No Full Bet


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Todays Bets from the Message

3 Bets Today


Hereford 3.05
MISTER CHANCER 4/5
Win Bet


Warwick 3.50
TIMPO 5/2
Win Bet


Kempton 5.50 ABIGAILS ANGEL 7/2
Kempton 7.20 MATA HARI BLUE 3/1

Each Way Double

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS


A Bit scrappy today. Comments in about 15 races and there
is the usual mix of short and longer previews. This has been a complicated days racing over the years. Feels messy and I don't think I can do much more and never felt the message was going to be anything more than average at its best. I'd see today as scrappy and not one for a strong bet.

KEMPTON

I have looked at 4 races tonight at Kempon. I fancy mares
ABIGAILS ANGEL (5.50) and MATA HARI BLUE (7.50) especially with good recent runs. Half tempted to suggest a couple of win bets and an each way double on this pair. The odds about ABIGAILS ANGEL around 7/2 are a bit shorter than I wanted and probably just reflect her price. Perhaps a better option would just be the each way double. Its unlikely both will win but if they do then 20/1 is a fair reward for a bet that is still unlikely to come up. I did like those options.

HAYDOCK

Not an inspiring card here and never is and there was not a bet on the card that stood out to me as anything half decent

HEREFORD

I think MISTER CHANCER has a strong edge in the 3.05pm
Novice Hurdle and although short at 4/5 I think he should be too good for these. There is some pressure on his price and not much 4/5 to be honest. If you can get that he's backcable but if you can't then dont be afraid to turn him down or try and get the price in running.

WARWICK

The 3m5f Handicap Chase at 3.30pm is a small field stamina
sapping test and not my kind of race but I have TIMPO here
as having a far superior profile than anything else and in Line with all recent winners in being lightly raced. The horse is not easy to win and a bit luckless but I think he can win today.


YESTERDAY'S SUMMARY

Steady enough message. I just about finished level on the day. Not sure if I staked it well enough but it didnt lose and there were winners in the message. ETON FABLE started us off on the wrong foot only coming 4th. He could just as easily have been placed than come 4th but we lost out with 4 horses that dominated the race. Bit dissapointed with him but I think the Slow surface hurt him a bit and he just wasnt good enough. It came down to RARE SYMPHONY to rescue the main bet so pleasing to see her win. She did look in trouble for a while as you'd expect for a 4yo filly and normally I would'nt have bet one like her but she had a significant class advantage proven on the flat and it was her class and flat speed than combined with a very low mark that got her home and she could win a few more off her current rating as long as she keeps to 2m.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


WARWICK 2.20

11/8 Sweet Irony, 9/4 Faultless Feelings, 15/2 Captain Cool
10/1 Rossmore Lad, 11/1 Touz Master, 12/1 Mickytaker
12/1 Monbeg Dude, 33/1 Keltic Crisis, 33/1 Rebel High
40/1 Astroleo, 50/1 Tranquil River, 100/1 Remarkable Rocket.

Not easy to sort this 2m 5f Maiden Hurdle. I wasnt keen on
TOUZ MASTER or ROSSMORE LAD. There are not many good reasons to go with MICKYTAKER. My biggest problem
with FAULTLESS FEELINGS was his absence and because of
that I prefered SWEET IRONY of the two. All I can mention
about CAPTAIN COOL is I didnt like him on first look as he
was 4 and comes up from a 2m race but identical 4 year olds
with two runs and beaten similar distances last time had a 2-2 record. Statistically CAPTAIN COOL comes out surprisingly the best option here. He's unsafe but at least 16/1 + and forced to choose a selection it would either be SWEET IRONY in a each way double of CAPTAIN COOL as a small win bet.

HAYDOCK 2.40

6/4 Glencree, 11/4 Thumbs Up, 4/1 Humbie
5/1 Our Bob, 10/1 Gentleman Jeff.

