Friday May 20th

No Strong Bet Today


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5 Advised Bets Today


1) Bath 3.10 - FIRE CRYSTAL 4/1 Win Bet

2) Yarmouth 3.20 - INTEGRIA 4/1 Each Way

3) Bath 4.10 - TIMOCRACY 7/4 Win Bet

4) Catterick 7.50 - DESERT STRIKE 7/2 Win Bet

5) Each Way Treble on the following horses

TIMOCRACY - FIRE CRYSTAL - DESERT STRIKE



Very dissapointed I have not made any of these a strong
bet today. 3 of them are just about good enough to be so.

FIRE CRYSTAL

He was almost a strong bet. I dont like the fact he was
9/1 in the paper and expected at 7/1 yet 2 non runners
neither of which I fancied have reduced him to 4/1. Its
also annoying the non runners change the draw bias as
well. Well worth a bet but at the price he is just standard.

INTERGRIA
I could easily have dropped him as I had enough bets on
the day. I did not consider him for a stronger bet. Unsure
just how much I can trust him but my angle say dont be
afraid to take on the favourite and he should go close.


TIMOCRACY

He is a Serious bet for me. I think the race has a wrong
favourite and this horse complicated and quirky as he is
has an outstanding chance. Not big enough to consider
as a strong bet. What I didnt want to do is get winners
at bigger prices and get lumbered with the shorter price
loser. Mind Games. Confident he can win this race.


DESERT STRIKE

I have him as a Potential Strong bet. The only reason he
is not is that he was 9/2 and is now 7/2 and he will be 3/1
for most people and we have lost some value. I am going
to keep him as a standard bet as he has no Catterick form
as well and thats just one added problem. Fancy him strong.



EACH WAY TREBLE

Probably some petulance as I am annoyed I havent gone
wih a strong bet. That said I fancy all 3 strongly for the
reasons given. We dont have enough multiple bets and I
think its worth a go. Not bothered at all that we may be
in races with under 8 runners. Should be 66/1 and that is
reason enough to risk a small staked each way treble.



* Personal Bets to smaller stakes
* These are extra bets I have or will have myself
* Yarmouth 2.50 - Selinda to beat First Bid match bet
* Catterick 6.20 - Kyzer Chief 10/1 win bet
* Catterick 7.50 - Desert Strike to beat Mr Wolf match bet

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Message Thoughts


You can get great messages that did not deserve to be
so and bad messages that turn out as outstanding with
the luck factor that runs though this vile game. Never
easy to predict how daily message will go but I will be
very dissapointed if today's doesn't do extremely well.

It is a long one. Rich in negatives and positives. Feels
very good to me but you never really know so should
be an interesting days racing and I do have big options.



S A T U R D A Y


Fierce cards and big field tomorrow so it will be almost
impossible to do a big message accurately. I may have
to shorten things tomorrow as it will probably be the
hardest message of the season so far given field sizes.

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Wednesday's Summary

One of those days where time pressures left little time
for decision making with the selections as I was trying
to finish off the message. PITKIN was my sole bet on
the day and He dissapointed. When I saw him unsettled
and playing up in the stalls the writing seemed to be on
the wall. Not sure whether that was a cause or symptom
of a below par run but something wasn't right with him.
It was never going to be an easy day with Haydock and
some big fields. We got some punches in and connected
with a few winners but overall it was probably an under
par message and although we battled well but came off
second best. Steering detailed messages home each day
requires a bit of luck and good timing and it was one of
those days where I did not get it right with the bet and
the bottom of the message did well but just not enough.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



Y a r m o u t h 2.20

9/4 Mosaicist, 3/1 Outsmart, 4/1 Celestyna, 11/2 Intiqaal
8/1 Ducal, 16/1 Polish Sunset, 20/1 Merrjanah
25/1 Beechcraft Baron, 25/1 Sannibel, 33/1 Grayfriars.

Not the most pleasant of races to start the message and
this all aged maiden is a race I can only take a guess in.
I thought MOSAICIST was unimpressive statistically so
starting 50/1 last time I'd look elsewhere. Horses aged 4
like INTIQAAL struggled when lightly raced and running
this year. This pair look opposable but it will depend on
how good the unraced horses are. My suggestion would be
to avoid this pair. OUTSMART seemed very weak early
in the betting almost too weak for a Godolphin horse so
he clearly isnt anything special. That said his price being
larger means his place price will be bigger as well. I'd see OUTSMART as a place only bet if he goes to 4/6 or more.



