No Strong Bet Today


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TODAY'S BET

NEWCASTLE 3.15

MINELLA BOYS 4/1

Win Bet


Bits of 9/2 and 5/1 (Betfred) but I would
not take less than 4/1 and feel he will be
at least that and maybe more later on.

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2 ADDITIONAL BETS


Only very small stakes on these two.

NEWCASTLE 3.15

MINELLA BOYS - BALLYFOY

Forecast/Exacta Bet



LINGFIELD 4.55

PEGASUS AGAIN 12/1

Win Bet


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Always was going to be a shorter Saturday message
today for reasons given this week. Chepstow being
Abandoned takes even more options away. There's
very few oppurtunities today but one stand out bet.
I like a busier Saturday message and usually have a
large one but neither the cards or the circumstances
allow that today so an unusually shortened message.

Statistics in very long distance Handicap Chases that
are run after Christmas are very strong and time and
time again they work out and prove to be extremely
accurate. Even recent 100/1 Grand National winner
Mon Mome had an excellent profile. Newcastle has
got extremely Heavy Ground today and it takes such
a fit horse to win a race like the Eider. I think we are
coming to a Cheltenham Festival that will be littered
with horses that are simply not fit enough to win due
to hold ups during the winter and I plan to exploit it.

Back to the Eider Chase MINELLA BOYS is simply
the only horse guaranteed to be fit enough to win the
race. You can argue that if he runs badly it might be
because he has had several tough races this year and
may need a break but that can't be predicted before.
The only horse I am scared of is BALLYFOY and I
would also suggest a forecast with both horses. May
be getting arrogant to say Overquest may be a tricast
option as well. I'll just be happy with the winner. It
is a day where I have few other options bar the Eider
so our day will depend on the result of that race.


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MESSAGE THOUGHTS

Three Previews Today


KEMPTON 3.00
KEMPTON 4.10
NEWCASTLE 4.15


CHEPSTOW - Abandoned


LINGFIELD

I have left LINGFIELD alone today. Not an card to
mess with and it looks pretty hideous there. If I had
done a preview it would have been the 4.55pm race.
Very tight race and you will need luck but I shortlist
three horses here. Buaiteoir and Titan Triumph are
considered and respected but PEGASUS AGAIN 12/1
looked a good price for a horse with a good profile
and He'd be the one that interested me most here.

KEMPTON

There are two previews at Kempton but several of
the races there are untouchable from any statistical
point of view and the hands are tied in many races.
I've made a tight call in favour of BAKBENSCHER
in the Racing Post Chase. The other previews look
better to me. I like OCEAN TRANSIT in the 4.10
and feel she is my best bet at Kempton but the rest
of the card doesnt offer me anything good enough.

NEWCASTLE

I like my Eider Chase work. It is the only preview
at Newcastle. There wasnt much I could do with a
lot of the other races. I'd have tipped Chamirey in
the Novice Chase at 4.25pm. I decided not to look
at the 2.15pm for a selection. Strangely enough It
was topweight Washington Irvine that came out as
the best profile but its heavy and he has only had
one run this year and has a big weight so plenty of
concern with him. He did come out best. I think I
should stay with the Eider Chase and that alone.


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FRIDAY'S SUMMARY

Quite an interesting day. Small profit on one bet and
with the second bet losing there was just about a small
loss on the day. I felt I got both races almost right. It
started with POSH EMILY each way who placed at a
big price. Pleased the negatives lost. Pleased the shock
winner was on my shortlist and quite pleased with how
POSH EMILY ran. I think the most pleasant thing in
the race was our jockey taking the places seriously did
all he could to get 3rd and make us a bit of profit. We
gave that back with INCENTIVISE who was beaten in
a tight finish. Had every chance and looked the winner
but was beaten by the only other horse I liked as well.
It was annoying for me as I turned the winner down in
running at 14/1 when I felt he was my danger so missed
out there. INCENTIVISE ran his race and didnt do too
much wrong but just found one too good. Minimal loss
from the two bets ever allowing for the saver so not a
lot to worry about. Steady enough message yesterday.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



KEMPTON 3.00

Racing Post Chase Handicap Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

5/1 Fistral Beach, 5/1 Nacarat, 6/1 Quinz, 8/1 Bakbenscher
9/1 Mostly Bob, 10/1 Sagalyrique, 12/1 Hey Big Spender
12/1 Tatenen, 14/1 Razor Royale, 16/1 Polyfast
20/1 Crescent Island, 20/1 Door Boy, 20/1 Ringaroses
25/1 Piraya, 33/1 Safari Adventures, 40/1 Free World
40/1 Mount Oscar.

