No Bets Today

Little interest in today's Racing and no more than
a practice message. This is the first time I've done
today's racing in years and that shows. Picked out
just a small handful of Non Handicpaps today but
nothing interesting and I'm going to start the week
properly tomorrow. Reluctant to give a Nap given
how underprepared I am. Aiteen Thirtythree may
well be the one in the 3.10pm but must stresss the
message is deliberately undercooked and raw today.


M e s s a g e T h o u g h t s

First message of the week. Monday is currently my
quietest day of the week. It needs to be again today.
It will be a week of change. The Flat season will be
put to bed at the weekend so we are now in the final
week. The Sand season will start properly then and
I will have more time for the Natonal hunt. I want
to do something for the November Handicap. The
Paddy Power Gold Cup a week on Saturday is also a
race I want a full preview for and I have done some
work on that race already and feel its a race that is
going to suit me. From Wednesdays message I will
bring back the time messages are sent probably by
an hour to 11am or 11.15am. Now the clocks have
gone back and racing starts a bit earlier the current
12pm time is too late so it will change Wednesday.


Today with a typically light day I am just going to
summarise some of the National hunt racing and I
am ignoring the All Weather at Wolverhampton.
Saturdays message was very good early but not too
good later on. I think I messed the message up and
made a mistake by commiting too much at Ayr. It
was dreadful ground there and many horses couldnt
cope and I shouldn't have gone with a selection in
such conditions especially one that carried so much
weight. The selection and those bets I considered as
options let the message down. It took the shine off
some really good winners at the bottom and it was
better than it looked and I blame myself for a few
bad decisions that presented a good message badly.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


I did 10 Minutes work on the Melbourne Cup and
came up with a shortlist. Its run tomorrow at 4am
in Australia. I looked at the Draw advantages in a
massive field. I looked at a few other angles that I
found on the web. Its interesting the race seems to
always go to horses that ran in the past 3 weeks a
statistic I like. I had two horses I liked bets with 2
others that I would argue are the 3rd and 4th best
so it is a two tier shortlist in a race for tiny stakes.

Shortlisted - LUCAS CRANACH - AT FIRST SIGHT
Selections - AMERICAIN - DUNADEN

I think AMERICAIN last years winner is interesting
each way around 9/2 with 4 places but it feels wrong
to be taking such a short price in a huge field run in
foreign lands. Maybe AMERICAIN is a better Saver
with the main stake suggested on DUNADEN but it
has to be said its only 10 silly minutes work and if
I get the winner it will be a lucky fluke and no more.



P l u m p t o n 12.50

4/6 Judiciary, 9/2 Platinum, 9/1 Jodawes, 12/1 Hudibras
12/1 Water Garden, Shinko Moon, 25/1 King´s Colour
25/1 Maelstrom Sea.

This is a 2m Maiden Hurdle. I wanted a bit more
from JUDICARY considering we are being asked
to bet him at odds on. He will probably win but I
couldnt find a once raced 4yo winning a similar
race coming from a recen maiden hurdle. Harder
to read WATER GARDEN and he does need to
improve. If he was solid in the market it might
well be sensible to bet WATER GARDEN each
way against him. If I had the choice of betting
4/6 about JUIDCARY to win the race or betting
WATER GARDEN to place at the same price I
think I'd rather go with WATER GARDEN. It's
a decision that will be influenced by how many
actually run and what prices they are but that's
my view given the options. WATER GARDEN
to place looks the better option to me.


K e m p t o n 1.00

3/1 Iron Condor, 3/1 Plenty Pocket, 7/2 Zama Zama
9/2 Dubawi Phantom, 8/1 North Cape, 16/1 Setter´s Princess
20/1 Murphy´s Choice, 20/1 Taigan, 20/1 Tiagra
100/1 Storming Redd.

