No Strong Bet Today


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T o d a y ' s S e l e c t i o n


1 Bet Today

T h i r s k 4.05

MISS TOPSY TURVY 9/4

Win Bet


M e s s a g e T h o u g h t s

Goodwood gets harder today and only four races there
I can do anything with and I am up against it. Thirsk
offers us three previews. Bits and Bobs elsewhere and
I've done some evening work at Bath and Newmarket.

Not happy really with today's message. It doesnt flow
as well as the last few have. Problems with Misstiming
and choice of races. I wouldn't expect a classic today.
I just haven't got it where I want it. What I want to do
is rescue a badly structured message that I do not think
will offer you much by trying to get a winning selection.

I had two options today. I like BIG NOISE in the 7.30
at Newmarket. He makes some appeal each way and is
my second choice today. I thought 5/1 was more than
reasonable and I backed him at Leicester last time out
and he gave me the impression he could win soon. I'm
going with MISS TOPSY TURVY though. Reasons in
the message later on. I feel she can take the race and
hopefully she can make up for a badly planned message.


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T h u r s d a y 's S u m m a r y

Good winner yesterday with LABARINTO and carrying
on a bit of good recent form. Pleased with how I'm doing
at Goodwood much as today is a bit harder. We managed
another winner from four races I liked best and overall a
reasonably strong message with the important 2 winning.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S




T h i r s k 2.20

7/2 Lady Jourdain, 5/1 Choice Of Remark, 6/1 Lolita Lebron
8/1 Jimmy The Lollipop, 8/1 Latte, 8/1 Yammos
16/1 Beaumaris 16/1 Jaci Uzzi 16/1 Koalition
33/1 Lady Advocate 33/1 Loving Emma, 66/1 Bea Persuasive.

* This is a 7f Claimer for 2 year olds
* Thirsk have 18 renewals of this race
* There are 54 similar races in July and August
* The last 12 winners of this race all had 4 + runs
* I would ideally want 4 or more runs here
* LOLITA LEBRON looks a negative a filly with 2 runs
* Fillies with under 3 runs struggled
* They were 0-52 in this race
* LOLITA LEBRON also has the worst draw
* My Draw analysis states Stalls 1 and 2 are horrible
* CHOICE OF REMARK is not for me either
* I hate his draw and he could be regressive
* Well beaten last time in a 7f seller I didnt like him
* BEAUMARIS has a weak profile and looks underraced
* None of the outsiders look potential winners
* KOALITION is unsafe but not a negative
* YAMMOS - I can see why some may fancy him
* I can't match him to a winner though and he is unsafe
* JIMMY THE LOLLIPOP is in the same boat
* Down in class you can fancy him but no similar horses won

S h o r t l i s t

* JACI UZZI has a fair profile and looks a big price
* LADY JOURDAIN has a reasonable profile
* Wont pretend I'd rather have more runs
* LATTE - Reasonably good chance

Selection

* JACI UZZI 25/1 Each Way



T h i r s k 2.55

3/1 Dialogue, 5/1 Carragold, 5/1 Hayek, 7/1 Muftarres
8/1 Baharat, 10/1 Sairaam, 10/1 Wigram´s Turn
12/1 J R Hartley, 12/1 Mark Anthony, 20/1 Emeralds Spirit
33/1 Ellies Image.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-75 rated horses
* There are 515 similar races at this time of year
* The worst draws for me are Stalls 1 and 2
* Since 2008 Thirsk has 35 similar races with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1 and 2 had a 1-64 record
* HAYEK has the worst draw in stall 1
* I did think HAYEK had a decent profile though
* DIALOGUE has a bad draw in Stall 2
* I felt he had an unimpressive profile as well
* Underraced this year his absence hurts his chance
* First run for a new stable there are risks with him
* CARRAGOLD is unsafe but not a negative
* I found 1 unexposed 5yo like him winning an 8f race
* That horse had form in a Class 3 race before
* CARRAGOLD hasnt been out of a Class 5 race yet
* The following horses have weak profiles
* BAHARAT - J R HARTLEY - ELLIES IMAGE
* WIGRAM´S TURN is absent too long
* MARK ANTHONY lacks the backclass for his absence
* SAIRAAM is a mare and needs a more recent run
* EMERALDS SPIRIT - Needs more runs this year
* MUFTARRES - I can live with his profile

S h o r t l i s t

* MUFTARRES and HAYEK have the best profiles
* HAYEK - He has the best profile but a poor draw
* MUFTARRES has a better draw but less exciting profile

Selection- Split Stake Bet

MUFTARRES Win Bet 8/1
HAYEK Win Bet 6/1


G o o d w o o d 3.10

3/1 Green Destiny, 6/1 Sagramor, 10/1 Riggins
12/1 Cai Shen, 14/1 Dance And Dance, 14/1 Highland Knight
14/1 Namecheck, 14/1 Pintura, 14/1 The Rectifier
16/1 Boom And Bust, 16/1 Proponent, 16/1 Sooraah
25/1 Confront, 25/1 Mr David, 33/1 Lovelace
33/1 Man Of Action, 33/1 Mont Agel, 33/1 Vainglory
40/1 Pleasant Day, 50/1 Advanced.