* The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m
* There has been 16 renewals of this race.
* Febuary and March have seen 136 Handicap Chases
* Thats 136 Handicap Chases at 3m in Class 2 or higher
* FISTRAL BEACH doesnt offer enough for me
* Not keen he has just 1 run this season
* No past winner of this race had 1 run that season
* In 136 of these races I looked at those with 1 run this year
* When coming from 22f or shorter there were 3 winners
* Those with 7 or more career starts were just 1-35
* That winner had less weight and a more recent run
* CRESCENT ISLAND has the same problems to overcome
* RINGAROSES is wrong with 1 run this season
* None of the 136 winners came from 18f or shorter
* All 32 lost and FREE WORLD fails that
* QUINZ comes from a Novice Chase
* No winner of this race came from an ordinary Novice Chase
* Horses doing that in 136 other races had a 3-59 record
* None were aged 7 like QUINZ (0-14)
* None had as much weight as he does either
* Horses beaten in a Novice Chase last time were 0-24
* QUINZ also fails that and doesnt come out well enough
* MOUNT OSCAR is out up in trip aged 12
* SAFARI ADVENTURES is exposed and up in trip
* He lacks the backclass to overcome that
* PIRAYA is exposed up in trip with 1-2-3 runs this season
* Similar horses had a 1-51 record
* That winner had more backclass than PIRAYA
* He also flopped in last years race and wants a small field
* RAZOR ROYALE won this race last year
* This year he has a much inferior preparation
* He is exposed this year and has far fewer prep runs
* He also has a nasty absence which doesnt help him
* I dont see him bouncing back to form with his profile
* MOSTLY BOB comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* He only has 9 career National Hunt Starts
* Horses from Novice Handicaps with under 13 runs are 0-14
* MOSTLY BOB fails that and looks wrong to me
* I looked at all 8 year olds from Novice Handicap Chases
* I found only 1 winner and he had far more backclass
* MOSTLY BOB only has 3 career Chase starts
* Thats very inexperienced and he fell in one of those chases
* The 16 winners of this race had the following Chase starts
* 9 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 13
* The lightest raced chaser to win this Gloria Victus (2000)
* He had 5 runs which is far more experienced than he is
* MOSTLY BOB doesnt look right with 3 runs from handicaps
* DOOR BOY doesnt appeal much to me
* Well beaten on all starts this year
* I couldnt find a winner like him in the 136 races
* His lack of form this year makes him vulnerable
* POLYFAST is 8 and won a Handicap Chase last time
* That was over 2m 5f and there are 4 similar winners
* They all had a more recent run than him
* They all had more backclass as well
* POLYFAST hasnt been out of Listed Class yet
* 3 or the 4 similar winners had Grade 1 form before
* They all came from higher in the weights as well
* His form over this far raises stamina doubts too
* Statistically he doesnt make the grade for me
* SAGALYRIQUE is 7 and comes from 2m 4f or shorter
* I found 1 similar winner doing that
* He did have a bit more backclass than he does
* The issue with SAGALYRIQUE is if he has the class
* My best guess is that he wont
* The overnight rain wont have helped him either
* With Blinkers and a Tongue Strap he doesnt feel like the one

POSSIBLES

NACARAT - BAKBENSCHER
HEY BIG SPENDER - TATENEN

* NACARAT doesnt have a major statistical problem
* The 2004 winner (Malborough) had a very similar profile
* His stable is out of form though
* HEY BIG SPENDER is 8 and won a 21f handicap last time
* I found 3 similar winners with that profile
* They all had Grade 1 form and a high weight and recent run
* HEY BIG SPENDER also fits that profile
* The 2001 and 1999 winners of this race had that profile
* HEY BIG SPENDER has a good profile for me
* One doubt is whether he can recover from his last race
* Only 14 days ago it would be a small concern
* No horse won this from 2m 5f in the past fortnight
* The other is whether a right handed flat track suits
* All his best form came away from tighter tracks
* It was tight at Warwick last time but not right handed
* TATENEN is 7 and won a 22f handicap last time
* I found 1 similar winner in the 136 races
* TATENEN has to prove he stays 3 Miles today
* His 4 runs at 3m and more have been bad defeats
* He was not fancied in 3 of those 4 runs
* Wrong to assume he doesnt stay based on that record
* His trainer is on record as being unsure if he stays 3m
* Shortlistable on his profile his biggest issue is stamina
* BAKBENSCHER is hard to read from a Graduation Chase
* Plenty to like about his profile
* Not least a good recent win and strong form right handed
* Statistically he is hard to assess because of his last run
* The Positives far outweight the doubts for me

