Daily Recommendation

No Bet Today


****************************************************
****************************************************

YESTERDAY'S REVIEW


It turned out much better than I thought it might yesterday. I knew I'd have winners at Lingfield but we got more than I thought there. The best bet DUKE OF RAINFORD won and in style as well after a beautiful late finish from Jamie Spencer and that put the icing on the cake. The each way doubles that I turned down in the end wouldn't have lost any serious money so overall it was strong everywhere and turned out very well.

****************************************************
****************************************************


MESSAGE THOUGHTS


These All weather cards are awful and rightly or wrongly
I have given them a miss apart from one Southwell race
where I'll be very lucky if I get the winner. The races at
Southwell have no shape to them and rather than waste
time there or try and sort Kempton out which is harder
I decided the best plan today would be to concentrate on
the National Hunt Cards. Hereford has passed a morning
inspection but it will be desperated here on heavy ground.


Ten Previews. One at Southwell which is little more than
a hit and hope job. At CATTERICK there are 5 previews.
HEREFORD has 4 previews. Some races will read a little
rushed as some have been because of the inspections. It's
too hard a day and field sizes too big to start predicting an avalanche of winners today so we have to be reaslistic as to how many I can expect to get. After two decent days
and results going well we could be at the Funeral having
had the weddings. Unusual National Hunt tracks as well
so there is more than enough risk today in the message
so don't get carried away and keep realistic with all bets.



I've decided to play it safer today. Go with just the one
selection. There is no way ZITENKA is my most likely
winner today but I have spent a lot of time on this race
and I like my Grand National races and I see plenty that
he has in his favour today and I think I have made more
than a good case for him so I will make him my Nap. It
wont cost a lot to win a few quid at 11/1 and I think I'd
rather wait for more familiar territory before getting a
bit more excited with my stakes. Just for the record my
second best option was MARK TWAIN in the 12.50pm.


Todays Suggested Bet

CATTERICK 2.20

ZITENKA 11/1

Win Bet

****************************************************
****************************************************


TODAY'S RACING



CATTERICK 12.50

Yorkshire4x4.com Adventure Activities
Juvenile Maiden Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo) 2m

15/8 Mark Twain, 5/2 Call To Arms, 5/1 Lil Ella
7/1 Kingdom Of Munster, 8/1 Anaya, 10/1 Bateau Bleu
20/1 Admission, 100/1 Pont De Nuit, 100/1 Presidium Galaxy
100/1 Young Firth.

This is a 4yo maiden hurdle. There are not that many of
these races at this time of year so only a few similar races to form an opinion by. I think it's interesting that we have 19 of these races in January at every distance and 6 winners were unraced and 13 winners came from Novice Hurdles and none came from Maiden Hurdles. CALL TO ARMS wouldnt interest me as he comes from a Maiden hurdle and both his two runs have resulted in wide distance defeats. He may just find one too good for him. LIL ELLA also comes from her maiden hurdle as well and she isn't for me. Fillies struggled in these 19 races anyway. None managed to win with under two career starts something ANAYA has to overcome. I'd have to go with MARK TWAIN here who jumped well on his debut. Although beaten 23 lengths into 3rd that day it was on softer ground than he likes according to his trainer and crucially it came on a Grade 1 track and in a race with serious stables and decent prospects. Throw in the fact he achieved a very decent level on the flat I'd see him as the safest risk by far and I couldn't find a better option here.

SELECTION - MARK TWAIN

****************************************************
****************************************************

SOUTHWELL 1.00

Bet On Winning Distances At bluesq.com
Apprentice Classified Claiming Stakes
(CLASS 6)(4yo+ 0-70) 5f

7/2 Residency, 4/1 Kylladdie, 4/1 Sharp Shoes
5/1 Prince James, 8/1 Kate Skate, 8/1 Ridley Didley
16/1 First Swallow, 20/1 Ingleby Star, 33/1 Areeg.

The 1.00pm is a 5f Claimer for Apprentice riders. This race
is quite complicated and not helped by the draw which could
now be less straight forward after a horse won from Stall one recently. That said the draw does put me off SHARP SHOES and I would look elsewhere. PRINCE JAMES doesnt have the typical Claiming race profile and looking at all 4 year olds to drop down in trip I couldnt find one as inexperienced and he wouldnt be my choice either. RESIDENCY has won his latest two starts but this is a better class race and lacking backclass I have my doubts that he will be good enough to win this race. I don't like AREEG as a filly with an absence. I would oppose FIRST SWALLOW who didnt do enough last time. I feel just
the same about INGLEBY STAR as well. KATE SKATE is a
filly with few recent runs and not for me. The two runners I felt stood out were KYLLADDIE and RIDLEY DIDLEY. I'd
see KYLLADDIE as a good solid option and I have no fears
at all on the surface. RIDLEY DIDLEY comes out very well
for a horse with an absence and will be a decent price as well and at the prices I think he is worth a small interest bet.