* This is a Mile handicap for 0-105 rated horses
* This race has had 17 renewals since 1994
* There are 99 similar races at all tracks
* GREEN DESTINY has dominated the market
* He is a very short priced favourite for a race like this
* GREEN DESTINY won a 10f handicap 20 days ago
* I looked at 4 year olds winning 10f handicaps last time
* None tried to win with under 9 runs
* I looked at 4 year olds winning any handicap last time
* Those with under 9 runs were 0-10
* Statistically he is not impressive enough for a 11/4 chance
* I am hoping there will be a better profile at better odds
* No horse aged 7 or more have won this race
* In 99 other races horses aged 7 won just 4 races
* Those absent more than 2 weeks were 1-89
* PROPONENT - VAINGLORY fail that
* LOVELACE - RIGGINS also fail that
* Horses aged 7 or more need a good recent run
* ADVANCED fails that and is also rejected
* Horses aged 6 have only won 1 renewal of this race
* I looked at 6 year olds in 99 other races
* CONFRONT looks underraced with 2 runs this year
* MONT AGEL is 4 from 7f with 1-2-3 runs this year
* 4 year olds with 9+ runs like him doing that were 0-15
* I can't match him to a winner but he is not a negative
* Horses absent over a month score badly
* In this race they have a 1-66 record
* They score better at the other tracks
* SAGRAMOR is 3 and absent a month
* He comes from a 3yo handicap
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race before
* Similar horses were 1-24
* Those however with 4 or more runs like him were 0-22
* SAGRAMOR doesnt offer me enough
* PLEASANT DAY comes out badly
* PINTURA is an exposed 4yo down in trip
* No winners had that profile and he looks unsafe
* He also looks badly handicapped and is 0-12 in this class
* BOOM AND BUST was well beaten in a Listed race
* I can't match him to any winners
* NAMECHECK is 4 and won an 8f handicap last time
* No 4yo won again with under 13 career starts
* NAMECHECK only has 7 career starts
* I couldnt match him as well as I'd like
* SOORAAH is a 4yo filly
* There were 2 Fillies aged 4 winning in 99 races
* None had 13 or more runs like SOORAAH
* None came from Listed aces either
* She isnt a typical winner of these races
* CAI SHEN is 3 and come from a Conditions race
* Horses aged 3 doing that were 0-52
* With that record I cant do much with him
* MAN OF ACTION has a complicated problems
* His overall profile just fell short


P o s s i b l e s

* GREEN DESTINY is opposed because of his price
* As I said earlier there are flaws in his profile
* You have to be aware he is well handicapped though
* Not a negative but opposed at a short price
* MR DAVID is similar to 1 winner at a different track
* I would see MR DAVID as a "Possible"
* DANCE AND DANCE is like 1 winner
* Not keen on his absence or his weight
* I did find a 5yo winning with similar issues
* THE RECTIFIER is similar to 1 winner elsewhere
* HIGHLAND KNIGHT is 4 and won an 8f handicap last time
* I found 2 winners that came out and won again
* On a career high mark but he is unexposed
* Hard to be confident about any of these
* HIGHLAND KNIGHT 16/1 looked as good as any
* HIGHLAND KNIGHT would be my choice



G o o d w o o d 3.45

4/5 Harbour Watch, 5/1 Bannock, 6/1 Eureka
6/1 Saigon, 7/1 Bogart, 8/1 Caspar Netscher
12/1 Parc De Launay, 14/1 Factory Time
16/1 Right To Dream, 20/1 Silverheels.

The Richmond Stakes doesnt throw up anything that
interesting this year. Hard to find any reasons to miss
HARBOUR WATCH. His trainer is dominant here in
this race and horses with his profile had a 2-2 record
in the race. I prefer him to his stablemate Eureka and
I can't find a maiden winner like Bogart absent as long
as he is. Bannock would be the most exposed winner in
decades and I feel HARBOUR WATCH may well win.



T h i r s k 4.05

2/1 Miss Topsy Turvy, 3/1 Pretty Diamond, 4/1 Sangar
6/1 Tidal Run, 8/1 Bollin Mandy, Celani. 50/1 May Burnett.

