Mathematician 973 | 06-06-2011 |
* Todays Main Message will be at 4pm *
I didn't want another evening message but feel it
makes sense. Only Folkestone this afternoon and
its not my favourite place. Tonight we have better
cards at Windsor and Pontefract so it makes sense
to spend a bit more time on those and come back
at 4pm for the evening racing. Running a bit behind
as always on a Monday so this message is just one
or two brief comments about Folkestone. At 4pm I
will do something for the evening cards tonight.
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Saturday's Summary
Very unusual to have two messages on a Saturday. Little
choice really as I felt the morning message would not do
well and was substandard. Decided to start again and look
to the evening cards. The only bet MUNSARIM won and
considering I didn't think I had anything at all earlier I'm happy I went with him as I was weak in many other parts of the message. It was an important bet as I've been cold lately and struggling a bit and sometimes all it takes is the 1st winner. Lets hope so because it helps the confidence.
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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
F o l k e s t o n e
Margins are very tight in the 2.30pm and 7 runners does
not help us. My angles suggest I should be aware that 4yo
fillies like ISHIPINK need more runs that season and that
expsoed mares like IMAGINARY DIVA also want more
as well. They show 14 year olds like THE TATLING too
old. DISPOL GRAND would be much safer with a recent
race. The best 2 profiles are RADIATOR ROONEY and
COMMANDINGPRESENCE. Had their been 8 runners I
would have gone with a win and place bet. I will suggest a
split stake bet on both but only if you have to play in the
race because there really isnt much in our favour here.
F o l k e s t o n e 3.00
3/1 Katy´s Secret, 100/30 Miss Firefly, 7/2 Roodee Queen
9/2 Dvinsky, 10/1 Diamond Johnny G, 10/1 Fawley Green
16/1 Ghost Dancer, 33/1 Stonecrabstomorrow, 40/1 Crazy
In Love, 50/1 Public Image.
This is a 6f Claiming race. I've looked at all similar races at this time of year. I have problems with any 4 year old filly like KATY´S SECRET when having just one run this season. I'd have to oppose her looking at that record and I also oppose GHOST DANCER with 1 run this year when
so many more are much fitter. I don't want DVINSKY as
two things put me off him. I can't find a horse winning as
old as him coming down in trip but mainly the draw puts
me off him. FAWLEY GREEN doesnt offer me enough
and I can't match him to a winner. ROODEE QUEEN is
opposed. You do get the odd 3yo filly winning these but
most had more backclass than her and you are better off
with older horses.
* MISS FIREFLY has a reasonable profile
* She has the best draw and many runs this year
* With a recent run there is a lot to like
* Against him is her form is only modest
* There are better horses in the race at the weights
* DIAMOND JOHNNY G is very hard to read
* He makes it on the shortlist
* Few have any idea what makes him tick and he is unsafe
* Down in Class I would give him a chance
* His run here back in April would win this easily
* Twice ran poorly since and no idea if he can bounce back
* DIAMOND JOHNNY G is given the chance to show his class
Not overkeen in the small field handicaps at 3.30pm
and 4pm. I would have opposed WELSH INLET as a
filly up in distance in the 3.30pm race but that wasnt
enough to give me a decent edge in a scrappy race.
The 4pm is too difficult. Its a 2m Handicap and I am
against ON TERMS not liking her profile. That said
there are national hunt runners hard to match and in
a messy race nothing had a strong profile. I would be
more interested in WILD DESERT but this is messy.
The 12f handicap at 4.30pm is another messy race
and 7 runners again. CHORAL FESTIVAL looks an
unsafe runner as a Mare with 1 run that season. I am
against SUNSET BOULEVARD as an older horse up
in trip and with an absence. BARBIROLLI didnt run
well enough the other day. I feel MUSASHI has flaws
up in trip and exposed with just a few runs this year.
I respect GEMS who may be the danger to VINCES
who I just felt came out with the best overall profile.
The 5pm maiden looks a three horse race. I can not
rule out JUNOOB but there has to be a chance he is
being handicapped and I prefer the other two horses.
SATWA DREAM is given maximum respect but as
he gives weight for age away ZAKON does have the
slightly safer profile as the 3 year old. Not enough
for me to consider any interest in this trappy race.
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