SELECTION

All 4 have at least one concern as mentioned above. I see
TATENEN placing but perhaps not staying well enough to
win. NACARAT is respected and looks saver material with
topweight. The last four winners were 8 year olds and that
and a recent run steers me towards BAKBENSCHER 9/1


BAKBENSCHER Win Bet 9/1

( Nacarat - Optional Saver)

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NEWCASTLE 3.15

Totesport.com Eider Handicap Chase
(CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-150) 4m1f

7/2 Minella Boys, 9/2 Belon Gale, 9/2 Giles Cross
13/2 Morgan Be, 8/1 Comply Or Die, 10/1 Ballyfoy
12/1 Flintoff, 14/1 Companero, 14/1 Negus De Beaumont
20/1 Newman Des Plages, 25/1 Dawn Ride, 25/1 Overquest.

* The Eider Chase is a 0-144 handicap over 4m 1f
* Newcastle have had 14 recent renewals
* The Race was Abandoned in 1994 - 2003 - 2005 - 2010
* There has been 55 similar handicaps at this time of year
* Thats 47 races between Febuary and March
* Thats every handicap chase at 3m 7f + in Class 3 or higher

* In the Eider horses with 1-2 runs that year were 0-44
* I would be concerned about horses lightly raced this year
* MORGAN BE only has 1 run this season
* BELON GALE only has 1 run this season
* GILES CROSS only has 2 runs this season
* COMPLY OR DIE only has 2 runs this year
* COMPANERO only has 2 runs this season
* I want to try and firm up the negatives for these

* Look at the 47 similar Chases in Febuary and March
* Exposed horses won 11 of these 47 races
* Those that had 1-2-3 runs that season were 0-101
* That 0-101 record shows exposed horses need many runs
* COMPLY OR DIE fails that as an exposed 12 year old
* I dont think he has enough runs this season
* MORGAN BE is exposed and only has 1 run this year
* I have to see him as potentially short of fitness

* Horses with 1-2 runs this season struggle
* They have to be very lightly raced without Grade 1 form
* I looked at horses with 1-2 runs this year
* Those without Grade 1 Class before were 3-113
* These 3 winners were the following
* Garryvoe - Stratford 2007 with 8 career starts
* Iris De Balme - Folkestone 2008 with 5 career starts
* Philson Run - Uttoxeter 2005 with 3 career starts
* The only winners with 1-2 runs this year had under 9 runs
* Those that had more than 9 career starts were 0-64
* GILES CROSS fails this with 1-2 runs this year
* He has 12 Career starts more than any winners with 1-2 runs
* None of the 3 winners carried his weight anyway
* COMPANERO fails the same statistic
* He has just 1-2 runs this year and no Grade 1 Class
* He also has over 9 career starts
* COMPANERO is also 11 years old
* There were only 4 winners aged 11 or more in the 47 races
* None of these won with under 4 runs that season
* COMPANERO has only had 5 chase starts
* Thats very inexperienced for a race like this
* Since 1990 the Eider Chase winners had these Chase starts:
* 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8 16 11 9 19 29 13 17 9
* The least experienced Chaser to win this had 7 Chase runs
* COMPANERO has two less than that and doesnt appeal
* BELONG GALE only has 1 run this season
* None of the 47 winners won with his profile
* Throw in a 101 day absence and he looks vulnerable

* We know Exposed horses with 1-2-3 runs this year struggle
* In 47 similar races these horses have a weak 0-101 record
* FLINTOFF fails that with 3 runs
* NEWMAN DES PLAGES also fails that with 3 runs
* NEGUS DE BEAUMONT also fails that with 3 runs
* FLINTOFF also has a testing absence as well
* He has Pulled up on his last 3 Chase runs before
* FLINTOFF doesnt offer me enough
* NEWMAN DES PLAGES has stamina doubts
* French Bred and no form beyond 3m 2f
* I wouldnt be certain he would stay anyway
* NEGUS DE BEAUMONT has only had 7 Chase Starts
* He has Pulled up in 3 of these races
* He has Fallen at the first fence in another
* He doesnt look fluent enough for this race