This is an unusual 3yo handicap for fillies over 12f and
very few of these races are run. I could criticise a few of
these as unsafe such as PRETTY DIAMOND having an
absence. TIDAL RUN not doing enough last time but I
don't see great angles here. What I liked about the race
was MISS TOPSY TURVY. She has a significant Dam
whose last two foals turned out to be top class and she
may well be better than she showed. I had her as weak
and a negative two runs ago at Windsor. Last time she
was second. She may have met a well treated horse on
that occasion but I love the way both horses pulled so
far clear of the third horse. She is quirky and not sure
you can trust her but equally she gives the impression
the penny is only just starting to drop and she may be
capable of more improvement of any of these. I feel
this race is a great chance for her to win her 2nd race.
I prefer her to SANGAR winning at 10f last time out.

Selection - MISS TOPSY TURVY



G o o d w o o d 4.20

6/1 West Leake Hare, 7/1 Lord Ofthe Shadows
15/2 Mabroor, 9/1 Goldoni, 10/1 Glee, 12/1 Poetic Dancer
12/1 Royal Blush, 12/1 Whinging Willie, 14/1 Bounty Seeker
14/1 Captain Cardington, 14/1 Commanche, 14/1 Mr Knightley
14/1 Pride And Joy, 16/1 Bronze Angel, 16/1 Sir Glanton.

This is a 7f Nursery and I think it's too difficult. I had a look at all similar races at this time of year. GLEE didnt come out that well. Fillies from 2yo maidens managed a few wins but none of these had just 2 runs like her. None
won last time out either and her 82 day absence will hurt
her too. ROYAL BLUSH has the same problems so looks
sensible avoided. LORD OFTHE SHADOWS also comes
out badly from a 5f conditions race something no winner
did and with an absence as well I look elsewhere. Coming
from an Auction maiden over 6f WEST LEAKE HARE
looks wrong and I can't match him. SIR GLANTON has
little that appeals so is opposed. WHINGING WILLIE
comes out badly. These would be my main negatives and
I didnt like any of them. Quite what wins this sort of race
would only require a complete guess. I think there is some
strength in depth here. If I was betting here I would rather lay all the above horses to lose the same ammount. This will probably mean you are getting odds against the other horses in the race. Short of doing that I'd have to guess in the race so I will try for BRONZE ANGEL each way.



G o o d w o o d 4.50

5/1 Chachamaidee, 6/1 Khor Sheed, 6/1 Maqaasid
7/1 Dever Dream, 10/1 Memory, 11/1 Rhythm Of Light
12/1 Law Of The Range, 12/1 Perfect Tribute, 12/1 Rimth
12/1 Tropical Paradise, 16/1 Pyrrha, 16/1 Sharnberry
20/1 Rockatella, 20/1 Thai Haku, 25/1 Magic Eye
33/1 Dawn Eclipse, 50/1 Cochabamba.

* The Oak Tree Stake s is a Group race over 7f for Fillies
* Last years winner was 4 and its rare an older horse wins
* There has been 25 renewals since 1986
* Horses aged 3 have a 21-4 advantage in these races
* If at all possible I would prefer a 3 year old
* It may be more to do with exposure than age
* Last years winner was 4 but she had just 12 runs
* If you take the 25 renewals one thing is fascinating
* Horses with 13 or more career starts were 1-42
* I would avoid all horses with 13 or more runs
* I'd consider any older horse if she is lighter raced
* The following horses look too exposed
* TROPICAL PARADISE - THAI HAKU
* MAGIC EYE - DAWN ECLIPSE -PYRRHA
* COCHABAMBA looks outclassed
* ROCKATELLA looks unsafe and hard to read
* KHOR SHEED wouldnt me my first choice
* There are 3yo winners from Listed/Group races like her
* None came from 7f races though (0-30)
* That could be just a statistical blip but I dislike her draw
* SHARNBERRY also comes from a 7f conditions race
* DEVER DREAM comes from a 6f race
* I see her as too exposed with 12 runs to do that
* PERFECT TRIBUTE - I cant match her to a winner
* Not a negative but I prefer others

P o s s i b l e s

* CHACHAMAIDEE is hard to read
* She is not too exposed and must be respected
* Her profile is only average though
* RIMTH must be considered back at 7f
* He is very like the 1997 winner Dazzle
* Dazzle was a non stayer in a Guineas and won after a break
* RIMTH does have a nasty draw in my view
* She also has the longest absence so not completely convinced
* RHYTHM OF LIGHT - Similar to 2006 winner Red Evie
* My biggest problem with her is the draw in stall 17
* I think that's a very poor draw

S h o r t l i s t

* LAW OF THE RANGE - Outside chance like last years winner
* MEMORY - Serious runner but will she start ?
* She has refused at the start twice in 3 runs
* If she starts properly she could win this easily
* You will get 3-4 points bigger than she should be
* It comes with a risk you may not get a run for your money
* MAQAASID - Enough good arguments to shortlist
* The 1988 1998 and 2000 winners came from the same race
* They were lighter raced than she is

Selection

MAQAASID 5/1 Win Bet

If I had to go with a saver it would be on MEMORY
but I'd rather wait and see if she starts and them save
on her around 4/1. It's half the price but at least you
know you will get a run for your money and if she is
going to jump off and race she is the biggest threat.


