T o d a y 's S e l e c t i o n s


No Bet Today

Nightmare message to compile always an hour behind
schedule. Big timing problems and I have been bogged
down with the detail. Very hard to choose a bet today.
I am not as happy with the message as I'd like and it's
showing evidence of being overcooked. I have chances
in a few races but there are some very hard handicaps
today that take a lot of sorting out. I like 3 big priced
horses today that all carry risk but potential rewards.


H a y d o c k 3.10 RYAN STYLE 11/1

Chepstow 4.30 CAPE MELODY 10/1

Chepstow 5.30 BOOKIESINDEX BOY 12/1


I see CAPE MELODY as nothing more than a smaller
interest bet in a small field. RYAN STYLE has a good
chance. He is better than his market position implies
and is worth a small bet. I see BOOKIESINDEX BOY
capable of winning this. I know he is 0-30 so far when
racing on Grass and he clearly isnt as good on turf but
he has a career low mark. He has nearly won this race
in 2009 from a hideous draw. Strange horses win here
and he has to be produced late and this could be just a
right sort of course for him. I think he will Place and
if he gets the right ride and opposition he might win.

I plan a small each way multiple bet. Mainly doubles
and singles. Small stakes but covering all three. It is
unlikely we will get much if anything back but as you
can see at the prices there is scope for a big pay out.

I havent had the time to think through any thoughts
about selections today so leaving it as a blank day as
time has beaten me which can happen on these days.





M e s s a g e T h o u g h t s

Staying with Chepstow and Haydock today. I have had
to leave Brighton alone. There is far more detail at the
Haydock meeting which surprises me. Its disjointed but
I have had timing problems and have been rushed today.


T h u r s d a y 's S u m m a r y

It turned out as I feared yesterday without much success.
I didn't go with a bet suspecting we would be lucky to get
anything out of Redcar or Salisbury. Dissapointed not to
get more from the day though but not surprised. The bet
I nominated as my best went miles clear but might have
gone off too fast. We came off a clear second best.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



H a y d o c k 1.40

4/1 Beauty Pageant, 5/1 Oldjoesaid, 11/2 Bronze Beau
11/2 Lucky Art, 7/1 Nomoreblondes, 7/1 Walvis Bay
10/1 Invincible Lad, 10/1 Mayoman, 12/1 Gottcher
16/1 Foxy Music.

* This is a 0-85 Handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* The Draw may or may not matter too much in a small field
* I can tell you there have been 12 races this year
* Thats 12 Haydock races at 5f with 5 or more runners
* All 12 winners were drawn in Stalls 5 or higher
* Those in stalls 1-2-3-4 have had so far a 0-44 record
* BEAUTY PAGEANT doesnt really interest me
* She is coming from Stall 1 which isnt ideal
* I looked at all 3yo fillies like her
* Only 1 won when as inexperienced as her
* She won last time and hasnt run in 31 days
* Not convinced this is the race or track to follow up
* Statistically unimpressive BEAUTY PAGEANT is out
* LUCKY ART has a weak draw in Stall 2
* Exposed 5yo with an absence I found a 0-49 record
* LUCKY ART may prefer a sharper track as well
* INVINCIBLE LAD could have been better drawn
* He is an exposed 7yo with 5 runs this season
* Overall his profile is just about fine
* I'd have liked more runs this year or a recent run
* I'd have liked a better last run as well
* INVINCIBLE LAD does have a chance
* He has ran 5 times for Dandy Nicholls
* I didnt think his last run showed he was about to win
* I dont think today will be his day
* BRONZE BEAU is an exposed 4yo who lacks backclass
* He also lacks a run in the past couple of weeks
* I found it hard to match him to winners
* Certainly none that had his weight
* His best win came off 76 and now he is off 85
* My gut feeling is his mark will be beyond him
* I looked at exposed mares absent more than a month
* None managed to win aged 6 or more
* NOMOREBLONDES is 7 and absent 42 days
* She is unlike any winners and badly handicapped
* FOXY MUSIC isnt out of this
* I'd prefer a more recent race and a better last run
* There are 7 year olds winning with his profile
* They were all high weighted horses as well
* I think he has enough to shortlist
* I didnt see a horse about to win last time
* GOTTCHER comes from a 3yo handicap
* I ran his profile and found a 2-23 record
* Both winners ran better than he did last time
* They were beaten under 3 lengths and he lost by 7
* Questionable whether GOTTCHER did enough last time
* Its not a disasterous profile though and he's respected
* He will appreciate the ground more today
* Bottom line is he did not run well enough last time
* Not against his own age group

