No Full Bet Today

No Other Bets today

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS


Short message today. I may have underestimated the
cards today. Then again I may be right in thinking it
is a very difficult day with not much on offer. Either
way it has turned out to be a short message. I planned
for a few of them this week but this one has turned out
that way anyway because of the limited options today.


Sandown Saturday - Imperial Cup Statistics

These are at the bottom of the message and posted
on the message board. They just feel aggressive and
much too ruthless to me and I will be surprised if it
throws anything up. I will deal with that tomorrow.



There are just 4 previous today. They have produced
4 selections. It is certainly an unorthodox message. I
have let my angles lead me where they want and these
4 horses have come out as my only options today.

WINCANTON 2.00 - VIOLIN DAVIS 4/1

LEICESTER 2.30 - RED LAW 9/2

AYR 4.30 - TOP BRASS 8/1 Each Way

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.20 - LADY ELLICE 10/1

My first thought was that I knew I had some obscure
choices and I didnt like the cards much at all so I felt
it was possibly a day for a small staked Yankee each
way or some similar multiple bet. Then the problems
started to happen and I have abandoned that plan.


VIOLIN DAYS is now in a race with 7 runners and I
wanted her each way. She now is not a good enough
option. RED LAW comes out well but I cant pretend
I am not worried he is 5lbs out of the handicap which
must hurt his chance a bit. The angles suggest I should
keep the faith and stay with him but its a problem of
some sorts and it takes the shine off the bet. I have
been forced into TOP BRASS because I had a better
option in Almutaham at 14/1 who would have made
the bets today but he is now a Non Runner and that's
upgraded TOP BRASS from a danger to a selection.
That leaves me with LADY ELLICE is the difficult
3yo handicap tonight at Wolverhampton and that's
a race where your confidence has to be limited. It's
turned into a bit of a Dogs Dinner of a message and
I'm luke warm about it and a little dissapointed in it.

Small interest bets all the way for me. I decided to
have a Blank day. Not ideal but no point throwing
cash away. I feel like the cards have got the better
of me today. If it had been Monday or Tuesday I'd
have been happier with the message but for Friday
it doesnt feel good enough so I am writing it off.


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THURSDAY'S REVIEW

I was far from confident we would have a winner from
the additional bets yesterday and although we didnt It
was still dissapointing. I was probably a bit too trigger
happy to go with 3 bets. TOM O'TARA ran very well
in 3rd and I felt I had the race right with all negatives
beaten and the winner a positive and at the price I do
not have an issue with him. BEHINDCLOSEDDOORS
was probably a luxury. I think he was one of those to
lose his place chance trying to win the race and he had
little left at the end after making the running but with
hindsight and poor place terms I should have left that
bet alone. BEARNEED BOY didn't run as well as I had
hoped. Not really my kind of race or bet and asking a
lot for him to recover any stakes. Overdid it a bit and
probably pushed too hard much as we had small stakes.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



WINCANTON 2.00

Starsportsbet.co.uk Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle
(CLASS 4) (5yo+) 2m6f

7/4 Kells Belle, 5/2 Violin Davis, 9/2 Chilli Rose
7/1 Accordingtoeileen, 9/1 Farewellatmidnight
12/1 Lost Two Stars, 50/1 Carsington


This is a Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m 6f. There are
44 similar races at this time of year. I have to respect
KELLS BELLE winning last time but that was only a
maiden hurdle and over 2 miles and I felt she had lots
against her. Horses aged 5 had a 8-125 record

* Those from maiden hurdles were 0-26
* Those coming from 18f or shorter were 2-55
* Both winners had 5 + career runs and she has just 3
* Horses aged 5 with 1-2-3-4 career starts were just 1-84
* That winner came from 2m 4f and not 16f like her
* KELLS BELLE doesnt appeal to me

I dont fancy any of the rank outsiders and feel these
can be discounted. Horses from Bumpers are 0-67 in all
44 races so ACCORDINGTOEILEEN has to go.