E v e n i n g C a r d s



B A T H

Not much I can do with Bath especially as I want
to avoid all the handicaps over 5f161y as this is a
distance that causes me statistical headaches. The
first race is over that trip but a maiden and I think
the Racing Post Ratings point to UNCLE ROGER.


The 6.10 is a 5f Handicap. I must appreciate that
MISS FIREFLY was unlucky last time and that it
looks like she is running well but I ran her profile
as an exposed mare down in distance and found a
few 4 and 5 year olds doing but those aged 6 and
more like her had a miserable record and I'd want
to look elsewhere. MY METEOR is also down in
distance and I felt she had flaws in her profile as
well. I'd avoid this pair. WHAT KATIE DID fell
a little short of ideal. I think we should look for
better options. THE NAME IS FRANK looks a
far more solid option each way. I would also see
CRIMSON QUEEN as a positive as well and if a
very well handicapped LITTLE PERISHER can
cope with a drop in trip she has to be considered
as well. I just feel the favourite is unsafe here so
I suggest THE NAME IS FRANK Each Way. He
ran in the faster division of the same 6f handicap
Miss Firefly came from and I'd have made him a
shorter price. THE NAME IS FRANK e/w.



N E W M A R K E T


Not many races interest me here. The maiden at
6.20 is uncompetetive. I prefer GRIZZLE myself
from the market leaders and think he can win this
but the each way double would seem ideal here. It
is a matter of choice but I like GRIZZLE.


N e w m a r k e t 7.30

3/1 Sir Mozart, 7/1 Big Noise, 8/1 Hacienda
8/1 Hot Spark, 8/1 Tariq Too 10/1 Avon Lady
12/1 Saint Pierre, 14/1 Frognal 16/1 Dominium
16/1 Jake The Snake, 25/1 Plume.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-84 rated horses
* There are 484 similar races at this time of year
* The Draw could play a big part here
* This year Newmarket have 7 handicaps at 7f
* Thats 7 Handicaps with between 9 and 14 runners
* The 7 winners were drawn 12 8 8 12 10 12 10
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6 had a 0-47 record
* Small sample size so unsafe but a high draw is best
* DOMINIUM has to go drawn 1
* Wasnt keen on him aged 4 up in trip either
* Barney Curley trains SIR MOZART
* He does look well treated and he may well win
* I would personally avoid him with 1 run this year
* Especially as he is an 8yo quite an older age
* AVON LADY is a filly with 1 run that season
* Throw in a 93 day absence and she isnt for me
* I found a similar winner at Catterick in 2004
* This is a Grade 1 track though and I oppose her
* PLUME doesnt offer me enough
* JAKE THE SNAKE is weak aged 10 absent 44 days
* SAINT PIERRE has a weak profile
* He didnt do enough last time as a 4yo
* FROGNAL doesnt appeal from a claimer
* Not on a mark he hasnt won from before
* Not having his first run for a new stable
* HOT SPARK is 4 and was well beaten over 8f last time
* 4 year olds doing that with 13 or more runs struggled
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year were 0-32
* HOT SPARK only has 2 runs this year and looks wrong
* TARIQ TOO is 4 and has a month absence
* He has 1-2-3 runs this year and Class 3 form
* Horses aged 4 with 7 + runs and that profile are 0-37
* He needed a more recent run or more backclass
* Not a safe negative but he looks unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* HACIENDA has a poor draw in Stall 3 (net two)
* He provides me with a dilemma
* HACIENDA is statistically fine
* I backed him in April in the Thirsk Hunt Cup
* That race and others convinced me he doesnt stay 8f
* I had repeatedly said that on his last 6 runs all at 8f
* Now he finally drops to 7f and has a recent race
* I Just wish HACIENDA was drawn better

* BIG NOISE has a decent profile
* I backed him at Leicester last time
* He ran very well and was only beaten by a good horse
* He had previously caught the eye at Newmarket
* This horse in best in small fields
* 11 runners today is just about small enough

Selection

BIG NOISE 11/2 E/W

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