* DAWN RIDE has very little backclass
* He is Exposed but has no form beyond a Class 3 race
* I looked at Exposed horses in these 47 races
* Those without Listed or Graded Class before were 2-73
* Both those winners won last time out
* Those like DAWN RIDE that didnt were 0-57
* He has never run in this Class before
* He is 10lbs higher than his best career win before
* DAWN RIDE will probably lack the class to win
* OVERQUEST also lacks backclass
* Horses with his profile really need a better last run
* Most horses like him won last time out
* OVERQUEST may lack the class for this
* BALLYFOY comes from a Novice Hurdle
* Horses doing that with 1-2-3-4 runs this year were 0-17
* Overlooking that he is 10 with 1-2-3 runs that season
* Similar horses with 13-20 career starts were 3-41
* Those with no Grade 1 form before had a 1-23 record
* That winner didnt come from 2m 5f as he does
* Only 2 of the 47 winners came from 2m 5f or shorter
* Those with 9 or more runs doing that were 1-32
* That winner had 5 runs this year and was harder raced
* He also had more backclass and won last time out
* BALLYFOY is respected but I cant match him to a winner

SELECTION

* MINELLA BOYS is well raced this season
* I looked at horses with between 13 and 20 starts
* Coming from a Handicap Chase
* Those aged between 8-9-10
* Those with 3-4 runs this season
* Those with form in Grade 3 but no higher
* Those that placed last time out
* Those coming from 3m 1f or longer last time out
* I found a 5-13 record with these horses
* MINELLA BOYS has the strongest profile for me
* 9 of the last 11 winners have been Second season chasers
* MINELLA BOYS is also a second season chase
* 13 of the last 14 winners had 4 and 11 Handicaps Chase runs
* MINELLA BOYS fits that well with 5 HC runs
* The issue may be has he had too many hard races
* He took in the Devon and Sussex Marathons coming 1st-3rd
* He was then 2nd in the Warwick Classic Chase
* If that was not 1 run too many then he looks backable


SELECTION

MINELLA BOYS

My danger is Ballyfoy

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KEMPTON 4.10

Racing & Football Outlook Handicap Hurdle
(CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) 2m5f

9/2 Mr Hudson, 5/1 Nicene Creed, 6/1 Ocean Transit
13/2 County Zen, 10/1 Benfleet Boy, 10/1 Ostland
12/1 First Stream, 12/1 Higgy´s Boy, 12/1 Rollwiththepunches 16/1 Den Of Iniquity, 20/1 Paint The Clouds, 25/1 All For Free 25/1 Causeway King, 25/1 Gee Dee Nen, 25/1 Puzzlemaster 33/1 Be Definite, 33/1 Georgian King.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 18 renewals of this race
* There has been 93 similar races elsewhere at 2m 5f

There is a long history in this race and I want to use that to find a suitable shortlist. This race has been dominated by the lighter raced Hurdlers. Horses that had 13 or more career runs had a poor 1-86 record in this race. You want to concentrate on horses with Under 13 runs. That rules out quite a few like BENFLEET BOY - COUNTY ZEN and DEN OF INIQUITY. You want to avoid horses thats raced within the past fortnight. Horses aged 9 or more are 0-42 in this race. I dont like horses that came from 17f or shorter like NICENE CREED who has an unorthodox profile. HIGGY´S BOY and CAUSEWAY KING also come up in distance. FIRST STREAM didnt do enough on his last run. BE DEFINITE doesnt look ready to win and unfit
and I'd argue the same for OSTLAND as well.

MR HUDSON

There is a dilemma with him having had 3 career starts from a Novice Hurdle. First of all in this race no previous winner had under 4 runs. They had 8 12 10 7 9 9 7 17 6 9 5 9 10 9 6 runs and the least experienced winner of this race still had at least 3 more runs than MR HUDSON does. I looked for similar horses in the 93 other races. These being horses from Novice hurdles over 2m 4f or shorter without any Graded Form. Those with 4 or fewer races had an unimpressive 1-13 record. MR HUDSON shares that record. The only winner that won came here after
a win and MR HUDSON did not win last time. Given all that I
think I will try and get MR HUDSON beaten. I Shortlist three.

ROLLWITHTHEPUNCHES - Shortlistable

PAINT THE CLOUDS - Solid Profile

OCEAN TRANSIT - Worth shortlisting


SELECTION

I am tempted by Paint The Clouds but feel he would be
much happier with faster ground. I felt the strongest bet
her was OCEAN TRANSIT. She has come good after a
small operation. Fit and in form. All her wins come on a
right handed track. Form on soft ground. Recent race as
well. Tough race to sort but I like OCEAN TRANSIT best.

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