POSSIBLES

* LOST TWO STARS does have a chance around 12/1
* I'd have prefered a better last run but 1 similar winner
* CHILLI ROSE comes from a Handicap
* She only has 2 runs this season and I'd prefer more
* I found a 1-10 record with her profile
* That winner was older and 7 years old
* Shortlistable but lack of runs worry me this year

SELECTION

* VIOLIN DAVIS is 5 years old
* She doesnt have to step up in distance
* She has 5 or more career runs
* That makes her a major player
* I found 4 similar winners to her

SELECTION

VIOLIN DAVIS 4/1

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LEICESTER 2.30

Queens Royal Lancers Novices´ Handicap Chase
(CLASS 4) (5yo+ 0-110) 2m

4/1 Nous Voila, 4/1 Olympian Boy, 5/1 Red Law
6/1 Akarshan, 6/1 Goodtimetoby, 13/2 Medicine Man
10/1 Autumm Spirit, 10/1 Golden Dream, 14/1 Salybia Bay.

* This is a 2m Novice Handicap Chase
* There are 46 similar races at this time of year
* OLYMPIAN BOY does not come out too well
* I looked at horses like him from Hurdle races
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs this season were just 1-48
* OLYMPIAN BOY has only had 3 runs this season
* That winner was much lighter raced than he is
* March has seen 284 similar Novice Handicaps at all trips
* I looked at these 284 races for horses from Hurdles
* Those with 9 or more runs like OLYMPIAN BOY won 11 races
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a poor 1-69 record
* None of these were absent more than 7 weeks like him
* OLYMPIAN BOY doesnt come out well
* GOLDEN DREAM has a questionable profile
* He comes from 3m to 2m with just 2 runs this season
* I looked at all similar Novice Handicaps at 16f -18f
* Horses that came from races over 2m 7f or more won 2 races
* Those winners had at least 5 runs that season
* They also had a recent race and he fails both angles
* GOLDEN DREAM looks unsafe to me
* There are 58 similar races between 2m and 2m 2f
* I looked at 5 year olds in these races and found 4 winners
* None were Mares like SALYBIA BAY
* None had under 9 career starts like SALYBIA BAY
* None were beaten as far as SALYBIA BAY last time
* SALYBIA BAY looks the wrong type
* Mares won 3 of the 58 similar races
* Mares with under 13 career starts were 0-30
* AUTUMM SPIRIT fails that with 8 career starts
* No mares like AUTUMM SPIRIT won from 2m 5f races
* AUTUMM SPIRIT looks vulnerable
* GOODTIMETOBY is 8 and comes from a 2m handicap chase
* I looked at horses aged 7 or more doing that
* Those without form in Class 2 or higher before
* There were 5 winners with that profile
* None were as inexperienced as GOODTIMETOBY
* All 5 winners were 1-2-3-4 last time out
* GOODTIMETOBY pulled up last time
* GOODTIMETOBY should appreciate the ground more
* He has not done enough yet to fancy

POSSIBLES

* AKARSHAN is 6 and has 21 career starts
* I looked at 6 year olds with 13 or more starts
* In 58 similar races they had a 2-30 record
* Both ran much better than he did last time
* I wouldnt rule him out as he loves it right handed
* His Chasing form leaves me cold after 4 runs
* It reads PU PU and defeats by 26 and 36 lengths
* NOUS VOILA comes from a 2m Novice Handicap Chase
* No horse aged 10 or more won with that profile
* I looked at exposed 9 year olds in these races
* He has a very complicated profile
* No winners were like him from a Novice Handicap
* Those from ordinary handicaps were different
* He looks shortlistable but there is a better profile
* MEDICINE MAN comes from a 2m Maiden hurdle
* There were 2 horses doing this and they were 2nd and 4th
* Both had 4 runs but were 6 year olds
* MEDICINE MAN is 7 and I feel neutral about him
* I looked at horses from 2m Maiden or Novice Hurdles
* In 58 similar races over 16f-18f they had a 0-9 record
* These horses finished 2 4 F PU 2 6 F 2 3
* MEDICINE MAN looks unsafe to me

BEST PROFILE

* RED LAW comes out best
* Male Horses aged 6-7-8
* Coming from Novice Handicap Chases over 2m 5f
* Running within 7 weeks
* Carrying 11st or less
* Horses with that profile had a 4-6 record
* These horses finished W W W 3 F W
* The 2008 winner of this race had that profile
* He also came from the same race as RED LAW last time
* One concern he is 5lbs out of the handicap
* That is an issue but it will help the price
* RED LAW looks the best option to me