SELECTION - RIDLEY DIDLEY 16/1 +

****************************************************
****************************************************

HEREFORD 1.10

Lindley Catering Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m1f

11/10 Togiak, 11/2 Grey Gold, 11/2 Valley View
9/1 Cruise Control, 12/1 Jacko´s Boy, 14/1 Senses
16/1 Spinning Waters, 25/1 Caddie Master, 25/1 Major Potential 33/1 Bay Central, 33/1 Eddie Boy, 50/1 Shoudhavenownbettr 50/1 Su Bleu, 100/1 Fraamtaaztiic, 100/1 Little Buddy 100/1 Milo Milan.

This is a 2m Novice Hurdle. Not an easy race as there is
an unraced 4 year old TOGIAK who was decent when he
ran on the Flat. Unraced 4 year olds only score well when
favourites and overall I'd have to see him as a positive. I
dont have a strong profile against him. VALLEY VIEW
is respected but hardly has a prolific profile. Neither does CRUISE CONTROL who has a similar profile and is not
easy to fancy. You want to oppose unraced horses aged 8
like JACKO´S BOY. These have a 0-51 record and those
aged 7 or more first time out are just 1-140. I looked at
unraced 8 year olds in every Novice Hurdle in January at
every distance and found a 1-114 record. He will be far
too big to lay. I suppose you could bet GREY GOLD to
beat JACKO´S BOY in the match bet if he isnt a stupid
price or lay JACKO´S BOY place only. Either way the
strongest profile has to be TOGIAK to win on his debut.

SELECTION - TOGIAK

****************************************************
****************************************************

CATTERICK 1.20

Wakefield Beginners´ Chase (CLASS 4) (5yo+) 2m3f

5/2 Lord Villez, 4/1 Glencree, 9/2 Pyracantha
5/1 Front Of House, 8/1 Arctic Wings, 14/1 Humbie
14/1 Stick Together, 16/1 Karingreason, 20/1 Knocklayde Euro 33/1 Carters Rest, 50/1 The Only Way, 66/1 Mansonien L´as.

This is a Beginners Chase over 2m 3f. There are half a dozen that could probably win this race. There is a piece in the paper about FRONT OF HOUSE making a case that he should be one to avoid based on the fact he wants faster ground. Not so sure about that argument but I am opposing him statistically. There are many winners of these races that come from Hurdle races but those that do are invariably seasonal debutants and having Chase debuts. Horses that ran over Hurdles this season scored quite badly. Horses that ran in Novice Hurdles this season hade
a 0-39 record and that puts me off him. There are 580 similar races at this time of year at each and every distance. Horses in these races from Novice Hurdles had a poor 4-195 record and None had 9 or more career starts and none were aged 8 or more (0-63) which again undermines FRONT OF HOUSE and I would take him on. I am also taking on PYRACANTHA another who comes from hurdles this season. He has a better profile but not one good enough to select. I looked at all horses that came via Handicap Hurdles without a recent run and without any Graded form before which is the profile HUMBIE has. I found winners like him but none of these were as lightly raced as he is and it
means no similar winners were like him and as this is a serious drop in distance it may well be best to watch him. GLENCREE has a very complicated profile with a massive absence. I have looked at all horses that were absent 2 seasons or more and if these horses had no Graded Class from these had a poor 1-99 record. The complication is that its a poor record but that one winner was 7 and came from a Novice Hurdle just as he does and also had a similar number of runs so I can hardly claim he is awful statistically or strong either. He is a judgement call so
I have to guess and you could argue his stable won yesterday with another horse with a long absence. For me it is a choice between GLENCREE or LORD VILLEZ who fell just 3 days ago. Statistically horses falling and running within 4 days are 0-15 but thats an unsafe statistic. LORD VILLEZ has had a lot of chances to win over fences before and because of that I will take a guess with GLENCEE and make him the choice.

