No Strong Bet



T o d a y 's S e l e c t i o n

No Bet Today


Non runners messing me about. Decided with the rain
coming down I should have a blank day but there were
options that I could easily have advised as a bet today
but I dont see one at a decent price I want to advise.


In the 2.50pm at Yarmouth DASHWOOD is the only
horse in the race with a decent profile and I think He
will win. Not my sort of bet though in a small field at
9/4 but I thought he was worthy of a mention today.

In the 4.20 at Beverley QUANAH PARKER looks a
decent each way bet. I will have a small bet myself as
an interest but I havent sealed the deal or made a big
enough case to stake him today as the selection.

In the 5.20 I am betting MASLAK at 7/1 but having
a saver on KIAN´S DELIGHT at 9/4. My angles are
showing me I have that the wrong way round. They
are hinting MASLAK has too much weight. It might
be right but I'm betting only small so going that way.

The 9.20 at Wolverhampton throws up what looks
a brilliant negative. Not sure any negative can be a
brilliant one if all the other runners in the race have
weak profiles as they do here but my reasons below
demand I try and oppose the favourite. I am having
a saver on GINZAN at 3/1 as there is enough meat
in the prices but MY LOVE FAJER at 7/1 looks to
be the fittest horse and because of that I am on him.


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M e s s a g e T h o u g h t s

I have done a few Yarmouth races as the field sizes are at
least quite managable. Beverley is full of massive fields so looks quite difficult. It has been hammered with rain over a couple of days and more is coming today. The draw bias here is up in the air as well so it looks a place where I need to tread with care. That said there are some races worth a preview and I have done what I can there. Salisbury is not my favourite track and I don't feel I read it very well and it wasn't a card I liked much at all. I am ignoring all of it. There was one Wolverhampton race I liked and one very interesting negative in the last race and that sums it up.

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T u e s d a y s S u m m a r y

I went with ELHAMRI as my bet yesterday with the saver
on COMMANDER WISH. They came second and third so
a little frustrating. Not outrageous to think we deserved to come out of the race a lot better. I got all the short priced horses beaten. The statistics or at least 90% of them were spot on and worked out well and opened the race up. From two selections we had the 2nd and 3rd both freely available at more than 10/1 before the start. I even said I would have rather had the win and place bet which would have made a profit on the day but was restricted in that. In the end the early pace of the winner was just too much. Not bitter by any means but felt it was a good effort and getting such a lot right in the race I just thought we deserved a bit more. Perhaps it was just the staking that was the problem.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



B e v e r l e y 2.10

4/1 Bolodenka, 11/2 Ginger Grey, 11/2 Monthly Medal
11/2 Opus Maximus, 15/2 Bonnie Prince Blue, 15/2 Fault
10/1 Meandmyshadow,14/1 Benidorm 14/1 Mark Anthony
66/1 Bigalo´s Laura B

The problem with this Claimer is that it's over 7.5f so I feel I should include 7f and 8f races and the draw doesnt help us as both very low and very high numbers have won recently. I have taken out all the usual suspects in these races like the badly weighted and the unfit and inexperienced. I didnt see a good case for MONTHLY MEDAL with a break. I narrowed this down to Six. MARK ANTHONY fell a bit short of ideal. GINGER GREY has a chance but I'd have liked one more run this season. BONNIE PRINCE BLUE could have done with a run in the past two weeks. OPUS MAXIMUS is one to take very seriously. FAULT is respected and in a race of tighter margins than usual I saw BOLODENKA as the best profile.



Y a r m o u t h 2.20

Evs Vizean, 15/8 Mrs Greeley, 13/2 Maz
8/1 A´faal, 20/1 Dolly Bay, 33/1 Femme Royale

I am just about persuaded this is a two horse race but neither Vizean or Mrs Greeley had a particularly good profile. So few similar races I have to guess. The ground will probably make the difference. Who handles it better might win. Mrs Greeley is the marginal choice. Not because of any particular reason other than the fact he is a much better price and has gone on the ground before. My suggestion is MRS GREELEY here.


