No Strong Bet


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2 Advised Bets Today


Southwell 2.45

MECCA'S TEAM 6/1

Win Bet



Cheltenham 5.00

WHAT OF IT 6/1 Win Bet

CAULKIN 9/2 Saver Bet


It is a day of many interesting dilemmas. I have been
steered into many different areas and its a real generic
message that has something everywhere. I am out of
my comfort zone in a lot of the places with the best
angles so it will be very illuminating to see the results.


Kelso

I had a good negative now a non runner (3.45) so I'm
left with just one preview (2.00pm) but not a race to
interest me too much so not a serious card for us.

Punchestown

Only interest for me is opposing Kauto Star and with
no real conviction I have gone with Kempes here.

Southwell

More interesting here. There is a 5f maiden at 2.45pm
and I have a filly in MECCA'S TEAM with a W W W
profile and she is 6/1 and more to back. Its an Unsafe
set of trends as they include Turf races but It interests
me to see if MECCA'S TERM can improve that record.

Chester

My main previews at Chester are the Chester Cup and
the 5f Sprint Handicap at 3.30. Both hard races and a
lot of luck is required. In the 3.30pm Handicap I have
come down on the side or MOORHOUSE LAD. What
is annoying is last night he was backed from 16's to 8s.
When I first started the race I did not expect to fancy
him at all. Once I had done the race he began to stand
out and came out best of all and the work I have done
and the market move for him make him interesting. I
feel no inclination to bet him at half the price he was
so decided not to stake him as a bet. The other horse
I liked was MIDNIGHT CALLER in the 2.20pm. Not
easy to read fillies Classic trials but I like her profile
and her prep race and she looked the best option and
I'd put her with COLOMBIAN 4.05 in an e/w double.

Cheltenham

All Hunter Chases and normally I'd avoid these races
not in my comfort zone but 2 profiles stood in a 2m
Hunter Chase at 5pm. I respect Caulkin but dont see
enough evidence he would appreciate Cheltenham so
I feel WHAT OF IT 6/1 has an outstanding chance
and with Caulkin the saver I feel we are covered.


Sedgefield

A Little uninspiring but I felt the favourite would win
the first two races on the card albeit at short prices.


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Message Thoughts


It is a bit dissapointing there is only one Flat card on
Turf today at Chester when we have 4 National Hunt
cards. Bizzare planning. I've done Chester as normal.

I really am out of my comfort zone with Hunters so
the Cheltenham Hunter Chase card is ignored all bar
a very interesting profile in the first race. Sedgefield
and Kelso leave me simply cold and are unneccesary
National Hunt Cards and we cold have done with the
extra Flat card that wasn't on sand and Southwell on
the sand is a long way from being an ideal alternative.



Tuesday's Summary

I ended up bet free yesterday with just two races that
got mentioned. One of these won at a big price which
was pleasing and the other bet lost. Had I gone with a
bet it was more likely to have been the wrong one of
the pair. The result of that race shows that whilst you
can have your wits about you there are times when it
doesn't matter. The first 4 home were miles clear on
the far side which wasnt consistent with any races at
Newcastle and I didn't expect the draw bias to change
as much as that. Overall happy enough. Missed a big
banana skin and highlighted a decent winner so

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



Chester 1.45

7/4 Lily´s Angel, 4/1 He´s So Cool, 4/1 Redair
10/1 Choice Of Remark, 12/1 Van Go Go, 14/1 Beau Mistral
14/1 Jawking, 16/1 Mousie, 20/1 Marford Missile.

The Lily Agnes is a 5f Conditions race. As ever we have
the usual set of statistics that are less important than the luck in running needed. You can look at fillies or colts in the race and what preparation they have but factors like luck in running and how they start matter more. I looked at all these. The market seems quite accurate. I wasnt too keen on Choice Of Remark as although he could blast out from Stall 1 and lead he has gone 3 runs without winning a race yet something no winners have. REDAIR came out best of all with LILY'S ANGEL next. REDAIR each way is an option but I dont feel I have broken through here.



Kelso 2.00

This is a Selling Handicap Chase. Poor fare and probably
shouldnt be including the race. The stats in this race show
you want to be with horses that fit the following criteria.

