No Bet Today


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No Advised Bets from the Message

We will start back on the bets tomorrow when
the Flat gets busier. Today the racing deserves
the message it has got. Low grade and Boring.


I did quite like GOODMANYOURSELF 10/1
in the 5.10pm at Southwell. I know nothing
about the horse but he was the only horse to
have a profile anything like a typical winner
of a race like this. He has also being backed
as I type which makee him interesting. Not
a safe choice but he would be the bet I would
highlight as worth a nibble from the message
but as I said yesterday it was always going to
be a quiet message today before tomorrow.

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS


Tomorrow the Craven meeting starts and we will get some
regular choice now with more meetings on the Grass and a
chance to do some decent messages and find strong angles.

FOLKESTONE will be bitterly dissapointed to get just 36
runners on a 7 race card. There are actually races there to
offer something surprisingly enough but its small field bad
racing and not that much I can do with some of the races.
The fields are not much better at SOUTHWELL either. I
have a couple of National Hunt opinions but nothing great.

Today was a neccesary nusiance. The message just delivers
some Mini Previews or short paragraphs totalling 15 races
which is a lot more than I thought I'd end up with. I have
not aimed for anything too investigative and acomplished.
Only a standard Tuesday message with bad racing before a
lot more choice tomorrow which will break the monotony.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



S O U T H W E L L 2.10

100/30 Attrition, 4/1 Clear Ice, 4/1 Lucky Art
5/1 Kheley, 6/1 Spic ´n Span, 12/1 Memphis Man
16/1 Cheveyo, 16/1 Gorgeous Goblin
20/1 Shakespeares Excel, 50/1 Avec Moi.

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-60 rated horses
* 9 past renewals but no relevant other races
* The following make no appeal
* GORGEOUS GOBLIN - AVEC MOI
* SHAKESPEARES EXCEL is too inexperienced
* I dont fancy MEMPHIS MAN
* Oldest horse with the oldest absence
* This is surely too short a trip now
* He hasnt won at 5f since he was a 3yo in 2006
* 9 past renewals of this race
* Interesting horses with 9st 7lbs or more are just 1-43
* SPIC ´N SPAN with no claimer on board fails that
* None came from maidens like CHEVEYO either
* LUCKY ART provides a dilemma
* LUCKY ART looks very well handicapped
* A Dilemma is horses drawn very low look disadvantaged
* The compromise could be a saver on him
* CLEAR ICE looked like winning well last time
* He was caught my a horse that has since won again
* ATTRITION also has to be considered a positive
* The 3 last named horses look best to me

SELECTION

ATTRITION 9/2
Each Way

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FOLKESTONE 2.30

8/13 Novabridge, 4/1 Arowana, 4/1 Magical Star
14/1 Dangerous Illusion, 33/1 Veuveveuvevoom

There has only been 1 of these 3yo sellers over 5f in the
past 10 years at this time of year so statistically its little more than a useless race. NOVABRIDGE will be hard to
beat even without a recent run. I just wonder whether the
filly MAGICAL STAR could catch her out first time. She
will be considerably fitter and shaped as though she could
handle a drop in trip here last time. I would just give her
the benefit of the doubt and hope her fitness gives her a
chance of beating the favourite. MAGICAL STAR for me.

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SOUTHWELL 2.40

9/4 Precocious Kid, 11/4 X Rated, 4/1 Lightning Cloud
6/1 Areef, 16/1 Mini´s Destination

* This is a 7f Maiden race for 3-4 year olds
* X RATED was beaten too far 10 days ago
* Coming down from 10f to 7f he is weak
* MINI´S DESTINATION is outclassed
* No strong views about the remaining horses
* PRECOCIOUS KID looks promising with 1 run
* He was beaten in a 3yo maiden last time
* LIGHTNING CLOUD has more experience
* He just had a more rounded profile
* I would chance LIGHTNING CLOUD from the two

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FOLKESTONE 3.00

9/4 Black Baccara, 5/2 Dream Number ,7/2 Magical Speedfit.

This is a small field 5f Handicap. I looked at all similar
races at this time of year. I've looked at 4yo fillies like
DREAM NUMBER who dropped in distance from 6f
on their first run of the year but none had 13 or more
previous races and she looks unimpressive statistically.
I couldnt match BLACK BACCARA either for similar
reasons as a 4yo filly down in distance. She has nothing
in the way of backclass and all 4yo fillies as exposed as
her achieved more than she has. MAGICAL SPEEDFIT
is an exposed seasonal debutantwho starts the year on a
career high mark. Its annoying but had Even Bolder ran
after running yesterday I'd have gone with him as a big
bet but he's a non runner. I dont think its impossible to
see MAGICAL SPEEDFIT outclassing these despite a
career high mark and no run this year. I like him best.