* I have looked at all 2m Novice Handicap Chases in March
* 6 year olds coming from 2m Novice Chases were 1-11
* THUMBS UP has that profile but the winner was different
* He had fewer races but also more this year and a recent rin
* THUMBS UP didnt stand out to me
* HUMBIE comes out badly for me
* No winners from Novice Chases came down from 2m 5f
* I looked at all horses from Novice chases with under 9 runs
* Those without Graded Form struggled
* I found a 1-16 record and that winner didnt come down in trip
* GLENCREE comes from a Novice Chase without Graded form
* The only winners like that had more runs that season
* GENTLEMAN JEFF has a weak profile from a Novice Hurdle
* No winnes came that way and none were like him anyway
* OUR BOB has the most orthadox profile of these


HEREFORD 3.05

5/6 Mister Chancer, 5/4 Mr Moss, 12/1 Persian Forest
25/1 Radmores Oscar, 33/1 Court Gamble, 66/1 Countess Susy
66/1 Princess Zhukova.

March has seen over 300 of these Novice Hurdles around 2m 4f and I would avoid MR MOSS here. I looked at horses coming via Maiden Hurdles. Those with 1 run like him had a 1-47 record and that winner was not the same age and came from further. I think MISTER CHANCER has a much superior profile and should win.



HAYDOCK 3.15

5/2 Grand Diamond, 4/1 Master Fong, 9/2 Miereveld
5/1 Holoko Heights, 6/1 Bring Sweets, 8/1 Vivarini
11/1 Bay Central, 66/1 Royal Patriot.

* This is a Selling Hurdle and we have 47 similar races
* BAY CENTRAL is wrong from a Chase so lightly raced
* HOLOKO HEIGHTS fails similar angles
* VIVARINI is one to avoid down from over 3m
* I dont mind 4 year olds but todays dont feel right
* BRING SWEETS is 4 and I wasnt convinced about him
* MIERVELD is also 4 and from handicaps they score poorly
* MASTER FONG has a reasonable profile
* GRAND DIAMOND has a solid orthodox profile
* MASTER FONG each way could be an option


WARWICK 3.30

11/4 Arnold Layne, 100/30 Rudinero, 7/2 Timpo
11/2 Feeling Peckish, 6/1 Crack At Dawn, 12/1 Heezagrey.

* There are 40 similar 3m 5f Handicap Chases in March
* HEEZAGREY was beaten too far just 6 days ago
* CRACK AT DAWN is 10 and from a Novice Chase
* Beaten too far last time and short of runs this year
* Three winners came from Novice Handicap Chases
* FEELING PECKISH does that but none had his profile
* None were 7 year olds like him
* None were as exposed as he is either
* ARNOLD LAYNE hasnt won for a long time
* I found 1 winner like him and he is respected
* RUDINERO has a chance but isnt strong statistically
* Beaten a long way last time over a Marathon distance
* TIMPO has a strong profile
* Horses aged 8 from Handicap Chases
* Between 13 and 20 career starts
* No Graded form
* No runs in the previous 2 weeks
* Beaten last time out
* Carrying 11st 8lbs or more
* Similar horses had a 2-2 record
* TIMPO comes out well and has 6 chase starts
* The last 6 winners had no more than 14 Chase runs
* TIMPO would be my choice



HAYDOCK 3.50

100/30 Thanks For Coming, 5/1 Tobago Bay
11/2 Diklers Oscar, 7/1 Nicene Creed, 10/1 Los Nadis
10/1 Mad Moose, 10/1 Maska Pony, 10/1 Viva Colonia
14/1 Natural Action, 16/1 Amir Pasha, 16/1 First Stream
20/1 Glingerbank.

This race looks too hard and I am bailing out. Just looked at the favourite THANKS FOR COMING and felt he had a good
profile. In all similar races 5 year olds like him with 4 career starts that finished 2-3-4-5 in Novice Hurdles last time had a decent W W 2 W record from 4 horses like him. I see him as a more likely winner than TOBAGO BAY. I certainly would not want to bet DIKLERS OSCAR as a mare with just 2 races this season and a heavy defeat. NICENE CREED didnt come out that well either.