* You want an exposed horse
* You want a horse running within 2 weeks
* Avoid horses beaten more than 30 lengths last time
* At least 6 runs since January 1st 2010
* All past winners of this race had that profile
* The following 2 horss have this profile today
* LINDSEYFIELD LODGE - GUNS AND BUTTER
* My choice is LINDSEYFIELD LODGE


Southwell 2.10

Messy and scrappy 7f maiden for 3 year olds. Looking
at all similar races horses from 5f races have a miserable
0-69 record which undermines DR RED EYE. Its a close
call between YORK GLORY and CALAF but the drop in
trip and recent run swings thing in favour of CALAF.



Chester 2.20

5/2 Wonder Of Wonders, 7/2 Midnight Caller
7/1 Fork Handles, 7/1 Jaaryah, 8/1 Musharakaat
9/1 Encore Une Annee, 10/1 Blaise Chorus
16/1 Sunday Bess, 33/1 Bilidn.

The Cheshire Oaks for fillies never really throws up clear
cut choices. I have JAARYAH as a negative. I would have
to question favourite WONDER OF WONDERS too. The
draw in stall 8 is not a good one even at this distance and
no winners have won from that stall in this race. What is
also a concern is she comes from a 12f race. No previous
winners of this prepped at 12f and came down in distance
and it makes me wonder if that hurts her at all. Horses to
win from 2yo maidens are significantly better with just 1
career start and ENCORE UNE ANNEE looks wrong. It's
easy to respect FORK HANDLES but She is exposed as a
juvenile and I like horses from the May Hill Stakes in the
race so overall I prefered MIDNIGHT CALLER



Southwell 2.45

3/1 Bertiewhittle, 9/2 Mecca´s Team, 5/1 Arrivaderci
11/2 Moorhouse Girl, 13/2 Beautiful Day, 10/1 Ginzan
12/1 Triviality, 16/1 Ever Roses, 20/1 Callum´s Rainbowe
20/1 Durgan, 50/1 Bird Dog, 50/1 Chipofftheoldblock
100/1 Chardonnay Star.

This is a 5f all aged maiden. There are only a few of these
maiden races at this time of year. Horses that raced with
under 2 previous career starts were 0-42 so I'd be keen to
avoid ARRIVADERCI. I feel MOORHOUSE GIRL is weak
as a 4yo filly. No 3yo filly like GINZAN or EVER ROSES
came from maidens over 5f. CALLUM´S RAINBOWE is
unraced and all 17 doing that lost. BERTIEWHITTLE is
clearly a fancied and interesting runner. Work to do from
a statistical point of view. My angles are Not safe here as
there are not enough of these races to take a strong view.

* BERTIEWHITTLE comes from a 6f 3yo maiden
* Males doing that were 1-13
* That winner had 3 runs that year and he has just 1
* BERTIEWHITTLE isnt matchable to a winner
* BEAUTIFUL DAY - Overall a Positive
* MECCA´S TEAM has a good profile
* 3yo Filly from a 6f Maiden
* 2 Career starts both this season
* Beaten under 10 lengths last time
* Similar horses had a W W W record
* I have found high drawn winners recently

Selection - MECCA'S TEAM 6/1





Chester 2.55

Totesport.com Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap)
(CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m2f147y

11/2 Overturn, 6/1 Red Cadeaux, 7/1 Tastahil
8/1 Dirar, 9/1 Mount Athos, 10/1 Admiral Barry
10/1 Mamlook, 16/1 Darley Sun, 16/1 Halla San
16/1 La Vecchia Scuola, 20/1 Montaff, Plymouth Rock
20/1 Sentry Duty, 25/1 Blue Bajan, 25/1 Swingkeel
33/1 Icon Dream, 33/1 Mystery Star.