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SOUTHWELL 3.10

11/8 Ingleby Arch, 9/4 Benato The Great
100/30 Bonnie Prince Blue, 8/1 Cape Of Storms
33/1 First Term, 50/1 Sophie´s Beau.

* This is a 6f Claimer
* Horses aged 4 dont have a good record
* SOPHIE´S BEAU and FIRST TERM easy to reject
* Uncomfortable with BENATO THE GREAT
* Just 3 runs is very low for a Claiming race
* CAPE OF STORMS will need some to dissapoint
* INGLEBY ARCH is the most talented horse here
* BONNIE PRINCE BLUE is the fittest horse here
* Normally I prefer the fittest horse
* This time I'm more tempted with INGLEBY ARCH
* I have found 8yo winners with absences
* With a second favourite with inexperience
* It may be a race to consider a forecast
* INGLEBY ARCH to beat BONNIE PRINCE BLUE

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FOLKESTONE 3.30

13/8 Marcus Antonius, 3/1 Not Til Monday
6/1 My Valley, 6/1 Swordsman, 7/1 Stormy Morning
12/1 Morar

* SWORDSMAN - His age/absence put me off
* MORAR - comes out badly as a mare with an absence
* MARCUS ANTONIUS is a 4yo Male
* He has no form beyond a Class 4 race
* I looked at similar horses with 5 or more runs
* Those with 1 race that season were 0-29
* There are holes in his profile
* STORMY MORNING - Difficult absence but 1 similar winner
* NOT TIL MONDAY - Hard to read and overall positive
* There is a stamina doubt to consider with him
* MY VALLEY - Unsafe as an older mare
* My best profiles are these two horses
* STORMY MORNING - NOT TIL MONDAY

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FOLKESTONE 4.00

5/2 Thoughtsofstardom, 7/2 Crystallize
5/1 Diddums, 5/1 Evey P, 5/1 Gold Story, 8/1 Stargazy

This is a 6f Apprentice Handicap. I have looked at this and
all other 6f Handicaps. The only 4 year old to win coming
from a 5f race like GOLD STORY ran within 2 weeks and
a 60 day absence wont help him. He lacks any backclass as
a 4 year old and has never won before. EVEY P comes out
badly as a 4yo filly with only 6 career runs and an absence. STARGAZY has been absent too long. CRYSTALLIZE has a recent run and that counts for plenty but he has to show he's effective at this distance when all his significant form is over 7f and 8f. DIDDUMS comes out well and must have every chance in this race. THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM has to prove he can win at 6f having all his career wins at 5f but I think he can. He is fit and only last year he was 2nd in an Apprentice race at Folkestone beaten by a horse that we now know to have been thrown in at the weights. The most likely winner here is THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM.

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FOLKESTONE 4.30

4/11 Yair Hill, 8/1 Casternova, 12/1 Deerslayer
14/1 Heavenly Pursuit, 14/1 Indian Wish, 16/1 Storm Runner
66/1 Trust Me Boy.

This is a 7f Maiden for all aged horses. It looks a penalty
kick for YAIR HILL on his 2 year old form. What bothers
me a bit is his trainer John Dunlop is regressing as a trainer and well past his best and you'd like to have seen winners from this stable this year and there havent been any. It is also a concern CASTERNOVA is a legitimate threat as all 3yo debutants and 3-28 in these races and she has to be a danger. I dont like much else and suspect YAIR HILL will probably be too strong for the unraced filly but there are a few doubts in my mind considering his price.

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SOUTHWELL 4.40

9/4 Formulation, 4/1 Hill Tribe, 5/1 I´m Super Too
5/1 Postman, 8/1 Elusive Fame, 12/1 Exit Smiling
14/1 General Tufto, 16/1 Elusive Warrior.

* This is an 8f Handicap for 0-73 rated horses
* Southwell have 16 similar handicaps in April
* All 16 ran within 7 weeks as debutants were 0-28
* I´M SUPER TOO has a lot to prove as the only debutant
* ELUSIVE WARRIOR is wrong down from 12f
* EXIT SMILING doesnt offer enough
* I dont like his draw or his absence for a 9yo
* GENERAL TUFTO is wrong well beaten over 10f last time
* I wouldnt have selected POSTMAN
* ELUSIVE FAME has a chance
* His jockey has only had 4 career rides though
* HILL TRIBE is respected but I cant match her
* Not as a 4yo filly down in distance
* HILL TRIBE would be my main danger
* FORMULATION - Decent enough profile
* FORMULATION may win if handling the track

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TAUNTON 4.45

3/1 Dolores Ortiz, 9/2 Shoudhavenownbettr, 6/1 Stravita
6/1 Tiger Dream, 8/1 A P Ling, Bari Bay, 10/1 Motor Home
12/1 Ostaadi, 16/1 Southway Star, Whatshallwedo, 20/1 Rolanta.

