No Bet Today


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TODAY'S BEST BET


SOUTHWELL 3.25

CAMPS BAY 2/1

Win Bet

No Additional Bets Today


One of those messages where there should be plenty
of winners because of the nature of the races. Small
fields. Obvious chances. We should find a few but I
felt there was nothing that stood out at all. Any of
half a dozen could have been my best bet today and
there are no Guarantee's I have picked correctly. I
like most of my selections today but nothing grabs
me as particularly significant. I have gone with this
horse as I think he has only LA ESTRELLA to beat.
Last time out LA ESTRELLA beat CAMPS BAY in
a selling race. Today CAMPS BAY has a big weight
advantage. He has also ran twice since. He has to be
fitter and as LA ESTRELLA could easily regress as
he has raced just once since last March I have to be
optimistic that CAMPS BAY can take this race. I
dont want to pretend he is anything exceptional as
a bet though. He is one of several that could win in
the mail and I found it hard to choose between them.

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS


WEDNESDAY'S SUMMARY

A Little bit frustrating yesterday. My best bet finished
4th when I was on each way and if you include the two
Additional suggestions the 3 horses ran well without it
being enough. It was far from certain any would win as
they were big prices and stakes and confidence reflected
that but it might have been better. INQUISITRESS ran
a lot better than many might have thought considering
how badly she drifted in the betting. She looked to have
secured a place and a profit for us but she was mugged
very late and that 3rd turned into 4th place which was
the difference between winning and losing. AFLAAM
also got mugged late being in front inside the last and
fading back. In Hindsight PINSPLITTER was probably
the best option each way. He ran an excellent race and
was a fast finishing 2nd and only beaten by the brilliant
ride the winner got. That might well have been the bet
I should have gone with yesterday. Dissapointed not to
get something back from the day but not unexpected.


TODAY'S MESSAGE


Today there are 11 Previews. A Generic message that
ignores Wolverhampton tonight. I have done 5 races
at SOUTHWELL. The field sizes are quite small today
on the Sand which doesn't make it easy and prices are
also shorter than you'd like. I have 3 races each at the
FFOS LAS and KELSO meetings. The National Hunt
cards are not bad but once you ignore the Bumpers and
Hunter Chasers and the races with odds on unopposable
horses like Peddlers Cross there are not that too many
races that offer us anything. Therefore settled on just
11 previews all medium sized and none extraordinary.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


KELSO 1.40

2/1 Music Of The Moor, 9/4 Priceless Art
5/1 Jukebox Melody, 11/2 Bogside, 11/1 Rumble Of Thunder
14/1 Gin Cobbler, 14/1 Nisaal, 16/1 The Galloping Shoe
33/1 Why Are You Asking, 50/1 Quel Elite, 66/1 Barello Road
66/1 Northern Acres, 100/1 Arikinui, 100/1 Saga Surprise
200/1 Cigalas, 200/1 Daredevil Dan.

This is a Novice Hurdle over 2 Miles. Messy statistically as you have PRICELESS ART from "jumpers bumpers" which
are statistically impossible to assess and a horse whose saddle slipped last time in MUSIC OF THE MOOR who has basically only had 1 real race rather than two. Quite a decent race and forced to pick it would have to be MUSIC OF THE MOOR as he has hurdling experience unlike his main dangers and could have been unbeaten. Lightly raced 4 year olds score well and in a race where you can only guess he would be mine.

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SOUTHWELL 1.50

11/10 Jack´s Revenge, 9/2 Ace Master
11/2 Three Opera Divas, 7/1 Reachforthebucks
100/1 Come On Eileen.

This is a 3yo handicap over a mile. Dangerous races and not
my forte but a strong profile and interesting to see how I get on here. I didnt like ACE MASTER enough winning at 7f last time out when experienced as he is. COME ON EILEEN didn't do enough just 2 days ago. Statistically there is no reason why REACHFORTHEBUCKS can't win this and he is a dangerous floater. THREE OPERA DIVAS has a good profile and has a decent chance having ran second to JACK´S REVENGE only 9 days ago. At the revised weights there must be optimism for her chance but JACK´S REVENGE did win last time and comes out as the strongest profile in this race.

* JACK´S REVENGE has a strong profile
* He won an 8f 3yo Handicap last time out
* He runs within 2 weeks
* He is a Male horse
* Similar horses had a 6-8 record
* Those with 4 runs like him were 4-5
* Those with 9st 1lbs or more like him were 5-5

There has been a gamble on REACHFORTHEBUCK who
hasnt run in a long time. He has a reasonable profile and I
have found winners like him so I respect his chance. That
reduces confidence in JACK´S REVENGE but it also makes
his price bigger. I will go with JACK´S REVENGE here and
hope that he has enough ability to win this race.

SELECTION - JACK´S REVENGE

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FFOS LAS 2.00

7/2 Invictus, 7/2 Teaforthree, 4/1 Tullyraine 6/1 Grey Gold
9/1 Saint Are, 12/1 Barbatos, 12/1 Shootin The Breeze
20/1 Roper, 25/1 Fireitfromye, 25/1 Maringo Bay, 25/1 Silver Token, 33/1 Alesandro Mantegna, 33/1 Croan Rock
100/1 Bridge Street Boy, 200/1 Fair Rome.