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SANDOWN 3.30 - I think ICE TEA comes out best

WINCANTON 3.45 - BOLD ADDITION looks best e/w double

AYR 3.55 - I'd oppose SUNDOWN TRAIL and VALLLANI

AYR 3.55 - BUBBLY BREEZE would be my choice

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AYR 4.30

Coca-Cola Handicap Hurdle
(For The James Barclay Challenge Trophy)
(CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-105) 2m5f110y

11/4 See The Legend, 7/2 Miss Abbey, 13/2 Shooting Times
8/1 Lahib The Fifth, 10/1 Maid In Moscow 10/1 Top Brass
12/1 Fightstar, 14/1 Almutaham 20/1 I Witness
33/1 Monsoon Music.

* This is a Handicap Hurdle over 2m 5f
* There are 170 similar races at this time of year
* Mares that come from Novice or Maiden hurdles struggle
* Those without Graded Class form were just 1-50
* Those that had under 21 career starts were 0-48
* MISS ABBEY fails that
* MAID IN MOSCOW also fails that
* The only winner was radically different to both
* There are 936 Handicap Hurdles in March
* Thats 936 Handicap Hurdles at any distance
* I looked for Mares from Novice or Maiden hurdles
* Those aged 6 or more with 1-2-3-4 runs that season struggled
* These horses had a 1-89 record
* MISS ABBEY - MAID IN MOSCOW both fail that
* MONSOON MUSIC didnt do enough last time
* LAHIB THE FIFTH is exposed and from a handicap Chase
* Horses like him with No Grade 1 form struggled
* None were aged 10 or more (0-23) and he is 11
* I think he looks underraced this year
* FIGHTSTAR comes from a 2m Handicap Hurdle
* Horses doing that with 5-12 career starts won 4 races
* None of these were beaten as far as he was last time
* None of these were maidens as he is
* FIGHTSTAR just fails to make enough appeal
* I WITNESS has a poor profile
* SHOOTING TIMES is 6 and comes from 17f
* 6 year olds with under 13 runs drom 18f or less are 1-11
* That horse had 23lbs less weight than he does
* He also ran better than him last time
* SHOOTING TIMES looks shaky to me

POSSIBLES

* SEE THE LEGEND is a mare with 6 runs
* She comes from a 2m Handicap Hurdle
* Mares doing that with under 13 runs are 1-11
* That winner was 7 and she is 6
* That winner had a long absence and she doesnt
* That winner had won before and she hasnt
* SEE THE LEGEND is not a negative
* Equally she does have lots to prove still
* TOP BRASS has 1 run this season
* Horses doing that aged 9 or more with 9 + runs are 2-32
* Both winners had slightly less weight than him
* TOP BRASS is worth considering with backclass


SELECTION

* TOP BRASS Each Way

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AYR 5.40 - Problems with all runners except INNOMINATE


WOLVERHAMPTON 6.20

ATR Cheltenham Preview Monday 5.30pm
Handicap (CLASS 6) (3yo 0-55) 5f216y

5/1 Three Scoops, 8/1 Alfraamsey, 8/1 Lady Ellice
8/1 Magical Star, 9/1 Neytiri, 10/1 Burnem Green, 11/1 Libertia 11/1 Scommettitrice, 20/1 Seadream, 20/1 Two Feet Of Snow 33/1 Regal Rocket, 33/1 Welsh Dresser.

This is a 3yo handicap around 6f and we have 74 similar
races at this time of year. These races are always tough
as you can't predict improvement. I dont like fillies that
come from 3yo handicaps if absent over a month as all
41 lost and MAGICAL STAR and THREE SCOOPS both
have absences too long for me. SCOMMETTITRICE is
a fillies coming from a 6f handicaps with 13 + races and
I found only 1 similar winner who had a more recent run
and significantly more backclass. Fillies like LIBERTIA
with 3 career starts had a 0-37 record. She also has a 137
day absence and fillies absent over 3 months were 0-39
as well. I don't like BURNEM GREEN dropping in trip
with 1 run in a long time and well beaten in that. Happy
to ignore tha rank outsiders in the race. I would have to
oppose TWO FEET OF SNOW beaten too far last time.
I looked at fillies like NEYTIRI from a 3yo seller and I
found a 0-35 record. I don't like her draw either. She may
overcome both but I can't match her. ALFRAAMSEY is
respected but she is quite exposed now and has raced just
once since October. The best profile is LADY ELLICE.
I looked at fillies from 7f handicaps in the past fortnight
and found those without a defeat of more than 19 lengths
had a W W record. Around 10/1 LADY ELLICE appeals.

