1 Bet Today


L i n g f i e l d 1.40

GRUDGE 5/4

Win Bet



I detest putting short priced horses up as bets but I am
doing this today. It is quite rare for me to to do this so
not happy about it but GRUDGE is not the favourite in
this 4 runner race and given the prices I have to risk it.

The favourite is rated a 12lbs better horse than Grudge
but has raced once in 267 days and raced badly and has
just one run this season. In contrast GRUDGE has now
had 14 runs this year and must have a fitness edge. He
looks a good thing to me. Losing bets at short prices
can be embarrasing but I think it's outrageous that he's
not the favourite and at odds against should be a bet.

Its a shorter message and reads like a part time one as
well. I have only done the races I liked and have left a
lot on the cutting room floor. I have a decent profile in
NUMERAL in the 2.10 at Lingfield and he was another
option. Much harder race though and he does have more
to do and prove he is as strong left handed.

Today its a rapid fire Shoot out between two horses in
GRUDGE and Where´s Reiley with two rank outsiders
who will hopefully know their place and finish behind.
It's a fascinating battle between Class and Fitness and
on this occasion it has to be GRUDGE and if he loses
I hold my hands up tomorrow and say I am astonished.



M e s s a g e T h o u g h t s

Not a long message today. I have nothing I want to do
at Hexham or Leicester. I have just picked a few races
at Lingfield and Kempton that I quite liked. Skipped a
few of the races I didn't get enough time on or lacked
anything to say in and it's turned out to be a short and
selective message as can often happen on a Wednesday.


T u e d a y 's R e v i e w

A little dissapointed with yesterdays results. It was no
disaster and I started off with an each way 3rd at good
price shortlisting the winner as a bet that I highlighted.
Another winner followed. Then there was nothing else
the last 4 races and the message died a bit and fell flat.
The earlier results were not enough to steer it to safety
and the last four races turned a potentially exciting day
into an unimpressive and ordinary day.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



L i n g f i e l d 12.40

11/8 Cristal Gem, 7/4 The Name Is Don
8/1 Princess Kaiulani, 10/1 Sea Anemone
10/1 Spiders Of Spring, 33/1 Joe M.

Not many 7f Claimers around for 2 year olds at this
time of year. I count about 16 of these races and it's
highly significant that all 16 winners had at least 5
career starts. Both winners of this race had 9 and 10
runs. I see a strong edge to experience here. It is why
I'm against Sea Anemone and Princess Kaiulani from
the bigger priced horses. SPIDERS OF SPRING looks
too inexperienced as well and CRISTAL GEM could
also be at a disadvantage with just 4 runs. I can only
consider CRISTAL GEM or THE NAME IS DON in
this race. In CRISTAL GEM's favour is form that is
probably superior to the rest. He has earnt the right
to be favourite but I see THE NAME IS DON as an
obvious match for a 2yo claimer. It is a Small field
so maybe it will be tactical but THE NAME IS DON
has much more experience than every other runner
and I feel he is the natural bet in the race and despite
only 6 runners I would suggest we bet him each way
as we get 1/4 the odds and not many can be fancied.

Selection

THE NAME IS DON 3/1

Each Way




L i n g f i e l d 1.10

11/4 Ezra Church, 7/2 Finefrenzyrolling
5/1 Dvinsky, 5/1 Pipers Piping, 5/1 Stevie Gee
10/1 Timpanist, 14/1 Stoppers, 50/1 Majestical.

This is a 7f Claiming race for all aged horses. Every
7f claimer at this time of year went to horses with a
run within 10 weeks and STOPPERS has been absent
too long for comfort. I see MAJESTICAL as out of
his depth. It's hard to see 4yo filly like TIMPANIST
overcoming a very heavy recent defeat. I want to be
against EZRA CHURCH. He was beaten a long way
last time out but that was his first run since last May
and there will be fitter horses here and he did run far
below market expectations last time out. DVINSKY
is 10 years old and comes from a 6f race. I could not
find any winners older than 6 coming from a 6f race.
FINEFRENZYROLLING has a small chance but not
that keen on this 3yo filly. She's yet to win any race
which damages her profile. I can't rule her out but it
is a competetive seller and I don't want to bet a 3yo
filly thats had only 1 race in the last 114 days. I am
shortlisting two horses as I dont like the others here.