This is an interesting Novice Hurdle. Hard to split the 3
main runners. I have INVICTUS as a decent positive and
I also have TEAFORTHREE and TULLYRAINE also as
good positives as 7 year olds from Graded Hurdles. That's
3 solid profiles and why I expect GREY GOLD might get
squeezed out and have to rely on a place rather than a win.
Alan King said this week that INVICTUS was his big hope
this week and he would have won last time out were it not
for a slip up. Interesting in the Albert Bartlet betting for Cheltenham that INVICTUS is a bigger price to win there
than either TEAFORTHREE or TULLYRAINE are yet we are being invited to bet him today at shorter odds. It is obvious INVICTUS has a big chance here but surely he is an each way double bet rather than a win bet if you bet him. I could quite happily finish with INVICTUS as the bet but he has no better a profile than either of his two main dangers and I don't rule out either of these winning.
In the end I prefered the split stake bet as I can't really
call this but it made sense to cover all angles in the race.

SELECTION

Split Stake

INVICTUS Win Bet 7/4
TULLYRAINE Place Bet 4/5

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SOUTHWELL 2.20

7/4 Alpha Tauri, 7/2 General Tufto, 4/1 Duplicity
6/1 Bajan Pride, 8/1 Elusive Warrior, 25/1 Crocodile Bay

This is a Mile selling race and there are 121 similar races at this time of year. Not happy with any of these completely. I didnt want BAJAN PRIDE exposed with a long break and vulnerable. ELUSIVE WARRIOR and CROCODILE BAY
come from 7f sellers just 2 days ago and I could not match
them to winners. DUPLICITY is 4 and has to come from
6f to 8f and hardly ideal for a horse who has hardly beaten
any opponents in his last 5 races. ALPHA TAURI has fair
claims but he's up in trip and so few unexposed horses won
these races doing that and none like him. It may be worth
risking GENERAL TUFTO with as solid a profile as any
down in distance but crucially with his recent run and he
does know how to win 8f races here. Unsafe but my pick.

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FFOS LAS 2.30

9/4 Reblis, 3/1 Arturo Uno, 6/1 Sordid Secret
7/1 Cold Harbour, 15/2 Winterwood, 8/1 Moorlands Teri
12/1 Buailteoir.

This is a 3m Novice Handicap Chase. The potential here
to get your fingers burnt is obvious. You have 5 of the 7
runners trained by two neighbouring stables. You have 6
of the 7 runners well beaten last time out. I felt this was
a mess. The best runner statistically was REBLIS whose
only ahead as he wasn't as bad as the other profiles and
not being well beaten last time elevated his profile to a
bit better than the others. It looks a mess and probable
that something who had a hidden excuse last time might
show that to be the case and pop up and win. My choice
would be REBLIS as he had less flaws in his profile. The
nervous selection here for me would have to be REBLIS.

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KELSO 2.40

3/1 Always Right, 4/1 Camden George, 4/1 Phardessa
11/2 Dawn Ride, 7/1 Lockstown, 8/1 Heez A Steel
14/1 Hockenheim, 14/1 Or De Grugy.

This is a Handicap Chase around 2m 6f for 0-126 rated
horses. There has been 237 similar races at this time of
year. I wasnt keen on ALWAYS RIGHT. I looked at all
horses with 1 run this season and under 9 career starts.
Those without Graded form had a 1-44 record and that
winner was younger and had less weight and won recently
and ALWAYS RIGHT didn't and has a nasty absence. He
didnt appeal to me. I wasn't keen on PHARDESSA either.
No Mares won any of the 237 races with just 1 race that
season so instantly I can't match her. I looked at horses
of any sex with 1 run that season coming from 2m 4f or
shorter. There were a few winners but not one had 13 or
more career starts like her. Throw in the fact she comes
from Hurdles as well and I didnt like her profile. I would
also oppose HOCKENHEIM with 1 run this season and
up in distance. I see weakness with HEEZ A STEEL. He
may be lightly raced over fences but he is exposed and 10
and has only ran twice this season and thats not a lot for
a horse lacking Graded form before and that has to carry
a high weight. I couldn't match him to a winner. I wasnt
convinced by OR DE GRUGY exposed and pulling up on
his last start. LOCKSTOWN is hard to read. I see him as
more of a positive than negative but he won last time in
a race where no other horses finished and horses coming
from Novice Handicaps like him tended to have form in
Graded Class before and he hasn't. The only winner doing
it without Graded Form was different and a high weight so
I do see him as unsafe. I would have to shortlist 2 horses.

DAWN RIDE - Has enough to shortlist
CAMDEN GEORGE - No problems with his profile

SELECTION

CAMDEN GEORGE 9/2

Each Way if 8 run
Otherwise win only

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SOUTHWELL 2.50

11/4 Davana, 3/1 Antoella
7/2 Astrodiva, 7/2 Sirdave, 6/1 Harrys.