S h o r t l i s t

* WALVIS BAY is similar to 1 winner which surprises me
* I would have prefered more runs this season
* Credit to him last time as he had an awful draw
* Its still just 3 runs this year and 1 run in the last 80 days
* Despite that I have still found a similar winner

* OLDJOESAID is 7 and comes out well
* I dont have problems with him statistically
* Not sure this is the ground he wants though
* I dont feel I can trust him on this ground

* MAYOMAN has a decent chance
* I'd like to change one or two things if I could
* No more than any other runner though
* I ran his exact profile and found 3 similar horses
* They all ran slightly better than he did last time
* Not so worried about that as there are reasons for that
* Hard to read. No serious problems but a few little ones
* I have had him as a negative for most runs this year
* I dont feel there has been a race he could have won
* I do think he can win this and from the front

Selection

MAYOMAN Each Way 9/1



H a y d o c k 2.10

3/1 Pelmanism, 9/2 Liberty Ship, 9/2 Restless Bay
5/1 Pavershooz, 7/1 Beat The Bell, 8/1 Legal Eagle
10/1 The Nifty Fox, Sir Geoffrey, 16/1 Even Stevens.

* This is Division 2 of the 5f Handicap run earlier
* The Draw may or may not matter too much in a small field
* There have been 12 races this year
* Thats 12 Haydock races at 5f with 5 or more runners
* All 12 winners were drawn in Stalls 5 or higher
* Those in stalls 1-2-3-4 have had so far a 0-44 record
* PAVERSHOOZ - Borderline but Draw puts me off
* BEAT THE BELL - Borderline but Draw puts me off
* He badly missed the break last time so is better than that
* RESTLESS BAY - Very exposed for 3yo and unsafe
* Looks likely he will get outpaced and behind
* EVEN STEVENS - Doesnt come out well
* SIR GEOFFREY - His absence means I cant match him

S h o r t l i s t

* PELMANISM - Like 2 winners but not exactly like them
* He has a lot more weight than either of them
* Dont like the career high mark and no wins in this class
* Not convinced this is hisn distance either
* LEGAL EAGLE - Profile not to bad but no wins at 5f
* LIBERTY SHIP - Solid profile but tough rating
* THE NIFTY FOX - Reasonably safe profile
* I dont see a better option at the prices
* He likes a smaller field and a straight track
* This is his time of year as well

Selection

THE NIFTY FOX Each Way




Chepstow 2.30

I couldnt split BEAU DUKE or TITUS STAR
so decided to split stakes with TITUS STAR a
place bet and BEAU DUKE a win bet.



Chepstow 3.00

I thought this was a trappy 8f Handicap. I have some
issues with QUITE A CATCH from a seller. I wouldnt
want DUQUESA or SLUMBERING SIOUX as fillies
with an absence. LAKOTA GHOST has been off too
long. I thought WISHFORMORE and MYBOYALFIE
failed to do enough last time. MAKYAAL is unsafe as
he is down in trip and only has 2 runs this season. I'm
not keen on PRESENT STORY. There were 3 Unsafe
options. TANFORAN is a Positive but has only got a
shaky profile and he is a 9 year old now. DANESIDE
has a fair chance but just one main flaw. He has next
to no backclass at all having never been out of Class 5
before. ADELINA PATTI would be my selection. I'm
happy to find winners like her at other tracks. I'm not
sure Chepstow is the place for a lightly raced filly but
I dont see a better option. ADELINA PATTI for me.