* STEVIE GEE - Shortlistable with a recent run
* Whether he did enough 2 days ago is the issue

* PIPERS PIPING - Has the safest trouble free profile
* If 8 horses run I see him as the safest bet each way
* Not totally convinced as others have more backclass
* I don't like my alternatives enough so go with him

Selection - PIPERS PIPING



L i n g f i e l d 1.40

10/11 Where´s Reiley, 6/4 Grudge,
16/1 Evening Pinot, 16/1 Lady Royal Oak.

This is a 5f selling race. We only have 4 similar races
at this time of year. Hardly enough to get good angles
from. I think EVENING PINOT is too inexperienced
and LADY ROYAL OAK as outclassed. For me there
is a direct choice here in GRUDGE as he is the Fittest

* WHERE´S REILEY is rated 12lbs higher
* He is the better horse of the two
* I would question whether he is fit enough today
* He has raced once in 267 days
* That race 15 days ago at Southwell was poor
* He finished last and was clearly a long way from fit
* He was being whipped before the bend over 6f
* Hanging to his right he looked unlikely to win soon

Go back to the start of the flat season in March nine
months ago. Consider that WHERE´S REILEY raced
just once since than and that was his poor run just 15
days ago. Having just one race in all that time has to
leave him vulnerable. I think this race is clearly about
whether GRUDGE can beat WHERE´S REILEY as a
horse rated 12lbs better than him and I think he can.

We know WHERE´S REILEY has raced only once in
267 days and badly. Since the start of the Flat season
GRUDGE has raced 14 times. He may be 12lbs inferior
but 14 races compared to just one race tells me he has
to be the bet. Surely that has to give GRUDGE a huge
conditioning advantage and a fitness edge that I think
he ought to be able to profit from it and win this race.


Selection - GRUDGE




L i n g f i e l d 2.10

7/2 Numeral, 9/2 Amitola, 11/2 Wilfred Pickles
10/1 Prince Of Burma, 12/1 Chilli Green, Ivory Silk
12/1 Judd Street, 14/1 Chevise, 14/1 Time Medicean
14/1 Viva Ronaldo, 14/1 Young Dottie
16/1 Titan Triumph, 20/1 Reposer, 33/1 Ghostwing.

This is a very competetive 7f handicap. I hope it's
as straight forward as my stats suggest but I doubt it.
No draw advantage here I can see which makes it a
bit harder. Listed by Negatives and shortlist below.

* WILFRED PICKLES - Vulnerable with 1 run since July
* GHOSTWING - Vulnerable with 1 run since June
* JUDD STREET - No horse aged 7 + came from 6f
* CHILLI GREEN - No filly won absent so long
* REPOSER - Bad profile well beaten as 3yo last time
* TITAN TRIUMPH - Not running well enough
* TIME MEDICEAN - Weak from 5f with absence
* VIVA RONALDO - Long absence compounds issues
* IVORY SILK - 6yo Mare. Unsafe. Wanted recent run.
* YOUNG DOTTIE - Unsafe as mare winning last time
* AMITOLA - Asking a lot for a 4yo filly to win again

S h o r t l i s t

* PRINCE OF BURMA - Not right but shortlisted
* He has 7 runs and 5 this year and is a 3yo
* I'd prefer 9-12 runs and 8 + this year to be excited
* There is a 3yo with a better profile but he's respected

* CHEVISE - Found an exposed 3yo filly win from 8f
* I dont think she will win but 20/1 is too generous

* NUMERAL - Strong profile
* Male horses aged 3
* Coming from a 7f handicap
* Running within a Month
* Beaten under 6 lengths last time
* Not winning last time
* Between 9 and 12 career starts
* At least 4 runs this season
* There were 8 horses with this profile
* They finishied W W L W 3 W 4 W

Selection

NUMERAL

I would like more proven form going left handed from
NUMERAL but I feel his profile entitles him to be the
selection. Very competetive but he appeals the most.