* The Chester Cup is an extended 18f handicap
* There has been 21 renewals since 1990
* It is the only similar race at this time of year
* Horses aged 8 or more are 0-45 since 1990
* HALLA SAN is now 9 and could be too old
* He has 3 times failed to win this race now
* All 3 times he was better drawn than today
* BLUE BAJAN is surely too old aged 9 with his absence
* SENTRY DUTY is older than the last 36 winners
* He is hardly well handicapped these days
* Horses from 12f or shorter have poor records
* Only 1 past winner came from a 12f race
* That horse came from a Group race and had Group 1 form
* No horse from 12f or shorter can match that today
* MOUNT ATHOS comes from 12f a worry for a 4yo
* ICON DREAM is another 4yo from a 12f race
* PLYMOUTH ROCK doesnt appeal from 11f
* MYSTERY STAR comes from a 12f race
* RED CADEAUX comes from a 12f race
* RED CADEAUX was unlucky in last years race
* He didnt prove he stays this far though
* His sire has had a few winners at 14f and more
* These were all in Class 6 and 7 races though
* Very high weights have struggled
* Horses with 9st 7lbs or more were 1-38 since 1988
* TASTAHIL nearly did that last year beaten in a photo
* This year he has 1lbs more weight than last year
* Whilst he has a better draw this year he is older
* He is also a sesonal debutant and he had a run last year
* Horses with 1 run this season won 9 races
* Those however coming from 14f or shorter were 1-66
* MOUNT ATHOS fails that and has an awful draw
* No horse has ever won at Chester from Stall 17 or more
* MOUNT ATHOS will find this very hard from Stall 19
* PLYMOUTH ROCK - ICON DREAM also fail that
* SWINGKEEL doesnt look well handicapped
* Its hard to fancy him from stall 17
* No horse has ever won at Chester from Stall 17
* LA VECCHIA SCUOLA is the only mare
* Mares have a weak 1-30 record in recent years
* She is on a Career High mark as well
* MONTAFF has a chance but isnt for me
* Last time winners this year have won the race
* None had 13 or more previous runs though like him
* He has to show he handles the track and stays this far
* He also has a bad record in big field races like this
* DARLEY SUN is a 5yo debutant
* There have been winners like him
* Not keen on his draw much and the track bothers me
* He has no form that suggests he will appreciate it here
* DIRAR has to prove he can stay this far
* His Sire hasnt had a winner beyond 2m yet
* The only 2m winners he had were in Class 6 races
* He also has a tough weight with 9st 7lbs
* Only 1 winner carried that weight since 1988

SHORTLIST

* ADMIRAL BARRY comes out well
* The doubt about him is whether he has the class
* MAMLOOK won this last year
* His record in Class staying handicaps is outstanding
* His doubt is whether he can defy a 4lbs higher mark
* OVERTURN is a high class Hurdler
* He doesnt look badly handicapped either
* Obvious appeal drawn 1 as a front runner

SELECTION - ADMIRAL BARRY Win
with a saver on OVERTURN.



Southwell 3.20

5/1 All Right Now, 6/1 Buzz Bird, 6/1 Koo And The Gang
8/1 Bold Diva, 8/1 Nevada Desert, 8/1 Positivity
10/1 Eastern Hills, 12/1 Betteras Bertie, 12/1 Kipchak
14/1 Hit The Switch, General Tufto, 16/1 Play The Blues
20/1 Rub Of The Relic, 33/1 Final Tune.

This is a Nasty low grade Mile Handicap in Class 6 and
I have found 55 similar races. Only a few were run on
the sand so there are some doubts about angles working.

* I'd avoid the following horses with poor profiles
* PLAY THE BLUES is too inexperienced
* KIPCHAK is wrong down from 12d
* Seasonal debutants have appaling records
* HIT THE SWITCH - BETTERAS BERTIE fail that
* NEVADA DESERT - Too old without recent run
* Horses from Maidens were 1-37 and Males 0-27 in that
* ALL RIGHT NOW didnt appeal to me from a maiden
* RUB OF THE RELIC - Weak profile and Bad Draw
* EASTERN HILLS - Not for me from 6f
* BOLD DIVA - Weak as exposed mare up in trip
* POSITIVITY - Unsafe as mare with absence
* GENERAL TUFTO - Unimpressive profile

* SHORTLIST

* FINAL TUNE - Unsafe
* KOO AND THE GANG - Neutral profile
* BUZZ BIRD is fine and comes out best




Chester 3.30

9/2 Falasteen, 11/2 Blue Jack, 11/2 Breathless Kiss
10/1 Beat The Bell, 10/1 Captain Dunne, 10/1 Doctor Parkes
12/1 Archers Road, 12/1 Fathom Five, 12/1 Masamah
14/1 Confessional, 16/1 Moorhouse Lad, 16/1 Noverre To Go
20/1 Green Park.


* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-105 rated horses
* This 5f Handicap has a long history
* Since 1993 there are 63 similar races in May

Clearly the draw is significant. My cut off point would be in
Stall 12 as I find it hard to bet anything drawn that badly and it would take an exceptional profile for a horse drawn 11 or more to interest me. Since 2000 no horse placed in this race drawn 10 or more and you do really want a horse drawn low.

* MASAMAH doesnt offer me enough from a bad draw
* No 5yo debutants won in any of the 63 races
* CONFESSIONAL has a bad draw in stall 12
* I didnt like his profile a 4yo with 1 run this season
* Horses aged 4 doing that coming from 5f were 1-41
* Those that had 7 or more runs like him were 0-35
* CONFESSIONAL comes out badly for me
* BEAT THE BELL has a poor draw in stall 11
* Statistically I felt he came out quite well
* The Draw overrules his profile in this case
* Mainly because he has a career high marj
* ARCHERS ROAD is not well drawn in stall 10
* I found 3 winners like him exposed 4 year olds
* None won with 1-2 runs that season like him
* None were beaten as far as he was last time either
* FATHOM FIVE is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* There was 1 winner like him in 63 races
* That was the 2003 winner of this race
* That winner was a Mare and he is not
* That winner had more backclass as well
* That winner also came from 6f and not 5f
* He has won first time out for the last 2 years
* Statistically though he is unsafe
* DOCTOR PARKES has 1 run this year over 6f
* I found all winners doing that had more backclass
* They all had Group Class form and he doesnt
* It would bother me he won that 6f race as well
* CAPTAIN DUNNE has a shaky profile
* Coming with Conditions race form isnt ideal
* I would worry about him on the ground
* I think he needs a lifetime best of a mark of 104
* His best win came off 100 last June
* That was a weaker race than this and he was fitter
* GREEN PARK is 8 and drops in distance
* There was a winner his age doing that and winning
* That horse had more runs this season
* He likes a smaller field and may find this too tough
* He has never win from this high a rating before;
* FALASTEEN is 4 and won a 5f Handicap last time
* I have found last time out 4 year old winners
* None were as exposed as him which is a slight worry
* He showed tremendous pace last time at Epsom
* Today he faces a Career high mark up by 7lbs
* That wont be helpful and there are other niggles
* He has 5 runs this Callender year
* All past winners of this race were lightly raced that year
* Another problem is the fact he comes from Epsom
* So far 18 horses ran in this race coming from that race
* All 18 lost and only 1 horse even managed to place
* Several started short prices and overal they dissapointed
* NOVERRE TO GO has 1 run this year
* He was beaten 20 lengths in that race
* I found 4 winners with this profile in 63 races
* None of them were 5 year olds like him
* They all had Group Class form and he doesnt
* NOVERRE TO GO therefore looks unsafe
* He has raced just twice at 5f before
* Both times slowly away and unplaced
* NOVERRE TO GO doesnt offer me enough

SHORTLIST


* BREATHLESS KISS is a 4yo filly and exposed
* I found 1 winner like her in 63 races
* Fillies score well in this race but not 4yo fillies
* You have to give her plenty of credit
* There are also plenty of problems
* Statistically coming from a Group 3 is not a great sign
* She is also on a career high mark
* She hasnt won in the class either
* We know well raced horses this year struggle here
* On her side is a recent race which will help
* She is unsafe but still a shortlisted horse
* What worries me is her form at 5f
* Almost every race she is slowly away or behind
* She could lose the draw advantage if doing that
* Then you'd be on a filly having to fight from behind
* Fallon is aware of this saying as much yesterday
* If she breaks well she can win

* BLUE JACK is an exposed seasonal debutant
* I found 3 similar winners aged 6 in 63 races
* All 3 had Group form as he does
* None of these came from 5f races like him
* Ignore that as he comes from the Prix De L'abbaye
* Thats a Group 1 race much as he was well beaten there
* The 3 seasonal debutants like him had less weight
* His problem will be defying that weight first time out
* Only 2 winners have won this race with 9st 5lbs or more
* Neither were seasonal debutants
* No seasonal debutant has won this with more than 9st