S a l i s b u r y 2.30

Wasnt going to do this race until the favourite pulled out.
I always like a Micheal Pescod maiden second time out so
I think JACOB CATS is the interesting horse her having a
quiet debut on a Grade 1 track and an absence. He's my bet.



B e v e r l e y 2.40

11/10 Ghalaa, 9/4 Ventura Spirit, 6/1 Zavier, 10/1 Curtain Patch 20/1 Swift Encounter, 25/1 Forster Street, 33/1 Eastern Seel 33/1 Sweet Fairnando, 66/1 Iberian Rock.

There look to be 3 runners that have claims of winning this
7f maiden. I thought it was likely VENTURA SPIRIT might
want a faster surface. I suppose GHALAA has to be the most
likely winner but ZAVIER was introduced at a Grade 1 Track
and looks a reasonably hopefully bet each way around 4/1.



Y a r m o u t h 2.50

2/1 Here To Eternity, 2/1 Satwa Laird
11/4 Dashwood, 11/2 Yahafedh Alaih
14/1 Cornish Quest

Small field for this 7f Handicap. If you look at exposed horses down in trip like SATWA LAIRD none had under 5 runs that season and despite looking well handicapped I felt there was a few flaws in his profile. CORNISH QUEST comes out badly as a 3yo with just two runs this season and well beaten in his last race. I did not like YAHAFEDH ALAIH's as a 3yo up in trip. If you take 3yo fillies up in distance those from handicaps are awful (1-56) as are those with under 9 career starts (1-80) so I would be keen to avoid HERE TO ETERNITY. Profile wise it is quite simple. Had Aleqa ran he would have come out best of
all. Now the claer second choice DASHWOOD is the choice.

S e l e c t i o n - DASHWOOD



Y a r m o u t h 3.20

5/2 Scarborough Lily, 11/2 Exopuntia, 11/2 Miss Firefox
13/2 Spartan King, 13/2 Strike A Deal, 8/1 Dannios
8/1 Wodian, 16/1 Chez Vrony, 33/1 Warden Bond
50/1 Carlcol Girl.

This is a low Grade handicap over a Mile. There are 180 of
these races at this time of year. I'd avoid CHEZ VRONY with
just one race since Febuary as he looks short of fitness after a heavy defeat. WARDEN BOND and CARLCOL GIRL havent
achieved nearly enough recently. DANNIOS looks unsafe and
probably underraced this season. I am taking on the favourite.

* SCARBOROUGH LILY is a little unsafe
* She is a filly from a 3yo handicap
* Similar horses were 3-82
* None of these came from 9f or more (0-18)
* None ran in the past fortnight like her (0-32)
* None carries under 9st in weight
* SCARBOROUGH LILY has a poor profile for a favourite

P o s s i b l e s

* STRIKE A DEAL looks poor on her last run
* May have been excuses perhaps the Fibresand
* She needs to bounce back but I cant match her to winners
* EXOPUNTIA is a little short of backclass
* MISS FIREFOX has a poor profile but not a disatrous one.

S h o r t l i s t

* WODIAN is fine statistically
* SPARTAN KING is fine statistically
* WODIANS is suggested as a saver
* SPARTAN KING suggested as the win bet




Y a r m o u t h 3.55

I ran a few profiles and couldnt find any I liked. Decided to leave the race. I thought the horse that came closest to an interesting profile was VIKING ROSE. Token suggestion as a horse with an average profile taking on weaker profiles. I think it will depend on whether he handles the ground today.