HEREFORD 4.15

Nothing has a safe profile here and all have questions to
answer. Best guess would be MASTER SOMERVILLE.


WARWICK 4.40

7/2 Veiled, 9/2 Here´s The Key, 5/1 Mayolynn
8/1 Laureate Des Loges, 10/1 Tsarinova, 12/1 Can´t Remember
12/1 Little Carmela, 12/1 Thedeboftheyear, 14/1 Bobbisox
16/1 Zepnove, 33/1 Daraz Rose.

* This is a Mares Handicap Hurdle over 2m 5f
* There are only 8 similar races at this time of year
* Far too small a sample size for any confident preview
* I'd argue you want between 5 and 20 career starts
* Horses aged 6 are best and a good last run has been usefull

VEILED doesnt interest me. She has only one run this season
and only 3 career starts. All winners had at least 5 career runs and more than 1 run that year. I looked at 34 of these Mares Handicaps in March. Thats 34 races at any distance and found horses with 3 runs like VEILED had a 0-23 record. Not a great statistic but it hasnt been done and there must be a good chance she is short on experience and I'd avoid her.

* MAYOLYNN comes from a Novice Handicap
* No 5 year old managed that
* DARAZ ROSE looks underraced this year
* ZEPNOVE has been absent too long
* BOBBISOX didnt do enough last time
* I feel the same with CAN´T REMEMBER
* Didnt see enough I liked in THEDEBOFTHEYEAR
* LITTLE CARMELA doesnt look good enough
* HERE´S THE KEY is probably shortlistable
* I didnt like a few things about her like her headgear

SHORTLIST

LAUREATE DES LOGES has a good profile but she hasnt
fullfilled her early potential and has clearly got a problem or two. TSARINOVA has a fair chance but I'd have rather had another couple of runs. I still see this pair as having a better chance than any other runners.


HEREFORD 4.50

Nasty little Handicap Hurdle. WELCOME STRANGER
appeals much more to be than JINKSY MINX as she is
a 4yo filly and with an absence anc coming from a 3yo
race. I like WELCOME STRANGER in that match bet
especially as he may not even be favourite. Not sure if
he is good enough to win the race though. There are a
few very well handicapped but hard to predict so this is
a race that may be too dangerous but liked a match bet.




HAYDOCK 5.00

11/8 Cantlow, 2/1 A Bridge Too Far, 11/2 Solis
12/1 Tahiti Pearl, 16/1 Katapult, 20/1 That´s Mine
25/1 Allbarkanobite, 25/1 The Musical Guy.

Tight little Novice Hurdle. I didnt see any strong
negatives or positives. I suspect one of the Three
main runners will win. SOLIS has perhaps the most
to prove of the three. CANTLOW won a Maiden
Hurdle last time and comes out well. Slightly better
was A BRIDGE TOO FAR and I'd go with him but
see him more as an each way double bet.



KEMPTON 5.50

3/1 Grey Boy, 4/1 Iguacu, 5/1 Abigails Angel
8/1 Love In The Park, 8/1 Nolecce, 10/1 Aine´s Delight
12/1 Majestueux, 14/1 Market Puzzle, 16/1 Double Fortune
20/1 Pictures, 25/1 Tt´s Dream, 50/1 Fast Elaine.

* IGACU - Negative from stall one
* I looked at Handicaps with 9 + runners at this distance
* Since before 2010 the last 54 Stall One horses lost
* The Following all had weak profiles
* DOUBLE FORTUNE - Horses from 3yo handicaps are weak
* MARKET PUZZLE - Another from a 3yo handicap
* FAST ELAINE - Absent too long
* TT´S DREAM may need another run this year
* PICTURES is a 4yo filly up in distance
* None were exposed like her or beaten as far as her last time
* AINE´S DELIGHT - Would prefer a more recent run
* MAJESTUEUX - Unsafe - May not have done enough last time

SHORTLIST

GREY BOY - Asking a lot aged 10 to win again up in trip
LOVE IN THE PARK - Happier if she'd run within 2 weeks
NOLECCE - 1 similar winner to him
ABIGAILS ANGEL - Decent profile

SELECTION

ABIGAILS ANGEL 4/1

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KEMPTON 6.20

3/1 Carr Hall, 7/2 Duneen Dream, 6/1 Petomic
8/1 Hecton Lad, 9/1 Vinces, 11/1 Shoot The Pot
12/1 Animator, 12/1 Dilys Maud, 14/1 Sligo All Star
16/1 Addikt, 25/1 Now.