H a y d o c k 2.30

2/1 Man Of God, 4/1 Grumeti, 8/1 Lady Chloe
8/1 Tenby Lady, The Bells O Peover, 12/1 Pandoro De Lago
12/1 Piave, 14/1 Standout, 20/1 Atlas Shrugged
20/1 Enriching, 20/1 Mia Madonna, 33/1 Strewth.

* This is a 3yo Handicap over 10f
* There are 112 similar races at this time of year
* MAN OF GOD has a shaky profile
* I looked at all 3yo handicaps in May at 9f and more
* There were 332 of these races in Class 4-5-6
* I researched seasonal debutants from 2yo maidens
* Those with under 3 career starts were 0-22
* MAN OF GOD fails that and I am looking elsewhere
* TENBY LADY is a filly with 3 runs from a 2yo maiden
* Similar horses had a 2-67 record
* None won or placed last time and none had her weight
* ENRICHING - His absence hurts his profile
* LADY CHLOE is a filly from a maiden
* Fillies doing that with 4 + runs are 1-66
* LADY CHLOE didnt do enough in that maiden
* MIA MADONNA fails the same statistic
* Not for me as a filly from a maiden
* ATLAS SHRUGGED - Comes out badly
* THE BELLS O PEOVER - I cant match him to a winner
* STREWTH - Not a negative but others look better
* STANDOUT - Unimpressive profile
* All winners down in trip with 9 + runs differed
* They all had at least 7 runs that season

S h o r t l i s t

* PIAVE - 1 similar winner and a positive
* PANDORO DE LAGO comes out very well
* Horses winning maidens with 3-4 runs score well
* GRUMETI - Good solid profile
* GRUMETI would be my saver around 9/2
* PANDORO DE LAGO the selection at 6/1




B a t h 2.40

7/4 Sasheen, 7/2 Fire King, 4/1 Bold Cross
6/1 Aviso, 6/1 Fifty Cents, 16/1 Pytheas.

* This is an 8f Handicap for 0-76 rated horses
* AVISO was well beaten over 7f last time
* I felt he had too much to do
* FIRE KING wouldnt be my first choice first time out
* He has limited backclass for a debutant
* Carrer high mark and all his wins later in the year
* I always like to miss horses drawn 1 here anyway
* FIFTY CENTS has a long absence for a 7yo
* No horse his old managed that when unexposed
* He looks unsafe to me
* PYTHEAS - Not running well enough
* SASHEEN - Not the most impresssive profile
* I ran SASHEEN's profile as a filly and got a 1-40 record
* BOLD CROSS comes down in trip with 1 run this year
* Exposed horses doing that were just 1-44
* He is well treated and should go close though
* I didn't like any profiles in this race
* Forced to choose it would be BOLD CROSS


Y a r m o u t h 2.50

6/4 First Bid, 3/1 Selinda, 3/1 She´s Cool Too
5/1 Tumbleowtashoes, 33/1 Masivo Man.

There are not enough 2yo sellers to draw any firm
conclusions about what to bet here. MASIVO MAN
doesnt look right. TUMBLEOWTASHOES might
win and unraced horses do but I will go with a horse
with experience. If you ask me whether I'd rather
have a once raced male like FIRST BID or a twice
raced filly like SELINDA or SHE´S COOL TOO I
would rather have the fillies. Given the choice I'd
prefer to be with SELINDA in an open race. She's
got a bit more experience and a more recent race
and a weight advantage. What could be an option
is SELINDA to beat FIRST BID in the match bet.
The price will be odds against and in that bet there
are no worries about the other runners spoiling the
party. Short of that I just prefer SELINDA.



H a y d o c k 3.00

I think REPRESENT will probably win having had a
run unlike DARE TO DREAM the probably danger.
As that run was on a Grade 1 track and she also has
decent entries I would just think she may just have
enough to win this race. She is about right at evens.



Bath 3.10

3/1 Miss Firefox, 5/1 Cadmium Loch
6/1 Fire Crystal, 10/1 Mister Ben Vereen 12/1 Bedibyes
20/1 Kilk, Twilight Express, 33/1 Arctic Reach
33/1 Henrys Air, 33/1 No Refraction, 50/1 Maxiyow.