****************************************************
****************************************************

HEREFORD 1.40

Lindley Catering Handicap Chase
(CLASS 5) (5yo+ 0-95) 3m1f110y

3/1 Hobb´s Dream, 5/1 Shannons Boy, 5/1 Sir Winston
6/1 Cold Harbour, 8/1 Sir Peter, 10/1 Ethiopia, 16/1 Ballymorn 16/1 South Bank, 20/1 Copper Sound , 20/1 Guydus
40/1 Huckleberry.

This is a trappy Handicap Chase over an extended 3m 1f. I
couldnt bet several of these. SOUTH BANK has to go from
a 2m race. COPPER SOUND is weak. GUYDUS didnt run as
well as she needed to last time from a Novice race. I couldn't match BALLYMORN to a winner. HUCKLEBERRY doesnt
appeal as a seasonal debut. COLD HARBOUR comes out too
badly as he steps up from 2m 4f with two runs this year and
no horse doing that had his weight or was his age. ETHIOPIA was hammered over 4 miles last time and similar horses that had his profile scored badly. I think one of the others might win. HOBB´S DREAM is a mare and won last time out. She has to be considered but no mares followed up a win when as old as her and none won without Grade 1 form either which she lacks. SHANNONS BOY has ran once this year and has no Form beyond a Class 4 race before. Horses like that with 9 or more career starts had a 2-79 record. Neither of these winners were aged 9 or more like he is and both winners in that record carried at least 12lbs less weight so he feels just a little unsafe. The arguments against SIR WINSTON and SIR PETER are similar. Both have decent profiles and they come out closely to similar winners with the only proviso that they have a few pounds more weight than the winners did. I would still see these as the best profiles in a race that doesn't offer a strong one. With a recent race I would see SIR WINSTON as marginally safer and well raced this year and consistent and with form on this right handed track I'd see SIR WINSTON as the sensible bet each way here.

SELECTION - SIR WINSTON 4/1 Each Way

****************************************************
****************************************************

CATTERICK 1.50

Catterickbridge.co.uk Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m

9/4 Dunowen Point, 3/1 Danceintothelight, 11/2 Red Jade
8/1 Speed Dating, Tale Of Tanganyika, 12/1 Gentleman Jeff
12/1 River Dragon, 12/1 Shadows Lengthen, 20/1 Dirleton
20/1 Pickworth, 33/1 Daredevil Dan, 40/1 Aldaado
66/1 Napoletano, 66/1 Plutonium, 66/1 Royal Crystal
100/1 Matilda´s Folly.

This is a 2m Novice Hurdle. Another race where you have
to take a guess as RED JADE is unraced and hard to judge
because of that. SHADOWS LENGTHEN is also unraced
and well backed. I will try and narrow this down to see how
many should be considered alongside him. SPEED DATING
was tailed off only 9 days ago and that was too poor a race
too recently for me. DANCEINTOTHELIGHT is a 4 and
comes from a Maiden Hurdle. I looked at all 4 year olds to
do this and found a 0-20 record so I don't see a strong case for him. DUNOWEN POINT comes from a Bumper this
season. I looked at all 5 year olds that did that and found a few winners but the vast majority had won a bumper and those like DUNOWEN POINT that hadnt were 1-126. Its hard to know just how much I can trust that statistic but it suggests DUNOWEN POINT has plenty to prove. I dont feel TALE OF TANGANYIKA is going to be good enough
failing last time behind a 100/1 winner. RIVER DRAGON
is hard to read and I felt his profile was more disssapointing than anything else. GENTLEMAN JEFF is also hard to get right having his first run for a new stable. His absence pulls his numbers down. I dont see a safe profile in this race and that leads me back to the unraced horses. There appears no reason why the gamble on SHADOWS LENGTHEN should not win. RED JADE is also fine. I'd rather not bet unraced horses if I don't have to but he does have the best profile in this race despite being unraced. The record of horses aged 6 first time out can be split two ways. Those starting over 4/1 have weak records. Those starting under 4/1 are 8-17 and although thats a meaningless statistic it shows that any 6yo prominent and fancied in the market has to be respected so in the absence of any other decent profiles I will take the
chance on an unraced winner. SHADOWS LENGTHEN isa saver and RED JADE the main selection.

****************************************************
****************************************************

HEREFORD 2.10

Lindley Catering Maiden Hurdle
(CLASS 5) (5yo+) 2m6f110y

5/2 Minella Stars, 3/1 Railway Dillon, 4/1 Grey Wulff
4/1 Nemo Spirit, 10/1 Junior Jack, 12/1 Gallant Oscar
16/1 Rathconrath, 25/1 Bennys Mist, 33/1 Tim The Chair
50/1 The Chisholm, 66/1 Mister Concussion
100/1 Dapple Prince, 100/1 Inca Cave.