* MOORHOUSE LAD leaves me with a dilemma
* First impressions were poor looking at his profile
* Age 8 with 1 run this year and 17 length defeat
* Remarkably I found 2 winners like that in 63 races
* The 1995 winner was 10 and had 1 run that season
* He also lost by 10 + lengths in the same Newbury race
* That Newbury handicap is a very good trial race
* That race provided the 1994 1995 1996 2002 2009 winners
* MOORHOUSE LAD is statistically fine and Drawn 1
* He is not badly handicapped either
* Against him is 17 lengths is a long way last time
* He has never won round a left handed bend before
* I still have reservations about him myself
* Statistically there is enough to shortlist him

SELECTION

MOORHOUSE LAD
BREATHLESS KISS (Saver)



Kelso 3.45

Cut down the preview as my best negative is now a
Non runner. I know all past winners of this had less
than 13 National hunt runs and carried no more than
11st 3lbs. BOW SCHOOL fails both those factors so
he may also be worth opposing a




Southwell 3.55

7/4 Boy The Bell, 7/2 Tamino, 6/1 Charles Parnell
6/1 Exceedingly Good, 10/1 Kalahari Desert
10/1 Vertumnus, 14/1 Eeny Mac, 20/1 Hope She Does
25/1 Mission Impossible, 66/1 Cinderella, Flow Chart.

I could take these one by one and cut through them
statistically making all negatives but of course one
of them has to win. I didnt want BOY THE BELL
as a 4yo coming from a 5f race. The safest bet has
to be EXCEEDINGLY GOOD each way. The race
leaves me cold though and not one to stake hard in.



Chester 4.05

6/4 Colombian, 2/1 Tanfeeth, 7/1 El Wasmi
10/1 Change The Subject, 14/1 Planetoid, 16/1 Layla´s King
20/1 Ash Cloud, 33/1 Ari Gold, 50/1 Leah´s Angel.

This is a 3yo maiden over 10f. Not much at all I can
say. I thought CHANGE THE SUBJECT was behind
the shorter priced horses in profile and would be much
better with more experience and I didnt see a case for
him. For the same reasons EL WASMI wouldnt appeal
either. PLANETOID and ASH CLOUD have similar
problems. I couldnt see past the market leaders myself
and Given the choice I like COLOMBIAN.


Southwell 4.30

5/2 Carrie´s Magic, 3/1 Fair Passion, 7/2 Matterofact
5/1 Caramelita, 8/1 Tillys Tale, 14/1 Cloth Ears.

Fillies Handicap over 5f. The absences of more than
a Month rule out CLOTH EARS and CARAMELITA.
I didnt like TILLYS TALE who may need more runs.
MATTEROFACT is unsafe without a run here before
and as an 8yo with 1 run since last September. Best
profile is FAIR PASSION ahead of Carries Magic.




Chester 4.40

5/2 Fadhaa, 9/2 Gottany O´s, 6/1 Gawaarib
6/1 Time To Work, 7/1 Brown Panther, 8/1 Colour Vision
10/1 Argocat, 16/1 Planet Waves.

* This is a 12f handicap for 3 year olds rated 0-85
* There is a long history in this race
* We have 83 similar handicaps elsewhere
* It's usually won by Lightly raced improvers
* ARGOCAT comes from a Conditions race
* No horse doing that lost as far as him last time
* With 1 run this year he looks weak
* These horses are usually Laid out for the race
* GAWAARIB looks the owners second string
* GAWAARIB won a 12f maiden last time
* Similar horses had a 1-7 record
* That winner had only 1 run this season not two
* GAWAARIB isnt for me especially second string
* PLANET WAVES is quite exposed with 12 runs
* Thats more runs than ideal
* 19 of the past 20 winners had under 10 runs
* I am uncomfortable with PLANET WAVES
* There were 2 seasonal debutant winners in this race
* Both had under 4 runs and won maidens last time
* TIME TO WORK is a debutant with 6 runs
* I looked at 83 similar races for similar horses
* I found just 1 winner who came from 10f
* TIME TO WORK is not like any winner of this race
* COLOUR VISION comes from a Nursery
* No past winner of this race did that
* I found 1 similar winner in 83 other races (1-12)
* That was a filly though and she came from 7f
* COLOUR VISION is unsafe but not a negative
* BROWN PANTHER comes from a 3yo handicap
* He does that with one run this season
* Plenty of winners did that but none had just 2 runs
* That makes him unsafe statistically
* The Ground could also be an issue for him
* FADHAA won a 9f 3yo Maiden last time out
* I found winners doing that but he has 1 run this year
* Those like him with 1 run that year were 0-14
* There are horses from 3yo maidens with 1 run that year
* None of these won last time out as we know (0-14)
* None of these had 2 career starts (0-5)
* I'd want a safer profile myself