B e v e r l e y 4.20

7/2 Fossgate, 9/2 Licence To Till, 6/1 Quanah Parker
8/1 Count Bertoni, 8/1 Gritstone 10/1 Ailsa Craig
10/1 Amazing Blue Sky, 14/1 Petomic

* This is a 0-82 Class Handicap just short of 10f
* There are 352 similar races at this time of year

FOSSGATE is in good form but it was 2006 when he last
won over this distance and I want to oppose him. I can't
find any winner aged 10 like him dropping from 12f let
alone any winning at 12f last time and he just feels a bit
unsafe and unlike any winners. GRITSTONE has a weak
profile with just two wins this year and an absence. The
conditions are unsafe for a filly with a nasty absence so
AILSA CRAIG has to go.I see PETOMIC as vulnerable
well beaten last time and lacking the backclass required.
COUNT BERTONI doesn't have too bad a profile at all
but the handicapper looks in charge with his career high
mark and the ground will test him too.

* AMAZING BLUE SKY has a reasonable profile
* He has a career high mark to overcome
* This is a harder race than when 3rd last time out
* LICENCE TO TILL is comfortably shortlisted
* I had him as third best profile in the race
* Maybe a bit short with better profiles and unproven on soft
* QUANAH PARKER has a good profile and likes it soft
* He does have a career high mark though
* Given that I still see him as the best risk in the race

Selection - QUANAH PARKER Each Way




B e v e r l e y 5.20

3/1 Kian´s Delight, 6/1 Maslak, 6/1 Red Skipper
6/1 Royal Composer, 8/1 Light The City, Master Nimbus
10/1 Deferto Delphi, 10/1 Maybeme, 14/1 Fairy Mist
14/1 Ferney Boy, 100/1 The Midshipmaid.

This is a 12f handicap. Looks open and not convinced
I am right here. I do not like FERNEY BOY's profile. I
see weakness in MAYBEME and FAIRY MIST. I wasnt
keen on ROYAL COMPOSER aged 8 up in distance and
limited backclass. DEFERTO DELPHI is not a negative
but is unsafe and I see a Neutral profile. I like MASLAK
more than my angles do. MASLAK's profile is fine but
all similar winners had less weight and if my stats had a
voice they would be saying stay with KIAN´S DELIGHT
the improving 3 year old. He has to prove himself on a
softer surface but I do like his chance and respect him a
lot. I still like MASLAK though. My theory is that as I
feel I can oppose an unfit MASTER NIMBUS then the
highest rated horse MASLAK faces with a chance is the
55 rated LIGHT THE CITY. I think MASLAK is much
better class than 0-55 and could easily outclass these as
he has a recent race and is very well treated these days.
Can he give 17lbs to the 4yo KIAN´S DELIGHT ? Its
hard to know and the stats suggest the weight may just
beat him. I think the prices allow for the following bet.

Selection

MASLAK 6/1 Win Bet
KIAN´S DELIGHT 11/4 - Saver Bet




Y a r m o u t h 5.30

3/1 Jiwen, 4/1 Golden Slipper,
5/1 Jewelled, 13/2 Midas Moment.

This is a fillies handicap over 9f. I have looked at all these fillies handicaps at 8f 9f 10f. I had GOLDEN SLIPPER and MIDAS MOMENT as horses to oppose. May not be as easy
as that now we have 4 non runners but neither of them had
a good profile. JEWELLED would not be my first choice on
a career high mark giving weight to lots of improvers. I see JIWEN as the best option as imilar horses had a 1-1 record.




B e v e r l e y 5.50

I had KODICIL as vulnerable here. Its a 12f handicap and
3 year old Males like him with just 1-2 runs that year had
a 0-25 record. They also had a 0-27 record when absent 7
weeks or more and I see him as vulnerable. Its a however
a scrappy race with MARKET MAKER very hard to judge
and GREY COMMAND almost very good but just a couple
of lbs higher than ideal. Not sure I can take advantage of
my negative for KODICIL. I felt the best overall profile
belonged to POLITBUREAU so I will go with him.


W o l v e r h a m p t o n 7.50

4/1 Huzzah, 9/2 Orpenindeed, 5/1 Unlimited, 11/2 Tax Break
6/1 Invincible Force, 13/2 Tewin Wood, 12/1 All Right Now
12/1 Sir Bruno, 14/1 The Which Doctor, 20/1 Tedsmore Dame.