This is an awful 12f maiden race for older horses. Its hard to imagine a more repulsive set of options. I am tempted to go with the Racing Post Ratings which suggests SIRDAVE looks the one. Looking at all similar races I couldnt find any older mares down in trip like ANTOELLA of ASTRODIVA. None of the older mares were exposed like DAVANA is. HARRYS lost by quite a way only 5 days ago and I suspect he didnt run well enough last time. Overall I'd just prefer SIRDAVE.

SELECTION - SIRRDAVE

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FFOS LAS 3.05

100/30 Lady De La Vega, 7/2 Rith Bob
4/1 Gilwen Glory, 11/2 Illysantachristina, 8/1 Sweet Seville 10/1 Bringewood Belle, 12/1 Copsehill Girl, 20/1 Pearl 25/1 Railway Diva.

This is a Mares Handicap Hurdle over 2m 6f. There are
only 12 similar races at this time of year. There are 44
Mares races at any distance. I'm opposing RITH BOB.

* Febuary has 44 Mares Handicap Hurdles at any distance
* Horses from Novice Hurdles won 6 of these races
* Those aged 7 or more doing this were 0-38
* RITH BOB fails that and is rejected
* January to March have 104 Mares Handicaps
* Thats 104 Mares Handicaps at Every distance
* Horses from Novice Hurdles aged 8 or more were 0-30
* RITH BOB fails that and is rejected

I'd also avoid 7yo RAILWAY DIVA from a maiden hurdle
especially beaten so far in that race. If you look at the 104 Mares Handicap Hurdles between January - March at every
distance horses that came via Chases struggled with a 3-82
record. None of them were like SWEET SEVILLE. None of
them were like LADY DE LA VEGA either. She comes via
a Handicap Chase and horses doing that are 0-46 and thats
over a 3 month period at any distance so I see her as wrong
and LADY DE LA VEGA also has less experience than any
of the 3 winning Chasers. I feel PEARL is not ready to win
and underaced this year for an exposed horse. COPSEHILL
GIRL is hard to read. I can't make her a negative but there were not too many positives about her and I'd be Neutral with her. I'm also neutral about ILLYSANTACHRISTINA as well harder to read. Slight preference for GILWEN GLORY.

SELECTION - GILWEN GLORY Each Way

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KELSO 3.15

7/4 King O´the Gypsies, 2/1 Premier Sagas
7/2 Thumbs Up, 9/2 Alfie Flits, 40/1 Soul Magic

This is a Novice Chase over 2m 1f. I looked at all Novice
Chases in Febuary between 2m and 2m 2f. There were 555
of these races. KING O´THE GYPSIES is a 6 year old and
comes out surprisingly weak. If you take 6 year olds without Grade Class form before you find 12 winners. However none of these had under 7 starts as he does. None had only 2 runs that season either. In fact almost all had at least 4 runs that season and I didnt see a great profile there. He was a decent hurdler but he has only one chase run and unseated rider so I think I should oppose him with a weak profile. I could not bet SOUL MAGIC. I see ALFIE FLITS as unsafe after a bad last couple of runs much as his stable are capable of finding mysterious improvement. The Best profiles have to be both THUMBS UP and PREMIER SAGAS. Having more practice this year just shades it to PREMIER SAGAS but its close so I wouldnt rule either out but PREMIER SAGAS is just my bet.

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SOUTHWELL 3.25

2/1 La Estrella, 9/4 Camps Bay
11/2 Eton Fable, 12/1 Royal Holiday, 25/1 Bullring.

This is a 12f Claiming race for all aged horses. Its complicated as nobody will know whether LA ESTRELLA will keep his form having won last time out after a 699 day absence. He outclassed a bad field but he could easily bounce and regress today or do the same. I'm happy to oppose BULLRING and ROYAL HOLIDAY who I felt was unsafe and far from certain to stay 12f here. It is hard to read ETON FABLE with perhaps a better chance than it looks despite finishing last in his last two races. Overall I see him as too risky. This leaves CAMPS BAY with a reasonable profile My selection would be CAMPS BAY.

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SOUTHWELL 4.35

6/4 Steed, 3/1 Elhamri, 9/2 Smalljohn, 6/1 Ace Of Spies
16/1 Buzz Bird, 16/1 Thunderball, 20/1 Gala Casino Star.

This is a 7f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses. There are 453
similar races at this time of year. I am happy to oppose the out of form GALA CASINO STAR and BUZZ BIRD. There
are no winners like THUNDERBALL dropping down from a
10f Claimer. I respect SMALLJOHN who won last time but
it was his 1st run since last August and I wouldnt be convinced abouy him because of that especially on a surface he has not yet won on before. I felt ELHAMRI had a good profile despite going up in trip and there were winners like him but he hasn't come close to proving he stays 7f especially here and I would worry about his stamina. ACE OF SPIES was behind him last time but I didn't see enough positives in his profile. I couldnt
find a better option than STEED who is on a roll and might
be able to land a 4 times.

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