This is a Maiden Hurdle over an extended 2m 6f. There
are only 44 of these races at this time of year. I think
there are 6 possible winners. GALLANT OSCAR comes
out badly from a Bumper this season. JUNIOR JACK is
unsafe from a Bumper with an absence and one run and
the only winner with that profile was a 7 year old who
won that bumper. NEMO SPIRIT Doesnt interest me.
I looked at 6 year olds like him from Maiden Hurdles
and found a weak 1-37 record with that winner having
4 starts compared to his one run. RAILWAY DILLON
is 6 and comes from a Maiden hurdle. The only winner
to do that had more career runs and at least 3 that year
and he only has two. He is nearly there but not quite. I
dont like GREY WULFF's profile much and what few
similar types won all ran much better than he did last
time and had a more recent race. That leaves favourite
MINELLA STARS an unraced 6 year old. Statistically
thats not a problem. I looked at Paul Nicholls runners
in these races when unraced 6 year olds and from his 5
runners he returned a W W W 2 F record. Without a
better option I'd see MINELLA STARS as strong and
probably the most likely winner. I suppose solely on
statistics MINELLA STARS is the most likely winner.
I'd respect RAILWAY DILLON a lot especially with
a recent race and he may be the better bet each way
if you don't mind dipping under 7/2 for that bet. It's
a personal choice really. I feel one of those two will
win but I will leave the race selection free as the two
options will suit different people and I've no control
of the market or how they will bet later on.

****************************************************
****************************************************

CATTERICK 2.20

Watt Fences North Yorkshire Grand National
Handicap Chase (for the Denys Smith Challenge Trophy)
(CLASS 3) (5yo+ 0-130) 3m6f

5/1 Star Beat, 7/1 According To Pete, 7/1 Bay Cherry
7/1 Newman Des Plages, 7/1 Rambling Minster, 10/1 Overquest
12/1 Cast Iron Casey, 12/1 Zitenka, 14/1 Heez A Steel
14/1 Palace Merano, 14/1 Ya I Know, 20/1 General Hardi
20/1 On Gossamer Wings, 20/1 Quinder Spring.

This is a Long distance 3m 6f Handicap Chase. There are 39
similar races in January. These Marathon races are rarely won by unfit horses or horses with absences. As an example 36 of the 39 winners won with their last race within the past month and 38 of the 39 winners ran within 10 weeks. Horses with just one run this season struggle as well. RAMBLING MINSTER is very hard to fancy as a 13 year old with 1 run this year when you also throw in a huge weight and a nasty absence as well. I would oppose HEEZ A STEEL with 1 run this season as well as a massive absence and a high weight and he has to come via a Novice Handicap Chase as well. PALACE MERANO looks wrong with one run this year and a break and high weight too. BAY CHERRY has a lot to prove with one run this year and an absence and high weight as well. NEWMAN DES PLAGES has only had about one and a half races this year. I would not want him especially as an exposed horse and with a big weight.
You can also argue that he may not get home considering he
is a French Bred. There are many lighter weighted horses here that ahve had several runs this year to be betting the ones that had fewer runs that year and higher weights. YA I KNOW has to be eliminated with a long absence. ON GOSSAMER WINGS will probably lack the class from out of the handicap. Only 1 winner came from a Novice Handicap Chase and he had a very recent run and was older than QUINDER SPRING and I thought this 7 year old came out badly. ACCORDING TO PETE did not run well enough last time considering that was only 12 days ago and over hurdles and with a high weight. CAST IRON CASEY is not out of this but I decided not to shortlist him. I couldnt find a similar horse that raced at 3m or shorter last time. He was also
hurt by his absence and I don't like the fact he has never won a race beyond 2m 4f yet and there is a big stamina doubt there.


SHORTLIST

STAR BEAT is shortlistable not least as he has proven winning from at the track. Statistically he is an exposed 8 year old with no backclass in Graded races. I have found 1 similar winner so I don't see profile as too bad. I think there is a slight stamina issue. I think he would not want to see any rain and he has to now win from a 12lbs higher mark so he has a bit to prove. OVERQUEST
has to be considered. Just the slight worry about his inexperience and his absence won't help either. I looked at all the lightly raced horses like him coming from 3m and shorter and the only winners were younger. He may well have won bar a fall last time but this is a better class race and he does have a bit to prove. I can't rule
out GENERAL HARDI much as he is not well handicapped and I
would be a bit worried about his absence. ZITENKA has the best profile for me and although risky and capable of dissapointing I couldn't find a better option based on the following profile.