H a y d o c k 3.10

5/1 La Zamora, 6/1 Cornus, 7/1 Klynch, 15/2 Iron Range
8/1 River Falcon, 9/1 Invincible Force, 12/1 Flowing Cape
12/1 Jobe, 12/1 Marvellous Value, 12/1 Red Roar
14/1 Rio Cobolo, 16/1 Tro Nesa, 20/1 Ryan Style.

* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* There are 337 similar races at this time of year
* None of the 337 winners had 1 career run
* IRON RANGE has that to overcome
* He is also a 3yo seasonal debutant
* I found 1 winner with 3 runs but not one
* There was a horse winning an 8f race like him
* He is not a Negative or a Positive
* Given a choice I'd prefer a higher draw as well
* My Negatives are the following horses
* RIVER FALCON - LA ZAMORA -TRO NESA
* RIO COBOLO - FLOWING CAPE - RED ROAR
* MARVELLOUS VALUE doesnt offer me enough
* KLYNCH - Has a very hard task off his rating
* INVINCIBLE FORCE - Chance but I'd like less weight
* CORNUS - Just about a positive
* No hurry to rush to bet a 9yo though
* RYAN STYLE - 1 similar winner
* JOBE has a reasonable profile

Selection

Clearly a wide open sprint handicap. Decided to go with
the horses that came out best statistically despite not the
most obvious in the race. JOBE and RYAN STYLE have
better chances than the market suggests. JOBE looks like
a small bet around 20/1 with RYAN STYLE the main bet.


H a y d o c k 3.40

5/1 Fabreze, 6/1 Ganas, 6/1 Hotham, 6/1 Misplaced Fortune
6/1 Victorian Bounty, 7/1 Jarrow, 12/1 Desert Strike
12/1 Lucky Numbers, 14/1 Ballinargh Girl, 14/1 Red Cape
16/1 Who´s Shirl, 33/1 Tabaret.

* This is a 6f Handicap
* The Following horses have weak profiles
* HOTHAM -Can't have him winning again after an absence
* JARROW - His absence and draw is a problem
* FABREZE - Unorthodox and just 2 runs this season
* RED CAPE - Not for me aged 8 from 5f
* MISPLACED FORTUNE - Underraced this year
* WHO´S SHIRL - Not keen on a mare with absence
* TABARET - Not for me beaten in a seller
* BALLINARGH GIRL - Unnaceptable profile
* DESERT STRIKE - Not out of it but unsafe up in trip

S h o r t l i s t

* GANAS is hard to read with 2 runs
* I have found a winner like him but not at Haydock
* I looked at all handicaps run at Haydock over 5f 6f 7f
* None at ny time of year won with under 4 career starts
* Not sure this is the place to take a very lightly raced horse
* VICTORIAN BOUNTY has a decent profile
* He is close to top of the list
* The main issue for me is will Stall 2 hurt him
* I looked at all handicaps this year here with 9 + runners
* Winners were drawn 8 10 14 1 17 9 14
* 6 of the 7 went to high drawn horses
* There were several drawn very low that placed though
* LUCKY NUMBERS - Decent profile and lots to like
* He wants a Class 4 race and a smallish field
* He has had good excuses recently
* LUCKY NUMBERS could go very well

S e l e c t i o n

LUCKY NUMBERS 12/1 Win Bet
VICTORIAN BOUNTY 9/1 Win Bet



Chepstow 4.00

This is a 7f Selling race. I don't like CONTROL CHIEF
as a 3yo from 5f. MISTER BEN VEREEN came out as
very weak as a well beaten 3yo. NOVABRIDGE comes
up in distance and has plenty to do at the weights. Not
a straight forward race. BARISTA is probably the best
profile in the race marginally from the favourite. He's
entitled to be the selection but on this track I'd be safer
with an older horse so COULD IT BE MAGIC just gets
the verdict in a messy little race priced up correctly.



Chepstow 4.30

This is a fillies handicap over 7f. Not prepared to bet
SWIFT BREEZE as a 3yo with 1 run this season and
I don't feel this is the track for a twice raced female.
LUCKY MEADOWS has a nasty absence. I could not
match MRS GREELEY to a winner from a 6f maiden.
I dont like these 3 and will choose from 3 shortlisted.