* This is a 3yo handicap over a Mile
* There are 49 similar races at this time of year
* I think I'd rather be drawn high
* I looked at Handicaps here with 11 + runners
* Recent winners came from the following stalls
* 11 7 11 7 13 15 14 8 7
* There were 27 of these races since 2009
* Horses drawn in stall 1 and stall 2 were 0-48
* CADMIUM LOCH is drawn in Stall 2
* I wasnt keen on his profile or his draw
* He comes here winning a 7f handicap last time
* Winners came from 7f races but none won last time (0-10)
* Horses placing over 7f last time were only 1-25
* He won at 33/1 last time but doesnt appeal much
* MAXIYOW has a horrible profile up in trip
* Horses from 6f races had a weak profile
* All 48 fillies like NO REFRACTION lost
* Horses that ran over 6f this year were 0-73
* The only winners from 6f came from 2yo maidens
* MISTER BEN VEREEN has run over 6f this year
* Horses from 6f races with 5 or more runs were 0-50
* HENRYS AIR fails that with 12 career runs
* No seasonal debutants won with 5 or more runs anyway
* HENRYS AIR also fails that
* KILK is a filly from a 2yo maiden with 3 runs
* Similar horses had a 1-17 record
* That winner was absent less time and came from 8f
* She isnt too bad but I prefer others
* TWILIGHT EXPRESS - Not for me as filly from 11f
* ARCTIC REACH doesnt look right from a claimer
* BEDIBYES is a filly from a 7f handicap
* There were 2 fillies that managed that
* Both had 1 run this year and she has 4 runs
* Both had more backclass as well
* BEDIBYES has a bit to prove
* MISS FIREFOX is a filly from a 8f handicap
* Fillies doing that had a 3-63 record
* Those with 4 runs like her were 0-13
* Those with 1-2-3 runs that year were 1-46
* That winner had a more recent run
* I'd have liked at least 1 more run for her
* FIRE CRYSTAL is a filly from a 8f handicap
* Fillies doing that had a 3-63 record
* Those with 1-2-3 runs that year were 1-46
* She is the right type to do that with her profile
* Those running recently with 5-8 runs were 1-5
* I like the fact he won his only race at Bath
* FIRE CRYSTAL looks a good each way bet


Y a r m o u t h 3.20

2/1 Hecton Lad, 7/2 Integria, 9/2 Cane Cat
11/2 Grey Boy, 10/1 Colinca´s Lad, 11/1 Join Up
16/1 Hotfoot, 20/1 Filibuster, 25/1 Graceful Spirit
33/1 Rileys Crane, 40/1 Avec Moi, 40/1 Baby Judge.

This is a Mile Handicap. There look 8 realistically
that might win. I would oppose the 4 outsiders.

* CANE CAT is an exposed 4yo filly from a 7f race
* No fillies won coming from a 7f race when exposed
* Any horse winning a 7f race last time lost
* 40 horses did this and all 40 lost trying at a Mile
* CANE CAT has a bad profile and her absence hurts
* HECTON LAD didn't impress me with his profile
* He is a 4yo male winning an 8f handicap last time
* 4 year olds with that profile won 5 races
* All 5 had 13 or more career runs and he has just 8 runs
* Those like HECTON LAD with less were 0-8
* All the 4yo's that won again had several more runs
* Most of the 4yo winners had a more recent run as well
* HECTON LAD is technically not safe
* He also has no form on Grass as well
* FILIBUSTER doesnt look ready to win
* HOTFOOT - Weak profile as filly from 3yo handicap
* COLINCA´S LAD is a seasonal debutant aged 9
* No horse as old as him was absent as long as him

S h o r t l i s t

* GREY BOY has to be considered
* JOIN UP is respected as well
* INTEGRIA has the best profile for me
* He looks a Good each way bet
* Wont be easy to beat HECTON LAD if he handles turf
* His profile says he should be trusted to do that each way

Selection - INTEGRIA Each Way 4/1





H a y d o c k 3.30

I thought this was difficult as not many Classfield races
have been run for 3 year olds. I think BASSETT ROAD
is a bit inexperienced. I didnt like NO POPPY much as
a filly with 1 run this year and SERENA´S PRIDE fails
the same angle. I'd avoid these but I havent a clue here.


B a t h 3.40

Ignoring the 5f handicap at 3.40pm Bath. I ran all profiles
in the race and Nothing came out well enough to bet. The
best profile was ATANTIC BEACH but all his wins are on
right handed tracks. If I was betting here and I am not I'd
nave a nibble on him but COLLECT ART who came out
second best on his profile is also respected fitter than most.




Y a r m o u t h 3.50

2/1 Nahab, 9/4 Wallis, 11/2 Babycakes, 15/2 Rosedale
8/1 Night Lily, 10/1 Ela Gorrie Mou, 14/1 Mazamorra.

