Daily Recommendation

No Bet Today

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YESTERDAY'S REVIEW

More than happy with yesterdays message. Several decent
winners in the message at excellent prices and overall some
high class work done in places. You could even argue that it deserved better. The main bet OFFICIER DE RESERVE did
enough to make a small profit collecting each way. He came
3rd and ran very well overall. He battled on gamely and never gave up and in the end he finished best of all behind the easy winner and given the price he was worth a bet. It would have been criminal to have lost yesterday with those results and it deserved more than a small profit. Good start to the new year.

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS


Not a prolific message today. Short and Reduced as I ran into some time problems yesterday. I just havent had the time for a strong message today. There is no option today but to have a summarised message lacking in detail and limited analaysis.

Had I had more time it may not have mattered much with the
Southwell card looking weak. It's a poor card there and I didn't see anything that stood out so just some vague ideas there. It starts with a Brief run through at SOUTHWELL. After that a few words about each National Hunt Card. There is only 1 race I like at AYR on a nasty card. Then it's FOLKESTONE and a few races followed bt PLUMPTON but its a message affected by timing and not one going for a message of the season award.

The Tail has been wagging the Dog today so its a low key day and just a few Interest bets for me with my portfolio below.


Folkestone 12.45 - WASN'T ME 4/1

Small interest bet and no more. I shouldnt be betting here in a ridiculous race but I have to oppose all 3 of his rivals and a 4/1 chance in a 4 runner race isnt too bad an option.


Ayr 12.50 - RUPERT LAMB 6/4

Probably should be an each way double race but I have him
well ahead statistically taking on horses with unimpressive
profiles and I think he should be able to win this race.


Folkestone 3.25 - CANNINGTON BROOK 9/4

Fascinating to see if a downgrade from two hot Cheltenham
Novice Chases to a low grade track will enable him to beat a horse that has never jumped a chase in public before. I think he will be a serious test for the odds on favourite and priced around 5/2 and 11/4 on Betfair is worth an interest bet.

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TODAY'S RACING



S O U T H W E L L


The 12.30pm is an Amateur Riders 2m Handicap. These can
be complicated races and messy with horses switching between National Hunt and Flat races. Most of the outsiders look unfit to me. I see CALATAGAN in that position as well and not for me. Lots of older horses with absences. It isn't a big problem in this race. Many recent winners have taken this having faced a break of several weeks so an absence shouldnt be seen as a big
issue. YEOMANRY doesn't appeal from a Maiden. I can give
NIGHT ORBIT a chance if handling the surface but his sire is 1-63 here and thats a worry. Some of these I can't get a real grip on but I liked ZED CANDY's chance. It would not amaze me should ELITE LAND win but he's horrible to read. Maybe the best bet is SIR BOSS. I dont have a problem with his break of 46 days. Although unproven here and over the distance I'd be prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt. His sire stats are good and if it does suit he could easily outclass these as he does look a grade or two better than some of these at his best.
Topweights do well in this race and I like SIR BOSS best.


I don't like much else on the card. DUBAI HILLS looks a hard horse to oppose in the 1.00pm race and should win. I could not oppose BILKO PAK in the Claimer at 1.30pm as the weights favour him so strongly. The profiles in the maiden at 2.05pm are complicated with National Hunt form and foreign form as well and My angles won't be safe here. Purely on raw ability it will take a good performance to beat PALAWI who looks best.


The 2.35pm is a mess not least with 7 runners and a runner in Aviso trained by Barney Curley. I would have to oppose the 2 rags and HARD ROCK CITY as a 11 year old coming up from 6f to 8f but as to what wins this I can only guess LAKEMAN.


The 3.05pm is an average 6f sprint handicap. I could not rule out too many. ERRIGAL LAD looks unsafe up in trip and his absence wont help. CAPE OF STORMS is not my choice and
won't find that an easy draw to overcome. I was expecting to find a much better profile with PRINCE JAMES winning last time and unexposed but he only had an acceptable profile and without being proven here I feel I should avoid him. Marginal preference for DESERT STRIKE in a wide open race.


The 3.40pm is a low grade 7f handicap. I don't like the record of horses from 3yo Handicaps so GOLD STORY is opposed. I don't like CAPTAIN BLUEBIRD's absence. I could not match KIELTY´S FOLLY to a winner. There race is complicated as Mark Brisbourne runs two horses. DOWNHILL SKIER would be my preference each way in this race hoping he has the class.


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N A T I O N A L H U N T



A Y R


I thought RUPERT LAMB with a decent profile should
win the Maiden Hurdle at 2.40pm. His rivals have holes
in them. LADY BLUESKY comes out poorly as a mare
with 1 run this year. FORTUNI is a debutant and because
of that at a disadvantage. KAOLAK didn't achieve much
last time and may lack the stamina. CHECKLOW doesnt
come out well and is probably the stables second string so
I would feel this ought to be won by RUPERT LAMB.