SELECTION

* GOTTANY O´S comes from a 12f Conditions race
* I found 2 winners like that who had 3 and 4 career runs
* Unusual profile and I cant match him exactly
* He is Fit and in form and lightly raced all plusses



Cheltenham 5.00

5/2 Noble Ben, 7/2 Caulkin, 4/1 What Of It, 15/2 Silver Jaro 9/1 Ryeman, 11/1 Innocent Rebel, 12/1 Eight Palms
12/1 Imtihan, 25/1 Kericho, Ocheekobee, 28/1 Triple Bluff
33/1 Naxox, 50/1 Miss Nut Nut.

This is a 2m Hunter Chase and several past renewals of
this race. NOBLE BEN could well be good enough but I
don't see much I like about him and I intend to oppose
him because I have a much better profile in the race.

* NOBLE BEN - I plan to oppose him
* SILVER JARO - Questionable profile
* I like two profiles in this race
* This profile interests me

* Coming from a Novice Hunter Chase
* Running within a Month
* Beaten under 20 lengths last time out
* Aged 7 or 8
* In this race 6 horses had that profile
* These finished W W 3 W W W
* The 1996 2001 2002 2009 2010 winners had that profile
* CAULKIN shares this profile
* WHAT OF IT shares this profile
* Both are strong positives

Personally I prefer WHAT OF IT. Mainly because we have
a much stronger stable who are in great form. Also because
Caulkin has his form on sharp flat tracks and I dont know
if Cheltenham will suit. WHAT OF IT has no form here so
that is also a doubt but he has form on testing tracks.


SELECTION

WHAT OF IT 6/1 Win Bet
CAULKIN 9/2 Saver Bet






Punchestown 5.30

10/11 Kauto Star, 7/2 Nacarat, 9/2 Kempes
11/1 Tranquil Sea, 14/1 Roberto Goldback
20/1 Follow The Plan, 20/1 Rare Bob, 33/1 Vic Venturi.

I would want to oppose KAUTO STAR aged 11 and after
a very hard race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He is clearly
regressive and its asking so much of him to come here and
perform again and I feel the race is offering better options. I thought about NACARAT but this won't be his course as its undulating and finishes uphill and a long way from Flat tracks that serve him so well. I think you have to assume that KEMPES hates Cheltenham and it is not his track so a dissapointing Gold Cup run shouldnt be held against him now he is back on a track that suits him. This race can go to horses that flop at Cheltenham and KEMPES looks a reasonably solid option to me and if 8 run go each way.

Selection

KEMPES 7/2

* Each Way if all 8 run



Sedgefield 5.50

GOODWOOD STARLIGHT would be my choice



Sedgefield 6.25

6/5 Riptide, 5/1 Downward Spiral, 11/2 Cabbyl Doo
7/1 Rupin, 8/1 Bonnie Baloo, 9/1 Frosty Spring
16/1 Harbour Way, 50/1 Sirmuhta, 66/1 Eco Boxer
66/1 Morecambe Bay.

This is a Novice Chase. I looked at all similar races
around 2m 4f between April - May - June. Its quite
interesting that 6 year olds that came from Novice
Hurdles struggle unless they have Graded Form. The
320 similar races to these show 6 year olds without
Graded form before coming from a Novice Hurdle
have a 1-34 record. RUPIN fails that and I couldn't
match him to a winner. DOWNWARD SPIRAL also
fails that and didnt offer me enough. The strongest
profile has to be RIPTIDE as a 5yo winning a chase
last time. Statistically RIPTIDE is a clear choice.

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