* This is a Fillies Handicap over a Mile
* Decent race but not many similar races at this time of year
* Not sure how safe any stats are in this small field
* What they show is 4yo seasonal debutants struggle
* First time out 4 year olds had a 0-36 record
* WALLIS fails that record
* BABYCAKES fails that as well
* ROSEDALE and MAZAMORRA also fail that.
* This leaves me with 3 options
* ELA GORRIE MOU only has 1 run this season
* I feel NAHAB or NIGHT LILY will win
* NAHAB - Statistically neutral
* NIGHT LILY - Almost a very good profile
* She just lacks a recent run that would make her perfect
* NAHAB is more progressive
* NIGHT LILY has far better form and gets weight
* Had their been 8 runners NIGHT LILY e/w would be ideal
* With 7 runners I still go with NIGHT LILY
* Her run in the Spring Cup was quite impressive visually
* NIGHT LILY is selected to beat the favourite



H a y d o c k 4.00

11/4 Sergeant Troy, 3/1 Manaaber, 4/1 Agiaal
8/1 Cosmic Moon, 9/1 Enthusing, 12/1 Enlightening
14/1 Sam Nombulist, Another Citizen, 20/1 Oceanway
33/1 Imperator Augustus.

* This is a 3yo handicap over a Mile
* MANAABER doesnt appeal as a filly with 1 run
* Looked at every 3yo handicap in May at every distance
* No filly won with just 1 career start (0-7)
* Not many tried but fillies from 2yo maidens struggled too
* These fillies having under 3 starts were 1-30
* None had 1 run like MANAABER so I look elsewhere
* Not comfortable about calling this with any confidence
* Staying with just the sole negative




B a t h 4.10

6/4 Timocracy, 2/1 Duneen Dream, 7/2 Halyard
8/1 Diddums, 25/1 King Of Connacht.

* HALYARD - Shaky from 3yo handicap and 9 runs
* KING OF CONNACHT - Not offering enough
* DIDDUMS - Lots to prove coming from 7f
* DUNEEN DREAM - Lack of backclass worries me
* Hard to win again lacking backclass absent a month
* TIMOCRACY has far more backclass and is prefered
* TIMOCRACY - I think he will win this
* He has a very smart record round a left handed bend (7-16)
* TIMOCRACY is a confident bet



Y a r m o u t h 4.20

2/1 Batgirl, 7/2 Watch Chain, 9/2 Oh So Spicy
13/2 Swansea Jack, 8/1 Rough Rock, 11/1 Valmina
12/1 Lord Of The Dance, 20/1 Valentino Swing
25/1 Excellent Aim.

This is a 0-70 handicap over 7f. One of those races
where I wonder if the winner will break a statistic so
proceeding with caution. In 175 similar races I looked
at fillies that had one race that season and found that
all 61 that tried lost. That puts me off BATGIRL and
OH SO SPICY both strongly fancied. WATCH CHAIN
was an obvious alternative with the only problem from
a statistical point of view being last time out 4 year old
winners were all unexposed when winning again and he
is not. SWANSEA JACK is an option but I'd have liked
another run this year. In the end I decided one option
was a split stake bet on two decent priced horses that
were well raced this year and that had recent races.

Selection - Half stakes on both horses

ROUGH ROCK 8/1 +
VALMINA 12/1 +


B a t h 4.40

6/4 Annelko, 6/4 Penang Cinta, 8/1 Zagarock
16/1 Telescopic, 20/1 Bussell Along, 20/1 Flamestone
25/1 Darfour, 25/1 Kargarann.

Messy Handicap just short of 12f. I looked at all 4 year
olds like ANNELKO that came down from 13f or more
and wasnt impressed. There are far more 8 year olds who
won with recent runs like PENANG CINTA and as he's
far more backclass I prefer PENANG CINTA of the two.




H a y d o c k 5.00

* Not much I can say in this 10f all aged maiden
* MIJHAAR is odds on and may well win
* COBBS QUAY is a similar price to place
* I'd rather bet him to Place myself of the two options




Y a r m o u t h 5.20

Dedided to leave the 5.20 at Y a r m o u t h alone as I
couldn't get a grip on the race. I did look at 4 year olds
like RANNOCH MOOR that were seasonal debutants. I
found a weak 2-49 profile for the ones like him having
under 9 career starts. RANNOCH MOOR only has three
runs. In that 2-49 record none came from a maiden race
as he does and I felt he was unimpressive statistically and
I'd be looking to oppose him with something each way if
possible. TORRAN SOUND came out badly as well so he
wasnt an option. I'd avoid these two horses but I found a
few others impossible to rate from hurdle races and with
absences so decided to just oppose these two and move on.