* Exposed horses with 21 or more career starts
* Male horses aged 9
* Between 1-2-3-4 runs this season
* Form in Listed Grade or lower
* Not winning last time but completing the course
* There were 6 horses with that profile
* They finished W W 6 W 6 W
* Horses in this race with that profile were 1-1
* Harlov won this race in 2004 with that profile
* ZITENKA comes from the best trial race
* The 1993-2006-2007 winners of this came from the same race
* He has won from a higher rating as well

SELECTION - ZITENKA 11/1 +

****************************************************
****************************************************

HEREFORD 2.40

Lindley Catering Group Handicap Hurdle
(CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-115) 2m6f110y

11/4 Silver Footnote, 4/1 Najca De Thaix, 5/1 Be Ashored
5/1 Simply Wings, 15/2 The Gripper, 16/1 Doctor Disny
16/1 Flintoff, 16/1 Mauricetheathlete, 20/1 Pearl
25/1 Krackatara.

This is a Handicap Hurdle over an extened 2m 6f and there
are 193 similar races at this time of year. Not convinced I
have anything strong here. I want to avoid the favourite as
SILVER FOOTNOTE won a Novice Hurdle last time out. I
found 5 winners doing that but these had at least 4 races in that season. Those that had 1-2-3 runs were 0-16 and with just 1 run SILVER FOOTNOTE may be short of runs with
an absence as well. NAJCA DE THAIX is exposed and won
a Handicap Hurdle last time over 2m 4f. The only winners
doing that were aged 6 or younger so as a 10 year old that
looks a bit too risky. I felt THE GRIPPER failed to run as
well as He needed to last time coming from a Novice race.
The argument against BE ASHORED is no similar type in
193 races won with his absence. FLINTOFF hasnt shown
enough for me at the moment. DOCTOR DISNY comes
out badly and I dont see a strong case for any of the big
priced outsiders. SIMPLY WINGS looks the best option
each way. He is down in Class and consistent and may be
able to get off the mark now he takes on inferior types.

SELECTION - SIMPLY WINGS Each Way 4/1 +

****************************************************
****************************************************

CATTERICK 3.20

W. L. And Hector Christie Memorial Trophy
(Novices´ Handicap Chase) (CLASS 4)
(5yo+ 0-115) 2m

3/1 Heavenly Chorus, 4/1 Blackpool Billy, 5/1 Waterloo Road
11/2 Monsieur Jourdain, 7/1 Peachey Moment, 8/1 Grand Award, 10/1 Overbranch, 20/1 Little Wizard, 25/1 Earl Grez
33/1 Petrosian, 50/1 Lindseyfield Lodge.

This is a 2m Novice Handicap Chase. January have had 75
similar races at this time of year. I think we can ignore rags PETROSIAN -EARL GREZ - LINDSEYFIELD LODGE in
this race. I'd also oppose OVERBRANCH as a mare with a
long absence. I think HEAVENLY CHORUS is probably a
horse to oppose as she is an exposed mare. Only 4 of the
75 winners were exposed and thats from any sex. None of
them were aged 9 or more like her anyway. I think you are
better of with a Male horse and an unexposed horse and as
I can't match her to any of the 75 winners I am going to
oppose her. WATERLOO ROAD's trying to win first time
out. Interesting that 4 winners did that but they all came
from Hurdle races. Those like him who are coming from
a Chase first time out were 0-17 so I see better options to
him. LITTLE WIZARD didnt run well enough for me on
his last start 11 days ago. MONSIEUR JOURDAIN doesnt
appeal to me as a Flat Bred horse with two average chase
runs so far. PEACHEY MOMENT is an option but he is
not for me. His trainer states he might want a Flat track
which he doesn't get here and given he has not completed
yet in his two chase starts I can pass him by as well. I like BLACKPOOL BILLY. He ran well on his Seasonal debut
in a Novice Chase after being absent through injury. Well
regarded and clearly well handicapped over fences on an
8lbs lower mark than his hurdle rating I could envisage him
outclassing these but the issue for me is one run this year
and having topweight and conceding weight to All horses
in this race with more runs. Thats why I would look for a
better option and thats GRAND AWARD.


SELECTION - GRAND AWARD 6/1 Win Bet

****************************************************
****************************************************