This is a Selling Handicap over 2m 1f and there are 81
similar races in April. DOLORES ORTIZ is a mare and
has just 3 runs from a Novice Hurdle.

* Mares with 3 runs were 0-27
* Mares from Novice Hurdles won 2 races
* None had under 5 runs
* None were aged 5 like her
* None were unplaced like her as well
* There were 10 winners from Novice Hurdles
* Those with 3 career runs were 0-44
* DOLORES ORTIZ looks the wrong type to me

The problem is none of the others have solid profiles
either. My best guess of the rest would be OSTAADI.

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TOWCESTER 5.00

11/10 Irish Guard, 2/1 Red Jester, 7/2 Kikos, 14/1 Beherayn

This is a 2m Handicap Chase. Because RED JESTER
and KILOS are both exposed and have absences of at
least 3 months I couldnt match either to winners. It
is probably best left to IRISH GUARD

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FOLKESTONE 5.05

4/5 Viking Storm, 11/4 History Girl, 6/1 Frolic Along
14/1 Bad Sir Brian, 14/1 Shalamiyr, 50/1 Back For Tea
50/1 Bearneen Boy.

This is a 12f Maiden and the quality is very poor. Safest
choice has to be VIKING STORM who I would prefer to
be with rather than a filly like HISTORY GIRL first time
out albeit from a strong stable.

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SOUTHWELL 5.10

11/4 Geronimo Chief, 4/1 Little Jazz
5/1 Ad Value, 5/1 West Leake Melody, 6/1 Jay Jays Joy
10/1 Goodmanyourself, 12/1 Dancing Tara, 33/1 Elegant Star.

* This is a 3yo handicap over a Mile
* I couldnt bet LITTLE JAZZ as a filly from 12f
* No winners came from 12f races
* I looked at every similar race all year round
* There were 900 + of these races in Class 5-6-7
* Fillies that came from 12f races were 0-63
* LITTLE JAZZ looks vulnerable
* ELEGANT STAR looks weak
* DANCING TARA is a filly from a 6f race
* Fillies with that profile were 1-64
* That winner was radically different and shes a risky bet
* I looked at all horses that had races as 3 year olds
* In other words all horses that ran since January 1st
* Those absent 7 weeks or more had a 0-63 record
* WEST LEAKE MELODY fails that
* JAY JAYS JOY also fails that
* Horses from 3yo handicaps over 7f struggled
* Those with 1-2-3 runs that callender year were 1-98
* JAY JAYS JOY fails that
* GERONIMO CHIEF is a seasonal debutant
* Seasonal debutant with 5 or more had a poor 2-175 record
* None came from 8f like him
* There are 2 horses with decent profiles
* GOODMANYOURSELF has a standard profile
* AD VALUE also has a typical winning profile
* AD VALUE is from a sire with no wins here yet
* GOODMANYOURSELF is highly risky
* On his profile he comes out as the best profile

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FOLKESTONE 5.40

4/5 Ya Hafed, 2/1 Zain Al Boldan, 5/1 Crystal Sky.

This is a 3yo Handicap over an extended 9f. I have looked
at every 3yo handicap in April at any distance and none of
them went to a filly like ZAIN AL BOLDAN with just one
career start. There were winners with 1 previous race before at different distances. None were fillies like her. None were absent as long as her and none came from an Auction maiden like her either. Statistically YA HAFED is much better. He's not set a high standard though and will probably be lower in the ratings at the end of the year than ZAIN AL BOLDAN but this will be his best chance to win. I can see an argument that suggests ZAIN AL BOLDAN has little to overcome and should be expected to win but the statistical argument right or wrong is we should trust YA HAFED which I will do. It's not impossible to see CRYSTAL SKY winning either if she can put a dissapointing last run behind her. My selection is YA HAFED.

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TOWCESTER 6.20

2/1 Balerina, 7/2 Sara´s Smile, 5/1 The Strawberry One
6/1 Businessmoney Judi, 13/2 Kaffie, 9/1 Bow To No One
18/1 Osmosia, 20/1 Landenstown Rose, 25/1 Lady Treacle
40/1 Beech View, 50/1 Truly Magic, 66/1 Prime Design.

Only 14 of these Mares Novice Hurdles at this time of
year. None of these came from Bumpers and as that is
effectively what THE STRAWBERRY ONE is doing as
she fell at the first on her hurdles debut I'm against her.
BUSINESSMONEY JUDI is also from a Bumper and a
long absence also hurts her. KAFFIE also comes from a
Bumper albeit a Listed race one. The bottom line is we
dont have enough similar races to know how badly the
disadvantage is. BALERINA is respected much as 4yo's
are not the best age group. I think the best profile here
has to be last time out older winner SARA´S SMILE.

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