There are probably four likely winners of this race as
I think North Cape is unlikely to be strong enough to
beat all the experienced horses. I see 4 decent profiles
none are exceptional so they seem tightly matched. I
would argue DUBAWI PHANTOM is statistically the
best option as he was won on his only start. He might
need to jump a bit better today but he looks the best
bet each way in this race. I will go with him as he's a
Class horse on the flat and comes out best statistically.
Looks an each way bet given the frame of the race but
I would have been happier if I had some big negatives.


P l u m p t o n 1.20

5/2 Fly Town, 11/4 Tara Rose, 5/1 Flite
5/1 Sapphire Rouge, 10/1 Cloudy Wager, 10/1 Silver Wren
12/1 Bach To Front, 40/1 Cider Lolly, 100/1 Polly´s Star.

There are not many of these Mares Novice Hurdles
at this time of year. You want to oppose the horses
coming from Bumpers especially if they are ordinary
and non Listed class Bumpers. That means I should
be against SILVER WREN and FLITE. Margins are
tight between several of these. FLY TOWN would
have persuaded me more with at least one more run
and TARA ROSE with a more recent race. None of
these are very safe. I'll go with SAPPHIRE ROUGE
each way as I have found a handicapper like her win.


K e m p t o n 1.30

15/8 Grab The Glory, 9/4 Twentyfourcarat
3/1 Billy Merriott, 10/1 Zagova, 12/1 Kumasi Clan
20/1 Fifi L´amour, 20/1 Struanmore, 50/1 High Kite
50/1 Rebelious.

There are probably only 4 horses that can with this
2m 5f Novice Hurdle. I dont want KUMASI CLAN
as no unraced 4yo has won a similar race on a Grade
One track at this time of year. ZAGOVA doesn't do
much for me and offers little. There is a contrast as
BILLY MERRIOTT comes from a Maiden Bumper
last year and TWENTYFOURCARAT comes from
the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. Strangely it
doesnt really matter statistically. I looked at all the
5 year olds like BILLY MERRIOTT coming from
Maiden Bumpers last season. Just an average profile
and what few that did win all had 1 or 2 career starts
and he has 3 so he doesn't leap off the page. I didnt
se a great record of horses from a Grade 1 Bumper
either and none that were som inexperienced for a
6 year old. GRAB THE GLORY has the best profile
in the race. He looks a natural each way double bet
for those liking those bets. Those that dont I'd see
GRAB THE GLORY as the choice to win the race.



K e m p t o n 2.40

This is a Class 2 Handicap hurdle over 2m 5f with
a handful of possible winners. Some are complicated
to judge. I would question BEYOND as a 4 year old
without a run this year. I know he has raced on the
Flat but he is a short price and not sure he will have
the class from bottomweight. He's a small horse as
well which doesnt draw me to him any more. I just
felt at the prices he was too short. I couldnt find a
winner like ON BORROWED WINGS. No horse his
age or older won first time out when carrying as much
weight and none came from Novice Handicaps either.
I thought COCKNEY TRUCKER has a solid chance
of a place but few horses his age have won these sort
of races. KING OF THE NIGHT has a decent chance
his main problem being whether the weight will beat
him. In the end I was safer with a split staked bet.

KING OF THE NIGHT - Win Bet 4/1
COCKNEY TRUCKER - Place Bet 11/8


K e m p t o n 3.10

1/2 Somersby, 13/8 Aiteen Thirtythree, 20/1 Gee Dee Nen.

I wouldnt want to sort this 2m 4.5f Grduation Chase
out statistically. Not sure you can anyway. My view
is the bet should be AITEEN THIRTYTHREE. The
race should be between him and SOMERSBY. I take
the view SOMERSBY is the better all round horse so
does set the standard but may well have problems in
staying an extened 2m 4f first time out. He isn't the
guaranteed stayer many think and not sure I'd want
to trust his trainer to have him ready first time out.
Whilst AITEEN THIRTYTHREE may want a bit
further he does at least stay and he looks a Smaller
field horse. He is fancied to win the Hennessy next
month and I'd take him to win this race before that
race. It has to be AITEEN THIRTYTHREE at 6/4.


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