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F O L K E S T O N E


I thought the 4 runner race at 12.45pm was horrendous. It
is a 2m 5f Handicap Chase. I failed to find a similar winner in any race. JACK´S LAD leaves me cold as a 12 year old coming up in distance from a Novice Handicap and his best hope must be because his rivals are equally useless. Failing to impress for a similar reason is RUSSELLSTOWN BOY another older horse coming up in trip from a Novice race. I felt CURRAGH DANCER was best avoided with his lack
of Chasing experience. Bottom line is any selection must
be the "least worth" Option so WASNTME is my choice.


I don't like the Mares Novice Handicap at 1.15pm. This
is the only race of its kind and 10 renewals show little in
the way of angles. Only 1 horse aged 4 has won and I am
going to oppose DOYENNED DREAM at that age with
an absence. GALANT STAR was nearly right but just not
there. BARI BAY and SHE´S HUMBLE have considerably
more runs than any past winners and look over exposed.
The Racing Post have guessed TIME TO THINK and it's
as good a guess as any and I would give her a fair chance.


The 1.50pm is a Maiden Chase. Pointless getting heavily
involved as you can't answer the basic question of how a
couple of these will jump. There are 3 potential winners.
I wasnt prepared to overlook FOUR STRONG WINDS's
jumping which so far has not impressed. A Safer choice
may be FIFTYONEFIFTYONE but I like Hurdlers going
into Maiden Chases best of all rather than failed chasers
and thats why I would prefer to risk BALLYBACK.


The 2.20pm is a Novice Hurdle over an extended 2m 6f.
I couldnt match RED MILE from a Maiden Hurdle with
1 run this year. YABORA failed in a Grade 2 Hurdle last
time. There are some winners that managed that but all
were far lighter raced than he is and because of that he's
not like any similar winner of a similar race. There are
only average profiles with both DEFINITE DAWN and
CARPINCHO and I did not view NO SECRETS as safe.
The best profile is GLOBAL POWER as a 5yo winning
a Maiden Hurdle. Those like him winning last time and
not facing a step up in trip had a W W record from two
runners. I would have to go with GLOBAL POWER.


The 3.25pm is a Beginners Chase over 3m 1f and it is
probably a match. PEVERIL is probably the most likely
winner. Better over Hurdles albeit only just. Personally
I wasn't that convinced about his profile. I am going to
oppose him with CANNINGTON BROOK. Normally I'd have prefered the hurdler PEVERIL over any horse like CANNINGTON BROOK well beaten in a Chase on his last start but the difference here is that those defeats came at Cheltenham and there is no disgrace at all that he didnt cope with hot Novice Chases there. Dropping down to one of the smaller tracks looks the right move and there was plenty of market support for him to win both his Cheltenham races. CANNINGTON BROOK is easy to underestimate here. Last Spring he was racing in a Grade 1 hurdle when PEVERIL was in handicaps and I think there is a good chance CANNINGTON BROOK can deal with him and he looks value to me at 9/4.




P L U M P T O N


I think GIBB RIVER will probably win the 12.35. I felt
the 3 market leaders came out best. MR MUDDLE has
a reasonable profile but what puts me off him is that he
only started 66/1 for a Juvenile race last time. With the
unbeaten EXTREMELY SO a Mare and because of that
not brilliant statistically I do not feel I can oppose 5yo
GIBB RIVER unbeaten in his only start from a top yard.


The 1.40pm is a Novice Hurdle. This is quite interesting
with 108 similar races. WATER GARDEN doesnt impress
me coming from a Bumper. INVICTUS wont be my choice
either. Although unraced 5 year olds like him do win these
races a 2-30 record is not prolific there are better profiles around and with many last time out winners its asking lots for a debutant to win. MISTER HYDE brings a decent level of handicap form into the race and I respect him without being able to show similar horses score very well. The best profile is TIME FOR SPRING as a 7 year old winning last time in a Novice Hurdle. There were 4 similar horses to him in the 108 similar races and they came W W 4 W so because of that my choice would be TIME FOR SPRING.


The 2.10 is the Sussex National 3m 5f Handicap Chase.
Given the choice I was not prepared to give the benefit
of the doubt to seasonal debutant MASTER OVERSEER
who won this last year. Very few debutants win January
staying chases and I'd not want the shortest price horse
with the longest absence. Horses with 1 run this season
don't score well and HUNTERS PLOY and KAWINGO
are opposed with 1 run and high weights. NOBLE BILY
is also rejected with 1 run this season coming up in trip.
You want to avoid horses from 2m 6f or shorter as no
winners came that way so CULLAHILL is out. I could
not bet THE FERBANE MAN from a Novice Chase. I
see weakness in PEUT ETRE SIVOLA as an exposed
type well beaten last time. PASS ME BY may not have
the right level of fitness yet. MARTYS MISSION does
not appeal much and neither does MINELLA BOYS. I
respect WHATABOUTYA and would shortlist him as
a potential winner. There were 2 better profiles though.
I like REBEL MELODY and DEEP POCKETS best of
all. DEEP POCKETS looks a reasonable saver with a
slightly safer REBEL MELODY the selection.

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