NEGATIVE PROFILES

* NOW - SHOOT THE POT
* ADDIKT - SLIGO ALL STAR
* ANIMATOR may lack the fitness
* VINCES looks vulnerable with an absence here
* DILYS MAUD - Unsafe and probably didnt do enough
* PETOMIC has a mixture of problems adding up
* Steps up in trip - No recent run - High Weight and 6yo
* I couldn't match PETOMIC to a winner
* DUNEEN DREAM - Shaky profile but not out of it

SHORTLIST

CARR HALL - Younger horses are better after winning
HECTON LAD - Promised more than shows but considered

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KEMPTON 6.50

6/4 Tropical Beat, 100/30 Futurism, 11/2 Moresweets ´n Lace
7/1 Peachez, 8/1 Silk Lingerie, 10/1 Sevivon, 14/1 Roe Valley.

* PEACHEZ is a 3yo filly from a 3yo maiden
* Horses with that profile and 1 run like here were 0-5
* They finished 3 4 5 9 10
* SILK LINGERIE has the same profile
* I would have liked to see a winner with that profile
* MORESWEETS ´N LACE - I am neutral about her
* TROPICAL BEAT is a positive and fine
* FUTURISM is also a Positive
* Male 3yo's absent 4 + months from Nurseries won 4 races
* Those like him with 5-6 runs had a 3-12 record

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KEMPTON 7.20

4/1 Desert Strike, 9/2 Island Legend, 9/2 Kylladdie
6/1 Boragh Jamal, 7/1 Best Trip, 7/1 Italian Tom
12/1 Absa Lutte, 14/1 Bookiesindex Boy.

This is a 5f Handicap
All seem quite tightly matched
I didnt like BORAGH JAMAL much
Fillies aged 4 down in trip and 1 run since December
I ran KYLADDIE's profile and found a 1-12 record
Would have expected better than that to be honest
He is a bit exposed for a last time out 4yo winner
Looked at horses beaten 10 + lengths over 5f last time
Those aged 6 or more were 0-89
That makes BOOKIESINDEX BOY a negative
ITALIAN TOM is not like any winners either
DESERT STRIKE is the main Positive

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KEMPTON 7.50

100/30 Chantilly Jewel, 4/1 Jonny Ebeneezer
9/2 Mata Hari Blue, 6/1 Young Simon, 10/1 Boldinor
10/1 Durgan, 10/1 Lord Of The Reins, 12/1 Loyal Royal
14/1 Little Perisher, 16/1 Wellington Fair.

This is a 6f handicap. Some of the horses I'd see as unfit and unsafe areWELLINGTON FAIR -BOLDINOR and DURGAN.
I looked at every Handicap during the All Weather season at every distance and in Class 6-7. Horses aged 11 absent over a Month had a 0-65 record so JONNY EBENEEZER who is 12 and absent 55 days is out. LORD OF THE REINS is 7 exposed and 7 with no recent run coming from 5f. No winners had that profile. LITTLE PERISHER did not do enough last time. I see CHANTILLY JEWEL as unsafe. She's an older Mare and as she lacks a recent run and decent backclass I think she is vulnerable and all similar winners had either that recent race or backclass.
YOUNG SIMON is an option but he'd be much better off with
a recent race. LOYAL ROYAL lost by so far last time he has
to be unsafe. MATA HARI BLUE has the strongest profile for
me as a mare in from and with a recent race.

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