K e m p t o n 4.20

5/4 Quizzed, 2/1 Haafhd Handsome, 13/2 Fleur De La Vie
8/1 Silent Energy, 9/1 San Mambo, 25/1 King´s Wharf
33/1 Pack Of Cards, 40/1 Feb Thirtyfirst, 50/1 Totom Chief.

This is a 2yo Auction Maiden over 10f. There are just 3
past renewals of this race and none elsewhere so its not a
stats race. No strong arguments can sort this especially as
QUIZZED and HAAFHD HANDSOME have been absent
a fair time and come from the same race back in October
and there can't be much between them. It may come down
to who stays best. HAAFHD HANDSOME is by Haafhd a
sire whose 2 year olds have not proven they stay beyond
a mile yet. So far all 13 have lost at 9f and more. That's
a problem for QUIZZED as well as her sires 2 year olds
have a 0-24 record at 9f and more. The dilemma here is
whether its sensible to risk any alternatives as most have
unconvincing profiles or were well beaten last time. It is
a leap of faith to risk FLEUR DE LA VIE well beaten at
Kempton with no obvious excuse. I would see her as the
ideal place bet in a split stake bet. She ought to have the
ability to place and that could be the best strategy when
the stronger runners have stamina doubts. For the other
part of the bet I just prefer QUIZZED

Selection

Split Stake Bet

QUIZZED Win Bet 11/8
FLEUR DE LA VIE Place Bet 4/5




K e m p t o n 4.50

4/1 Songburst, 13/2 Epernay, 13/2 True To Form
8/1 Ellemujie, 8/1 Veroon, 8/1 Zebrano
10/1 Emerald Wilderness, 12/1 Hidden Glory
12/1 Scamperdale, 14/1

Lyric Poet, 14/1 Uphold
16/1 Classically, 20/1 Big Bay, 25/1 Bengal Tiger.

* BENGAL TIGER - Nothing to like
* ZEBRANO - Not fit enoough for a career high mark
* UPHOLD - Hammered in Claimer. Not right profile
* SCAMPERDALE - No winners from 12f claimers
* HIDDEN GLORY - No similar 4yo won after bad run
* BIG BAY - Lots of holes in his profile. Unsafe.
* VEROON - Career high mark after a poor last run
* LYRIC POET - Not satisfied he is fit
* EMERALD WILDERNESS - Unsafe and not impressed
* I dont see enough I like from a dodgy draw

S h o r t l i s t

* CLASSICALLY - All similar horses ran closer last time
* I wouldn't rule him out though
* EPERNAY - Not quite right but there are positives
* Shortlistable but I am not totally convinced
* TRUE TO FORM - Must be respected in great form
* No winners came from sellers like him though
* SONGBURST - I like his profile with reservations
* Would be considerably better with a run in 2 weeks
* His 32 day absence takes the shine off his profile
* ELLEMUJIE - Enough to consider seriously
* ELLEMUJIE has less doubts than any other horse

Selection

ELLEMUJIE 5/1 Each Way



K e m p t o n 5.20

15/8 Sketchy Evidence, 5/2 Amber Heights
7/2 Queen Of Heaven, 8/1 Abadejo, 12/1 Lovat Lane
16/1 Patience, 16/1 Serial Sinner, 25/1 Miakora.

This is a 6f Maiden. It's for all aged horses but we have
only 3 year olds running. No glaring negatives but there
is much better record from experienced horses. I wasn't
convinced about SKETCHY EVIDENCE with just one
race. I don't want QUEEN OF HEAVEN as an unraced
filly. The best profile is AMBER HEIGHTS. It doesn't
seem enough that she is rated only 60 as it's not a high
standard but I ran her profile as a 3yo filly from her 6f
handicap with 7 runs and found a promising 1-1 record.
Given the frame of the race I have to argue he looks a
good each way bet even at 5/2. He also looks a splendid
each way double option as well for those that dont have
serious misgivings about such bets. If thats the case the
selection here is AMBER HEIGHTS.

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