE is
exposed and has a nasty absence and looks wrong and
I don't like GOFFA CRAG either. I am not convinced
by PLAYING THE FIELD with 1 run this season and
an absence. Plenty to respect with COOL OPERATOR
but he has plenty to prove as well. Not least an absence
and a step up in trip. He's not strong enough statistically
to interest me with a high weight. I have 2 good profiles

SHORTLIST

MAC AEDA - Comes out well despite plenty of weight
BALLYMACDUFF - Decent profile and Chance

SELECTION

BALLYMACDUFF 5/1

Each Way

I think he is the best option here. He was fancied to beat
Everaard last week but he pulled up very early as his saddle slipped. He is still unexposed and could improve and with a consistent record he appeals more than anything else.

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LINGFIELD 2.50

Marriott Hotel At Lingfield Park Handicap
(CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-52) 6f

4/1 Black Baccara, 5/1 Grand Honour, 7/1 Bubbly Bellini
7/1 Chantilly Jewel, 9/1 My Best Man, 10/1 Force To Spend
10/1 Memphis Man, 10/1 Raimond Ridge, 10/1 Rightcar
12/1 Only A Game, 12/1 Seeking Rio, 16/1 Vertumnus.

This is a very trappy 6f handicap for 0-57 rated horses.
I have problems with BLACK BACCARA as a 4yo filly
who won a 5f race last time especially when exposed as
well. I found 1 winner like her but that horse had more
backclass and didn't win last time or have to carry the
penalty. I'm opposing her. CHANTILLY JEWEL also
has to go as another filly from a 5f race with no strong
level of backclass. ONLY A GAME doesnt look fit and
ready to win. SEEKING RIO has a weak profile and has
to be too inexperienced for a filly to step up in distance.
I can't match RAIMOND RIDGE to a winner. I was not
convinced about BUBBLY BELLINI with his absence.
Horses aged 4 like RIGHTCAR winning at 5f last time
out were all less exposed when winning and I could not
find an exposed 4yo like him coming from a 5f race if
they had no backclass in at least a Class 3 Grade and he
has not been anywhere near that. FORCE TO SPEND
was a close call but she is a maiden filly with not much
backclass and I couldn't match her to any winners.

SHORTLIST

GRAND HONOUR - Unsafe but probably one to respect
MY BEST MAN - Shortlistable but he has a 0-23 record
MEMPHIS MAN - Good profile but 1-39 on sand so far
VERTUMNUS - Better profile than many and shortlisted

SELECTION

VERTUMNUS 10/1

Each Way

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BANGOR 2.55

7/4 Arctic Actress, 15/8 Koultas King, 11/2 Tarn Hows
12/1 Naranga, 16/1 Next Man In, 16/1 Vintage Star
20/1 Money Tree, 20/1 Vision Of Lights, 25/1 Ruze
25/1 Wychwoods Kaddy, 33/1 Royal Daffodil
33/1 Sky Artist.

This is a Maiden Bumper over 17f. The favourite is the
Nicky Henderson unraced 4yo filly ARCTIC ACTRESS.
I have learnt the hard way not to make Henderson 4yo's
negatives in Bumpers but I looked at all similar races at
this time of year and found unraced 4yo fillies had a 0-34
record. I wonder if KOULTAS KING wouldnt be a safer
option. Watch the market and see how it develops and
it will be interesting to see if that 0-34 record proves to
be a warning sign for ARCTIC ACTRESS. We can only
guess but KOULTAS KING comes out better statistically.

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CHEPSTOW 3.05

Lindley Catering Handicap Chase
(CLASS 5) (5yo+ 0-95) 3m

9/2 Billy Murphy, 5/1 Dromore Hill, 11/2 Wasntme
8/1 Guydus, 8/1 Macmar, 9/1 Lady De La Vega
9/1 Randolph O´brien, 10/1 Mr Chippy, 12/1 Cold Harbour
16/1 Daring Approach, 20/1 Zimbabwe, 33/1 Kiltimoney.