H a y d o c k 5.30

I don't see a reason to oppose TENHOO



T o w c e s t e r 5.40

This is a 2m Novice Hurdle. I want to be cautious here
but MANAGEMENT has the superior profile. Normally
I would oppose 4 year olds like BAHIRA that come via
Bumpers with confidence especially the fillies but I am
mindful she won last time and has had 4 career starts.

* I looked at every Novice Hurdle run in May and June
* There are 628 of these races
* Fillies that came from Bumpers had a 1-181 record
* That winner was 5 and won in 1993
* She did win last time and did had 5 career starts
* Only 1 4yo filly who won last time tried to win
* That horse came 4th but not enough tried to be sure
* That tells me I should be cautious with BAHIRA
* I want to oppose her but can't make her a negative
* MANAGEMENT does have a good profile
* I prefer MANAGEMENT at 2/1 give the choice




C a t t e r i c k 6.20

15/8 Boy The Bell, 6/1 Red River Boy, Spirit Of Coniston
8/1 Choc´a´moca, 8/1 Kyzer Chief, 8/1 Tournedos
10/1 Ridley Didley, 14/1 Call The Law, 33/1 Blue Rum
66/1 Edge End, 66/1 Lambrini Lace.

* This is a 5f Apprentice Handicap
* I have looked at all 5f handicaps for all riders
* BOY THE BELL did not come out well
* He is an exposed 4yo from a 6f race with no Group Class
* Similar 4 year olds had a 1-60 record in all similar races
* Those that were male like him were 0-42
* Those that came from handicaps like him were 0-51
* No 4yo won either last time over 6f
* BOY THE BELL is a bad favourite
* RED RIVER BOY is also opposed
* I looked at exposed seasonal debutants
* They all had form in at least 2 Grades higher than him
* BLUE RUM - EDGE END - LAMBRINI LACE are weak
* CALL THE LAW looks a vulnerable mare
* TOURNEDOS - Think he needs at least 1 more run this year

S h o r t l i s t

* CHOC´A´MOCA - Hard to read but shortlistable
* Normally that is a poor draw he has
* There was a recent winner that won from a higher draw
* First run for a new yard he is slightly unsafe
* SPIRIT OF CONISTON is just about ok
* His track form and runs this year make him safe enough
* RIDLEY DIDLEY - Just about ok but comes from a seller
* That worries me and makes it hard to match him
* KYZER CHIEF has the strongest profile for me
* Down in Class I'm inclined to give him the vote
* KYZER CHIEF each way the selection



C a t t e r i c k 7.50

7/2 Verinco, 9/2 Desert Strike, 9/2 Mr Wolf
6/1 Green Manalishi, 6/1 Select Committee
8/1 Taurus Twins, 10/1 Bronze Beau, 14/1 Ryedane
25/1 Insolenceofoffice.

* This is a 5f handicap for horses rated 0-80
* There are 212 similar races at this time of year
* Horses aged 9 or more coming from 5f struggle
* Horses aged 9 or more have a weak 2-170 record
* Those that come from 5f races are 0-145
* GREEN MANALISHI fails that 0-145 record
* MR WOLF and RYEDANE are also aged 9 and 10
* Both horses come from 5f races
* No horse their age won dropping from 7f to 5f
* MR WOLF and RYEDANE look negatives as well
* INSOLENCEOFOFFICE is weak aged 3 well beat last time

P o s s i b l e s

* VERINCO is an exposed 5 year old from a 5f handicap
* He has raced just twice this season
* I found 8 winners with that profile
* None won when absent more than a Month
* VERINCO has been absent 49 days
* He prefers it a bit softer as well
* I think I can beat him with his absence
* SELECT COMMITTEE - Shortlistable but not quite right
* BRONZE BEAU - Shortlistable but not quite right
* TAURUS TWINS - - Shortlistable but not quite right

S e l e c t i o n

DESERT STRIKE

* Comfortably the best profile in the race
* 3 runs ago he caught my eye at Thirsk
* I know he was not right or fancied that day
* I tipped him each way two runs ago
* He finished 3rd and ran very well
* He drifted that day I think as the rain came late
* The winner came from the other side of the track
* The second came out and won yesterday
* DESERT STRIKE was second last time out
* I made him a negative that day and he ran well
* Today I like his profile and fancy him to win



C a t t e r i c k 8.50

I think PHILHARMONIC HALL will win back in trip

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