This is a 0-80 handicap over 7f. I wanted to oppose the
4yo TAX BREAK who looks inexperienced down in trip
and I could not match him to winners of similar races and
I see him as unsafe. So to is UNLIMITED as a 9 year old
lacking backclass. INVINCIBLE FORCE comes from a 5f
race without a recent run and that puts him in a bad place
statistically. ORPENINDEED may find 81 days absence
is a long time off for an 8yo. SIR BRUNO isnt right and
not for me. TEDSMORE DAME comes out badly. I cant
make TEWIN WOOD a negative but he has been absent
a little bit longer than is ideal and he has to cope with a
career high mark as well. THE WHICH DOCTOR is too
risky at this distance especially with just one race since
May. I like HUZZAH and have found 2 winners with a
similar profile and I shortlist him. Its difficult to know
whether he will appreciate a return to sand or not as he
is very lightly raced on the surface and I have found a
better profile in ALL RIGHT NOW my selection.

* Horses aged 4
* Coming from a 6f race
* Between 9 and 20 runs
* No form beyond a Class 4 race
* At least 8 runs this season
* Similar 4 year olds had a 2-4 record
* I see ALL RIGHT NOW and HUZZAH as best
* HUZZAH could be a saver much as he is unsafe
* ALL RIGHT NOW is the selection around 10/1



W o l v e r h a m p t o n 9.20

6/4 Till Dawn, 5/2 Ginzan, 9/2 Too Many Questions
15/2 Missile Attack, 8/1 My Love Fajer, 16/1 Consistant, 25/1 Renesmee.

* This is a 3yo Handicap over 5f
* TILL DAWN is a warm favourite
* I wanted to try and get him beaten here

* August has seen 336 Handicaps for 3yo's at 5f 6f 7f
* Thats 336 Handicaps in Class 4-5-6-7
* Fillies that had 1 or 2 runs that season won 7 races
* Those however with 7 or more career runs were 0-47
* TILL DAWN fails that statistic
* She has 12 career runs yet just 1 run this season
* This statistic includes fillies with 1-2 runs that year

* July - August - September have 904 Handicaps for 3yo's
* Thats 904 Handicaps over 5f 6f 7f in Class 4-5-6-7
* Fillies that had 1-2 runs that season won 34 races
* Those with 9 or more career starts are just 1-99
* That winner had 2 runs and TILL DAWN has just one

The above statistics show TILL DAWN has a very hard
task with one run this season. These angles take all races
between 5f and 7f in 4 seperate Class bands and over the
three month period July to September. No filly has won
any of 904 races with 1 run that season if they have had
9 or more runs and TILL DAWN fails that with 12 and
looks vulnerable to me. The dilemma is what to go with
as there are no strong profiles here and that undermines
my confidence in opposing TILL DAWN. That said I
must and all I can do is hope I can find the right option.

* RENESMEE looks outclassed.
* CONSISTANT is not matchable to a winner
* He lost by too far last time out
* TOO MANY QUESTIONS is male from a 5f maiden
* Males doing that with 4 + runs were 0-17
* MISSILE ATTACK is male from a 6f maiden
* I Found 2 winners but neither beaten as far as him last time

S e l e c t i o n

GINZAN is hardly safe but the fillies with absences
did come from all aged handicaps like her and I did
find one reasonably similar winner. I think she is a
reasonable saver at 3/1. MY LOVE FAJER lost by
a fair way 3 days ago. He is a bit exposed now to
overcome a big defeat but he did have an excuse in
that race. He swerved violently right at the start
which cost him several lengths. If I overlook that
then his recent run could be a big asset here. I felt
given my main danger was a filly with an absence
he ought to be the choice as the fittest horse.

MY LOVE FAJER 7/1 Win Bet
GINZAN 3/1 Saver

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