SELECTION - LADY ELLICE 10/1

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SANDOWN 3.00

Paddy Power Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-150) 2m110y

6/1 Arrayan, 8/1 Via Galilei, 10/1 Eradicate
12/1 The Betchworth Kid, 12/1 Alarazi, 14/1 Tito Bustillo
14/1 Prince Of Fire, 14/1 Pateese, 14/1 Old Way , Alpine Eagle 16/1 Kangaroo Court, 16/1 Fiulin, 16/1 Lucaindubai, 20/1 Ronaldo Des Mottes, 20/1 Numide, 20/1 Ultimate, 20/1 Drill Sergeant 20/1 Cheshire Prince, Arctic Wings, 25/1 Dona, 25/1 Caravel 25/1 Screaming Brave, 33/1 Points of View, 33/1 Song of Songs 33/1 Maoi Chinn Tire, 33/1 Mr Muddle

* The Imperial Cup is a 2m Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 18 renewals since 1992
* The last 10 winners had the following hurdle starts
* 5 3 3 2 11 4 3 4 4 4 8 8
* The last 10 winners had the following handicap starts
* 2 1 0 0 7 0 0 1 1 1 2 5
* Horses with 13 + career starts were just 1-87
* Two past winners had 1 run that season
* They were aged 6-7 and had 10st 4lbs or less
* They both had long absences and under 12hurdle runs
* Horses with 5 + runs this year are 3-100
* Horses with 5 + runs this year and 9 + career starts are 0-68
* Horses with 5 + runs this year And aged 7 or more are 0-35
* All 3 Horses with 5 + runs this year had 10st 3lbs or less
* Horses with 4 + runs this year And aged 7 or more are 0-65
* Horses with 4 + runs this year with 10 + career starts are 0-65
* Horses with 3 + runs this year And aged 7 or more are 0-77
* There has been a wide spread of ages winning
* Horses aged 4 (2-9) 5 (8-70) 6 (4-91) 7 (2-72) 8 (1-29) 9 (1-15)
* Horses aged 7 or more have won 4 renewals
* Three of these had under 9 career starts
* Those aged 7 or more with 3 + runs that year were 0-82
* Those 7yo's that won came here well beaten last time
* All 5 year old winners were 1-2-3-4 last time out
* Horses that had already ran in Grade 1 class were 2-65
* Those aged 6 or more doing that were 0-44
* Horses aged 7 or more with past Graded form were 0-65
* Horses with Past Graded form won 7 renewals
* Those running within 31 days were just 1-94
* Horses with Past Graded form not 1-2-3-4 last time were 0-68
* Horses that ran within a month won 6 of the 17 renewals
* When having 7 + runs they were 1-121
* When aged 7 or more they were just 1-74
* 5 of the 6 that ran within a month had under 10st 5lbs
* Horses from 2m Handicaps within 31 days were 0-86
* Only 1 female horse has won (1-17)
* Horses at 20/1 and over had a 1-151 record
* 16 of the 18 winners were either 1-2-3-4 last time out or fell
* 4 of the last 7 winners came from Novice Hurdles
* The 4 winners coming from Novice hurdles have these traits
* They had 2-6 runs
* They were all 1st or 2nd last time out
* They all had 10st 13lbs or less
* Horses with 4 + career wins were 0-78
* Horses with 3 + career wins were 1-137
* Horses with 11st 8lbs or more have a 1-34 record
* Horses with 10st 9lbs or more won just 6 renewals
* Those with 7 + career runs were 0-127
* Those with 1 run this year are 0-22
* Those running within 15 days were 0-42

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