TINAHEELY - A Little unsafe but respected
SONG OF THE SIREN - Has a better chance than most
CAPE MELODY - Needed last run and interesting
CAPE MELODY the selection.



Chepstow 5.00

My best guess is MEMPHIS MAN each way


H a y d o c k 5.10

5/1 Take It To The Max, 8/1 The Only Key
10/1 Baptist, 10/1 Barren Brook, 10/1 First Post
10/1 Making Eyes, 10/1 On Her Way, 10/1 Troopingthecolour
12/1 Eltheeb, 12/1 Tres Coronas, 14/1 Breakheart
14/1 Dhaular Dhar, 14/1 Taqleed, 20/1 Colour Scheme
20/1 Tamanaco, 25/1 Snow Dancer.

* This is a 10f Handicap for 0-89 rated horses
* There are 273 similar races at this time of year
* There does look to be a small draw advantage here
* I think Stalls 1-2-3 have the worst draw
* In all handicaps here with 12 + runners none won
* TROOPINGTHECOLOUR has the worst of the draw
* Unorthodox I dont see enough I like to ignore the draw
* SNOW DANCER - Not for me drawn 2
* MAKING EYES has a bad draw in Stall 3
* Her profile is not as bad as it may seem
* She is a filly with a break though and she is risky
* ON HER WAY is a filly with 1 run that season
* No fillies won with 1 run and she also has an absence
* I looked at 4 year olds that came from 8f or shorter
* There were 9 winners aged 4 doing that
* However its interesting they were well beaten last time
* Horses aged 4 that were 1-2-3 last time over 8f were 0-32
* FIRST POST fails that winning at 8f last time
* TAKE IT TO THE MAX also fails that as well
* I see these as unsafe winning last time at 8f
* DHAULAR DHAR - Not for me as a 9yo
* He ran worse last time than any winner his age
* TAMANACO doesnt offer me enough
* TRES CORONAS is 4 absent 69 days
* I looked at all 4 year olds absent 7 + weeks
* Those that had 13 or more career runs were 0-45
* TRES CORONAS has 22 and isn a bit exposed

P o s s i b l e s

* TAQLEED was very dissapointing last time
* I thought he resented his first time visor
* I ran his profile as a 4yo well beaten last time
* I found an unsafe profile but cant rule him out
* I found 4 similar winners but all slightly different
* 2 had very recent runs and 2 had very long absences
* Those that last run 2-6 weeks ago like him are 0-55
* I think he is too unsafe to select
* BREAKHEART has been nibbled in the market
* He has a chance statistically and I respect him
* Right type of 4yo to come from 8f
* The absence is a positive in that light as well
* Cant match him exactly but he has a chance
* ELTHEEB is similar to 1 winner
* Have to make a "Possible" because of that
* Not my favourite stable and I suspect he will fail

S h o r t l i s t

* COLOUR SCHEME comes out well 20/1
* Only 2 runs this year and a long absence
* I have found 2 winners just like him
* Hard to now if fit or fancied. Market says not
* Any money for him later would make him relevant

* BAPTIST has a fair chance
* I Found 1 similar winner and that was at Haydock
* That winner did have less weight than him

* BARREN BROOK has a strong all round profile
* He does look the safest option in the race

Selection

BARREN BROOK 7/1 Win Bet

BAPTIST 10/1 Saver



Chepstow 5.30


9/4 Griffin Point, 3/1 Madam Isshe, 5/1 Ladydolly
15/2 Little Perisher, 15/2 Spic ´n Span, 10/1 Best One
14/1 Bookiesindex Boy, Lithaam, 33/1 What Katie Did
40/1 Lambrini Lace, 66/1 Rich Harvest.

This is a low grade 5f handicap. I couldnt find any
fillies like GRIFFIN POINT coming from maidens.
I wasnt keen on MADAM ISSHE because she has
no backclass. LADYDOLLY doesnt come out too
well. LITTLE PERISHER was hammered at 50/1
in a seller last time. I'd look for an each way bet
against these. BOOKIESINDEX BOY likes this
track and comes out well and despite no wins yet
on Grass could run very well and I like him best.

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