* This is a 3m Handicap Chase for 0-85 rated horses
* There are 532 similar races in January and Febuary
* LADY DE LA VEGA is a 7yo Mare and they won 5 races
* None had under 9 career starts like her
* 7yo Mares with 1-2-3-4 runs that season were 0-31
* LADY DE LA VEGA fails that and only has 2 runs
* 7yo Mares with No Grade 1 form before struggled
* Those that had 11st or more had a 0-28 record
* LADY DE LA VEGA fails that and is not for me
* GUYDUS is also a 7yo Mare
* She also looks underraced this year with 2 runs
* We know Mares aged 7 with under 5 runs that year are 0-31
* She also has more weight than ideal for a 7yo Mare
* MR CHIPPY comes from 2 Miles and a Novice Hurdle
* Horses that came from 2m races won 4 of the 532 races
* Those with under 13 career starts were 0-40
* MR CHIPPY only has 3 career starts
* Horses aged 6-7-8 comin from 2m races were 0-44
* MR CHIPPY fails that as a 7 year old
* Horses like him from 2m Novice Hurdles had a 0-19 record
* There are 4 winners coming from a 2m race
* They all had more backclass than him and ran within a month
* MR CHIPPY has a long absence and just looks wrong
* Exposed seasonal debutants won 6 races
* Those aged 11 or more have a 1-55 record
* MACMAR doesnt appeal as a 11 yo debutant
* No seasonal debutant has won this race before
* All MACMAR's wins were also on right handed tracks
* Exposed horses with 1 run this season struggled
* ZIMBABWE is 11 with 1 run this season
* Without a win since 2007 he isn't for me
* RANDOLPH O´BRIEN is exposed and comes from 2m 5f
* I looked at exposed 11 year olds doing that
* I found 9 winners but all had more backclass
* Those without form in at least a Class 2 Grade were 0-58
* RANDOLPH O´BRIEN hasnt been in Class 2 grade yet
* Those like him with 1-2-3 runs this year had a 2-70 record
* Both had more backclass and ran better than him last time
* RANDOLPH O´BRIEN doesn't come out that well
* DARING APPROACH comes from a Beginners Chase
* No horse managed that coming from 18f or shorter
* Well beaten in that race he looks opposable
* COLD HARBOUR is 7 from a Handicap Chase
* I looked at all similar horses with 13 + runs
* I found 4 winners but only 1 had more than 11st (1-16)
* None had his weight but I dont see him as a negative
* COLD HARBOUR is a possible but the weight bothers me

SHORTLIST

* KILTIMONEY is an exposed 11yo with only Class 3 form
* He pulled up last time out and I have found 4 similar winners
* 3 were lightweights last time and I can't rule him out
* His last 4 runs here were 3-2-2-2
* I tipped him each way last October over this course and distance
* I have to ignore a couple of poor races
* Statisticall though KILTIMONEY is fine
* Probably wont win but he shouldnt be 20/1 +

* WASNTME is an exposed 8yo
* He has never been in Class 2 or higher
* He has 4-5 runs this season
* WASNTME has also ran within 7 weeks
* Male horses with that profile had a brilliant record
* There were 30 that tried and 11 managed to win
* The only problem is none came from 2m 5f or shorter
* Those like him that did had a 0-2 record finishing F 3
* Neither were fancied so I'd see him as a positive

* DROMORE HILL comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* I looked at 7 year olds doing that without form past Class 4
* I looked at those coming from 3m or longer last time
* I looked at those with 7-12 career starts
* I found a 3-20 record
* DROMORE HILL has a strong profile

* BILLY MURPHY has an excellent profile
* I found several winners like him and like him

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CHEPSTOW 3.40

2/1 Najca De Thaix, 4/1 Sherwani Wolf, 10/1 Round The Horn
10/1 Yetholm, 12/1 Flowonlovelyriver, 12/1 Graduation Night
16/1 The Boss, 16/1 The Clyda Rover, 20/1 Be Ashored
20/1 Giovanna, 20/1 Mae Cigan, Oscar Close, 20/1 Timetoring
33/1 Gouranga, 33/1 Walls Way, 33/1 Watch Out.

This is a very difficult Handicap Hurdle. My angles tell me
to oppose the favourite NAJCA DE THAIX but it is hard to
see a safe alternative. I looked at all exposed horses aged 8 or more that won a Handicap Hurdle in the last 2 weeks just as NAJCA DE THAIX has done. I found a 0-17 record with these horses. None won and None managed to come second as as he is a 10 year old I felt the better bet was to oppose him with an each way alternative. There are too many here that are lightly raced and progressive. THE BOSS didnt come out as well as I'd have hoped. THE CLYDA ROVER looks a possible as does YETHOLM and SHERWANI WOLF. Hard to nail down an alterative but NAJCA DE THAIX looks one to avoid and my best guess would be YETHOLM each way.

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